Modulating membership grades to gain consensus for fuzzy set uncertainty values in a clinical decision support system

This paper deals with a very important issue in any knowledge engineering discipline: the accurate representation and modelling of real life data and its processing by human experts. The work is applied to the GRiST Mental Health Risk Screening Tool for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems. The complexity of risk data and the wide variations in clinicians' expert opinions make it difficult to elicit representations of uncertainty that are an accurate and meaningful consensus. It requires integrating each expert's estimation of a continuous distribution of uncertainty across a range of values. This paper describes an algorithm that generates a consensual distribution at the same time as measuring the consistency of inputs. Hence it provides a measure of the confidence in the particular data item's risk contribution at the input stage and can help give an indication of the quality of subsequent risk predictions. © 2010 IEEE.

A Generalized Fuzzy Linguistic Model for Predicting Component Concentrations in an Optical Gas Sensing System

Motivated by environmental protection concerns, monitoring the flue gas of thermal power plant is now often mandatory due to the need to ensure that emission levels stay within safe limits. Optical based gas sensing systems are increasingly employed for this purpose, with regression techniques used to relate gas optical absorption spectra to the concentrations of specific gas components of interest (NOx, SO2 etc.). Accurately predicting gas concentrations from absorption spectra remains a challenging problem due to the presence of nonlinearities in the relationships and the high-dimensional and correlated nature of the spectral data. This article proposes a generalized fuzzy linguistic model (GFLM) to address this challenge. The GFLM is made up of a series of “If-Then” fuzzy rules. The absorption spectra are input variables in the rule antecedent. The rule consequent is a general nonlinear polynomial function of the absorption spectra. Model parameters are estimated using least squares and gradient descent optimization algorithms. The performance of GFLM is compared with other traditional prediction models, such as partial least squares, support vector machines, multilayer perceptron neural networks and radial basis function networks, for two real flue gas spectral datasets: one from a coal-fired power plant and one from a gas-fired power plant. The experimental results show that the generalized fuzzy linguistic model has good predictive ability, and is competitive with alternative approaches, while having the added advantage of providing an interpretable model.

A generalized fuzzy linguistic model for predicting component concentrations in an optical gas sensing system

Motivated by environmental protection concerns, monitoring the flue gas of thermal power plant is now often mandatory due to the need to ensure that emission levels stay within safe limits. Optical based gas sensing systems are increasingly employed for this purpose, with regression techniques used to relate gas optical absorption spectra to the concentrations of specific gas components of interest (NO_x, SO₂ etc.). Accurately predicting gas concentrations from absorption spectra remains a challenging problem due to the presence of nonlinearities in the relationships and the high-dimensional and correlated nature of the spectral data. This article proposes a generalized fuzzy linguistic model (GFLM) to address this challenge. The GFLM is made up of a series of “If-Then” fuzzy rules. The absorption spectra are input variables in the rule antecedent. The rule consequent is a general nonlinear polynomial function of the absorption spectra. Model parameters are estimated using least squares and gradient descent optimization algorithms. The performance of GFLM is compared with other traditional prediction models, such as partial least squares, support vector machines, multilayer perceptron neural networks and radial basis function networks, for two real flue gas spectral datasets: one from a coal-fired power plant and one from a gas-fired power plant. The experimental results show that the generalized fuzzy linguistic model has good predictive ability, and is competitive with alternative approaches, while having the added advantage of providing an interpretable model.

Analysis of Transmission System Adequacy Considering the Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow

Power flow calculations are one of the most important tools for power system planning and operation. The need to account for uncertainties when performing power flow studies led, among others methods, to the development of the fuzzy power flow (FPF). This kind of models is especially interesting when a scarcity of information exists, which is a common situation in liberalized power systems (where generation and commercialization of electricity are market activities). In this framework, the symmetric/constrained fuzzy power flow (SFPF/CFPF) was proposed in order to avoid some of the problems of the original FPF model. The SFPF/CFPF models are suitable to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy “reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity” as defined, for instance, in the European Directive 2009/72/EC. In this work it is illustrated how the SFPF/CFPF may be used to evaluate the impact on the adequacy of a transmission system originated by specific investments on new network elements

Data-stream driven Fuzzy-granular approaches for system maintenance

Intelligent systems are currently inherent to the society, supporting a synergistic human-machine collaboration. Beyond economical and climate factors, energy consumption is strongly affected by the performance of computing systems. The quality of software functioning may invalidate any improvement attempt. In addition, data-driven machine learning algorithms are the basis for human-centered applications, being their interpretability one of the most important features of computational systems. Software maintenance is a critical discipline to support automatic and life-long system operation. As most software registers its inner events by means of logs, log analysis is an approach to keep system operation. Logs are characterized as Big data assembled in large-flow streams, being unstructured, heterogeneous, imprecise, and uncertain. This thesis addresses fuzzy and neuro-granular methods to provide maintenance solutions applied to anomaly detection (AD) and log parsing (LP), dealing with data uncertainty, identifying ideal time periods for detailed software analyses. LP provides deeper semantics interpretation of the anomalous occurrences. The solutions evolve over time and are general-purpose, being highly applicable, scalable, and maintainable. Granular classification models, namely, Fuzzy set-Based evolving Model (FBeM), evolving Granular Neural Network (eGNN), and evolving Gaussian Fuzzy Classifier (eGFC), are compared considering the AD problem. The evolving Log Parsing (eLP) method is proposed to approach the automatic parsing applied to system logs. All the methods perform recursive mechanisms to create, update, merge, and delete information granules according with the data behavior. For the first time in the evolving intelligent systems literature, the proposed method, eLP, is able to process streams of words and sentences. Essentially, regarding to AD accuracy, FBeM achieved (85.64+-3.69)%; eGNN reached (96.17+-0.78)%; eGFC obtained (92.48+-1.21)%; and eLP reached (96.05+-1.04)%. Besides being competitive, eLP particularly generates a log grammar, and presents a higher level of model interpretability.

Multi-objective analysis of impacts of distributed generation placement on the operational characteristics of networks for distribution system planning

Recent advances in energy technology generation and new directions in electricity regulation have made distributed generation (DG) more widespread, with consequent significant impacts on the operational characteristics of distribution networks. For this reason, new methods for identifying such impacts are needed, together with research and development of new tools and resources to maintain and facilitate continued expansion towards DG. This paper presents a study aimed at determining appropriate DG sites for distribution systems. The main considerations which determine DG sites are also presented, together with an account of the advantages gained from correct DG placement. The paper intends to define some quantitative and qualitative parameters evaluated by Digsilent (R), GARP3 (R) and DSA-GD software. A multi-objective approach based on the Bellman-Zadeh algorithm and fuzzy logic is used to determine appropriate DG sites. The study also aims to find acceptable DG locations both for distribution system feeders, as well as for nodes inside a given feeder. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A classification methodology for the risk of weed infestation using fuzzy logic

Despite modern weed control practices, weeds continue to be a threat to agricultural production. Considering the variability of weeds, a classification methodology for the risk of infestation in agricultural zones using fuzzy logic is proposed. The inputs for the classification are attributes extracted from estimated maps for weed seed production and weed coverage using kriging and map analysis and from the percentage of surface infested by grass weeds, in order to account for the presence of weed species with a high rate of development and proliferation. The output for the classification predicts the risk of infestation of regions of the field for the next crop. The risk classification methodology described in this paper integrates analysis techniques which may help to reduce costs and improve weed control practices. Results for the risk classification of the infestation in a maize crop field are presented. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, the risk of infestation over the entire field is checked against the yield loss map estimated by kriging and also with the average yield loss estimated from a hyperbolic model.

Decision making in fuzzy environment and multicriteria power engineering problems

This paper presents results of research into the use of the Bellman-Zadeh approach to decision making in a fuzzy environment for solving multicriteria power engineering problems. The application of the approach conforms to the principle of guaranteed result and provides constructive lines in computationally effective obtaining harmonious solutions on the basis of solving associated maxmin problems. The presented results are universally applicable and are already being used to solve diverse classes of power engineering problems. It is illustrated by considering problems of power and energy shortage allocation, power system operation, optimization of network configuration in distribution systems, and energetically effective voltage control in distribution systems. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy computational control for real Chua circuit

We preserit a computational procedure to control art experimental chaotic system by applying the occasional proportional feedback (OPF) method. The method implementation uses the fuzzy theory to relate the variable correction to the necessary adjustment in the control parameter. As an application We control the chaotic attractors of the Chua circuit. We present file developed circuits and algorithms to implement this control in real time. To simplify the used procedure, we use it low resolution analog to digital converter compensated for a lowpass filter that facilitates similar applications to control other systems. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hardware/firmware implementation of a soft sensor using an improved version of a fuzzy identification algorithm

This paper presents the design and implementation of an embedded soft sensor, i. e., a generic and autonomous hardware module, which can be applied to many complex plants, wherein a certain variable cannot be directly measured. It is implemented based on a fuzzy identification algorithm called ""Limited Rules"", employed to model continuous nonlinear processes. The fuzzy model has a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang structure and the premise parameters are defined based on the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm. The firmware contains the soft sensor and it runs online, estimating the target variable from other available variables. Tests have been performed using a simulated pH neutralization plant. The results of the embedded soft sensor have been considered satisfactory. A complete embedded inferential control system is also presented, including a soft sensor and a PID controller. (c) 2007, ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model for Differential Nursing Diagnosis of Alterations in Urinary Elimination Based on Fuzzy Logic

Nursing diagnoses associated with alterations of urinary elimination require different interventions, Nurses, who are not specialists, require support to diagnose and manage patients with disturbances of urine elimination. The aim of this study was to present a model based on fuzzy logic for differential diagnosis of alterations in urinary elimination, considering nursing diagnosis approved by the North American Nursing Diagnosis Association, 2001-2002. Fuzzy relations and the maximum-minimum composition approach were used to develop the system. The model performance was evaluated with 195 cases from the database of a previous study, resulting in 79.0% of total concordance and 19.5% of partial concordance, when compared with the panel of experts. Total discordance was observed in only three cases (1.5%). The agreement between model and experts was excellent (kappa = 0.98, P < .0001) or substantial (kappa = 0.69, P < .0001) when considering the overestimative accordance (accordance was considered when at least one diagnosis was equal) and the underestimative discordance (discordance was considered when at least one diagnosis was different), respectively. The model herein presented showed good performance and a simple theoretical structure, therefore demanding few computational resources.

A fuzzy Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

Brief note on the variation of constants formula for fuzzy differential equations

This note gives a theory of state transition matrices for linear systems of fuzzy differential equations. This is used to give a fuzzy version of the classical variation of constants formula. A simple example of a time-independent control system is used to illustrate the methods. While similar problems to the crisp case arise for time-dependent systems, in time-independent cases the calculations are elementary solutions of eigenvalue-eigenvector problems. In particular, for nonnegative or nonpositive matrices, the problems at each level set, can easily be solved in MATLAB to give the level sets of the fuzzy solution. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.