Model-Based Contrastive Explanations for XAIP: Towards a General Model and Prototype

Planning is an important sub-field of artificial intelligence (AI) focusing on letting intelligent agents deliberate on the most adequate course of action to attain their goals. Thanks to the recent boost in the number of critical domains and systems which exploit planning for their internal procedures, there is an increasing need for planning systems to become more transparent and trustworthy. Along this line, planning systems are now required to produce not only plans but also explanations about those plans, or the way they were attained. To address this issue, a new research area is emerging in the AI panorama: eXplainable AI (XAI), within which explainable planning (XAIP) is a pivotal sub-field. As a recent domain, XAIP is far from mature. No consensus has been reached in the literature about what explanations are, how they should be computed, and what they should explain in the first place. Furthermore, existing contributions are mostly theoretical, and software implementations are rarely more than preliminary. To overcome such issues, in this thesis we design an explainable planning framework bridging the gap between theoretical contributions from literature and software implementations. More precisely, taking inspiration from the state of the art, we develop a formal model for XAIP, and the software tool enabling its practical exploitation. Accordingly, the contribution of this thesis is four-folded. First, we review the state of the art of XAIP, supplying an outline of its most significant contributions from the literature. We then generalise the aforementioned contributions into a unified model for XAIP, aimed at supporting model-based contrastive explanations. Next, we design and implement an algorithm-agnostic library for XAIP based on our model. Finally, we validate our library from a technological perspective, via an extensive testing suite. Furthermore, we assess its performance and usability through a set of benchmarks and end-to-end examples.

The Crystal-t Algorithm: A New Approach To Calculate The Sle Of Lipidic Mixtures Presenting Solid Solutions.

Lipidic mixtures present a particular phase change profile highly affected by their unique crystalline structure. However, classical solid-liquid equilibrium (SLE) thermodynamic modeling approaches, which assume the solid phase to be a pure component, sometimes fail in the correct description of the phase behavior. In addition, their inability increases with the complexity of the system. To overcome some of these problems, this study describes a new procedure to depict the SLE of fatty binary mixtures presenting solid solutions, namely the Crystal-T algorithm. Considering the non-ideality of both liquid and solid phases, this algorithm is aimed at the determination of the temperature in which the first and last crystal of the mixture melts. The evaluation is focused on experimental data measured and reported in this work for systems composed of triacylglycerols and fatty alcohols. The liquidus and solidus lines of the SLE phase diagrams were described by using excess Gibbs energy based equations, and the group contribution UNIFAC model for the calculation of the activity coefficients of both liquid and solid phases. Very low deviations of theoretical and experimental data evidenced the strength of the algorithm, contributing to the enlargement of the scope of the SLE modeling.

Biased Random-key Genetic Algorithms For The Winner Determination Problem In Combinatorial Auctions.

Abstract In this paper, we address the problem of picking a subset of bids in a general combinatorial auction so as to maximize the overall profit using the first-price model. This winner determination problem assumes that a single bidding round is held to determine both the winners and prices to be paid. We introduce six variants of biased random-key genetic algorithms for this problem. Three of them use a novel initialization technique that makes use of solutions of intermediate linear programming relaxations of an exact mixed integer-linear programming model as initial chromosomes of the population. An experimental evaluation compares the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms with the standard mixed linear integer programming formulation, a specialized exact algorithm, and the best-performing heuristics proposed for this problem. The proposed algorithms are competitive and offer strong results, mainly for large-scale auctions.

Full threshold vs. Swedish interactive threshold algorithm (SITA) em pacientes glaucomatosos submetidos à perimetria computadorizada pela primeira vez

PURPOSE: To compare the Full Threshold (FT) and SITA Standard (SS) strategies in glaucomatous patients undergoing automated perimetry for the first time. METHODS: Thirty-one glaucomatous patients who had never undergone perimetry underwent automated perimetry (Humphrey, program 30-2) with both FT and SS on the same day, with an interval of at least 15 minutes. The order of the examination was randomized, and only one eye per patient was analyzed. Three analyses were performed: a) all the examinations, regardless of the order of application; b) only the first examinations; c) only the second examinations. In order to calculate the sensitivity of both strategies, the following criteria were used to define abnormality: glaucoma hemifield test (GHT) outside normal limits, pattern standard deviation (PSD) <5%, or a cluster of 3 adjacent points with p<5% at the pattern deviation probability plot. RESULTS: When the results of all examinations were analyzed regardless of the order in which they were performed, the number of depressed points with p<0.5% in the pattern deviation probability map was significantly greater with SS (p=0.037), and the sensitivities were 87.1% for SS and 77.4% for FT (p=0.506). When only the first examinations were compared, there were no statistically significant differences regarding the number of depressed points, but the sensitivity of SS (100%) was significantly greater than that obtained with FT (70.6%) (p=0.048). When only the second examinations were compared, there were no statistically significant differences regarding the number of depressed points, and the sensitivities of SS (76.5%) and FT (85.7%) (p=0.664). CONCLUSION: SS may have a higher sensitivity than FT in glaucomatous patients undergoing automated perimetry for the first time. However, this difference tends to disappear in subsequent examinations.

The Southern Brazilian shelf: general characteristics, quaternary evolution and sediment distribution

Extending from latitude 34ºS to 22ºS the Southern Brazilian shelf constitutes the only part of the Brazilian shelf with a subtropical to temperate environment. The studies on the different geological aspects of the area began in the 1960's and have recently been reassessed after studies related to the determination of the Economic Exclusive Zone. In terms of morphology, the Southern Brazilian shelf may be divided into three sectors, the São Paulo Bight, the Florianópolis-Mostardas Sector and the Rio Grande Cone, characterized by conspicuous differences in terms of geological determining factors, bathymetry, declivities and the presence of canyons and channels. Despite the existence of hundreds of radiocarbon datings the sea level changes curve of southern Brazil during the Last Glacial Cycle is still a matter of debate. A recent controversy on the Middle and late Holocene sea level changes curve raised the question of the amplitude of the oscillations which occurred in the period. Also, a few but relatively consistent radiocarbon datings suggest the occurrence of a high sea level during Isotope Stage 3. In terms of sedimentary cover the Southern Brazilian shelf exhibits a very strong hydrodynamic control, both latitudinal and bathymetrical. The sector southward from 25ºS is characterized by the influence of the plume of water carrying sediments originating from the Río de La Plata. Actually its presence is conspicuous up to 28ºS, with the area between this latitude and 25ºS constituting a transitional zone. In terms of bathymetry the outer shelf is marked by the "floor-polisher" effect of the Brazil Current, which is responsible for the maintenance of a relict facies in areas deeper than 100 meters.

Estimating HIV-1 incidence using the serologic testing algorithm for recent HIV infections at HIV counseling and testing centers in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

The network of HIV counseling and testing centers in São Paulo, Brazil is a major source of data used to build epidemiological profiles of the client population. We examined HIV-1 incidence from November 2000 to April 2001, comparing epidemiological and socio-behavioral data of recently-infected individuals with those with long-standing infection. A less sensitive ELISA was employed to identify recent infection. The overall incidence of HIV-1 infection was 0.53/100/year (95% CI: 0.31-0.85/100/year): 0.77/100/year for males (95% CI: 0.42-1.27/100/year) and 0.22/100/ year (95% CI: 0.05-0.59/100/year) for females. Overall HIV-1 prevalence was 3.2% (95% CI: 2.8-3.7%), being 4.0% among males (95% CI: 3.3-4.7%) and 2.1% among females (95% CI: 1.6-2.8%). Recent infections accounted for 15% of the total (95% CI: 10.2-20.8%). Recent infection correlated with being younger and male (p = 0.019). Therefore, recent infection was more common among younger males and older females.

Electrocardiographic study on geriatric dogs undergoing general anesthesia with isoflurane

The purpose of this study was to clarify the degree of influence of anesthetic agents commonly used during anesthesia on the heart conduction systems of geriatric dogs, with or without the presence of electrocardiographic changes in the pre-anesthetic electrocardiogram and also to determine the possible causes of ST-segment and T-wave changes during anesthesia, by monitoring ventilation and oxygenation. 36 geriatric dogs were evaluated. In addition to electrocardiographic evaluation, the pre-anesthetic study included serum levels of urea, creatinine, total protein, albumin and electrolytes. The pre-anesthetic medication consisted of acepromazine (0.05mg kg-1) in association with meperidine (3.0mg kg-1) by IM injection. Anesthesia was induced with propofol (3.0 to 5.0mg kg-1) by IV injection and maintained with isoflurane in 100% oxygen. During the anesthesia, the animals were monitored by continued computerized electrocardiogram. Systemic blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, end-tidal carbon dioxide, partial pressure of carbon dioxide in arterial blood, arterial oxygen saturation, partial pressure of arterial oxygen and oxygen saturation of hemoglobin were closely monitored. During maintenance anesthesia, normal sinus rhythm was more common (78%). ST-segment and T-wave changes during the anesthetic procedure were quite common and were related to hypoventilation. The use of isoflurane did not result in arrhythmia, being therefore a good choice for this type of animal; Electrocardiographic findings of ST-segment and T-wave changes during the maintenance anesthesia were evident in animals with hypercapnia, a disorder that should be promptly corrected with assisted or controlled ventilation to prevent complicated arrhythmias.

Power Secant Method applied to natural frequency extraction of Timoshenko beam structures

This work deals with an improved plane frame formulation whose exact dynamic stiffness matrix (DSM) presents, uniquely, null determinant for the natural frequencies. In comparison with the classical DSM, the formulation herein presented has some major advantages: local mode shapes are preserved in the formulation so that, for any positive frequency, the DSM will never be ill-conditioned; in the absence of poles, it is possible to employ the secant method in order to have a more computationally efficient eigenvalue extraction procedure. Applying the procedure to the more general case of Timoshenko beams, we introduce a new technique, named ""power deflation"", that makes the secant method suitable for the transcendental nonlinear eigenvalue problems based on the improved DSM. In order to avoid overflow occurrences that can hinder the secant method iterations, limiting frequencies are formulated, with scaling also applied to the eigenvalue problem. Comparisons with results available in the literature demonstrate the strength of the proposed method. Computational efficiency is compared with solutions obtained both by FEM and by the Wittrick-Williams algorithm.

Combining Legendre's Polynomials and Genetic Algorithm in the Solution of Nonlinear Initial-Value Problems

This work develops a method for solving ordinary differential equations, that is, initial-value problems, with solutions approximated by using Legendre's polynomials. An iterative procedure for the adjustment of the polynomial coefficients is developed, based on the genetic algorithm. This procedure is applied to several examples providing comparisons between its results and the best polynomial fitting when numerical solutions by the traditional Runge-Kutta or Adams methods are available. The resulting algorithm provides reliable solutions even if the numerical solutions are not available, that is, when the mass matrix is singular or the equation produces unstable running processes.

TCF7L2 variant genotypes and type 2 diabetes risk in Brazil: significant association, but not a significant tool for risk stratification in the general population

Background: Genetic polymorphisms of the TCF7L2 gene are strongly associated with large increments in type 2 diabetes risk in different populations worldwide. In this study, we aimed to confirm the effect of the TCF7L2 polymorphism rs7903146 on diabetes risk in a Brazilian population and to assess the use of this genetic marker in improving diabetes risk prediction in the general population. Methods: We genotyped the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene in 560 patients with known coronary disease enrolled in the MASS II (Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study) Trial and in 1,449 residents of Vitoria, in Southeast Brazil. The associations of this gene variant to diabetes risk and metabolic characteristics in these two different populations were analyzed. To access the potential benefit of using this marker for diabetes risk prediction in the general population we analyzed the impact of this genetic variant on a validated diabetes risk prediction tool based on clinical characteristics developed for the Brazilian general population. Results: SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in the MASS-II population (OR = 1.57 per T allele, p = 0.0032), confirming, in the Brazilian population, previous reports of the literature. Addition of this polymorphism to an established clinical risk prediction score did not increased model accuracy (both area under ROC curve equal to 0.776). Conclusion: TCF7L2 rs7903146 T allele is associated with a 1.57 increased risk for type 2 diabetes in a Brazilian cohort of patients with known coronary heart disease. However, the inclusion of this polymorphism in a risk prediction tool developed for the general population resulted in no improvement of performance. This is the first study, to our knowledge, that has confirmed this recent association in a South American population and adds to the great consistency of this finding in studies around the world. Finally, confirming the biological association of a genetic marker does not guarantee improvement on already established screening tools based solely on demographic variables.

CYP2C19 and ABCB1 gene polymorphisms are differently distributed according to ethnicity in the Brazilian general population

Background: Recent studies have reported the clinical importance of CYP2C19 and ABCB1 polymorphisms in an individualized approach to clopidogrel treatment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the frequencies of CYP2C19 and ABCB1 polymorphisms and to identify the clopidogrel-predicted metabolic phenotypes according to ethnic groups in a sample of individuals representative of a highly admixtured population. Methods: One hundred and eighty-three Amerindians and 1,029 subjects of the general population of 4 regions of the country were included. Genotypes for the ABCB1c.C3435T (rs1045642), CYP2C19*2 (rs4244285), CYP2C19*3 (rs4986893), CYP2C19*4 (rs28399504), CYP2C19*5 (rs56337013), and CYP2C19*17 (rs12248560) polymorphisms were detected by polymerase chain reaction followed by high resolution melting analysis. The CYP2C19*3, CYP2C19*4 and CYP2C19*5 variants were genotyped in a subsample of subjects (300 samples randomly selected). Results: The CYP2C19*3 and CYP2C19*5 variant alleles were not detected and the CYP2C19*4 variant allele presented a frequency of 0.3%. The allelic frequencies for the ABCB1c.C3435T, CYP2C19*2 and CYP2C19*17 polymorphisms were differently distributed according to ethnicity: Amerindian (51.4%, 10.4%, 15.8%); Caucasian descent (43.2%, 16.9%, 18.0%); Mulatto (35.9%, 16.5%, 21.3%); and African descent (32.8%, 20.2%, 26.3%) individuals, respectively. As a result, self-referred ethnicity was able to predict significantly different clopidogrel-predicted metabolic phenotypes prevalence even for a highly admixtured population. Conclusion: Our findings indicate the existence of inter-ethnic differences in the ABCB1 and CYP2C19 variant allele frequencies in the Brazilian general population plus Amerindians. This information could help in stratifying individuals from this population regarding clopidogrel-predicted metabolic phenotypes and design more cost-effective programs towards individualization of clopidogrel therapy.

Continental passive microwave-based rainfall estimation algorithm: Application to the Amazon Basin

This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.

Fast ray-tracing algorithm for circumstellar structures (FRACS) II. Disc parameters of the B[e] supergiant CPD-57 degrees 2874 from VLTI/MIDI data

Context. B[e] supergiants are luminous, massive post-main sequence stars exhibiting non-spherical winds, forbidden lines, and hot dust in a disc-like structure. The physical properties of their rich and complex circumstellar environment (CSE) are not well understood, partly because these CSE cannot be easily resolved at the large distances found for B[e] supergiants (typically greater than or similar to 1 kpc). Aims. From mid-IR spectro-interferometric observations obtained with VLTI/MIDI we seek to resolve and study the CSE of the Galactic B[e] supergiant CPD-57 degrees 2874. Methods. For a physical interpretation of the observables (visibilities and spectrum) we use our ray-tracing radiative transfer code (FRACS), which is optimised for thermal spectro-interferometric observations. Results. Thanks to the short computing time required by FRACS (<10 s per monochromatic model), best-fit parameters and uncertainties for several physical quantities of CPD-57 degrees 2874 were obtained, such as inner dust radius, relative flux contribution of the central source and of the dusty CSE, dust temperature profile, and disc inclination. Conclusions. The analysis of VLTI/MIDI data with FRACS allowed one of the first direct determinations of physical parameters of the dusty CSE of a B[e] supergiant based on interferometric data and using a full model-fitting approach. In a larger context, the study of B[e] supergiants is important for a deeper understanding of the complex structure and evolution of hot, massive stars.

Kinematic parameters and membership probabilities of open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue

Aims. We derive lists of proper-motions and kinematic membership probabilities for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the zone of the Bordeaux PM2000 proper motion catalogue (+ 11 degrees <= delta <= + 18 degrees). We test different parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions and select the most successful one. In the light of those results, we analyse some objects individually. Methods. We differenciate between cluster and field member stars, and assign membership probabilities, by applying a new and fully automated method based on both parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions, and genetic algorithm optimization heuristics associated with a derivative-based hill climbing algorithm for the likelihood optimization. Results. We present a catalogue comprising kinematic parameters and associated membership probability lists for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue region. We note that this is the first determination of proper motions for five open clusters. We confirm the non-existence of two kinematic populations in the region of 15 previously suspected non-existent objects.

THE SLOAN NEARBY CLUSTER WEAK LENSING SURVEY

We describe and present initial results of a weak lensing survey of nearby (z less than or similar to 0.1) galaxy clusters in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). In this first study, galaxy clusters are selected from the SDSS spectroscopic galaxy cluster catalogs of Miller et al. and Berlind et al. We report a total of seven individual low-redshift cluster weak lensing measurements that include A2048, A1767, A2244, A1066, A2199, and two clusters specifically identified with the C4 algorithm. Our program of weak lensing of nearby galaxy clusters in the SDSS will eventually reach similar to 200 clusters, making it the largest weak lensing survey of individual galaxy clusters to date.