Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Model-order selection in Zernike polynomial expansion of corneal surfaces using the efficient detection criterion

Corneal-height data are typically measured with videokeratoscopes and modeled using a set of orthogonal Zernike polynomials. We address the estimation of the number of Zernike polynomials, which is formalized as a model-order selection problem in linear regression. Classical information-theoretic criteria tend to overestimate the corneal surface due to the weakness of their penalty functions, while bootstrap-based techniques tend to underestimate the surface or require extensive processing. In this paper, we propose to use the efficient detection criterion (EDC), which has the same general form of information-theoretic-based criteria, as an alternative to estimating the optimal number of Zernike polynomials. We first show, via simulations, that the EDC outperforms a large number of information-theoretic criteria and resampling-based techniques. We then illustrate that using the EDC for real corneas results in models that are in closer agreement with clinical expectations and provides means for distinguishing normal corneal surfaces from astigmatic and keratoconic surfaces.

The effect of high concentrations of calcium hydroxide in neutralised synthetic supernatant liquor : implications for alumina refinery residues

The presence of calcium hydroxide (Ca(OH)2) in Bayer residue slurry inhibits the effectiveness of the seawater neutralisation process to reduce the pH and aluminium concentration in the residue. An increase in the slurry pH (reversion), after seawater neutralisation, is caused by the dissolution of calcium hydroxide and hydrocalumite (solid components found in bauxite refinery residue). Reversion was not observed when the final solution pH was greater than 10.5, due to hydrocalumite being in a state of equilibrium at high pH. Hydrocalumite has been found to form during the neutralisation process when high concentrations of calcium hydroxide are present in the residue liquor. The dissolution of hydrocalumite releases hydroxyl (OH-) and aluminium ions back into solution after the seawater neutralisation (SWN) process, which causes pH and aluminium reversion to occur. This investigation looks at the effect of Ca(OH)2 and subsequently hydrocalumite on the pH and aluminium concentration in bauxite refinery residue liquors after the SWN process.

Fast hole surface conduction observed for indoline sensitizer dyes immobilized at fluorine-doped tin oxide - TiO2 surfaces

The indoline dyes D102, D131, D149, and D205 have been characterized when adsorved on fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) and TiO2 electrode surfaces. Adsorption from 50:50 acetonitrile - tert-butanol onto flourine-doped tin oxide (FTO) allows approximate Langmuirian binding constants of 6.5 x 10(4), 2.01 x 10(3), 2.0 x 10(4), and 1.5 x 10(4) mol-1 dm3, respectively, to be determined. Voltammetric data obtained in acetonitrile/0.1 M NBu4PF6 indicate reversible on-electron oxidation at Emid = 0.94, 0.91, 0.88, and 0.88 V vs Ag/AgCI(3 M KCI), respectively, with dye aggregation (at high coverage) causing additional peak features at more positive potentials. Slow chemical degradation processes and electron transfer catalysis for iodine oxidation were observed for all four oxidezed indolinium cations. When adsorbed onto TiO2 nanoparticle films (ca. 9nm particle diameter and ca.3/um thickness of FTO0, reversible voltammetric responses with Emid = 1.08, 1.156, 0.92 and 0.95 V vs Ag/AgCI(3 M KCI), respectively, suggest exceptionally fast hole hopping diffusion (with Dapp > 5 x 10(-9) m2 s-1) for adsorbed layers of four indoline dyes, presumably due to pie-pie stacking in surface aggregates. Slow dye degradation is shown to affect charge transport via electron hopping. Spectrelectrochemical data for the adsorbed indoline dyes on FTO-TiO2 revealed a red-shift of absorption peaks after oxidation and the presence of a strong charge transfer band in the near-IR region. The implications of the indoline dye reactivity and fast hole mobility for solar cell devices are discussed.

Nanostructured metal oxides as adsorbents and photocatalysts

This research underlines the extensive application of nanostructured metal oxides in environmental systems such as hazardous waste remediation and water purification. This study tries to forge a new understanding of the complexity of adsorption and photocatalysis in the process of water treatment. Sodium niobate doped with a different amount of tantalum, was prepared via a hydrothermal reaction and was observed to be able to adsorb highly hazardous bivalent radioactive isotopes such as Sr2+ and Ra2+ions. This study facilitates the preparation of Nb-based adsorbents for efficiently removing toxic radioactive ions from contaminated water and also identifies the importance of understanding the influence of heterovalent substitution in microporous frameworks. Clay adsorbents were prepared via a two-step method to remove anionic and non-ionic herbicides from water. Firstly, layered beidellite clay was treated with acid in a hydrothermal process; secondly, common silane coupling agents, 3-chloro-propyl trimethoxysilane or triethoxy silane, were grafted onto the acid treated samples to prepare the adsorption materials. In order to isolate the effect of the clay surface, we compared the adsorption property of clay adsorbents with ƒ×-Al2O3 nanofibres grafted with the same functional groups. Thin alumina (£^-Al2O3) nanofibres were modified by the grafting of two organosilane agents 3-chloropropyltriethoxysilane and octyl triethoxysilane onto the surface, for the adsorptive removal of alachlor and imazaquin herbicides from water. The formation of organic groups during the functionalisation process established super hydrophobic sites along the surfaces and those non-polar regions of the surfaces were able to make close contact with the organic pollutants. A new structure of anatase crystals linked to clay fragments was synthesised by the reaction of TiOSO4 with laponite clay for the degradation of pesticides. Based on the Ti/clay ratio, these new catalysts showed a high degradation rate when compared with P25. Moreover, immobilized TiO2 on laponite clay fragments could be readily separated out from a slurry system after the photocatalytic reaction. Using a series of partial phase transition methods, an effective catalyst with fibril morphology was prepared for the degradation of different types of phenols and trace amount of herbicides from water. Both H-titanate and TiO2-(B) fibres coated with anatase nanocrystal were studied. When compared with a laponite clay photocatalyst, it was found that anatase dotted TiO2-(B) fibres prepared by a 45 h hydrothermal treatment followed by calcination were not only superior in performance in photocatalysis but could also be readily separated from a slurry system after photocatalytic reactions. This study has laid the foundation for the development of the ability to fabricate highly efficient nanostructured solids for the removal of radioactive ions and organic pollutants from contaminated water. These results now seem set to contribute to the development of advanced water purification devices in the future. These modified nanostructured materials with unusual properties have broadened their application range beyond their traditional use as adsorbents, to also encompass the storage of nuclear waste after concentrating from contaminated water.

Early osteogenic response of osteoprogenitor cells on modified titanium implant surfaces leads to improved osteogenesis

Background: Implant surface micro-roughness and hydrophilicity are known to improve the osteogenic differentiation potential of osteoprogenitor cells. This study was aimed to determine whether topographically and chemically modified titanium implant surfaces stimulate an initial osteogenic response in osteoprogenitor cells, which leads to their improved osteogenesis. ----- ----- Methods: Statistical analysis of microarray gene expression profiling data available from studies (at 72 hours) on sand-blasted, large grit acid etched (SLA) titanium surfaces was performed. Subsequently, human osteoprogenitor cells were cultured on SLActive (hydrophilic SLA), SLA and polished titanium surfaces for 24 hours, 3 days and 7 days. The expression of BMP2, BMP6, BMP2K, SP1, ACVR1, FZD6, WNT5A, PDLIM7, ITGB1, ITGA2, OCN, OPN, ALP and RUNX2 were studied using qPCR. ----- ----- Results: Several functional clusters related to osteogenesis were highlighted when genes showing statistically significant differences (from microarray data at 72 hours) in expression on SLA surface (compared with control surface) were analysed using DAVID (online tool). This indicates that differentiation begins very early in response to modified titanium surfaces. At 24 hours, ACVR1 (BMP pathway), FZD6 (Wnt pathway) and SP1 (TGF-β pathway) were significantly up-regulated in cultures on the SLActive surface compared to the other surfaces. WNT5A and ITGB1 also showed higher expression on the modified surfaces. Gene expression patterns on Day 3 and Day 7 did not reveal any significant differences.----- ----- Conclusion: These results suggest that the initial molecular response of osteoprogenitor cells to modified titanium surfaces may be responsible for an improved osteogenic response via the BMP and Wnt signalling pathways.

Transcutaneous immunization with novel lipid-based adjuvants induces protection against gastric Helicobacter pylori infection

The development of vaccines to combat pathogens that infect across mucosal surfaces has been a major goal of vaccine research. Successful mucosal vaccination requires the co-administration of adjuvants that can overcome the state of immune tolerance normally associated with mucosal application of proteins. In the case of oral immunization, delivery systems are also required to protect vaccine antigens against destruction by gastric pH and digestive enzymes. Furthermore, adjuvants used for mucosal delivery must be free of neurotoxic effects like those induced by the commonly used experimental mucosal adjuvant cholera toxin. Maintenance of the "cold chain" is also essential for the effectiveness of any vaccine and adjuvants/delivery systems that enhance the stability of a vaccine would offer a significant advantage. Needle-free methods of vaccination that induce protective immunity at multiple mucosal surfaces are also desirable for rapid vaccination of large populations. In the present study we show that transcutaneous immunization (TCI) using Lipid C, a novel lipid-based matrix originally developed for oral immunization, containing soluble Helicobacter sonicate significantly reduces the gastric bacterial burden in mice following gastric challenge with live Helicobacter pylori. Protection is associated with the production of splenic gamma interferon and gastric IgA and was achieved without the co-administration of potent and potentially toxic adjuvants, although protection was further enhanced by inclusion of CpG-ODN and cholera toxin in the lipid delivery system.