增温对川西亚高山针叶林不同光环境下几种幼苗生长的影响

由于人类活动所引起的地球大气层中温室气体的富集已导致全球地表平均温度在20 世纪升高了0.6 ¡æ，并预测在本世纪将上升1.4-5.8 ¡æ。气候变暖对陆地植物和生态系统产生深远影响，并已成为全球变化研究的重要议题。位于青藏高原东部的川西亚高山针叶林是研究气候变暖对陆地生态系统影响的重要森林类型。森林采伐迹地和人工云杉林下作为目前该区人工造林和森林更新的两种重要生境，二者截然不同的光环境对亚高山针叶林不同物种更新及森林动态有非常重要的影响。 本文以青藏高原东部亚高山针叶林几种主要森林树种为研究对象，采用开顶式增温法（OTCs）模拟气候变暖来研究增温对生长在两种不同光环境下（全光条件和林下低光环境）的几种幼苗早期生长和生理的影响，旨在从更新角度探讨亚高山针叶林生态系统不同树种对气候变暖在形态或生理上的响应差异，其研究结果可在一定程度上为预测气候变暖对亚高山针叶林物种组成和演替动态提供科学依据，同时也可为未来林业生产管理者提供科学指导。 1、与框外对照相比，OTCs 框内微环境发生了一些变化。OTCs 框内与框外对照气温年平均值分别为5.72 ¡æ和5.21 ¡æ，而地表温度年平均值分别为5.34 ¡æ和5.04 ¡æ，OTCs 使气温和地表年平均温度分别提高了0.51 ¡æ和0.34 ¡æ；OTCs框内空气湿度年平均值约高于框外对照，二者分别为90.4 %和85.3 %。 2、增温促进了三种幼苗生长和生物量的积累，但增温效果与幼苗种类及所处的光环境有关。无论在全光或林下低光条件下，增温条件下云杉幼苗株高、地径、分支数、总生物量及组分生物量（根、茎、叶重）都显著地增加；增温仅在全光条件下使红桦幼苗株高、地径、总生物量及组分生物量（根、茎、叶重）等参数显著地增加，而在林下低光条件下增温对幼苗生长和生物量积累的影响效果不明显；冷杉幼苗生长对增温的响应则与红桦幼苗相反，增温仅在林下低光条件下对冷杉幼苗生长和形态的影响才有明显的促进作用。 增温对三种幼苗的生物量分配模式产生了不同的影响，并且这种影响也与幼苗所处的光环境有关。无论在全光或林下低光环境下，增温都促使云杉幼苗将更多的生物量分配到植物地下部分，从而导致幼苗在增温条件下有更高的R/S 比；增温仅在林下低光条件下促使冷杉幼苗将更多的生物量投入到植物叶部，从而使幼苗R/S 比显著地降低；增温在全光条件下对红桦幼苗生物量分配的影响趋势与冷杉幼苗在低光条件下相似，即增温在全光条件下促使红桦幼苗分配更多的生物量到植物同化部分—叶部。 3、增温对亚高山针叶林生态系统中三种幼苗气体交换和生理表现的影响总体表现为正效应（Positive），即增温促进了几种幼苗的生理活动及其表现：（i）无论在全光或林下低光环境下，增温使三种幼苗的光合色素含量都有所增加；（ii）增温在一定程度上提高了三种使幼苗的PSII 光系统效率（Fv/Fm），从而使幼苗具有更强的光合电子传递活性；增温在一定程度使三种幼苗潜在的热耗散能力（NPQ）都有所增强，从而提高幼苗防御光氧化的能力；（iii）从研究结果来看，增温通过增加光合色素含量和表观量子效率等参数而促进幼苗的光合作用过程。总体来说增温对幼苗生理过程的影响效果与幼苗种类及所处的光环境有关，增温仅在全光条件下对红桦幼苗光合过程的影响才有明显的效果，而冷杉幼苗则相反，增温仅在低光条件下才对幼苗的生理过程有显著的影响。 4、增温对三种幼苗的抗氧化酶系统产生了一定的影响。从总体来说，增温使几种幼苗活性氧含量及膜脂过氧化作用降低，从而在一定程度上减轻了该区低温对植物生长的消极影响；增温倾向表明使三种幼苗体内抗氧化酶活性和非酶促作用有所提高，从而有利于维持活性氧代谢平衡。但增温影响效果与幼苗种类所处的光环境及抗氧化酶种类有关，增温对冷杉幼苗抗氧化酶活性的影响仅在林下低光环境下效果明显，而对红桦幼苗抗氧化酶活性的影响仅在全光条件下才有明显的效果。 总之，增温促进了亚高山针叶林生态系统中三种幼苗的生长和生理表现，但幼苗生长和生理对增温的响应随植物种类及所处的光环境不同而变化，这种响应差可能异赋予了不同植物种类在未来气候变暖背景下面对不同环境条件时具有不同的适应力和竞争优势，从而对亚高山针叶林生态系统物种组成和森林动态产生潜在的影响。 Enrichment of atmospheric greenhouse gases resulted from human activities suchas fossil fuel burning and deforestation has increased global mean temperature by 0.6¡æ in the 20th century and is predicted to increase it by 1.4-5.8 ¡æ. The globalwarming will have profound, long-term impacts on terrestrial plants and ecosystems.The ecoologcial consequences arising from global warming have also become thevery important issuses of global change research. The subalpine coniferous forests inthe eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau provide a natural laboratory for the studying theeffects of climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems. The light environment differssignificantly between clear-outs and spruce plantations, which is particularlyimportant for plant regeneration and forest dynamics in the subalpine coniferous forests. In this paper, the short-term effects of two levels of air temperature (ambient andwarmed) and light (full light and ca. 10% of full light regimes) on the early growthand physiology of Picea asperata, Abies faxoniana and Betula albo-sinensis seedlingswas determined using open-top chambers (OTCs). The aim of the present study wasto understand the differences between tree species in their responses to experimentalwarming from the perspective of regeneration. Our results could provide insights intothe effects of climate warming on community composition and regeneration behavior for the subalpine coniferous forest ecosystem processes, and provide scientificdirection for the production and management under future climate change. 1. The OTCs manipulation slightly altered thermal conditions during the growingseason compared with the outside chambers. The annual mean air temperature andsoil surface temperature was 5.72 and 5.34 ¡æ (within the chambers), and 5.21 and5.04 ¡æ (outside the chambers), respectively. The OTCs manipulation increased airtemperature and soil surface temperature by 0.51 and 0.34 ¡æ on average, respectively.Air relative humidity was slightly higher inside the OTCs compared with the controlplots, with 90.4 and 85.3 %, respectively. 2. Warming generally stimulated the growth and biomass accumulation of thethree tree species, but the effects of warming on growth and development variedbetween light conditions and species. Irrespective of light regimes, warmingsignificantly increased plant height, root collar diameter, total biomass, componentbiomass (stem, foliar and root biomass) and the number of branches in P. asperataseedlings; For A. faxoniana seedlings, significant effects of warming on all the tested parameters (plant height, root collar diameter, total biomass, and component biomass) were found only under low light conditions; In contrast, the growth responses of B.albo-sinensis seedlings to warming were found only under full light conditions. Warming had pronounced effects on the pattern of carbon allocation. Irrespectiveof light regimes, the P. asperata seedlings allocated relatively more biomass to rootsin responses to warming, which led to a higher R/S. Significant effects of warming onbiomass allocation were only found for the A. faxoniana seedlings grown under lowlight conditions, with significantly increased in leaf mass ratio (LMR) and decreasedin R/S in responses to warming manipulation. The carbon allocation responses of B.albo-sinensis seedling to warming under full light conditions were similar with theresponse of A. faxoniana seedlings grown under low light conditions. Warmingsignificantly decreased root mass ratio (RMR), and increased leaf mass ratio (LMR)and shoot/root biomass ratio (S/R) for the B. albo-sinensis seedlings grown under full light conditions. 3. Warming generally had a beneficial effect on physiological processes of dominant tree species in subalpine coniferous forest ecosystems: (i) Warming markedincreased the concentrations of photosynthetic pigments in both tree species, but theeffects of warming on photosynthetic pigments were greater under low lightconditions than under full light conditions for the two conifers; (ii) Warming tended toenhance the efficiency of PSII in terms of increase in Fv/Fm, which was related tohigher chloroplast electron transport activity; and enhance non-radiative energydissipation in terms of in increase in NPQ, which may reflect an increased capacity inpreventing photooxidation; (iii) Warming may enhance photosynthesis and advancephysiological activity in plants by increasing photosynthetic pigment concentration,the efficiency of PSII and apparent quantum yield (Φ) etc. From the results, theeffects of warming on seedlings’ physiological performance varied between lightenvironment and species. The effects of warming on photosynthesis performance of B.albo-sinesis seedlings were pronounced only under full light conditions, while thephysiological responses of A. faxoniana seedlings to warming were found only underthe 60-year plantation. These results provided further support for the observationsabove on growth responses of seedlings to warming. 4. Warming had marked effects on antioxidative systems of the three seedlings.Warming generally decreased H2O2 accumulation and the rate of O2- production, andalleviated degree of lipid peroxidation in terms of decreased MDA content, whichalleviated to some extent the negative effects of low temperature on the plant growthand development in this region; Warming tended to increase the activities ofantioxidative enzymes and stimulate the role of non-enzymatic AOS scavenging,which helped to create an balance in maintaining AOS metabolites for the threeseedlings. Nevertheless, the effects of warming on antioxidative defense systems werepronounced only under the 60-year plantation for the A. faxoniana seedlings. Incontrast, the marked effects of warming on antioxidative defense systems for the B.albo-sinesis seedlings were found only under the full light conditions. In sum, warming is considered to be generally positive in terms of growth andphysiological process. However, the responses of growth and physiology performanceto warming manipulation varied between species and light regimes. Competitive and adaptive relationships between tree species may be altered as a result of responsedifferences to warming manipulation, which is one mechanism by which globalwarming will alter species composition and forest dynamics of subalpine coniferousforest ecosystems under future climate change.

Preservation of black carbon in the shelf sediments of the East China Sea

Concentrations and carbon isotopic (C-14, C-13) compositions of black carbon (BC) were measured for three sediment cores collected from the Changjiang River estuary and the shelf of the East China Sea. BC concentrations ranged from 0.02 to 0.14 mg/g (dry weight), and accounted for 5% to 26% of the sedimentary total organic carbon (TOC) pool. Among the three sediment cores collected at each site, sediment from the Changjiang River estuary had relatively high BC contents compared with the sediments from the East China Sea shelf, suggesting that the Changjiang River discharge played an important role in the delivery of BC to the coastal region. Radiocarbon measurements indicate that the ages of BC are in the range of 6910 to 12250 years old B. P. (before present), that is in general, 3700 to 9000 years older than the C-14 ages of TOC in the sediments. These variable radiocarbon ages suggest that the BC preserved in the sediments was derived from the products of both biomass fire and fossil fuel combustion, as well as from ancient rock weathering. Based on an isotopic mass balance model, we calculated that fossil fuel combustion contributed most (60%. 80%) of the BC preserved in these sediments and varied with depth and locations. The deposition and burial of this "slow-cycling" BC in the sediments of the East China Sea shelf represent a significant pool of carbon sink and could greatly influence carbon cycling in the region.

Ocean urea fertilization for carbon credits poses high ecological risks

The proposed plan for enrichment of the Sulu Sea, Philippines, a region of rich marine biodiversity, with thousands of tonnes of urea in order to stimulate algal blooms and sequester carbon is flawed for multiple reasons. Urea is preferentially used as a nitrogen source by some cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates, many of which are neutrally or positively buoyant. Biological pumps to the deep sea are classically leaky, and the inefficient burial of new biomass makes the estimation of a net loss of carbon from the atmosphere questionable at best. The potential for growth of toxic dinoflagellates is also high, as many grow well on urea and some even increase their toxicity when grown on urea. Many toxic dinoflagellates form cysts which can settle to the sediment and germinate in subsequent years, forming new blooms even without further fertilization. If large-scale blooms do occur, it is likely that they will contribute to hypoxia in the bottom waters upon decomposition. Lastly, urea production requires fossil fuel usage, further limiting the potential for net carbon sequestration. The environmental and economic impacts are potentially great and need to be rigorously assessed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A stable carbon isotopic approach for understanding the CO2 flux at the Haibei Alpine Meadow Ecosystem - A simple model

Although respiration of organisms and biomass as well as fossil fuel burning industrial production are identified as the major sources, the CO2 flux is still unclear due to the lack of proper measurements. A mass-balance approach that exploits differences in the carbon isotopic signature (delta(13)C) of CO2 Sources and sinks was introduced and may provide a means of reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric budget. delta(13)C measurements of atmospheric CO2 yielded an average of - 10.3 parts per thousand relative to the Peedee Belemnite standard; soil and plants had a narrow range from -25.09 parts per thousand to -26.51 parts per thousand and averaged at -25.80 parts per thousand. Based on the fact of steady fractionation and enrichment during respiration of mitochondria, we obtained the emission Of CO2 of 35.451 mol m(-2) a(-1) and CO2 flux of 0.2149 mu mol m(-2) s(-)1. The positive CO2 flux indicated the Haibei Alpine Meadow Ecosystem a source rather than a sink. The mass-balance model can be applied for other ecosystem even global carbon cycles because it neglects the complicated process of carbon metabolism, however just focuses on stable carbon isotopic compositions in any of compartments of carbon sources and sinks. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

中国西部大气和雪冰黑碳及其传输过程研究

Glaciers in west China are the sources of the major great rivers in Asia, and the solid water resources are crucial to China and South Asia. Black carbon (BC) results in very complex climate effects not only in the atmosphere, but accelerates the melting after its deposit on the surface of snow/ice. As the main distributed area of glaciers in China, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Xinjiang region are abutted by South Asia, Central Asia, and Russia, and east China, and the atmospheric environment would be influenced by the BC emitted from these regions. Whereas, the BC’s temporal and spatial distributions for concentration in the mid and top troposphere in west China, its transport, and its radiative forcing after deposited on the snow/ice surface are not well understood at the present. In the field, we collected samples from surface snow, snow pits, ice core, and aerosol in the glaciers, analyzed BC content mainly by the thermo-oxidized method in the laboratory, and discussed temporal and spatial distributions for BC concentrations in glaciers, the transport, and its impacts on the environment. Several conclusions were derived as follows: 1_Spatial distribution and the impact on albedos for BC concentrations in snow/ice: the BC concentrations in the surface snow for the investigated glaciers could be placed in areas, the Tianshan Mountains ＞ the central TP ＞ the Pamirs ＞ the Qilian Mountians ＞ the Himalayas. This distribution could be attributed to the elevation of the glaciers, the topography of the TP, and more regional emissions. Probably significant impacts on the albedos of the glacier surface could be caused by BC deposits, and the estimated reduced albedos on the glaciers are 9.8% (the Zhadang glacier), 8.7% (the Miao’ergou Riverhead No.3 glacier), and 6.8% (the Kuitun River Haxilegen No.48 glacier), and 6.2% (the Dongkemadi glacier), and 5.3% (the La’nong glacier), and 4.2% (the Muztagata glacier), etc. 2_The temporal variance of BC concentrations in ice of the East Rongbuk Glacier (ERG) and its climatic implications: major cations and anions (e.g., SO42- and Ca2+) concentrations in aerosols during summer monsoon seasons showed their close relationships with the sources of air masses, in which the variance of SO42- concentrations suggested the atmospheric environment over the ERG was significantly influenced by the aerosols from South Asia. BC record based on an ice core suggested its deposit was dominantly transported by monsoons in summers and by westerlies in other seasons, and the BC from South Asia in summers dominated the varying trend of its concentrations in the ice core and caused higher concentrations in summers than those in other seasons. In the past 50 yrs, BC concentrations showed fluctuations, whereas showed an increasing tread in the most recent decade, and exceeded 50 μg kg-1 in the summer of 2001; correspondingly, the radiative forcing caused by BC showed an increasing trend since 1990s, and exceeded 4.5 W m-2 in the summer of 2001. 3_Cabonaceous aerosols in the Nam Co region: organic carbon (OC) concentration accounted for ～95% and BC for ～5% in the total carbonaceous aerosol concentration, which was significantly influenced by summer precipitations. OC was dominantly derived from fossil fuel burning and BC from both fossil fuel and biomass burning. Trajectory analysis and aerosol optical depth suggested the atmospheric environment in the Nam Co region was most probably influenced by the emissions from South Asia. The potential source regions of air pollutants in the Nam Co regions in summers might be Bangladesh and east India, and in winters might be the Indo-gangetic basin. The scavenging ratio of atmospheric BC by rainfalls was less than those at other sites. West China is a less-developed region for industry, where BC concentrations in the atmosphere and snow/ice could be significantly influenced by the emissions from the abutted regions with rising industries (South Asia, Central Asia, and Russia). For example, snow/ice BC concentrations in the glaciers of the Parmirs, the Tianshan Mountains, and the Qilian Mountains in the northeast margin of the TP might be more influenced by the emissions from Centrial Asia (transported by the westerlies), those in the glaciers of the Himalayas might be more influenced by the emissions from South Asia (transported by the monsoons and the westerlies), and atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols might also be more influenced by the emissions from South Asia (transported by the monsoons and the westerlies). The BC concentrations in some glaciers might cause significant impacts on the albedos for the glaciers, and therefore enhanced the radiative forcings, for example, the ERG. The research on the relationships among atmospheric and snow/ice BC and its radiative forcing, variance of snow cover, mass balance of glaciers, and climate forcing would be needed in future.

Co-incineração em fornos de cimenteiras

Com o objectivo de conhecer o processo da co-incineração, foram realizadas visitas ao sistema integrado de tratamento e eliminação de resíduos, sA (sisAV), na chamusca, e à cimpor, em souselas. pode concluir-se que o tratamento das emissões gasosas, principal questão conflituosa associada à co-incineração, não difere substancialmente daquele realizado nas instalações onde se procede à queima de combustíveis fósseis, excepto no tocante à instalação de algum equipamento adicional. Não podendo afirmar-se que se trate da solução ideal para a eliminação dos resíduos perigosos, apresenta vantagens como seja o aproveitamento de instalações pré-existentes, ao mesmo tempo que se minimiza a utilização de energia não renovável. Aiming to understand the co-incineration process, the sistema integrado de tratamento e eliminação de resíduos, sA (sisAV), in chamusca, and the cimpor, in souselas, both in portugal, were the two facilities visited to that purpose. It is possible to conclude that the treatment of atmospheric emissions, the main concern associated to conflicts in co-incineration, does not substantially differ from the one used in facilities where fossil fuel is burnt,except in what concerns to some additional equipment that must be installed. though it is not possible to state that this is the ideal solution to solve the hazard waste problem, it has advantages such as the use of pre-existing facilities and, at the same time, the use of nonrenewable energy sources is minimized.

Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Real time analysis of atmospheric single particles in urban environments using aerosol time of flight mass spectrometry

In order to determine the size-resolved chemical composition of single particles in real-time an ATOFMS was deployed at urban background sites in Paris and Barcelona during the MEGAPOLI and SAPUSS monitoring campaigns respectively. The particle types detected during MEGAPOLI included several carbonaceous species, metal-containing types and sea-salt. Elemental carbon particle types were highly abundant, with 86% due to fossil fuel combustion and 14% attributed to biomass burning. Furthermore, 79% of the EC was apportioned to local emissions and 21% to continental transport. The carbonaceous particle types were compared with quantitative measurements from other instruments, and while direct correlations using particle counts were poor, scaling of the ATOFMS counts greatly improved the relationship. During SAPUSS carbonaceous species, sea-salt, dust, vegetative debris and various metal-containing particle types were identified. Throughout the campaign the site was influenced by air masses altering the composition of particles detected. During North African air masses the city was heavily influenced by Saharan dust. A regional stagnation was also observed leading to a large increase in carbonaceous particle counts. While the ATOFMS provides a list of particle types present during the measurement campaigns, the data presented is not directly quantitative. The quantitative response of the ATOFMS to metals was examined by comparing the ion signals within particle mass spectra and to hourly mass concentrations of; Na, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Zn and Pb. The ATOFMS was found to have varying correlations with these metals depending on sampling issues such as matrix effects. The strongest correlations were observed for Al, Fe, Zn, Mn and Pb. Overall the results of this work highlight the excellent ability of the ATOFMS in providing composition and mixing state information on atmospheric particles at high time resolution. However they also show its limitations in delivering quantitative information directly.

Assessing the environmental consequences of CO2 leakage from geological CCS: Generating evidence to support environmental risk assessment

At the start of the industrial revolution (circa 1750) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) was around 280 ppm. Since that time the burning of fossil fuel, together with other industrial processes such as cement manufacture and changing land use, has increased this value to 400 ppm, for the first time in over 3 million years. With CO2 being a potent greenhouse gas, the consequence of this rise for global temperatures has been dramatic, and not only for air temperatures. Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has warmed by 0.4–0.8 °C during the last century, although regional differences are evident (IPCC, 2007). This rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and the resulting global warming to some extent has been ameliorated by the oceanic uptake of around one quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Sabine et al., 2004). Initially this was thought to be having little or no impact on ocean chemistry due to the capacity of the ocean’s carbonate buffering system to neutralise the acidity caused when CO2 dissolves in seawater. However, this assumption was challenged by Caldeira and Wickett (2005) who used model predictions to show that the rate at which carbonate buffering can act was far too slow to moderate significant changes to oceanic chemistry over the next few centuries. Their model predicted that since pre-industrial times, ocean surface water pH had fallen by 0.1 pH unit, indicating a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ ions. Their model also showed that the pH of surface waters could fall by up to 0.4 units before 2100, driven by continued and unabated utilisation of fossil fuels. Alongside increasing levels of dissolved CO2 and H+ (reduced pH) an increase in bicarbonate ions together with a decrease in carbonate ions occurs. These chemical changes are now collectively recognised as “ocean acidification”. Concern now stems from the knowledge that concentrations of H+, CO2, bicarbonate and carbonate ions impact upon many important physiological processes vital to maintaining health and function in marine organisms. Additionally, species have evolved under conditions where the carbonate system has remained relatively stable for millions of years, rendering them with potentially reduced capacity to adapt to this rapid change. Evidence suggests that, whilst the impact of ocean acidification is complex, when considered alongside ocean warming the net effect on the health and productivity of the oceans will be detrimental.

Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea‐level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up ∼40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean ‘carbon pumps’ (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice–ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Detection and impacts of leakage from sub-seafloor deep geological carbon dioxide storage

Fossil fuel power generation and other industrial emissions of carbon dioxide are a threat to global climate1, yet many economies will remain reliant on these technologies for several decades2. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations provides an effective option to remove these emissions from the climate system3. In many regions storage reservoirs are located offshore4, 5, over a kilometre or more below societally important shelf seas6. Therefore, concerns about the possibility of leakage7, 8 and potential environmental impacts, along with economics, have contributed to delaying development of operational CCS. Here we investigate the detectability and environmental impact of leakage from a controlled sub-seabed release of CO2. We show that the biological impact and footprint of this small leak analogue (<1 tonne CO2 d−1) is confined to a few tens of metres. Migration of CO2 through the shallow seabed is influenced by near-surface sediment structure, and by dissolution and re-precipitation of calcium carbonate naturally present in sediments. Results reported here advance the understanding of environmental sensitivity to leakage and identify appropriate monitoring strategies for full-scale carbon storage operations.

Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Detection and impacts of leakage from sub-seafloor deep geological carbon dioxide storage

Fossil fuel power generation and other industrial emissions of carbon dioxide are a threat to global climate1, yet many economies will remain reliant on these technologies for several decades2. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations provides an effective option to remove these emissions from the climate system3. In many regions storage reservoirs are located offshore4, 5, over a kilometre or more below societally important shelf seas6. Therefore, concerns about the possibility of leakage7, 8 and potential environmental impacts, along with economics, have contributed to delaying development of operational CCS. Here we investigate the detectability and environmental impact of leakage from a controlled sub-seabed release of CO2. We show that the biological impact and footprint of this small leak analogue (<1 tonne CO2 d−1) is confined to a few tens of metres. Migration of CO2 through the shallow seabed is influenced by near-surface sediment structure, and by dissolution and re-precipitation of calcium carbonate naturally present in sediments. Results reported here advance the understanding of environmental sensitivity to leakage and identify appropriate monitoring strategies for full-scale carbon storage operations.

Electrical energy storage and Smart Grid technologies to integrate the next generation of Renewable Power Systems

The growth of renewable power sources, distributed generation and the potential for alternative fuelled modes of transport such as electric vehicles has led to concerns over the ability of existing grid systems to facilitate such diverse portfolio mixes in already congested power systems. Internationally the growth in renewable energy sources is driven by government policy targets associated with the uncertainties of fossil fuel supplies, environmental issues and a move towards energy independence. Power grids were traditionally designed as vertically integrated centrally managed entities with fully dispatchable generating plant. Renewable power sources, distributed generation and alternative fuelled vehicles will place these power systems under additional stresses and strains due to their different operational characteristics. Energy storage and smart grid technologies are widely proposed as the tools to integrate these future diverse portfolio mixes within the more conventional power systems. The choice in these technologies is determined not only by their location on the grid system, but by the diversification in the power portfolio mix, the electricity market and the operational demands. This paper presents a high level technical and economic overview of the role and relevance of electrical energy storage and smart grid technologies in the next generation of renewable power systems.

Electric Vehicles - a well to wheel analysis

The European Union has set a target for 10% renewable energy in transport by 2020, which will be met using both biofuels and electric vehicles. In the case of biofuels, for the purposes of meeting the target, the biofuel must achieve greenhouse gas savings of 35% relative to the fossil fuel replaced. For biofuels, greenhouse gas savings can be calculated using life cycle analysis, or the European Union default values. In contrast, all electricity used in transport is considered to be the same, regardless of the source or the type of electric vehicle. However, the choice of the electric vehicle and electricity source will have a major impact on the greenhouse gas savings. This paper examines different electric-vehicle scenarios in terms of greenhouse gas savings, using a well-to-wheel life cycle analysis.