922 resultados para Forecast accuracy


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Background. Although digital and videotaped images are known to be comparable for the evaluation of left ventricular function, their relative accuracy for assessment of more complex anatomy is unclear. We sought to compare reading time, storage costs, and concordance of video and digital interpretations across multiple observers and sites. Methods. One hundred one patients with valvular (90 mitral, 48 aortic, 80 tricuspid) disease were selected prospectively, and studies were stored according to video and standardized digital protocols. The same reviewer interpreted video and digital images independently and at different times with the use of a standard report form to evaluate 40 items (eg, severity of stenosis or regurgitation, leaflet thickening, and calcification) as normal or mildly, moderately, or severely abnormal Concordance between modalities was expressed at kappa Major discordance (difference of >1 level of severity) was ascribed to the modality that gave the lesser severity. CD-ROM was used to store digital data (20:1 lossy compression), and super-VHS video-tape was used to store video data The reading time and storage costs for each modality were compared Results. Measured parameters were highly concordant (ejection fraction was 52% +/- 13% by both). Major discordance was rare, and lesser values were reported with digital rather than video interpretation in the categories of aortic and mitral valve thicken ing (1% to 2%) and severity of mitral regurgitation (2%). Digital reading time was 6.8 +/- 2.4 minutes, 38% shorter than with video (11.0 +/- 3.0, range 8 to 22 minutes, P < .001). Compressed digital studies had an average size of 60 <plus/minus> 14 megabytes (range 26 to 96 megabytes). Storage cost for video was A$0.62 per patient (18 studies per tape, total cost A$11.20), compared with A$0.31 per patient for digital storage (8 studies per CD-ROM, total cost A$2.50). Conclusion. Digital and video interpretation were highly concordant; in the few cases of major discordance, the digital scores were lower, perhaps reflecting undersampling. Use of additional views and longer clips may be indicated to minimize discordance with video in patients with complex problems. Digital interpretation offers a significant reduction in reading times and the cost of archiving.

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The subjective interpretation of dobutamine echocardiography (DBE) makes the accuracy of this technique dependent on the experience of the observer, and also poses problems of concordance between observers. Myocardial tissue Doppler velocity (MDV) may offer a quantitative technique for identification of coronary artery disease, but it is unclear whether this parameter could improve the results of less expert readers and in segments with low interobserver concordance. The aim of this study was to find whether MDV improved the accuracy of wall motion scoring in novice readers, experienced echocardiographers, and experts in stress echocardiography, and to identify the optimal means of integrating these tissue Doppler data in 77 patients who underwent DBE and angiography. New or worsening abnormalities were identified as ischemia and abnormalities seen at rest as scarring. Segmental MDV was measured independently and previously derived cutoffs were applied to categorize segments as normal or ab normal. Five strategies were used to combine MDV and wall motion score, and the results of each reader using each strategy were compared with quantitative coronary angiography. The accuracy of wall motion scoring by novice (68 +/- 3%) and experienced echocardiographers (71 +/- 3%) was less than experts in stress echocardiography (88 +/- 3%, p < 0.001). Various strategies for integration with MDV significantly improved the accuracy of wall motion scoring by novices from 75 +/- 2% to 77 +/- 5% (p < 0.01). Among the experienced group, accuracy improved from 74 +/- 2% to 77 +/- 5% (p < 0.05), but in the experts, no improvement was seen from their baseline accuracy. Integration with MDV also improved discordance related to the basal segments. Thus, use of MDV in all segments or MDV in all segments with wall motion scoring in the apex offers an improvement in sensitivity and accuracy with minimal compromise in specificity. (C) 2001 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

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It has been recognised that in order to study the displacement, timing and co-ordination of articulatory components (i.e., tongue. lips, jaw) in speech production it is desirable to obtain high-resolution movement data on multiple structures inside and outside the vocal tract. Until recently, with the exception of X-ray techniques such as cineradiography, the study 0. speech movements has been hindered by the inaccessibility of the oral cavity during speech. X-ray techniques are generally not used because of unacceptable radiation exposure. The aim of the present study was to demonstrate the use of a new physiological device, the electromagnetic articulograph, for assessing articulatory dysfunction subsequent to traumatic brain injury. The components of the device together with the measuring principle are described and data collected from a single case presented. A 19 year-old male who exhibited dysarthria subsequent to a traumatic brain injury was fitted wit 2 the electromagnetic articulograph (Carstens AG-100) and a kinematic analysis of his tongue movements during production of the lingual consonants it, s, k/ within single syllable words was performed. Examination of kinematic parameters including movemmt trajectories, velocity, and acceleration revealed differences in the speed and accuracy of his tongue movements compared to those produced by a non-neurologically impaired adult male. It was concluded that the articulograph is a useful device for diagnosing speed and accuracy disorders in tongue movements during speech and that the device has potential for incorporation into physiologically based rehabilitation programs as a real-time biofeedback instrument.

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Diagnosis involves a complex and overlapping series of steps, each of which may be a source of error and of variability between clinicians. This variation may involve the ability to elicit relevant information from the client or animal, in the accuracy, objectivity and completeness of relevant memory stores, and in psychological attributes including tolerance for uncertainty and willingness to engage in constructive self-criticism. The diagnostic acumen of an individual clinician may not be constant, varying with external and personal factors, with different clients and cases, and with the use made of tests. In relation to clients, variations may occur in the ability to gain their confidence, to ask appropriate questions and to evaluate accurately both verbal and nonverbal responses. Tests may introduce problems of accuracy, validity, sensitivity, specificity, interpretation and general appropriateness for the case. Continuing effectiveness as a diagnostician therefore requires constant attention to the maintenance of adequate and up-to-date skills and knowledge relating to the animals and their diseases and to tests, and of sensitive interpersonal skills.

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Objective: To assess the diagnostic error rate among echocardiograms undertaken by individuals other than paediatric cardiologists in our referral area. Methodology: External group: The charts and echocardiographic results of all patients who had undergone outside echocardiograms between January 1996 and December 1999 were reviewed (110). Age at echocardiography, diagnostic complexity, presence of any diagnostic errors and the severity of any diagnostic errors were identified. Internal group: To assess our own error rate, the initial echocardiographic diagnoses of 100 patients undergoing cardiac catheterisation or corrective surgery were compared with the post-catheterisation or postoperative diagnoses. Age and diagnostic complexity were also assessed in the control group. Results: Diagnostic errors occurred in 47/110 patients (44%) of the externally studied group (of which 24% were either major or life threatening) as opposed to 3/100 of the internally studied group, despite the internally studied group being of increased diagnostic complexity. Errors were more common and of increased severity in infants less than 1 month of age but extended throughout all age groups. Major and life threatening errors increased with increasing diagnostic complexity. In the externally studied group, 8/47 errors were patients inappropriately designated as normal. Four of these patients required cardiac surgery or interventional cardiac catheterisation. Conclusions: This study suggests an unacceptably high error rate in paediatric echocardiographic diagnoses by non-paediatric cardiologists throughout all age groups. Such errors are more likely in younger infants and with increasing diagnostic complexity.

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Objective To assess the accuracy of intra-operative frozen section reports at identifying the features of high risk uterine disease compared with final histopathology. Design Retrospective study. Methods The records, of 460 patients with uterine cancer registered with the Queensland Centre for Gynaecological Cancer between January 1, 1996 and December 31, 1998 were reviewed. Intra-operative frozen section was undertaken in 260 patients with endometrial adenocarcinoma. Frozen section pathology was compared with the final histopathology reports. Inter-observer reliability was assessed using percentage agreement and kappa statistics. Clinical notes were also reviewed to determine if errors resulted in sub-optimal patient care. Results Respectively, tumour grade and depth of myometrial invasion were accurately reported in 88.6% of cases (expected 61.5%, Kappa 0.70) and 94.7% (expected 53.8%, Kappa 0.89). Errors were predominantly attributable to difficulties with respect to the interpretation of tumour grade. The error resulted in the patient receiving sub-optimal surgical management in only I I cases (5.3%) Conclusion Frozen section is accurate at identifying the features of high risk uterine disease in the setting of endometrial cancer and can play an important role in directing primary operative management.

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Objectives: To assess the accuracy of reporting from both a diet history and food record and identify some of the characteristics of more accurate reporters in a group of healthy adult volunteers for an energy balance study. Design: Prospective measurements in free-living people. Setting: Wollongong, Australia. Subjects: Fifteen healthy volunteers (seven male, eight female; aged 22 -59 y; body mass index (BMI) 19 - 33 kg/m(2)) from the local community in the city of Wollongong, Australia. Interventions: Measurement of energy intake via diet history interview and 7 day food records, total energy expenditure by the doubly labelled water technique over 14 days, physical activity by questionnaire, and body fat by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Results: Increased misreporting of energy intake was associated with increased energy expenditure (r = 0.90, P < 0.0001, diet history; r(s)=0.79, P=0.0005, food records) but was not associated with age, sex, BMI or body fat. Range in number of recorded dinner foods correlated positively with energy expenditure (r(s)=0.63, P=0.01) and degree of misreporting (r(s)=0.71, P=0.003, diet history; r(s)=0.63, P=0.01, food records). Variation in energy intake at dinner and over the whole day identified by the food records correlated positively with energy expenditure (r=0.58, P = 0.02) and misreporting on the diet history (r=0.62, P=0.01). Conclusions: Subjects who are highly active or who have variable dietary and exercise behaviour may be less accurate in reporting dietary intake. Our findings indicate that it may be necessary to screen for these characteristics in studies where accuracy of reporting at an individual level is critical. Sponsorship: The study was supported in part by Australian Research Council funds made available through the University of Wollongong.

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OBJECTIVES The goal of this study was to determine whether wall stress at rest and during stress could explain the influence of left ventricular (LV) morphology on the accuracy of dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE). BACKGROUND The sensitivity of DSE appears to be reduced in patients with concentric remodeling, but the cause of this finding is unclear. METHODS We studied 161 patients without resting wall motion abnormalities who underwent DSE and coronary angiography. Patients were classified into four groups according to relative wan thickness (normal

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An integrated model relating workplace rumor activity, belief, and accuracy is proposed and tested. Senior VPs of Communications from a sample of Fortune-500 corporations and CEOs of established public relations firms were surveyed regarding rumor episodes that they had experienced. Results confirmed previous research on the role of uncertainty, anxiety, and belief in rumor activity. In addition, a reduced sense of control mediated the effects of uncertainty on anxiety, and anxiety mediated the effects of importance on rumor activity. Evidence was found for the roles of group bias in how strongly a rumor is believed. Rumor activity was also implicated in the formation of more accurate rumors. The significance of these results for rumor theory and for Public Relations practitioners is presented. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

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Retrospective assessment of maternal smoking or substance use during pregnancy is sometimes unavoidable. The unusually close relationship of twin sister pairs permits comparison of self-report data versus co-twin informant data on substance use during pregnancy. Information about smoking during pregnancy has been gathered from a series of mothers from an Australian volunteer twin panel (576 women reporting on 995 pregnancies), supplemented in many cases by independent ratings of their smoking by twin sister informants (821 pregnancies). Estimates of the proportion of women who had never smoked regularly (56-58%), who had smoked but did not smoke during a particular pregnancy (16-21%), or who smoked throughout the pregnancy (16-18%), were in good agreement whether based on self-report or twin sister informant data. However, informants underreported cases who smoked during the first trimester but then quit (1-3% versus 7-9% by self-report). Women who smoked throughout pregnancy (by informant report) rarely denied a history of regular smoking (

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In this paper, we present a method for estimating local thickness distribution in nite element models, applied to injection molded and cast engineering parts. This method features considerable improved performance compared to two previously proposed approaches, and has been validated against thickness measured by di erent human operators. We also demonstrate that the use of this method for assigning a distribution of local thickness in FEM crash simulations results in a much more accurate prediction of the real part performance, thus increasing the bene ts of computer simulations in engineering design by enabling zero-prototyping and thus reducing product development costs. The simulation results have been compared to experimental tests, evidencing the advantage of the proposed method. Thus, the proposed approach to consider local thickness distribution in FEM crash simulations has high potential on the product development process of complex and highly demanding injection molded and casted parts and is currently being used by Ford Motor Company.

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Background: Several studies link the seamless fit of implant-supported prosthesis with the accuracy of the dental impression technique obtained during acquisition. In addition, factors such as implant angulation and coping shape contribute to implant misfit. Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the most accurate impression technique and factors affecting the impression accuracy. Material and Methods: A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature was conducted analyzing articles published between 2009 and 2013. The following search terms were used: implant impression, impression accuracy, and implant misfit.A total of 417 articles were identified; 32 were selected for review. Results: All 32 selected studies refer to in vitro studies. Fourteen articles compare open and closed impression technique, 8 advocate the open technique, and 6 report similar results. Other 14 articles evaluate splinted and non-splinted techniques; all advocating the splinted technique. Polyether material usage was reported in nine; six studies tested vinyl polysiloxane and one study used irreversible hydrocolloid. Eight studies evaluated different copings designs. Intraoral optical devices were compared in four studies. Conclusions: The most accurate results were achieved with two configurations: (1) the optical intraoral system with powder and (2) the open technique with splinted squared transfer copings, using polyether as impression material.