Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system

A global river routing scheme coupled to the ECMWF land surface model is implemented and tested within the framework of the Global Soil Wetness Project II, to evaluate the feasibility of modelling global river runoff at a daily time scale. The exercise is designed to provide benchmark river runoff predictions needed to verify the land surface model. Ten years of daily runoff produced by the HTESSEL land surface scheme is input into the TRIP2 river routing scheme in order to generate daily river runoff. These are then compared to river runoff observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in order to evaluate the potential and the limitations. A notable source of inaccuracy is bias between observed and modelled discharges which is not primarily due to the modelling system but instead of to the forcing and quality of observations and seems uncorrelated to the river catchment size. A global sensitivity analysis and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) uncertainty analysis are applied to the global routing model. The ground water delay parameter is identified as being the most sensitive calibration parameter. Significant uncertainties are found in results, and those due to parameterisation of the routing model are quantified. The difficulty involved in parameterising global river discharge models is discussed. Detailed river runoff simulations are shown for the river Danube, which match well observed river runoff in upstream river transects. Results show that although there are errors in runoff predictions, model results are encouraging and certainly indicative of useful runoff predictions, particularly for the purpose of verifying the land surface scheme hydrologicly. Potential of this modelling system on future applications such as river runoff forecasting and climate impact studies is highlighted. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.

Aircraft routing with minimal climate impact: the REACT4C climate cost function modelling approach (V1.0)

In addition to CO2, the climate impact of aviation is strongly influenced by non-CO2 emissions, such as nitrogen oxides, influencing ozone and methane, and water vapour, which can lead to the formation of persistent contrails in ice-supersaturated regions. Because these non-CO2 emission effects are characterised by a short lifetime, their climate impact largely depends on emission location and time; that is to say, emissions in certain locations (or times) can lead to a greater climate impact (even on the global average) than the same emission in other locations (or times). Avoiding these climate-sensitive regions might thus be beneficial to climate. Here, we describe a modelling chain for investigating this climate impact mitigation option. This modelling chain forms a multi-step modelling approach, starting with the simulation of the fate of emissions released at a certain location and time (time-region grid points). This is performed with the chemistry–climate model EMAC, extended via the two submodels AIRTRAC (V1.0) and CONTRAIL (V1.0), which describe the contribution of emissions to the composition of the atmosphere and to contrail formation, respectively. The impact of emissions from the large number of time-region grid points is efficiently calculated by applying a Lagrangian scheme. EMAC also includes the calculation of radiative impacts, which are, in a second step, the input to climate metric formulas describing the global climate impact of the emission at each time-region grid point. The result of the modelling chain comprises a four-dimensional data set in space and time, which we call climate cost functions and which describes the global climate impact of an emission at each grid point and each point in time. In a third step, these climate cost functions are used in an air traffic simulator (SAAM) coupled to an emission tool (AEM) to optimise aircraft trajectories for the North Atlantic region. Here, we describe the details of this new modelling approach and show some example results. A number of sensitivity analyses are performed to motivate the settings of individual parameters. A stepwise sanity check of the results of the modelling chain is undertaken to demonstrate the plausibility of the climate cost functions.

A mathematical model for the dynamics of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt with vertical transmission and inflorescence infection

A mathematical model for Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) spread by insect is presented. The model incorporates inflorescence infection and vertical transmission from the mother corm to attached suckers, but not tool-based transmission by humans. Expressions for the basic reproduction number R0 are obtained and it is verified that disease persists, at a unique endemic level, when R0 > 1. From sensitivity analysis, inflorescence infection rate and roguing rate were the parameters with most influence on disease persistence and equilibrium level. Vertical transmission parameters had less effect on persistence threshold values. Parameters were approximately estimated from field data. The model indicates that single stem removal is a feasible approach to eradication if spread is mainly via inflorescence infection. This requires continuous surveillance and debudding such that a 50% reduction in inflorescence infection and 2–3 weeks interval of surveillance would eventually lead to full recovery of banana plantations and hence improved production.

Production of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) P(3HB-co-3HV) with a broad range of 3HV content at high yields by Burkholderia sacchari IPT 189

The biosynthesis of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) from sucrose and propionic acid by Burkholderia sacchari IPT 189 was studied using a two-stage bioreactor process. In the first stage, this bacterium was cultivated in a balanced culture medium until sucrose exhaustion. In the second stage, a solution containing sucrose and propionic acid as carbon source was fed to the bioreactor at various sucrose/propionic acid (s/p) ratios at a constant specific flow rate. Copolymers with 3HV content ranging from 40 down to 6.5 (mol%) were obtained with 3HV yield from propionic acid (Y-3HV/prop) increasing from 1.10 to 1.34 g g(-1). Copolymer productivity of 1 g l(-1) h(-1) was obtained with polymer biomass content rising up to 60% by increasing a specific flow rate at a constant s/p ratio. Increasing values of 3HV content were obtained by varying the s/p ratios. A simulation of production costs considering Y-3HV/prop obtained in the present work indicated that a reduction of up to 73% can be reached, approximating US$ 1.00 per kg which is closer to the value to produce P3HB from sucrose (US$ 0.75 per kg).

Trypanosoma cruzi in Brazilian Amazonia: Lineages TCI and TCIIa in wild primates, Rhodnius spp. and in humans with Chagas disease associated with oral transmission

In this study, we provide phylogenetic and biogeographic evidence that the Trypanosomo cruzi lineages T. cruzi I (TCI) and T. cruzi IIa (TCIIa) circulate amongst non-human primates in Brazilian Amazonia, and are transmitted by Rhodnius species in overlapping arboreal transmission cycles, sporadically infecting humans. TO presented higher prevalence rates, and no lineages other than TCI and TCIIa were found in this study in wild monkeys and Rhodnius from the Amazonian region. We characterised TO and TCIIa from wild primates (16 TO and five TCIIa), Rhodnius spp, (13 TCI and nine TCIIa), and humans with Chagas disease associated with oral transmission (14 TO and five TCIIa) in Brazilian Amazonia. To our knowledge, TCIIa had not been associated with wild monkeys until now. Polymorphisms of ssrDNA, cytochrome b gene sequences and randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) patterns clearly separated TCIIa from TCIIb-e and TCI lineages, and disclosed small intra-lineage polymorphisms amongst isolates from Amazonia. These data are important in understanding the complexity of the transmission cycles, genetic structure, and evolutionary history of T cruzi populations circulating in Amazonia, and they contribute to both the unravelling of human infection routes and the pathological peculiarities of Chagas disease in this region. (C) 2008 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global minimization using an Augmented Lagrangian method with variable lower-level constraints

A novel global optimization method based on an Augmented Lagrangian framework is introduced for continuous constrained nonlinear optimization problems. At each outer iteration k the method requires the epsilon(k)-global minimization of the Augmented Lagrangian with simple constraints, where epsilon(k) -> epsilon. Global convergence to an epsilon-global minimizer of the original problem is proved. The subproblems are solved using the alpha BB method. Numerical experiments are presented.

3D roll-forming of hat-profile with variable depth and width

The use of roll-formed products in automotive, furniture, buildings etc. increases every year due to the low part-production cost and the complicated cross-sections that can be produced. The limitation with roll-forming until recent years is that one could only produce profiles with a constant cross-section in the longitudinal direction. About eight years ago ORTIC AB [1] developed a machine in which it was possible to produce profiles with a variable width (“3D roll-forming”) for the building industry. Experimental equipment was recently built for research and prototyping of profiles with variable cross-section in both width and depth for the automotive industry. The objective with the current study is to investigate the new tooling concept that makes it possible to roll-form hat-profiles, made of ultra high strength steel, with variable cross-section in depth and width. The result shows that it is possible to produce 3D roll-formed profiles with close tolerances.

Determination of drawbead contacts with variable bead penetration

In stamping operations, the sliding of the sheet metal over the drawbeads is of great importance. The geometry of the drawbead and the degree of penetration both influence material flow and alter the frictional effects between the work and the tool. The effect of drawbead penetration over drawbeads has been studied using the Drawbead Simulator (DBS) test. The contact phenomenon between the sheet and drawbeads was analysed by examining deformed samples with an image fitting technique. The results were compared with an FE simulation and with an approximate geometric analysis. The results give a useful relationship between the rates of change of the contact angle with increasing bead penetration.

Automotive can network response time analysis with variable jitter

Many methods to calculate message latencies for Controller Area Network (CAN) have previously been presented based upon the static worst-case behaviour of the system. With the use of modern simulation tools however, the behaviour of CAN networks can be simulated dynamically in order to find the likely worst-case response times for CAN messages. This paper shows the development of an automotive body control network model to be used as the basis for further simulations. A method to simulate the Worst-Case Response Time of this model is then presented, taking into account random queuing jitter.

Multi-level virtual ring : cross-level name routing with embedded identifier in sensor network

This paper presents the Multi-level Virtual Ring (MVR), a new name routing scheme for sensor networks. MVR uses selection algorithm to identify sensor nodes' virtual level and uses Distribution Hash Table (DHT) to map them to the MVR, The address routing performs well in wired network, but it's not true in sensor network. Because when nodes are moving, the address of the nodes must be changed Further, the address routing needs servers to allocate addresses to nodes. To solve this problem, the name routing is being introduced, such as Virtual Ring Routing (VRR). MVR is a new name routing scheme, which improves the routing performance significantly by introducing the multi-level virtual ring and cross-level routing. Experiments show this embedded name routing is workable and achieves better routing performance.