Central bank intervention and exchange rate behaviour : empirical evidence for India

This paper examines the causal relationship between central bank intervention and exchange returns in India. Using monthly data from December 1997 to December 2011, the empirical results derived from the CCF approach of Cheung and Ng (1996) suggest that there is causality-in-variance from exchange rate returns to central bank intervention, but not vice versa. These findings are robust in the sense that they hold in cases where the returns were measured from either the spot rate or the forward rate. Therefore, the results of this paper suggest that the Indian central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market to respond to exchange rate volatility, although the volatility has not been influenced by central bank intervention in the form of net purchases of foreign currency in the market.

Sources of fluctuations in parallel exchange rates and policy reform in Myanmar

Myanmar maintained a multiple exchange rate system, and the parallel market exchange rate was left untamed. In the last two decades, the Myanmar kyat exchange rate of the parallel market has exhibited the sharpest fluctuations among Southeast Asian currencies in real terms. Since the move to a managed float regime in April 2012, the question arises of whether exchange rate policies will be effective in stabilizing the real exchange rate. This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate using Blanchard and Quah’s (1989) structural vector autoregression model. As nominal shocks can be created by exchange rate policies, a persistent impact of a nominal shock implies more room for exchange rate policies. Decomposition of the fluctuations into nominal and real shocks indicates that the impact of nominal shocks is small and quickly diminishes, implying that complementary sterilization is necessary for effective foreign exchange market interventions.

Skilled emigration and exchange rate : theory and empirics

In this paper we build a theoretical model on the wage effect of skilled emigration to the fluctuations in real exchange rate through the relative prices of nontradables. Our theoretical model predicts that skilled emigration is associated with an increase in the prices of nontradable, which in turn appreciates the exchange rate. We provide robust empirical support to a higher skilled emigration associated with higher prices in nontradables and appreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Based on two samples of countries with 51 and 67 observations, in 1990 and 2000 respectively, we find robust empirical support to a higher skilled emigration associated with higher prices in nontradables and appreciation of the REER. In addition, the support for the remittance-channel of the Dutch disease is also significant; overall, our findings corroborate the remittance-based Dutch disease phenomenon by providing an additional channel through which the labor mobility across borders affects the real exchange rate volatility.

FTA in international finance : impacts of exchange rates on FTA utilization

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme in trading. Changes in exchange rates affect FTA utilization by two ways. The first way is by changing the excess profits gained by utilizing the FTA scheme, and the second way is by promoting the compliance of rules of origin. Our theoretical models predict that the depreciation of exporters' currency against that of importers enhances the likelihood of FTA utilization through those two channels. Furthermore, our empirical analysis, which is based on rich tariff-line-level data on the utilization of FTA schemes in Korea's imports from ASEAN countries, supports the theoretical prediction. We also show that the effects are smaller for more differentiated products.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações

The euro before the financial crisis of 2008: an integrating and stabilizing factor. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Vol. 13 No. 9, June 2013

From the Introduction. The main focus of this study is to examine whether the euro has been an economic, monetary, fiscal, and social stabilizer for the Eurozone. In order to do this, the underpinnings of the euro are analysed, and the requirements and benchmarks that have to be achieved, maintained, and respected are tested against the data found in three major statistics data sources: the European Central Bank’s Statistics Data Warehouse (http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/), Economagic (www.economagic.com), and E-signal. The purpose of this work is to analyse if the euro was a stabilizing factor from its inception to the break of the financial crisis in summer 2008 in the European Union. To answer this question, this study analyses a number of indexes to understand the impact of the euro in three markets: (1) the foreign exchange market, (2) the stock market, and the Crude Oil and commodities markets, (3) the money market.

Ukrainian economy on the verge of recession. OSW Commentary No. 96, 2012-11-21

In the third quarter of 2012, Ukraine’s economy recorded negative growth (-1.3%) for the first time since its 2009 economic crisis. Q4 GDP is projected to suffer a further decline, bringing Ukraine into formal recession. In addition to the worsening macroeconomic indicators, Ukraine is also facing a series of concomitant economic problems: a growing trade deficit, industrial decline, shrinking foreign exchange reserves, and the weakening of the hryvnia. Poor economic growth is expected to result in lower than projected budget revenues, which in turn could lead to the sequestration of the budget in December. The decline evident across the key economic indicators in the second half of 2012 brings to a close a period of relative economic stability and two years of economic growth, which had been seen as a significant personal achievement of President Viktor Yanukovych and the ruling Party of Regions. The health of the Ukrainian economy largely depends on the state of the country’s export- -oriented industries. The current economic forecasts for foreign markets are not very optimistic. It is impossible to determine whether the current economic downturn is likely to be merely temporary or whether it heralds the onset of a prolonged economic crisis. The limited capacity to deal with the growing economic problems may mean that Kiev will need to seek financial support from abroad. This is particularly significant with regard to external debt servicing, since in 2013 Ukraine will need to pay back around 9 billion USD, including over 5.5 billion USD to the International Monetary Fund. In order to overcome the recession and stabilise public finances, the government may be forced to take a series of unpopular measures, including raising the price of natural gas and utilities. These measures have been stipulated by the IMF as a condition of further financial assistance and the disbursement of the 12 billion USD stabilisation loan granted to Ukraine in July 2010. The only alternative for Western loans and economic reforms appears to be financial support from Russia. The price for Moscow’s help might however turn out to be very high, and precipitate a turn in Kiev’s foreign policy towards a gradual re-integration of former Soviet republics under Moscow-led geopolitical projects.

To amend the Currency and foreign transactions reporting act : hearing before the Subcommittee on Financial Institutions Supervision, Regulation and Insurance of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-sixth Congress, second session ... January 29, 1980.

"Serial 96-40."

International monetary problems and the foreign exchanges /

Includes bibliographical references (p. 76-78)

Report on yen/dollar exchange rate issues /

Mode of access: Internet.

To assure a reasonable and stable exchange rate for the dollar : hearing before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-eighth Congress, second session, on H.J. Res. 585 ... August 9, 1984.

Item 1013-A, 1013-B (microfiche)

The A B C of the foreign exchanges : a practical guide /

Mode of access: Internet.

The principles of currency and exchange /

Goldsmiths'-Kress no. 19114.

Reporting foreign operations.

Mode of access: Internet.

Essays on Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06