Predicting space climate change

The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest‐fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long‐term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near‐Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300‐year record.

Solar cycle 24: implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ∼65–75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ∼10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

Performance analysis and deployment of VoLTE mechanisms over 3GPP LTE-based networks

Long Term Evolution based networks lack native support for Circuit Switched (CS) services. The Evolved Packet System (EPS) which includes the Evolved UMTS Terrestrial Radio Access Network (E-UTRAN) and Evolved Packet Core (EPC) is a purely all-IP packet system. This introduces the problem of how to provide voice call support when a user is within an LTE network and how to ensure voice service continuity when the user moves out of LTE coverage area. Different technologies have been proposed for the purpose of providing a voice to LTE users and to ensure the service continues outside LTE networks. The aim of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the overall performance of these technologies along with Single Radio Voice Call Continuity (SRVCC) Inter-RAT handover to Universal Terrestrial Radio Access Networks/ GSM-EDGE radio access Networks (UTRAN/GERAN). The possible solutions for providing voice call and service continuity over LTE-based networks are Circuit Switched Fall Back (CSFB), Voice over LTE via Generic Access (VoLGA), Voice over LTE (VoLTE) based on IMS/MMTel with SRVCC and Over The Top (OTT) services like Skype. This paper focuses mainly on the 3GPP standard solutions to implement voice over LTE. The paper compares various aspects of these solutions and suggests a possible roadmap that mobile operators can adopt to provide seamless voice over LTE.

Coordinated Cluster and ground-based instrument observations of transient changes in the magnetopause boundary layer during an interval of predominantly northward IMF: relation to reconnection pulses and FTE signatures

We study a series of transient entries into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of all four Cluster spacecraft during an outbound pass through the mid-afternoon magnetopause ([X(GSM), Y(GSM), Z(GSM)] approximate to [2, 7, 9] R(E)). The events take place during an interval of northward IMF, as seen in the data from the ACE satellite and lagged by a propagation delay of 75 min that is well-defined by two separate studies: (1) the magnetospheric variations prior to the northward turning (Lockwood et al., 2001, this issue) and (2) the field clock angle seen by Cluster after it had emerged into the magnetosheath (Opgenoorth et al., 2001, this issue). With an additional lag of 16.5 min, the transient LLBL events cor-relate well with swings of the IMF clock angle (in GSM) to near 90degrees. Most of this additional lag is explained by ground-based observations, which reveal signatures of transient reconnection in the pre-noon sector that then take 10-15 min to propagate eastward to 15 MLT, where they are observed by Cluster. The eastward phase speed of these signatures agrees very well with the motion deduced by the cross-correlation of the signatures seen on the four Cluster spacecraft. The evidence that these events are reconnection pulses includes: transient erosion of the noon 630 nm (cusp/cleft) aurora to lower latitudes; transient and travelling enhancements of the flow into the polar cap, imaged by the AMIE technique; and poleward-moving events moving into the polar cap, seen by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR). A pass of the DMSP-F15 satellite reveals that the open field lines near noon have been opened for some time: the more recently opened field lines were found closer to dusk where the flow transient and the poleward-moving event intersected the satellite pass. The events at Cluster have ion and electron characteristics predicted and observed by Lockwood and Hapgood (1998) for a Flux Transfer Event (FTE), with allowance for magnetospheric ion reflection at Alfvenic disturbances in the magnetopause reconnection layer. Like FTEs, the events are about 1 R(E) in their direction of motion and show a rise in the magnetic field strength, but unlike FTEs, in general, they show no pressure excess in their core and hence, no characteristic bipolar signature in the boundary-normal component. However, most of the events were observed when the magnetic field was southward, i.e. on the edge of the interior magnetic cusp, or when the field was parallel to the magnetic equatorial plane. Only when the satellite begins to emerge from the exterior boundary (when the field was northward), do the events start to show a pressure excess in their core and the consequent bipolar signature. We identify the events as the first observations of FTEs at middle altitudes.

Variability of the interplanetary medium at 1 A.U. over 24 years: 1963–1986

A survey is presented of hourly averages of observations of the interplanetary medium, made by satellites close to the Earth (i.e. at l a.u.) in the years 1963-1986. This survey therefore covers two complete solar cycles (numbers 20 and 21). The distributions and solar-cycle variations of IMF field strength, B, and its northward component (in GSM coordinates), B(z), and of the solar-wind density, n, speed, v, and dynamic pressure, P, are discussed. Because of their importance to the terrestrial magnetosphere/ionosphere, particular attention is given to B(z) and P. The solar-cycle variation in the magnitude and variability of B(z) previously reported for cycle 20, is also found for cycle 21. However, the solar-wind data show a number of differences between cycles 20 and 21. The average dynamic pressure is found to show a solar-cycle variation and a systematic increase over the period of the survey. The minimum of dynamic pressure at sunspot maximum is mainly due to reduced solar-wind densities in cycle 20, but lower solar-wind speed in cycle 21 is a more significant factor. The distribution of the duration of periods of stable polarity of the IMF B(z) component shows that the magnetosphere could achieve steady state for only a small fraction of the time and there is some evidence for a solar-cycle variation in this fraction. It is also found that the polarity changes in the IMF B(z) fall into two classes: one with an associated change in solar-wind dynamic pressure, the other without such a change. However, in only 20% of cases does the dynamic pressure change exceed 50%.

Interplanetary magnetic field control of dayside auroral activity and the transfer of momentum across the dayside magnetopause

The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) during transient bursts of ionospheric flow and auroral activity in the dayside auroral ionosphere is studied, using data from the EISCAT radar, meridian-scanning photometers, and an all-sky TV camera, in conjunction with simultaneous observations of the interplanetary medium by the IMP-8 satellite. It is found that the ionospheric flow and auroral burst events occur regularly (mean repetition period equal to 8.3 ± 0.6 min) during an initial period of about 45 min when the IMF is continuously and strongly southward in GSM coordinates, consistent with previous observations of the occurrence of transient dayside auroral activity. However, in the subsequent 1.5 h, the IMF was predominantly northward, and only made brief excursions to a southward orientation. During this period, the mean interval between events increased to 19.2 ± 1.7 min. If it is assumed that changes in the North-South component of the IMF are aligned with the IMF vector in the ecliptic plane, the delays can be estimated between such a change impinging upon IMP-8 and the response in the cleft ionosphere within the radar field-of-view. It is found that, to within the accuracy of this computed lag, each transient ionospheric event during the period of predominantly northward IMF can be associated with a brief, isolated southward excursion of the IMF, as observed by IMP-8. From this limited period of data, we therefore suggest that transient momentum exchange between the magnetosheath and the ionosphere occurs quasi-periodically when the IMF is continuously southward, with a mean period which is strikingly similar to that for Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) at the magnetopause. During periods of otherwise northward IMF, individual momentum transfer events can be triggered by brief swings to southward IMF. Hence under the latter conditions the periodicity of the events can reflect a periodicity in the IMF, but that period will always be larger than the minimum value which occurs when the IMF is strongly and continuously southward.

On the origins and timescales of geoeffective IMF

Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) reference frame is the key element that controls the level of space-weather disturbance in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. We discuss the relation of this geoeffective IMF component to the IMF in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) frame and, using the almost continuous interplanetary data for 1996-2015 (inclusive), we show that large geomagnetic storms are always associated with strong southward, out-of-ecliptic field in the GSE frame: dipole tilt effects, that cause the difference between the southward field in the GSM and GSE frames, generally make only a minor contribution to these strongest storms. The time-of-day/time-of-year response patterns of geomagnetic indices and the optimum solar wind coupling function are both influenced by the timescale of the index response. We also study the occurrence spectrum of large out-of-ecliptic field and show that for one-hour averages it is, surprisingly, almost identical in ICMEs (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections), around CIRs/SIRs (Corotating and Stream Interaction Regions) and in the “quiet” solar wind (which is shown to be consistent with the effect of weak SIRs). However, differences emerge when the timescale over which the field remains southward is considered: for longer averaging timescales the spectrum is broader inside ICMEs, showing that these events generate longer intervals of strongly southward average IMF and consequently stronger geomagnetic storms. The behavior of out-of-ecliptic field with timescale is shown to be very similar to that of deviations from the predicted Parker spiral orientation, suggesting the two share common origins.

En jämförelse av olika kommunikationstekniker och systemarkitekturiska lösningar vid uppbyggnad av nätverk i naturen.

Att konstruera ett tidtagningssystem för enduro i skogen leder till flera frågor som måste undersökas och besvaras. Vilken kommunikationsteknik ska användas och vilken systemarkitekturisk lösning passar bäst? Att dra kabel ute i skogen är ett bra sätt att lösa det kommunikationstekniska problemet, lösningen är säker och relativt billig. Visst påverkas priset av distansen mellan olika klienter ute i skogen, men alla positiva egenskaper hos tekniken gör denna kostnad värd sitt pris. De geografiska variationer som kan finnas är de som kan spela ut de övriga teknikerna i form av stabilitet. En snabb resultatförmedling kräver ett system som har en väl uppbyggd systemarkitektur. Vid tidtagning kommer data i form av tider skickas från klienterna direkt till huvudservern, ingen mellanlagring sker utan data lagras centralt vilket förespråkas i IRM. Dessutom kommer ingen redundans att accepteras, vilket även det förespråkas av IRM. Det finns även flera andra parametrar som väger för att välja IRM, vilket är det som rekommenderas utifrån den analys som gjorts i denna uppsats.

Analys av en meddelandetjänst vid krissituationer baserat på CBS-tekniken(Cell Broadcast Service)

Uppdragsgivare för detta examensarbete är Länsstyrelsen Dalarna. Målet är att undersöka hur lämplig tekniken med CBS (Cell Broadcast Service) baserade textmeddelande är vid viktigt meddelande till allmänheten (VMA-larm). En tjänst som utnyttjar CBS-tekniken kan rädda liv om allmänheten i ett tidigt skede får reda på vad som hänt och vart de ska bege sig.Rapporten visar på hur man kan använda SMS då en krissituation uppstår. Med hjälp av CBS-tekniken skickas meddelandet till specifikt valda basstationer och alla mobiltelefoner som är uppkopplade mot den. Det positiva är att bara de som behöver få veta vad som hänt får meddelandet.Enligt specifikationerna (ETSI) på GSM och 3G-näten i Sverige finns det stöd för utskick av CBS-meddelanden inbyggt i de befintliga näten. Det finns dock vissa problem vid införandet av CBS-tekniken i operatörsnäten. Operatörerna måste implementera en Cell Broadcast Center (CBC) i näten, denna del av infrastrukturen kommunicerar med basstationerna och sköter utskicken av CBS-meddelanden. Ett ytterligare problem med CBS-tekniken är att användarna måste aktivera mobiltelefonen för att ta emot CBS-meddelanden.Enligt Telia och Vodafone används CBS inte i Sverige idag men vi bedömer att tjänsten för att varna allmänheten kan använda sig av CBS-tekniken om den implementeras i operatörsnäten. Vi har i detta arbete använt oss av en generell kvalitativ metod kompletterat med Siegels metod. Med den kvalitativa metoden har vi intervjuat Telia och Vodafone på ingående fakta om CBS-tekniken. Vid design av teknisk lösning har vi använt oss av Siegels två första faser.

Granskning av möjliggörande teknik och utveckling av prototyp för geografiskt riktade utskick av SMS

Detta examensarbete på magisternivå genomfördes vårterminen 2004 med Siljan Turism som uppdragsgivare. Målet var att förbättra en befintlig SMS-tjänsten för utskick av erbjudanden genom att möjliggöra geografiskt riktade utskick.Anledningen till att man vill göra denna form av riktade utskick är att man vill kunna minska annonskostnaderna, men fortfarande snabbt nå intresserade konsumenter. Om man idag skulle vilja annonsera ut till exempel biljetter till ett evenemang som äger rum inom den närmaste tiden, där det finns lediga platser kan man endast skicka erbjudanden till samtliga intresserade. Utskicken sker oberoende av var mottagarna befinner sig, trots att de egentligen inte skulle kunna komma fram i tid. Med hjälp av geografiskt riktade utskick skulle man kunna effektivisera utskicken så att de enbart skickas till de som faktiskt har möjlighet att utnyttja erbjudandet.Det befintliga systemet var baserat på en standardiserad tjänst som vi inte hade möjligheter att förbättra. På grund av detta beslutade vi oss för att utveckla en prototyp för att kunna bygga in all ny funktionalitet. Med denna prototyp försökte vi även att eliminera delar av den manuella hantering som krävs med det befintliga systemet.För att kunna realisera dessa riktade utskick behövde vi en typ av positionering som inte existerar idag. De lösningar som finns idag passar inte vår tänkta tjänst. Därför har vi gjort egna undersökningar i GSM och UMTS för att finna lösningsalternativ. Därför kan rapporten vara intressant även för andra än vår uppdragsgivare när det gäller denna typ av geografiskt riktade utskick.

Paper dimensional stability in sheet-fed offset printing : Papperets dimensionsstabilitet i en arkoffsetpress

In offset printing, dampening solution is used to create a good balance in the process. If too much water is transferred to the paper, the sheet can change its size between the printing units, due to water absorption, and cause a problem with the colour register. This phenomenon is usually referred to as fanout. In this degree project, an investigation was made to see if the paper dimensions changed through its way in the sheet-fed printing process. The instrument Luchs Register Measuring Systems (Lynx) was used, and a method for measuring if the paper changed its dimensions with this instrument, was developed. Paper qualities with three different grammages were used, 90, 130 and 250 gsm. This investigation showed that all paper qualities changed their size with widening in the gripper edge in the range of 10 - 70 µm and in the trailing edge the increase was 10 - 130 µm. The elongations of the papers were in the range of 10- 300 µm. The papers with lowest grammage changed more than the heavier. To see if the print had been affected of the widening and elongation, print quality parameters like relative contrast, dot gain and mottle were correlated with the Lynx data from the sheets. The group of papers that gave correlations were in 130 gsm. The sheets had visual doubling and the combined standard deviation from the Lynx marks K3, K5 and K21 correlated with dot gain. When the variations increased so did the dot gain and this indicates that the doubling was due to the widening. There was also a correlation between the standard deviation from K3 and Mottle. The sheets widened with an average of 30 µm in the gripper edge and since there probably were doubling due to widening it also affected the Mottle values. What the widening depends on is hard to tell. Since widening was so small, it could be due to water absorption, papers being ironed out or maybe the sheets have been flattened out. It probably needs a more detailed investigation to find out what causes the widening. Further investigations about how print quality is affected by the register accuracy of a printing machine should include a print form with measuring areas close to the Lynx marks. The measuring areas should contain fine hairlines, negative text printed with at least two colours and some pictures to evaluate together with standard measuring should give a good knowledge about the subject.

Konstruktion och design av två glassförpackningar i kartongkvaliteten Frövi Light

This degree project was made in cooperation with AssiDomän Frövi and Charlotte Andersson and the main objectivehas been to create to ice cream pacbges from 250 gsm Frövi Light board. The paekages are intended to be easilyresealable while decreasing in size together with the ice cream. The project also describes the food packaging labelsand symbols currently present in the European common market.Both capsules utilize a separate lid for resealing. One of the paekages (Capsuie A) is indended to be cut along withthe ice cream and thereby decrease in size. The other one (Capsuie B) uses a series of flaps for contracting and expandingwhich enab1es adjusting of the size without cutting the package up.The design for Capsuie A is created both as a series of flavours with a super-hero theme intended for children andwith a colfee flavour for a maturer audience. For Capsule B, a design was created for a sorbet.

Inovação tecnológica e vantagem competitiva no setor de telefonia móvel

O setor de telefonia móvel tem passado por um processo de inovação tecnológica. Estas inovações afetam as estratégias das empresas do setor, e estabelecem uma forte concorrência entre elas. Sendo assim, a presente pesquisa objetiva identificar e comparar as vantagens competitivas que estão sendo geradas para as operadoras de telefonia móvel nacionais, tendo como objeto, analisar suas operações no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, a partir da opção tecnológica (GSM ou CDMA) de cada uma. Para tanto, a pesquisa teve duas fases: na primeira fase, partiu-se de um referencial teórico inicial, sendo feita logo após uma pesquisa junto a quatorze (14) experts no setor de telefonia móvel, e com base na análise de conteúdo destas entrevistas acrescentaram-se outros referenciais teóricos para constituir o que é chamado aqui de arcabouço teórico (tendo como principais eixos teóricos os temas Inovação Tecnológica, Estratégias Competitivas e Teoria dos Stakeholders) das principais categorias estratégicas do setor de telefonia móvel brasileiro; na segunda fase, a partir do arcabouço teórico construído na primeira fase, foram feitos dois estudos de caso (Empresa A e Empresa B), com operadoras de Telefonia Móvel de atuação nacional, que representam juntas 67% do market share nacional, tendo como objeto de análise suas operações no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (uma que optou pela tecnologia GSM e outra que optou pela tecnologia CDMA). Para análise desta segunda fase foi utilizada a técnica de triangulação de dados aliada ao método descritivo-interpretativo, onde foram analisadas seis (6) entrevistas em cada uma das empresas estudadas, os dados secundário s coletados, e as observações realizadas nas próprias empresas e em uma feira de telefonia móvel nacional. Como resultados são apresentados três (3) tipos de vantagens competitivas para cada uma das duas empresas: gerais; derivadas da opção tecnológica (CDMA; GSM); derivadas da organização. Neste sentido destaca-se que foram encontradas em sua maioria vantagens competitivas que advêm da opção tecnológica que cada empresa realizou, ou seja, foi possível, qualitativamente, identificar uma relação onde as inovações tecnológicas (CDMA; GSM) conduziram a atributos de vantagem competitiva. Por fim é feita uma comparação entre as vantagens competitivas identificadas para cada uma das empresas, à luz de um referencial teórico, que permitiu distinguir os recursos, as capacidades e as competências de cada uma. Nesta comparação foram identificadas do ponto de vista teórico, dois tipos de vantagens competitivas para a Empresa A (Capacidade Posicional e Interação Estratégia e Tecnologia) e dois tipos de vantagens competitivas para a Empresa B (Controle de Custos e Interação Estratégia e Tecnologia), ressaltando-se que também na comparação, as vantagens competitivas encontradas, derivaram diretamente da opção tecnológica de cada empresa.

Sistema de Comunicações para as Ilhas Desertas

Esta dissertação tem como principal objectivo, propor um sistema de comunicações para as Ilhas Desertas que vise atender às necessidades expostas pelo PNM - Parque Natural da Madeira. Localizadas a 22 milhas marítimas do Funchal, as ilhas Desertas não dispõem de cobertura da rede móvel GSM - Global Standard for Mobile, nem de qualquer outra infra-estrutura de comunicações que permita a comunicação entre os vigilantes e a estação de serviço - doca. Esta falta de comunicação torna-se mais problemática aquando da realização de acções de fiscalização e vigilância, já que em caso de acidente não será possível pedir auxílio. Dada esta realidade propomos a criação de uma rede de rádio móvel terrestre para as Ilhas Desertas, com a instalação de vários repetidores UHF no topo das ilhas. O projecto desta rede será fundamentado com a realização de um estudo de cobertura para as três ilhas que incluirá a avaliação e análise de vários modelos de propagação. Esta análise é realizada com recurso a duas ferramentas de software, Radio-Mobile e DifractionLoss, tendo este último sido desenvolvido no âmbito desta dissertação. De forma a melhorar a cobertura da rede GSM na estação de serviço do PNM na Deserta Grande, sugerem-se duas soluções: a primeira consiste na instalação de um repetidor GSM de frequência deslocada e a segunda na instalação de uma NanoBTS. Além da falta de comunicação na área das ilhas Desertas, a falta de comunicação com a ilha da Madeira é também uma realidade. Perante esta situação sugere-se a criação de uma ligação por feixes hertzianos de alta frequência entre a estação de serviço do PNM na Deserta Grande e a sede do PNM, localizada na zona do Jardim Botânico na Ilha da Madeira. O projecto desta ligação apresenta um planeamento e dimensionamento de acordo com as necessidades apresentadas pelo PNM, assim como um estudo de propagação baseado num procedimento teórico e em simulações de software. É também proposto um sistema de videovigilância controlado remotamente com o objectivo de permitir a monitorização remota dos lobos-marinhos.

Sistema de monitorização de defeitos na rede de energia elétrica de média tensão

Nesta dissertação de Mestrado em Engenharia Eletrotécnica – Telecomunicações desenvolveu-se um sistema de monitorização de defeitos de uma rede de energia elétrica de média tensão, para melhorar a qualidade de serviço do fornecimento de energia elétrica. O sistema deteta e indica a localização da respetiva falha, que impede o funcionamento de uma parte da rede, também interliga todos os sensores instalados na rede a um ponto central que recebe toda a informação proveniente dos sensores, e ajuda na tomada de decisão. Neste trabalho de dissertação fez-se o estudo e descrição das redes de energia elétrica, realçando a topologia, o modo de operação e parâmetros de qualidade. Assinalou-se também os principais defeitos que podem ocorrer na rede de média tensão. Apresentou-se, ao nível comercial, soluções para mitigar o problema alvo de estudo. Explorou-se, num ambiente de simulação, soluções de deteção dos defeitos da rede, tendo sido desenvolvidos três sistemas distintos: sistema A, sistema B e sistema C. Sistema A que monitoriza o valor nominal da corrente elétrica em cada troço da rede elétrica, sistema B com a monitorização do valor da corrente elétrica em cada posto de transformação e sistema C que compara as correntes no inicio e final de cada troço da rede elétrica, verificando se há alguma discrepância entre ambas. Após a análise e simulação das soluções descreve-se o procedimento realizado para criar um protótipo de um sistema de monitorização. Começou-se por testar, individualmente, os sensores de corrente, circuito de condicionamento, microcontroladores e sistema Scada, usado para a visualização dos dados. Posteriormente, elaborou-se manuais de utilização de forma a auxiliar o sistema em trabalhos futuros que venham dar continuidade a este trabalho. Para validar a análise teórica e confirmar os resultados da simulação, testou-se experimentalmente o sistema de deteção C. Confirmou-se que o sistema de monitorização de defeitos é capaz de detetar e localizar a avaria presente na rede de energia elétrica.