A methodology for estimating exposure-controlled crash risk using traffic Police crash data

Exposure control or case-control methodologies are common techniques for estimating crash risks, however they require either observational data on control cases or exogenous exposure data, such as vehicle-kilometres travelled. This study proposes an alternative methodology for estimating crash risk of road user groups, whilst controlling for exposure under a variety of roadway, traffic and environmental factors by using readily available police-reported crash data. In particular, the proposed method employs a combination of a log-linear model and quasi-induced exposure technique to identify significant interactions among a range of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions to estimate associated crash risks. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a set of police-reported crash data from January 2004 to June 2009 on roadways in Queensland, Australia. Exposure-controlled crash risks of motorcyclists—involved in multi-vehicle crashes at intersections—were estimated under various combinations of variables like posted speed limit, intersection control type, intersection configuration, and lighting condition. Results show that the crash risk of motorcycles at three-legged intersections is high if the posted speed limits along the approaches are greater than 60 km/h. The crash risk at three-legged intersections is also high when they are unsignalized. Dark lighting conditions appear to increase the crash risk of motorcycles at signalized intersections, but the problem of night time conspicuity of motorcyclists at intersections is lessened on approaches with lower speed limits. This study demonstrates that this combined methodology is a promising tool for gaining new insights into the crash risks of road user groups, and is transferrable to other road users.

Bike share's impact on car use : evidence from the United States, Great Britain, and Australia

There are currently more than 400 cities operating bike share programs. Purported benefits of bike share programs include flexible mobility, physical activity, reduced congestion, emissions and fuel use. Implicit or explicit in the calculation of program benefits are assumptions regarding the modes of travel replaced by bike share journeys. This paper examines the degree to which car trips are replaced by bike share, through an examination of survey and trip data from bike share programs in Melbourne, Brisbane, Washing, D.C., London, and Minneapolis/St. Paul. A secondary and unique component of this analysis examines motor vehicle support services required for bike share fleet rebalancing and maintenance. These two components are then combined to estimate bike share’s overall contribution to changes in vehicle kilometres traveled. The results indicate that the estimated mean reduction in car use due to bike share is at least twice the distance covered by operator support vehicles, with the exception of London, in which the relationship is reversed, largely due to a low car mode substitution rate. As bike share programs mature, evaluation of their effectiveness in reducing car use may become increasingly important. This paper reveals that by increasing the convenience of bike share relative to car use and by improving perceptions of safety, the capacity of bike share programs to reduce vehicle trips and yield overall net benefits will be enhanced. Researchers can adapt the analytical approach proposed in this paper to assist in the evaluation of current and future bike share programs.

Investigating the individual and organisational predictors of work-related driving crash involvement in Ethiopia

The rate of road traffic injury and death in Ethiopia is at a critical level when compared to rates in high-income countries. Considering the enormity of this issue, research is to identify groups of high-risk road users and the factors contributing to their crash involvement. This study focuses on work-related drivers. This study explores driving behaviour as a mediator of the relationship between organisational and individual attribute factors and self-reported crashes in a sample of 213 work-related drivers in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The hypothesised framework identifies driving behaviour as the most proximal determinant of self-reported crashes, and safety values, role overload and self-efficacy as antecedents of driving behaviour. With the exception of the relationship between self-efficacy and driving behaviour, all the hypothesised relationships were supported. We make recommendations for intervention approaches that are theoretically focused and sensitive to the cultural context.

Road crash risk after whiplash associated disorder

The future on-road safety of drivers affected by Whiplash Associated Disorder (WAD), the most common soft-tissue injury suffered in a traffic crash, has not been extensively explored. We obtained an anonymised file of 4280 insurance claimants with WAD and, as controls, 1116 claimants with comparably severe soft-tissue injuries who are considered to be at no increased risk than the general population. Their demographic information, road user type and traffic crash records both prior and subsequent to the traffic incident in which the injury occurred, the index crash, were obtained. Rates of subsequent crash involvement in these two groups were then compared, adjusting for age, sex, road user type and prior crash experience. The risk of a subsequent crash in the WAD group relative to controls was 1.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.87–1.48). To allow for differentially altered driving exposure after index crash we distributed a brief survey asking about changes in driving habits after a traffic crash involving injury via physiotherapy clinics and online through the electronic newsletter of a local motoring organisation. The survey yielded responses from 113 drivers who had experienced WAD in a traffic crash and 53 with other soft tissue injuries. There were no differences on average between the groups in their prior driving levels or their percentage change therein at one, three or six months after injury. There was thus no evidence that drivers with WAD are at any higher safety risk than drivers with other types of relatively minor post-crash soft tissue injury.

Darling and the Great Anabranch : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

The Lower Darling River and Great Darling Anabranch are located in south west New South Wales. Muddy waters meander over the grey soil floodplains past red dunes, spiky saltbush and gnarled red gums. These are the traditional lands of the Paakintji people. But the land and the river are no longer what the Paakintji once knew and fished...

An approach for adaptive and integrated environmental planning to deal with uncertainty in a Great Barrier Reef Catchment

This paper presents the Mossman Mill District Practices Framework. It was developed in the Wet Tropics region within the Great Barrier Reef in north-eastern Australia to describe the environmental benefits of agricultural management practices for the sugar cane industry. The framework translates complex, unclear and overlapping environmental plans, policy and legal arrangements into a simple framework of management practices that landholders can use to improve their management actions. Practices range from those that are old or outdated through to aspirational practices that have the potential to achieve desired resource condition targets. The framework has been applied by stakeholders at multiple scales to better coordinate and integrate a range of policy arrangements to improve natural resource management. It has been used to structure monitoring and evaluation in order to underpin a more adaptive approach to planning at mill district and property scale. Potentially, the framework and approach can be applied across fields of planning where adaptive management is needed. It has the potential to overcome many of the criticisms of property-scale and regional Natural Resource Management.

A rapid assessment of the effects of extreme weather on two Great Barrier Reef industries

In coastal areas, extreme weather events, such as floods and cyclones, can have debilitating effects on the social and economic viability of marine-based industries. In March 2011, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority implemented an Extreme Weather Response Program, following a period of intense flooding and cyclonic activity between December 2010 and February 2011. In this paper, we discuss the results of a project within the Program, which aimed to: (1) assess the impacts of extreme weather events on regional tourism and commercial fishing industries; and (2) develop and road-test an impact assessment matrix to improve government and industry responses to extreme weather events. Results revealed that extreme weather events both directly and indirectly affected all five of the measured categories, i.e. ecological, personal, social, infrastructure and economic components. The severity of these impacts, combined with their location and the nature of their business, influenced how tourism operators and fishers assessed the impact of the events (low, medium, high or extreme). The impact assessment tool was revised following feedback obtained during stakeholder workshops and may prove useful for managers in responding to potential direct and indirect impacts of future extreme weather events on affected marine industries. © 2013 Planning Institute Australia.

A method for risk analysis across governance systems : a great barrier reef case study

Healthy governance systems are key to delivering sound environmental management outcomes from global to local scales. There are, however, surprisingly few risk assessment methods that can pinpoint those domains and sub-domains within governance systems that are most likely to influence good environmental outcomes at any particular scale, or those if absent or dysfunctional, most likely to prevent effective environmental management. This paper proposes a new risk assessment method for analysing governance systems. This method is then tested through its preliminary application to a significant real-world context: governance as it relates to the health of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The GBR exists at a supra-regional scale along most of the north eastern coast of Australia. Brodie et al (2012 Mar. Pollut. Bull. 65 81-100) have recently reviewed the state and trend of the health of the GBR, finding that overall trends remain of significant concern. At the same time, official international concern over the governance of the reef has recently been signalled globally by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). These environmental and political contexts make the GBR an ideal candidate for use in testing and reviewing the application of improved tools for governance risk assessment. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Inclusion of tapered tubes in enhancing the crash performance of automotive frontal structures

This paper treats the design and analysis of an energy absorbing system. Experimental tests were conducted on a prototype, and these tests were used to validate a finite element model of the system. The model was then used to analyze the response of the system under dynamic impact loading. The response was compared with that of a similar system consisting of straight circular tubes, empty and foam-filled conical tubes. Three types of such supplementary devices were included in the energy absorbing system to examine the crush behavior and energy absorption capacity when subjected to axial and oblique impact loadings. The findings were used to develop design guidelines and recommendations for the implementation of tapered tubes in energy absorbing systems. To this end, the system was conceptual in form such that it could be adopted for a variety of applications. Nevertheless, for convenience, the approach in this study is to treat the system as a demonstrator car bumper system used to absorb impact energy during minor frontal collisions.

Chasing the great Australian dream : definition of "an ideal home" among baby boomers

In Australia, the idea of home ownership or The Great Australian Dream is still perceived as the main achievement of every Australian’s life. Perception of an ideal home is changing over the decades. Each generation has special requirements criteria which foster their dwelling space. This research identifies and compares three generations’ (Baby Boomers, Generation X and Generation Y) demographics, special requirements and perceptions regarding their ideal home. The examination of previous research and literature into the Queensland context reveals that the Baby Boomers population of people 65 and older is currently 11.8% of the state population and is expected to grow to almost one quarter of the population by 2051. This is the highest growth rate among these three generations. Further analysis of these three generations’ status and requirements shows that aging is the most critical issue for the housing systems. This is especially the case for Baby Boomers due to their demand for support services and health care in the home. The study reveals that ‘ageing in place’, is a preferred option for the aged. This raises questions as to how well the housing system and neighbourhood environments are able to support ageing in place, and what aging factors should be taken into consideration when designing Baby boomer’s home to facilitate health and wellbeing. Therefore, this research designed a qualitative approach to investigate Australian Baby Boomers homes around Queensland, predominantly in the Brisbane area, using semi-structured interviews and observations. It aims to find out the level of satisfaction of Australian Baby Boomers with their current home and their preferences and requirements in light of their ideal home. The findings contribute new knowledge in the light of ideal home mechanisms. A set of strategies has been developed from the findings that may help improve the level of comfort, safety and satisfaction that Baby Boomers experience in their current and future homes.

A great charmer : The peripatetic and adventurous Patrick Leigh Fermor

Review of Patrick Leigh Fermor : An Adventure by Artemis Cooper (John Murray, 2012).

Discerning the timing and cause of historical mortality events in modern Porites from the Great Barrier Reef

The life history strategies of massive Porites corals make them a valuable resource not only as key providers of reef structure, but also as recorders of past environmental change. Yet recent documented evidence of an unprecedented increase in the frequency of mortality in Porites warrants investigation into the history of mortality and associated drivers. To achieve this, both an accurate chronology and an understanding of the life history strategies of Porites are necessary. Sixty-two individual Uranium–Thorium (U–Th) dates from 50 dead massive Porites colonies from the central inshore region of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) revealed the timing of mortality to have occurred predominantly over two main periods from 1989.2 ± 4.1 to 2001.4 ± 4.1, and from 2006.4 ± 1.8 to 2008.4 ± 2.2 A.D., with a small number of colonies dating earlier. Overall, the peak ages of mortality are significantly correlated with maximum sea-surface temperature anomalies. Despite potential sampling bias, the frequency of mortality increased dramatically post-1980. These observations are similar to the results reported for the Southern South China Sea. High resolution measurements of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca obtained from a well preserved sample that died in 1994.6 ± 2.3 revealed that the time of death occurred at the peak of sea surface temperatures (SST) during the austral summer. In contrast, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca analysis in two colonies dated to 2006.9 ± 3.0 and 2008.3 ± 2.0, suggest that both died after the austral winter. An increase in Sr/Ca ratios and the presence of low Mg-calcite cements (as determined by SEM and elemental ratio analysis) in one of the colonies was attributed to stressful conditions that may have persisted for some time prior to mortality. For both colonies, however, the timing of mortality coincides with the 4th and 6th largest flood events reported for the Burdekin River in the past 60 years, implying that factors associated with terrestrial runoff may have been responsible for mortality. Our results show that a combination of U–Th and elemental ratio geochemistry can potentially be used to precisely and accurately determine the timing and season of mortality in modern massive Porites corals. For reefs where long-term monitoring data are absent, the ability to reconstruct historical events in coral communities may prove useful to reef managers by providing some baseline knowledge on disturbance history and associated drivers.