Modeling entangled dynamics: comparison between stochastic single-chain and multichain models

To test the effectiveness of stochastic single-chain models in describing the dynamics of entangled polymers, we systematically compare one such model; the slip-spring model; to a multichain model solved using stochastic molecular dynamics(MD) simulations (the Kremer-Grest model). The comparison involves investigating if the single-chain model can adequately describe both a microscopic dynamical and a macroscopic rheological quantity for a range of chain lengths. Choosing a particular chain length in the slip-spring model, the parameter values that best reproduce the mean-square displacement of a group of monomers is determined by fitting toMDdata. Using the same set of parameters we then test if the predictions of the mean-square displacements for other chain lengths agree with the MD calculations. We followed this by a comparison of the time dependent stress relaxation moduli obtained from the two models for a range of chain lengths. After identifying a limitation of the original slip-spring model in describing the static structure of the polymer chain as seen in MD, we remedy this by introducing a pairwise repulsive potential between the monomers in the chains. Poor agreement of the mean-square monomer displacements at short times can be rectified by the use of generalized Langevin equations for the dynamics and resulted in significantly improved agreement.

Fatores de influência na produção de leite bovino sobre os níveis da contagem bacteriana total

The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of milking procedures on the levels of total bacterial count (TBC) in bovine milk. In the first study the influences of procedures for hygienic milking, cleaning of milking equipment and milk cooling tanks on the TBC levels were evaluated. Four bulk samples of milk were collected from each tank in eight properties for TBC analysis, employing the flow cytometry method. A questionnaire was applied in each property to assess the current situation of milking procedures on each production system that took part on this research, followed by training of employees in good agricultural practices in the production of milk and monitoring of the TBC measurements. The methodology for analysis of longitudinal data was considered, focusing on random effects models. The results showed that the handling procedures for milking and the cleanliness of the cooling tank contributed to a further reduction in the levels of TBC raw milk cooling tanks. The second study aimed to describe the percentage of the properties that comply with the Normative Instruction Nº 51 (Brazil s IN 51) with regard to total bacterial count (TBC) in bovine milk. The study was conducted from January 2010 to July 2011. Milk samples were collected from the eight properties selected for TBC analysis by the flow cytometry method. Again, on each property a questionnaire was applied to assess the current situation of milking procedures on each production system that took part on this research, followed by training of employees in good agricultural practices in the production of milk and monitoring of the TBC measurements. The methodology of marginal models based on Generalized Estimate Equations (GEEs) was followed in the statistical analysis. The results showed that the handling procedures of the milking and the cleanliness of the cooling tanks contributed to a considerable percentage of the properties that reached the limits of TBC established by IN 51

Teorias f(R) de gravidade na formulação de Palatini

In this dissertation, after a brief review on the Einstein s General Relativity Theory and its application to the Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) cosmological models, we present and discuss the alternative theories of gravity dubbed f(R) gravity. These theories come about when one substitute in the Einstein-Hilbert action the Ricci curvature R by some well behaved nonlinear function f(R). They provide an alternative way to explain the current cosmic acceleration with no need of invoking neither a dark energy component, nor the existence of extra spatial dimensions. In dealing with f(R) gravity, two different variational approaches may be followed, namely the metric and the Palatini formalisms, which lead to very different equations of motion. We briefly describe the metric formalism and then concentrate on the Palatini variational approach to the gravity action. We make a systematic and detailed derivation of the field equations for Palatini f(R) gravity, which generalize the Einsteins equations of General Relativity, and obtain also the generalized Friedmann equations, which can be used for cosmological tests. As an example, using recent compilations of type Ia Supernovae observations, we show how the f(R) = R − fi/Rn class of gravity theories explain the recent observed acceleration of the universe by placing reasonable constraints on the free parameters fi and n. We also examine the question as to whether Palatini f(R) gravity theories permit space-times in which causality, a fundamental issue in any physical theory [22], is violated. As is well known, in General Relativity there are solutions to the viii field equations that have causal anomalies in the form of closed time-like curves, the renowned Gödel model being the best known example of such a solution. Here we show that every perfect-fluid Gödel-type solution of Palatini f(R) gravity with density and pressure p that satisfy the weak energy condition + p 0 is necessarily isometric to the Gödel geometry, demonstrating, therefore, that these theories present causal anomalies in the form of closed time-like curves. This result extends a theorem on Gödel-type models to the framework of Palatini f(R) gravity theory. We derive an expression for a critical radius rc (beyond which causality is violated) for an arbitrary Palatini f(R) theory. The expression makes apparent that the violation of causality depends on the form of f(R) and on the matter content components. We concretely examine the Gödel-type perfect-fluid solutions in the f(R) = R−fi/Rn class of Palatini gravity theories, and show that for positive matter density and for fi and n in the range permitted by the observations, these theories do not admit the Gödel geometry as a perfect-fluid solution of its field equations. In this sense, f(R) gravity theory remedies the causal pathology in the form of closed timelike curves which is allowed in General Relativity. We also examine the violation of causality of Gödel-type by considering a single scalar field as the matter content. For this source, we show that Palatini f(R) gravity gives rise to a unique Gödeltype solution with no violation of causality. Finally, we show that by combining a perfect fluid plus a scalar field as sources of Gödel-type geometries, we obtain both solutions in the form of closed time-like curves, as well as solutions with no violation of causality

Stochastic exponential stability of singular linear systems with Markov jump parameters

This paper deals with exponential stability of discrete-time singular systems with Markov jump parameters. We propose a set of coupled generalized Lyapunov equations (CGLE) that provides sufficient conditions to check this property for this class of systems. A method for solving the obtained CGLE is also presented, based on iterations of standard singular Lyapunov equations. We present also a numerical example to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach we are proposing.

Estimativas da radiação global incidente em superfícies inclinadas com base na razáo de insolação

Estimating equations of global radiation based on the sunshine duration were proposed for horizontal surface and with inclination of 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85° facing the North in Botucatu, SP, Brazil, in monthly, seasonal and annual groupings of data. Simple linear correlations were applied (for definition of the linear and angular coefficients of Angstrom-Prescott model), in a database measured in all three inclinations in different periods (22.85°: 04/1998 to 07/2001; 12.85°: 08/2011 to 02/2003; and 32.85°: 03/2003 to 12/2007) concomitant with horizontal measures and sunshine duration. The statistical performance of the model was analysed by the means absolute error (MBE), the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) and the index adjustment (d). The minimum global radiation transmissivity varied from 14.35% in August (12.85°) to 27.86% in December (32.85°) and the maximum transmissivity ranged between 62.10% and 78.90%, for June (32.85°) and December (12.85°). Increasing the angle of inclination surface increased the scattering and decreased the index of adjustment and performance. The worst results were found for application of the seasonal and annual models in the months of autumn and winter for 32.85° (RMSE below 42.93% and adjustment superior to 0.4693).

Análise de três métodos de estimativa da evapotranspiração de referência para a região de Pradópolis - SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Ciência do Solo) - FCAV

Portadores quentes: modelo browniano

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Metodologias estatísticas na análise de germinação de sementes de mamona

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Comparação dos efeitos da hidrocinesioterapia e do treinamento físico realizado no solo em hipertensas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Parameterschätzung in zeitdiskreten ergodischen Markov-Prozessen am Beispiel des Cox-Ingersoll-Ross-Modells

In dieser Arbeit geht es um die Schätzung von Parametern in zeitdiskreten ergodischen Markov-Prozessen im allgemeinen und im CIR-Modell im besonderen. Beim CIR-Modell handelt es sich um eine stochastische Differentialgleichung, die von Cox, Ingersoll und Ross (1985) zur Beschreibung der Dynamik von Zinsraten vorgeschlagen wurde. Problemstellung ist die Schätzung der Parameter des Drift- und des Diffusionskoeffizienten aufgrund von äquidistanten diskreten Beobachtungen des CIR-Prozesses. Nach einer kurzen Einführung in das CIR-Modell verwenden wir die insbesondere von Bibby und Sørensen untersuchte Methode der Martingal-Schätzfunktionen und -Schätzgleichungen, um das Problem der Parameterschätzung in ergodischen Markov-Prozessen zunächst ganz allgemein zu untersuchen. Im Anschluss an Untersuchungen von Sørensen (1999) werden hinreichende Bedingungen (im Sinne von Regularitätsvoraussetzungen an die Schätzfunktion) für die Existenz, starke Konsistenz und asymptotische Normalität von Lösungen einer Martingal-Schätzgleichung angegeben. Angewandt auf den Spezialfall der Likelihood-Schätzung stellen diese Bedingungen zugleich lokal-asymptotische Normalität des Modells sicher. Ferner wird ein einfaches Kriterium für Godambe-Heyde-Optimalität von Schätzfunktionen angegeben und skizziert, wie dies in wichtigen Spezialfällen zur expliziten Konstruktion optimaler Schätzfunktionen verwendet werden kann. Die allgemeinen Resultate werden anschließend auf das diskretisierte CIR-Modell angewendet. Wir analysieren einige von Overbeck und Rydén (1997) vorgeschlagene Schätzer für den Drift- und den Diffusionskoeffizienten, welche als Lösungen quadratischer Martingal-Schätzfunktionen definiert sind, und berechnen das optimale Element in dieser Klasse. Abschließend verallgemeinern wir Ergebnisse von Overbeck und Rydén (1997), indem wir die Existenz einer stark konsistenten und asymptotisch normalen Lösung der Likelihood-Gleichung zeigen und lokal-asymptotische Normalität für das CIR-Modell ohne Einschränkungen an den Parameterraum beweisen.

Semiparametric Normal Transformation Models for Spatially Correlated Survival Data

There is an emerging interest in modeling spatially correlated survival data in biomedical and epidemiological studies. In this paper, we propose a new class of semiparametric normal transformation models for right censored spatially correlated survival data. This class of models assumes that survival outcomes marginally follow a Cox proportional hazard model with unspecified baseline hazard, and their joint distribution is obtained by transforming survival outcomes to normal random variables, whose joint distribution is assumed to be multivariate normal with a spatial correlation structure. A key feature of the class of semiparametric normal transformation models is that it provides a rich class of spatial survival models where regression coefficients have population average interpretation and the spatial dependence of survival times is conveniently modeled using the transformed variables by flexible normal random fields. We study the relationship of the spatial correlation structure of the transformed normal variables and the dependence measures of the original survival times. Direct nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation in such models is practically prohibited due to the high dimensional intractable integration of the likelihood function and the infinite dimensional nuisance baseline hazard parameter. We hence develop a class of spatial semiparametric estimating equations, which conveniently estimate the population-level regression coefficients and the dependence parameters simultaneously. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators, and show that they are consistent and asymptotically normal. The proposed method is illustrated with an analysis of data from the East Boston Ashma Study and its performance is evaluated using simulations.

Physical long-term health problems and mental comorbidity: evidence from Vietnam

OBJECTIVE: The mental health of children living in low-income countries remains a neglected research area despite the high burden of disease. This study is one of the first that examines the effects of long-term physical health problems on child mental health disorders in a low-income country and investigates whether this association is modified by the socio-economic status of the child's family. METHODS: Community-based cross-sectional survey of 975 eight-year-old children from 20 sites in Vietnam. Long-term physical health problems were measured by a caregiver report and included conditions such as anaemia, congenital malformation, physical disability and skin problems. Child mental disorders were assessed using the strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ). Generalised estimating equations models were fitted to explore the association between long-term physical health problems and child mental disorders. RESULTS: Vietnamese children who suffer from long-term physical health problems have odds 2:1 times greater than children without long-term physical health problems of having a mental disorder (95% CI 1.2 to 3.6, p = 0.006). No significant interaction with socio-economic status was found. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed a high burden of mental disorders among physically ill children, re-enforcing the idea that there is "no health without mental health". While this association needs to be explored longitudinally, children with long-term health problems may be a visible group for targeted mental-health interventions.

How reliable is an undetectable viral load?

OBJECTIVES: An article by the Swiss AIDS Commission states that patients with stably suppressed viraemia [i.e. several successive HIV-1 RNA plasma concentrations (viral loads, VL) below the limits of detection during 6 months or more of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)] are unlikely to be infectious. Questions then arise: how reliable is the undetectability of the VL, given the history of measures? What factors determine reliability? METHODS: We assessed the probability (henceforth termed reliability) that the n+1 VL would exceed 50 or 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL when the nth one had been <50 copies/mL in 6168 patients of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who were continuing to take HAART between 2003 and 2007. General estimating equations were used to analyse potential factors of reliability. RESULTS: With a cut-off at 50 copies/mL, reliability was 84.5% (n=1), increasing to 94.5% (n=5). Compliance, the current type of HAART and the first antiretroviral therapy (ART) received (HAART or not) were predictive factors of reliability. With a cut-off at 1000 copies/mL, reliability was 97.5% (n=1), increasing to 99.1% (n=4). Chart review revealed that patients had stopped their treatment, admitted to major problems with compliance or were taking non-HAART ART in 72.2% of these cases. Viral escape caused by resistance was found in 5.6%. No explanation was found in the charts of 22.2% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: After several successive VLs at <50 copies/mL, reliability reaches approximately 94% with a cut-off of 50 copies/mL and approximately 99% with a cut-off at 1000 copies/mL. Compliance is the most important factor predicting reliability.

Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpes virus and response to antiretroviral therapy: a prospective study of HIV-infected adults

BACKGROUND The possible impact of coinfection with the Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpes virus (KSHV) on the response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is unknown. Prospective studies are rare, particularly in Africa. METHODS We enrolled a prospective cohort of HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Johannesburg, South Africa. The subjects were defined as seropositive to KSHV if they were reactive to either KSHV lytic K8.1 or latent Orf73 antigen or to both. The subjects were followed from ART initiation until 18 months of treatment. HIV viral load and CD4 counts were tested 6 monthly. Linear generalized estimating and log-binomial regression models were used to estimate the effect of KSHV infection on immunologic recovery and response and HIV viral load suppression within 18 months after ART initiation. RESULTS Three hundred eighty-five subjects initiating ART from November 2008 to March 2009 were considered to be eligible including 184 (48%) KSHV+. The KSHV+ group was similar to the KSHV- in terms of age, gender, initiating CD4 count, body mass index, tuberculosis, and hemoglobin levels. The KSHV+ group gained a similar number of cells at 6 [difference of 10 cells per cubic millimeter, 95% confidence interval (CI): -11 to 31], 12 (3 cells per cubic millimeter, 95% CI: -19 to 25), and 18 months (24 cells per cubic millimeter, 95% CI: -13 to 61) compared with that gained by the KSHV- group. Adjusted relative risk of failure to suppress viral load to <400 copies per milliliter (1.03; 95% CI: 0.90 to 1.17) were similar for KSHV+ and KSHV- by 6 months on treatment. CONCLUSIONS In a population with a high KSHV prevalence, HIV-positive adults coinfected with KSHV achieved similar immunologic and virologic responses to ART early after treatment initiation compared with those with KSHV-.

Statistical and methodological challenges for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment in Rio Grande Valley of Texas

In recent years, disaster preparedness through assessment of medical and special needs persons (MSNP) has taken a center place in public eye in effect of frequent natural disasters such as hurricanes, storm surge or tsunami due to climate change and increased human activity on our planet. Statistical methods complex survey design and analysis have equally gained significance as a consequence. However, there exist many challenges still, to infer such assessments over the target population for policy level advocacy and implementation. ^ Objective. This study discusses the use of some of the statistical methods for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment to facilitate local and state governments for its policy level decision making and logistic support to avoid any loss of life and property in future calamities. ^ Methods. In order to obtain precise and unbiased estimates for Medical Special Needs Persons (MSNP) and disaster preparedness for evacuation in Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas, a stratified and cluster-randomized multi-stage sampling design was implemented. US School of Public Health, Brownsville surveyed 3088 households in three counties namely Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy. Multiple statistical methods were implemented and estimates were obtained taking into count probability of selection and clustering effects. Statistical methods for data analysis discussed were Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR), Survey Linear Regression (Svy-Reg), Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) and Multilevel Mixed Models (MLM) all with and without sampling weights. ^ Results. Estimated population for RGV was 1,146,796. There were 51.5% female, 90% Hispanic, 73% married, 56% unemployed and 37% with their personal transport. 40% people attained education up to elementary school, another 42% reaching high school and only 18% went to college. Median household income is less than $15,000/year. MSNP estimated to be 44,196 (3.98%) [95% CI: 39,029; 51,123]. All statistical models are in concordance with MSNP estimates ranging from 44,000 to 48,000. MSNP estimates for statistical methods are: MLR (47,707; 95% CI: 42,462; 52,999), MLR with weights (45,882; 95% CI: 39,792; 51,972), Bootstrap Regression (47,730; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,785), GEE (47,649; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,670), GEE with weights (45,076; 95% CI: 39,029; 51,123), Svy-Reg (44,196; 95% CI: 40,004; 48,390) and MLM (46,513; 95% CI: 39,869; 53,157). ^ Conclusion. RGV is a flood zone, most susceptible to hurricanes and other natural disasters. People in the region are mostly Hispanic, under-educated with least income levels in the U.S. In case of any disaster people in large are incapacitated with only 37% have their personal transport to take care of MSNP. Local and state government’s intervention in terms of planning, preparation and support for evacuation is necessary in any such disaster to avoid loss of precious human life. ^ Key words: Complex Surveys, statistical methods, multilevel models, cluster randomized, sampling weights, raking, survey regression, generalized estimation equations (GEE), random effects, Intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC).^