An infinite-horizon robust filter for uncertain hidden Markov Models with conditional relative entropy constraints

We consider a robust filtering problem for uncertain discrete-time, homogeneous, first-order, finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). The class of uncertain HMMs considered is described by a conditional relative entropy constraint on measures perturbed from a nominal regular conditional probability distribution given the previous posterior state distribution and the latest measurement. Under this class of perturbations, a robust infinite horizon filtering problem is first formulated as a constrained optimization problem before being transformed via variational results into an unconstrained optimization problem; the latter can be elegantly solved using a risk-sensitive information-state based filtering.

A methodology to assess the competitiveness of real estate developers in China

Real estate, or property development, is considered one of the pillar industries of the Chinese economy. As a result of the opening up of the economy as well as the "macro-control" policy of the Central Chinese Government to moderate the frenetic pace of growth of the economy, the real estate industry has faced fierce competition and ongoing change. Real estate firms in China must improve their competitiveness in order to maintain market share or even survive in this brutally competitive environment. This study developed a methodology to evaluate the competitiveness of real estate developers in the China and then used a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the evaluation method. Four steps were taken to achieve this. The first step was to conduct a thorough literature review which included a review of the characteristics of real estate industry, theories about competitiveness and the competitive characteristics of real estate developers. Following this literature review, the competitive model was developed based on seven key competitive factors (the 'level 1') identified in the literature. They include: (1) financial competency; (2) market share; (3) management competency; (4) social responsibility; (5) organisational competency; (6) technological capabilities; and, (7) regional competitiveness. In the next step of research, the competitive evaluation criteria (the 'level 2') under each of competitive factors (the 'level 1') were evaluated. Additionally, there were identified a set of competitive attributes (the 'level 3') under each competitive criteria (the 'level 2'). These attributes were initially recognised during the literature review and then expanded upon through interviews with multidisciplinary experts and practitioners in various real estate-related industries. The final step in this research was to undertake a case study using the proposed evaluation method and attributes. Through the study of an actual real estate development company, the procedures and effectiveness of the evaluation method were illustrated and validated. Through the above steps, this research investigates and develops an analytical system for determining the corporate competitiveness of real estate developers in China. The analytical system is formulated to evaluate the "state of health" of the business from different competitive perspectives. The result of empirical study illustrates that a systematic and structured evaluation can effectively assist developers in identifying their strengths and highlighting potential problems. This is very important for the development of an overall corporate strategy and supporting key strategic decisions. This study also provides some insights, analysis and suggestions for improving the competitiveness of real estate developers in China from different perspectives, including: management competency, organisational competency, technological capabilities, financial competency, market share, social responsibility and regional competitiveness. In the case study, problems were found in each of these areas, and they appear to be common in the industry. To address these problems and improve the competitiveness and effectiveness of Chinese real estate developers, a variety of suggestions are proposed. The findings of this research provide an insight into the factors that influence competitiveness in the Chinese real estate industry while also assisting practitioners to formulate strategies to improve their competitiveness. References for studying the competitiveness of real estate developers in other countries are also provided.

A longitudinal study of corporate earnings guidance in Australia’s continuous disclosure environment

Since the introduction of a statutory‐backed continuous disclosure regime (CDR) in 1994, regulatory reforms have significantly increased litigation risk in Australia for failure to disclose material information or for false and misleading disclosure. However, there is almost no empirical research on the impact of the reforms on corporate disclosure behaviour. Motivated by the absence of research and using management earnings forecasts (MEFs) as a disclosure proxy, this study examines (1) why managers issue earnings forecasts, (2) what firm‐specific factors influence MEF characteristics, and (3) how MEF behaviour changes as litigation risk increases. Based on theories in information economics, a theoretical framework for MEF behaviour is formulated which includes antecedent influencing factors related to firms‟ internal and external environments. Applying this framework, hypotheses are developed and tested using multivariate models and a large sample of hand-collected MEFs (7,213) issued by top 500 ASX-listed companies over the 1994 to 2008 period. The results reveal strong support for the hypotheses. First, MEFs are issued to reduce information asymmetry, litigation risk and signal superior performance. Second, firms with better financial performance, smaller earnings changes, and lower operating uncertainty provide better quality MEFs. Third, forecast frequency and quality (accuracy, timeliness and precision) noticeably improve as litigation risk increases. However, managers appear to be still reluctant to disclose earnings forecasts when there are large earnings changes, and an asymmetric treatment of news type continues to prevail (a good news bias). Thus, the findings generally provide support for the effectiveness of the CDR regulatory reforms in improving disclosure behaviour and will be valuable to market participants and corporate regulators in understanding the implications of management forecasting decisions and areas for further improvement.

The development and evaluation of a culturally affirmative counselling model for deaf clients in Australia

In Australia, there is only one, newly established, dedicated mental health service catering specifically for the signing *Deaf community. It is staffed by four part-time hearing professionals and based in Brisbane. There are currently no Deaf psychologists or psychiatrists and there is no valid or reliable empirical evidence on outcomes for Deaf people accessing specialised or mainstream mental health services. Further compounding these issues, is the fact that there are no sign language versions of the most common standardised mental health or psychological instruments available to clinicians in Australia. Contemporary counselling literature is acknowledging the role of the therapeutic alliance and the impact of 'common factors' on therapeutic outcomes. However, these issues are complicated by the relationship between the Deaf client and the hearing therapist being a cross-cultural exchange. The disability model of deafness is contentious and few professionals in Australia have the requisite knowledge and understanding of deafness from a cultural perspective to attend to the therapeutic relationship with this in mind. Consequently, Deaf people are severely disadvantaged by the current lack of services, resources and skilled professionals in the field of deafness and psychology in this country. The primary aim of the following program of research has been to propose a model for culturally affirmative service delivery and to provide clinicians with tools to evaluate the effect of their therapeutic work with Deaf people seeking mental health treatment. The research document is presented as a thesis by publication and comprises four specific objectives formulated in response to the lack of existing services and resources. The first objective was to explore the use of social constructionist counselling techniques and a reflecting team with Deaf clients, hearing therapists and an interpreter. Following the establishment of a pilot counselling clinic, indepth semi-structured interviews were conducted with two long-term clients following the one year pilot of this service. These interviews generated recommendations for the development of a new 'enriched' model of counselling to be implemented and evaluated in later stages of the research program. The second objective was to identify appropriate psychometric measures that could be translated into Australian Sign Language (Auslan) for research into efficacy, effectiveness and counselling outcomes. Two instruments were identified as potentially suitable; the Outcome Rating Scale (ORS), a measure of global functioning, and the Session Rating Scale (SRS), a measure of therapeutic alliance. A specialised team of bi-lingual and bi-cultural interpreters, native signers and the primary researcher for this thesis, produced the ORS-Auslan and the SRS-Auslan in DVD format, using the translation and back-translation process. The third objective was to establish the validity and reliability of these new Auslan measures based on normative data from the Deaf community. Data from the ORS-Auslan was collected from one clinical and one non-clinical sample of Deaf people. Statistical analyses revealed that the ORS-Auslan is reliable, valid and adequately distinguishes between clinical and non-clinical presentations. Furthermore, construct validity has been established using a yet to be validated sign language version of the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale-21 items (DASS-21), providing a platform for further research using the DASS-21 with Deaf people. The fourth objective was to evaluate counselling outcomes following the implementation of an enriched counselling service, based on the findings generated by the first objective, and using the newly translated Auslan measures. A second university counselling clinic was established and implemented over the course of one year. Practice-based evidence guided the research and the ORS-Auslan and the SRS-Auslan were administered at every session and provided outcome data on Deaf clients' global functioning. Data from six clients over the course of ten months indicated that this culturally affirmative model was an effective approach for these six clients. This is the first time that outcome data have been collected in Australia using valid and reliable Auslan measures to establish preliminary evidence for the effectiveness of any therapeutic intervention for clinical work with adult, signing Deaf clients. The research generated by this thesis contributes theoretical knowledge, professional development and practical resources that can be used by a variety of mental health clinicians in the context of mental health service delivery to Deaf clients in Australia.

Idyll number eleven

This is a short horror story formulated in the research process for the novel "That Blackfella Bloodsucka Dance!"

Domestic and international innovation partnerships : do they matter for innovation outcomes of South African firms?

This paper studies the impact of the diversity of domestic and international innovation partnerships on the innovation outcomes of South African firms. A number of competing hypotheses are formulated and tested empirically using a sample of South African firms in manufacturing and services by applying Ordinary Least Squares regression analyses. Results show that having an innovation partnership, particularly an international partnership, is beneficial to innovation outcomes. However, it also emerges that too diverse a set of international partnerships is detrimental to innovation outcomes. The paper concludes with a discussion and a number of proposals for future research.

Load modelling : induction motors

Modelling the power systems load is a challenge since the load level and composition varies with time. An accurate load model is important because there is a substantial component of load dynamics in the frequency range relevant to system stability. The composition of loads need to be charaterised because the time constants of composite loads affect the damping contributions of the loads to power system oscillations, and their effects vary with the time of the day, depending on the mix of motors loads. This chapter has two main objectives: 1) describe the load modelling in small signal using on-line measurements; and 2) present a new approach to develop models that reflect the load response to large disturbances. Small signal load characterisation based on on-line measurements allows predicting the composition of load with improved accuracy compared with post-mortem or classical load models. Rather than a generic dynamic model for small signal modelling of the load, an explicit induction motor is used so the performance for larger disturbances can be more reliably inferred. The relation between power and frequency/voltage can be explicitly formulated and the contribution of induction motors extracted. One of the main features of this work is the induction motor component can be associated to nominal powers or equivalent motors

Wound healing angiogenesis : the clinical implications of a simple mathematical model

Nonhealing wounds are a major burden for health care systems worldwide. In addition, a patient who suffers from this type of wound usually has a reduced quality of life. While the wound healing process is undoubtedly complex, in this paper we develop a deterministic mathematical model, formulated as a system of partial differential equations, that focusses on an important aspect of successful healing: oxygen supply to the wound bed by a combination of diffusion from the surrounding unwounded tissue and delivery from newly formed blood vessels. While the model equations can be solved numerically, the emphasis here is on the use of asymptotic methods to establish conditions under which new blood vessel growth can be initiated and wound-bed angiogenesis can progress. These conditions are given in terms of key model parameters including the rate of oxygen supply and its rate of consumption in the wound. We use our model to discuss the clinical use of treatments such as hyperbaric oxygen therapy, wound bed debridement, and revascularisation therapy that have the potential to initiate healing in chronic, stalled wounds.

Optimal coordination of overcurrent relays in distribution systems with distributed generators based on differential evolution algorithm

Distributed generators (DGs) are defined as generators that are connected to a distribution network. The direction of the power flow and short-circuit current in a network could be changed compared with one without DGs. The conventional protective relay scheme does not meet the requirement in this emerging situation. As the number and capacity of DGs in the distribution network increase, the problem of coordinating protective relays becomes more challenging. Given this background, the protective relay coordination problem in distribution systems is investigated, with directional overcurrent relays taken as an example, and formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem. A mathematical model describing this problem is first developed, and the well-developed differential evolution algorithm is then used to solve it. Finally, a sample system is used to demonstrate the feasiblity and efficiency of the developed method.

An empirical investigation of health information system failure in regional Sri Lanka

Public health decision making is critically dependant on accurate, timely and reliable information. There is a widespread belief that most of the national and sub-national health information systems fail in providing much needed information support for evidence based health planning and interventions. This situation is more acute in developing nations where resources are either stagnant or decreasing, coupled with the situations of demographic transition and double burden of diseases. Literature abounds with publications, which provide information on misguided health interventions in developing nations, leading to failure and waste of resources. Health information system failure is widely blamed for this situation. Nevertheless, there is a dearth of comprehensive evaluations of existing national or sub-national health information systems, especially in the region of South-East Asia. This study makes an attempt to bridge this knowledge gap by evaluating a regional health information system in Sri Lanka. It explores the strengths and weaknesses of the current health information system and related causative factors in a decentralised health system and then proposes strategic recommendations for reform measures. A mix methodological and phased approach was adopted to reach the objectives. An initial self administered questionnaire survey was conducted among health managers to study their perceptions in relation to the regional health information system and its management support. The survey findings were used to establish the presence of health information system failure in the region and also as a precursor to the more in-depth case study which was followed. The sources of data for the case study were literature review, document analysis and key stake holder interviews. Health information system resources, health indicators, data sources, data management, data quality, and information dissemination were the six major components investigated. The study findings reveal that accurate, timely and reliable health information is unavailable and therefore evidence based health planning is lacking in the studied health region. Strengths and weaknesses of the current health information system were identified and strategic recommendations were formulated accordingly. It is anticipated that this research will make a significant and multi-fold contribution for health information management in developing countries. First, it will attempt to bridge an existing knowledge gap by presenting the findings of a comprehensive case study to reveal the strengths and weaknesses of a decentralised health information system in a developing country. Second, it will enrich the literature by providing an assessment tool and a research method for the evaluation of regional health information systems. Third, it will make a rewarding practical contribution by presenting valuable guidelines for improving health information systems in regional Sri Lanka.

“A problem of versions” : laying down the law in the school playground

Purpose This chapter investigates an episode where a supervising teacher on playground duty asks two boys to each give an account of their actions over an incident that had just occurred on some climbing equipment in the playground. Methodology This paper employs an ethnomethodological approach using conversation analysis. The data are taken from a corpus of video recorded interactions of children, aged 7-9 years, and the teacher, in school playgrounds during the lunch recess. Findings The findings show the ways that children work up accounts of their playground practices when asked by the teacher. The teacher initially provided interactional space for each child to give their version of the events. Ultimately, the teacher’s version of how to act in the playground became the sanctioned one. The children and the teacher formulated particular social orders of behavior in the playground through multi-modal devices, direct reported speech and scripts. Such public displays of talk work as socialization practices that frame teacher-sanctioned morally appropriate actions in the playground. Value of paper This chapter shows the pervasiveness of the teacher’s social order, as she presented an institutional social order of how to interact in the playground, showing clearly the disjunction of adult-child orders between the teacher and children.

Gravy

To many aspiring writer/directors of feature film breaking into the industry may be perceived as an insurmountable obstacle. In contemplating my own attempt to venture into the world of feature filmmaking I have reasoned that a formulated strategy could be of benefit. As the film industry is largely concerned with economics I decided that writing a relatively low-cost feature film may improve my chances of being allowed directorship by a credible producer. As a result I have decided to write a modest feature film set in a single interior shooting location in an attempt to minimise production costs, therefore also attempting to reduce the perceived risk in hiring the writer as debut director. As a practice-led researcher, the primary focus of this research is to create a screenplay in response to my greater directorial aspirations and to explore the nature in which the said strategic decision to write a single-location film impacts on not only the craft of cinematic writing but also the creative process itself, as it pertains to the project at hand. The result is a comedy script titled Gravy, which is set in a single apartment and strives to maintain a fast comedic pace whilst employing a range of character and plot devices in conjunction with creative decisions that help to sustain cinematic interest within the confines of the apartment. In addition to the screenplay artifact, the exegesis also includes a section that reflects on the writing process in the form of personal accounts, decisions, problems and solutions as well as examination of other author’s works.

A new analytic approach for power system fault diagnosis employing the temporal information of alarm messages

Traditional analytic models for power system fault diagnosis are usually formulated as an unconstrained 0–1 integer programming problem. The key issue of the models is to seek the fault hypothesis that minimizes the discrepancy between the actual and the expected states of the concerned protective relays and circuit breakers. The temporal information of alarm messages has not been well utilized in these methods, and as a result, the diagnosis results may be not unique and hence indefinite, especially when complicated and multiple faults occur. In order to solve this problem, this paper presents a novel analytic model employing the temporal information of alarm messages along with the concept of related path. The temporal relationship among the actions of protective relays and circuit breakers, and the different protection configurations in a modern power system can be reasonably represented by the developed model, and therefore, the diagnosed results will be more definite under different circumstances of faults. Finally, an actual power system fault was served to verify the proposed method.

Scheduling techniques to optimise rail operations

In Australia, railway systems play a vital role in transporting the sugarcane crop from farms to mills. The sugarcane transport system is very complex and uses daily schedules, consisting of a set of locomotives runs, to satisfy the requirements of the mill and harvesters. The total cost of sugarcane transport operations is very high; over 35% of the total cost of sugarcane production in Australia is incurred in cane transport. Efficient schedules for sugarcane transport can reduce the cost and limit the negative effects that this system can have on the raw sugar production system. There are several benefits to formulating the train scheduling problem as a blocking parallel-machine job shop scheduling (BPMJSS) problem, namely to prevent two trains passing in one section at the same time; to keep the train activities (operations) in sequence during each run (trip) by applying precedence constraints; to pass the trains on one section in the correct order (priorities of passing trains) by applying disjunctive constraints; and, to ease passing trains by solving rail conflicts by applying blocking constraints and Parallel Machine Scheduling. Therefore, the sugarcane rail operations are formulated as BPMJSS problem. A mixed integer programming and constraint programming approaches are used to describe the BPMJSS problem. The model is solved by the integration of constraint programming, mixed integer programming and search techniques. The optimality performance is tested by Optimization Programming Language (OPL) and CPLEX software on small and large size instances based on specific criteria. A real life problem is used to verify and validate the approach. Constructive heuristics and new metaheuristics including simulated annealing and tabu search are proposed to solve this complex and NP-hard scheduling problem and produce a more efficient scheduling system. Innovative hybrid and hyper metaheuristic techniques are developed and coded using C# language to improve the solutions quality and CPU time. Hybrid techniques depend on integrating heuristic and metaheuristic techniques consecutively, while hyper techniques are the complete integration between different metaheuristic techniques, heuristic techniques, or both.

A human-simulated immune evolutionary computation approach

Premature convergence to local optimal solutions is one of the main difficulties when using evolutionary algorithms in real-world optimization problems. To prevent premature convergence and degeneration phenomenon, this paper proposes a new optimization computation approach, human-simulated immune evolutionary algorithm (HSIEA). Considering that the premature convergence problem is due to the lack of diversity in the population, the HSIEA employs the clonal selection principle of artificial immune system theory to preserve the diversity of solutions for the search process. Mathematical descriptions and procedures of the HSIEA are given, and four new evolutionary operators are formulated which are clone, variation, recombination, and selection. Two benchmark optimization functions are investigated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed HSIEA.