Lack of association between PCK1 polymorphisms and obesity, physical activity, and fitness in European Youth Heart Study (EYHS)

Phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase-1 (PCK1) is the rate-limiting enzyme in the hepatic gluconeogenic pathway. Studies have shown that overexpression of Pck1 in mice results in obesity-related traits and higher levels of physical activity (PA). Therefore, our aims were to investigate whether common genetic variation in the PCK1 gene influences obesity-related traits, PA, and fitness, and to examine whether PA and fitness attenuate the influence of the PCK1 polymorphisms on obesity in children. Analyses were undertaken on data from Danish and Estonian children (958 boys and 1,104 girls) from the European Youth Heart Study (EYHS), a school-based, cross-sectional study of children (mean ± s.d. age: 9.6 ± 0.4 years) and adolescents (15.5 ± 0.5 years). We genotyped eight polymorphisms that captured the common genetic variations in the PCK1 gene. The association between the PCK1 polymorphisms and BMI, waist circumference (WC), sum of four skinfolds, PA, and fitness was tested using an additive model adjusted for age, age-group, gender, maturity, and country. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in the model. None of the polymorphisms were significantly associated with BMI, WC, sum of four skinfolds, PA, and fitness, and also with the risk of being overweight or obese (P > 0.05). The interactions between the polymorphisms and age-group, gender, PA, and fitness were not statistically significant. This is the first study to comprehensively examine the association of PCK1 polymorphisms with obesity, PA, and fitness. Despite strong evidence from animal studies, our study in the EYHS cohort failed to identify an association of PCK1 polymorphisms with obesity, PA, and fitness.

Causal relationships vs. emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Global controls on month-by-month fractional burnt area (2000–2005) were investigated by fitting a generalised linear model (GLM) to Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) data, with 11 predictor variables representing vegetation, climate, land use and potential ignition sources. Burnt area is shown to increase with annual net primary production (NPP), number of dry days, maximum temperature, grazing-land area, grass/shrub cover and diurnal temperature range, and to decrease with soil moisture, cropland area and population density. Lightning showed an apparent (weak) negative influence, but this disappeared when pure seasonal-cycle effects were taken into account. The model predicts observed geographic and seasonal patterns, as well as the emergent relationships seen when burnt area is plotted against each variable separately. Unimodal relationships with mean annual temperature and precipitation, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are reproduced too, and are thus shown to be secondary consequences of correlations between different controls (e.g. high NPP with high precipitation; low NPP with low population density and GDP). These findings have major implications for the design of global fire models, as several assumptions in current models – most notably, the widely assumed dependence of fire frequency on ignition rates – are evidently incorrect.

Global patterns of plant root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi explained by climate and soil chemistry

Aim Most vascular plants on Earth form mycorrhizae, a symbiotic relationship between plants and fungi. Despite the broad recognition of the importance of mycorrhizae for global carbon and nutrient cycling, we do not know how soil and climate variables relate to the intensity of colonization of plant roots by mycorrhizal fungi. Here we quantify the global patterns of these relationships. Location Global. Methods Data on plant root colonization intensities by the two dominant types of mycorrhizal fungi world-wide, arbuscular (4887 plant species in 233 sites) and ectomycorrhizal fungi (125 plant species in 92 sites), were compiled from published studies. Data for climatic and soil factors were extracted from global datasets. For a given mycorrhizal type, we calculated at each site the mean root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi across all potentially mycorrhizal plant species found at the site, and subjected these data to generalized additive model regression analysis with environmental factors as predictor variables. Results We show for the first time that at the global scale the intensity of plant root colonization by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi strongly relates to warm-season temperature, frost periods and soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, and is highest at sites featuring continental climates with mild summers and a high availability of soil nitrogen. In contrast, the intensity of ectomycorrhizal infection in plant roots is related to soil acidity, soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and seasonality of precipitation, and is highest at sites with acidic soils and relatively constant precipitation levels. Main conclusions We provide the first quantitative global maps of intensity of mycorrhizal colonization based on environmental drivers, and suggest that environmental changes will affect distinct types of mycorrhizae differently. Future analyses of the potential effects of environmental change on global carbon and nutrient cycling via mycorrhizal pathways will need to take into account the relationships discovered in this study.

A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation

In numerical weather prediction, parameterisations are used to simulate missing physics in the model. These can be due to a lack of scientific understanding or a lack of computing power available to address all the known physical processes. Parameterisations are sources of large uncertainty in a model as parameter values used in these parameterisations cannot be measured directly and hence are often not well known; and the parameterisations themselves are also approximations of the processes present in the true atmosphere. Whilst there are many efficient and effective methods for combined state/parameter estimation in data assimilation (DA), such as state augmentation, these are not effective at estimating the structure of parameterisations. A new method of parameterisation estimation is proposed that uses sequential DA methods to estimate errors in the numerical models at each space-time point for each model equation. These errors are then fitted to pre-determined functional forms of missing physics or parameterisations that are based upon prior information. We applied the method to a one-dimensional advection model with additive model error, and it is shown that the method can accurately estimate parameterisations, with consistent error estimates. Furthermore, it is shown how the method depends on the quality of the DA results. The results indicate that this new method is a powerful tool in systematic model improvement.

A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Are we predicting the actual or apparent distribution of temperate marine fishes?

Planning for resilience is the focus of many marine conservation programs and initiatives. These efforts aim to inform conservation strategies for marine regions to ensure they have inbuilt capacity to retain biological diversity and ecological function in the face of global environmental change – particularly changes in climate and resource exploitation. In the absence of direct biological and ecological information for many marine species, scientists are increasingly using spatially-explicit, predictive-modeling approaches. Through the improved access to multibeam sonar and underwater video technology these models provide spatial predictions of the most suitable regions for an organism at resolutions previously not possible. However, sensible-looking, well-performing models can provide very different predictions of distribution depending on which occurrence dataset is used. To examine this, we construct species distribution models for nine temperate marine sedentary fishes for a 25.7 km2 study region off the coast of southeastern Australia. We use generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM) and maximum entropy (MAXENT) to build models based on co-located occurrence datasets derived from two underwater video methods (i.e. baited and towed video) and fine-scale multibeam sonar based seafloor habitat variables. Overall, this study found that the choice of modeling approach did not considerably influence the prediction of distributions based on the same occurrence dataset. However, greater dissimilarity between model predictions was observed across the nine fish taxa when the two occurrence datasets were compared (relative to models based on the same dataset). Based on these results it is difficult to draw any general trends in regards to which video method provides more reliable occurrence datasets. Nonetheless, we suggest predictions reflecting the species apparent distribution (i.e. a combination of species distribution and the probability of detecting it). Consequently, we also encourage researchers and marine managers to carefully interpret model predictions.

Use of terrestrial habitats by burrow-nesting seabirds in south-eastern Australia

The size and growth of seabird populations are believed to be regulated, in part, by the availability and quality of suitable breeding habitat. Global climate change is predicted to affect coastal habitats and may, therefore, have important consequences for the terrestrial breeding habitat of seabirds and hence seabird populations. The present study assessed use of breeding habitat in the four most abundant species of seabird breeding in south-eastern Australia using a generalised additive mixed-modelling approach. Habitat characteristics were measured on 13 islands in winter and summer, 2008-11. Burrows of the four species were associated with one or more habitat parameters, potentially explained by predator avoidance, physical requirements and possibly by interspecific competition. Whereas the habitat characteristics used by each species showed broad interspecific overlap, there was strong divergence, and the four species typically occupied different nesting sites within breeding areas. Information on the proportion of available habitat used and the influence of breeding habitat on reproductive success would enhance current understanding of what constitutes optimal breeding habitat as well as the role of interspecific competition in this assemblage of seabirds.

Classification of healthcare data using genetic fuzzy logic system and wavelets

Healthcare plays an important role in promoting the general health and well-being of people around the world. The difficulty in healthcare data classification arises from the uncertainty and the high-dimensional nature of the medical data collected. This paper proposes an integration of fuzzy standard additive model (SAM) with genetic algorithm (GA), called GSAM, to deal with uncertainty and computational challenges. GSAM learning process comprises three continual steps: rule initialization by unsupervised learning using the adaptive vector quantization clustering, evolutionary rule optimization by GA and parameter tuning by the gradient descent supervised learning. Wavelet transformation is employed to extract discriminative features for high-dimensional datasets. GSAM becomes highly capable when deployed with small number of wavelet features as its computational burden is remarkably reduced. The proposed method is evaluated using two frequently-used medical datasets: the Wisconsin breast cancer and Cleveland heart disease from the UCI Repository for machine learning. Experiments are organized with a five-fold cross validation and performance of classification techniques are measured by a number of important metrics: accuracy, F-measure, mutual information and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results demonstrate the superiority of the GSAM compared to other machine learning methods including probabilistic neural network, support vector machine, fuzzy ARTMAP, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. The proposed approach is thus helpful as a decision support system for medical practitioners in the healthcare practice.

Indices for cashmere fleece competition and across farm comparisons: The role of staple length in identifying goats of higher cashmere production

A single focus on mean fibre diameter (MFD, μm) as the definition of cashmere quality overlooks the effects of fibre length, softness and fibre curvature on cashmere processing, textile quality and consumer acceptance. Many farmers overlook the importance of cashmere staple length (SL, cm) in their fleece assessments. We aimed to determine the importance of SL in comparison with MFD when evaluating cashmere production and to identify how across farm comparisons of cashmere fleeces can be objectively undertaken. A sample of 1244 commercial cashmere fleeces from goats originating from many Australian farms was used. Least squares models, relating the logarithm of clean cashmere production (CCMwt, g) to MFD and SL, were fitted. Six years of data from the Australian cashmere industry between farm fleece competitions were analysed to determine the relation between CCMwt and MFD. In the research flocks, adjusting CCMwt of individual goats across farms for MFD only accounted for 2% of the variance, whereas SL accounted for 39% of the variance. The least squares additive model involving only SL was: log10(CCMwt)=1.570+0.06010×SL. Thus CCMwt was proportional to: 100.06010×SL=1.1484SL. It was appropriate to adjust CCMwt for SL by a factor 1/1.1484(SL-SL0) where SL0 is a standard SL of 7.5cm. The between farm index for cashmere weight equals: cleancashmerestaplelengthindex=2.823×CCMwt/1.1484SL. For industry fleece competitions, regression analysis indicated that there was no association between cashmere production and MFD (P=0.81), similar to the research data. Adjusting CCMwt for MFD in across farm comparison and fleece competitions appears to be ineffective. For farm comparisons and in fleece competitions it is important to assess cashmere SL. The use of the Clean Cashmere Staple Length Index will provide a more robust comparison of cashmere productivity between farms as it is an indirect indicator of desirable skin secondary follicle development. The results have application in development projects where obtaining a cashmere MFD test is costly or unavailable. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Hierarchical gene selection and genetic fuzzy system for cancer microarray data classification

This paper introduces a novel approach to gene selection based on a substantial modification of analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The modified AHP systematically integrates outcomes of individual filter methods to select the most informative genes for microarray classification. Five individual ranking methods including t-test, entropy, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Wilcoxon and signal to noise ratio are employed to rank genes. These ranked genes are then considered as inputs for the modified AHP. Additionally, a method that uses fuzzy standard additive model (FSAM) for cancer classification based on genes selected by AHP is also proposed in this paper. Traditional FSAM learning is a hybrid process comprising unsupervised structure learning and supervised parameter tuning. Genetic algorithm (GA) is incorporated in-between unsupervised and supervised training to optimize the number of fuzzy rules. The integration of GA enables FSAM to deal with the high-dimensional-low-sample nature of microarray data and thus enhance the efficiency of the classification. Experiments are carried out on numerous microarray datasets. Results demonstrate the performance dominance of the AHP-based gene selection against the single ranking methods. Furthermore, the combination of AHP-FSAM shows a great accuracy in microarray data classification compared to various competing classifiers. The proposed approach therefore is useful for medical practitioners and clinicians as a decision support system that can be implemented in the real medical practice.

Fuzzy system with tabu search learning for classification of motor imagery data

This paper introduces an approach to classify EEG signals using wavelet transform and a fuzzy standard additive model (FSAM) with tabu search learning mechanism. Wavelet coefficients are ranked based on statistics of the Wilcoxon test. The most informative coefficients are assembled to form a feature set that serves as inputs to the tabu-FSAM. Two benchmark datasets, named Ia and Ib, downloaded from the brain-computer interface (BCI) competition II are employed for the experiments. Classification performance is evaluated using accuracy, mutual information, Gini coefficient and F-measure. Widely-used classifiers, including feedforward neural network, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbours, ensemble learning Adaboost and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, are also implemented for comparisons. The proposed tabu-FSAM method considerably dominates the competitive classifiers, and outperforms the best performance on the Ia and Ib datasets reported in the BCI competition II.

EEG signal analysis for BCI application using fuzzy system

An approach to EEG signal classification for brain-computer interface (BCI) application using fuzzy standard additive model is introduced in this paper. The Wilcoxon test is employed to rank wavelet coefficients. Top ranking wavelets are used to form a feature set that serves as inputs to the fuzzy classifiers. Experiments are carried out using two benchmark datasets, Ia and Ib, downloaded from the BCI competition II. Prevalent classifiers including feedforward neural network, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbours, ensemble learning Adaboost and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system are also implemented for comparisons. Experimental results show the dominance of the proposed method against competing approaches.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.

Progression of articular and extraarticular damage in oligoarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)