The added value from adopting a CGE approach to analyse changes in environmental trade balances

The application of multi-region environmental input-output (IO) analysis to the problem of accounting for emissions generation (and/or resource use) under different accounting principles has become increasingly common in the ecological and environmental economics literature in particular, with applications at the international and interregional subnational level. However, while environmental IO analysis is invaluable in accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. Where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, extension from an IO accounting framework to a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach, where behavioural relationships can be modelled in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is appropriate. Our argument is illustrated by comparing the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels effect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.

Work Hours, Social Value of Leisure and Globalisation

We examine how openness interacts with the coordination of consumption-leisure decisions in determining the equilibrium working hours and wage rate when there are leisure externalities (e.g., due to social interactions). The latter are modelled by allowing a worker’s marginal utility of leisure to be increasing in the leisure time taken by other workers. Coordination takes the form of internalising the leisure externality and other relevant constraints (e.g., labour demand). The extent of openness is measured by the degree of capital mobility. We find that: coordination lowers equilibrium work hours and raises the wage rate; there is a U-shaped (inverse-U-shaped) relationship between work hours (wages) and the degree of coordination; coordination is welfare improving; and, the gap between the coordinated and uncoordinated work hours (and the corresponding wage rates) is affected by the extent and nature of openness.

The Export Base Model with a Supply-Side Stimulus to the Export Sector

Paper delivered at the Western Regional Science Association Annual Conference, Sedona, Arizona, February, 2010.

Balanced Budget Government Spending in a Small Open Regional Economy

This paper investigates the impact of a balanced budget fiscal policy expansion in a regional context within a numerical dynamic general equilibrium model. We take Scotland as an example where, recently, there has been extensive debate on greater fiscal autonomy. In response to a balanced budget fiscal expansion the model suggests that: an increase in current government purchase in goods and services has negative multiplier effects only if the elasticity of substitution between private and public consumption is high enough to move downward the marginal utility of private consumers; public capital expenditure crowds in consumption and investment even with a high level of congestion; but crowding out effects might arise in the short-run if agents are myopic.

Fiscal Policy and Learning

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature (in sharp contrast to the implausibly low values under RE). Effectiveness of fiscal policy is demonstrated during times of economic stress like the recent Great Recession. Finally it is shown how learning can lead to dynamics empirically documented during episodes of 'fiscal consolidations.'

The Distribution Dynamics of Output Multipliers in Scotland 1998–2007

In an input-output context the impact of any particular industrial sector is commonly measured in terms of the output multiplier for that industry. Although such measures are routinely calculated and often used to guide regional industrial policy the behaviour of such measures over time is an area that has attracted little academic study. The output multipliers derived from any one table will have a distribution; for some industries the multiplier will be relatively high, for some it will be relatively low. The recentpublication of consistent input-output tables for the Scottish economy makes it possible to examine trends in this mdistribution over the ten year period 1998-2007. This is done by comparing the means and other summary measures of the distributions, the histograms and the cumulative densities. The results indicate a tendency for the multipliers to increase over the period. A Markov chain modelling approach suggests that this drift is a slow but long term phenomenon which appears not to tend to an equilibrium state. The prime reason for the increase in the output multipliers is traced to a decline in the relative importance of imported (both from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world) intermediate inputs used by Scottish industries. This suggests that models calibrated on the set of tables might have to be interpreted with caution.

Type II Errors in IO Multipliers

This paper compares methods for calculating Input-Output (IO) Type II multipliers. These are formulations of the standard Leontief IO model which endogenise elements of household consumption. An analytical comparison of the two basic IO Type II multiplier methods with the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach identifies the treatment of non-wage income generated in production as a central problem. The multiplier values for each of the IO and SAM methods are calculated using Scottish data for 2009. These results can be used to choose which Type II IO multiplier to adopt where SAM multiplier values are unavailable.

Budget constrained expenditure multipliers

We show that standard expenditure multipliers capture economy-wide effects of new government projects only when financing constraints are not binding. In actual policy making, however, new projects usually need financing. Under liquidity constraints, new projects are subject to two opposite effects: an income effect and a set of spending substitution effects. The former is the traditional, unrestricted, multiplier effect; the latter is the result of expenditure reallocation to upheld effective financing constraints. Unrestricted multipliers will therefore be, as a general rule, upward biased and policy designs based upon them should be reassessed in the light of the countervailing substitution effects.

"Acheiro-poïétique" du cinéma: le Christ révélé par l'écran

Selon la tradition orientale, les représentations de Jésus trouveraient toutes leur origine dans les images acheiropoïètes, c'est-à-dire dans des figurations de la "Sainte Face" du Christ non faites de main d'homme, mais survenues par apparition divine -sur le voile de Véronique, le Saint Suaire, le mandylion d'Edesse, etc. Ces images qui, pour des théologiens de l'icône tels que Léonide Ouspensky, ne sont rien moins que "la manifestation du miracle fondamental : la venue du Créateur dans sa création" (in L'Image du Christ non faite de main d'homme, 1989), ont toujours été le ferment d'expérimentations multiples chez les peintres et les sculpteurs.Mais la réflexion artistique s'est cristallisée au moment où ces images sont devenues l'apanage de médiums issus de "l'ère de la reproductibilité technique" chère à Benjamin. En effet, les images "théographes" auraient pour spécificité d'être engendrées et de se multiplier par empreinte immédiate: une toile quelconque n'aurait qu'à être touchée par le visage du Christ pour devenir instantanément le support du divin portrait, et acquérir dès lors le "pouvoir reconnu aux acheiropoïètes de créer des doubles de même valeur, par simple contact" (François Boespflug, Dieu et ses images. Une histoire de l'Eternel dans l'art, 2008). Comment mieux faire écho aux principes mêmes de l'image (ciné)photographique, générée par indicialité et reproductibilité? André Bazin a eu l'intuition de cette parenté dans le cadre de sa théorisation sur le pouvoir "révélateur" de l'image (ciné)photographique qui selon lui procéderait "par sa genèse" de "l'ontologie du modèle" et "serait" le modèle; il a évoqué le Saint Suaire de Turin comme rejouant, voire emblématisant cette même "ontologie de l'image photographique" (dans l'article homonyme de 1945). Si Bazin ne développe pas plus avant ses considérations, la corrélation des dispositifs (ciné)photographique et acheiropoïète a connu un questionnement « en actes », au sein des films cherchant à représenter Jésus.Valentine Robert s'intéresse à ces expérimentations, à commencer par un projet de film d'Abel Gance de 1947, resté inachevé, où le suaire de Turin devait se transformer en écran de cinéma. Plusieurs autres productions seront abordées, telles que Civilization ou The Robe, qui explorent les effets visuels permis par la pellicule pour montrer le Christ en surimpression, dans une sorte d'"apparition technologique", ou telles que The Jesus Film ou The Passion of the Christ, dont la projection a été reçue par certains publics comme une apparition sacrée réactualisant l'Incarnation. Les modalités de la représentation des images acheiropoïètes et plus généralement de l'apparition de Jésus à l'écran seront enfin évoquées - de la tradition hollywoodiennes qui consistait à refuser l'accès de la "Sainte Face" à la pellicule et de la rejeter hors-champ jusqu'aux séquences d'Ecce Homo de Scorsese et Zeffirelli, en passant par la révélation visuelle inaugurant The King of Kings, qui pousse à son paroxysme la collusion entre apparition divine et apparition cinématographique.

Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending

We study the effects of government spending by using a structural, large dimensional, dynamic factor model. We find that the government spending shock is non-fundamental for the variables commonly used in the structural VAR literature, so that its impulse response functions cannot be consistently estimated by means of a VAR. Government spending raises both consumption and investment, with no evidence of crowding out. The impact multiplier is 1.7 and the long run multiplier is 0.6.

Genomics of "chlamydia"-related bacteria

AbstractThe Chlamydiales order is an important bacterial phylum that comprises some of the most successful human pathogens such as Chlamydia trachomatis, the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. Since some years, several new bacteria related to Chlamydia have been discovered in clinical or environmental samples and might represent emerging pathogens. The genome sequencing of classical Chlamydia has brought invaluable information on these obligate intracellular bacteria otherwise difficult to study due to the lack of tools to perform basic genetic manipulation. The recent emergence of high-throughput sequencing technologies yielding millions of reads in a short time lowered the costs of genome sequencing and thus represented a unique opportunity to study Chlamydia-re\ated bacteria. Based on the sequencing and the analysis of Chlamydiales genomes, this thesis provides significant insights into the genetic determinants of the intracellular lifestyle, the pathogenicity, the metabolism and the evolution of Chlamydia-related bacteria. A first approach showed the efficacy of rapid sequencing coupled to proteomics to identify immunogenic proteins. This method, particularly useful for an emerging pathogen such as Parachlamydia acanthamoebae, enabled us to discover good candidates for the development of diagnostic tools that would permit to evaluate at larger scale the role of this bacterium in disease. Second, the complete genome of Waddlia chondrophila, a potential agent of miscarriage, encodes numerous virulence factors to manipulate its host cell and resist to environmental stresses. The reconstruction of metabolic pathways showed that the bacterium possesses extensive capabilities compared to related organisms. However, it is still incapable of synthesizing some essential components and thus has to import them from its host. Third, the genome comparison of Protochlamydia naegleriophila to its closest known relative Protochlamydia amoebophila revealed a particular evolutionary dynamic with the occurrence of an unexpected genome rearrangement. Fourth, a phylogenetic analysis of P. acanthamoebae and Legionella drancourtii identified several genes probably exchanged by horizontal gene transfer with other intracellular bacteria that might occur within their amoebal host. These genes often encode mechanisms for resistance to metal or toxic compounds. As a whole, the analysis of the different genomes enabled us to highlight a large diversity in size, GC percentage, repeat content as well as plasmid organization. The abundant genomic data obtained during this thesis have a wide impact since they provide the necessary bases for detailed investigations on countless aspects of the biology and the evolution of Chlamydia-related bacteria, whether in wet lab or by bioinformatical analyses.RésuméL'ordre des Chlamydiales est un important phylum bactérien qui comprend de nombreuses espèces pathogènes pour l'homme et les animaux, dont Chlamydia trachomatis, responsable du trachome, la cause majeure de cécité d'origine infectieuse à travers le monde. Durant ces dernières décennies, de nombreuses bactéries apparentées aux Chlamydia ont été découvertes dans des échantillons environnementaux ou cliniques mais leur éventuel rôle pathogène dans le développement de maladies reste peu connu. Ces bactéries sont des intracellulaires obligatoires car elles ont besoin d'une cellule hôte pour se multiplier, ce qui rend leur étude particulièrement difficile. Le développement de nouvelles technologies permettant de séquencer le génome d'un organisme rapidement et à moindre coût ainsi que l'essor des méthodes d'analyse s'y rapportant représentent une opportunité exceptionnelle d'étudier ces organismes. Dans ce contexte, cette thèse démontre l'utilité de la génomique pour développer de nouveaux outils diagnostiques ainsi que pour étudier le métabolisme de ces bactéries, leurs facteurs de virulence et leur évolution.Ainsi, une première approche a illustré l'utilité d'un séquençage rapide pour obtenir les informations nécessaires à l'identification de protéines qui sont reconnues par des anticorps humains ou animaux. Cette méthode, particulièrement utile pour un pathogène émergent tel que Parachlamydia acanthamoebae, a permis de découvrir de bons candidats pour le développement d'un outil diagnostique qui permettrait d'évaluer à plus large échelle le rôle de cette bactérie notamment dans la pneumonie. L'analyse du contenu génique de Waddlia chondrophila, un autre germe qui pourrait être impliqué dans les avortements et tes fausses-couches, a en outre mis en évidence la présence de nombreux facteurs connus qui lui permettent de manipuler son hôte. Cette bactérie possède de plus grandes capacités métaboliques que les autres Chlamydia, mais elle est incapable de synthétiser certains composants et doit donc les importer de son hôte pour subvenir à ses besoins. La comparaison du génome de Protochlamydia naegleriophila à son plus proche parent, Protochlamydia amoebophila, a dévoilé une évolution dynamique particulière avec l'occurrence d'un réarrangement majeur inattendu après la séparation de ces deux espèces. En outre, ces études ont montré l'occurrence de plusieurs transferts de gène avec d'autres organismes plus éloignés, notamment d'autres intracellulaires d'amibes, souvent pour l'acquisition de mécanismes de résistances à des composés toxiques. Les données génomiques acquises durant ce travail posent les fondements nécessaires a de nombreuses analyses qui permettront progressivement de mieux comprendre de nombreux aspects de ces bactéries fascinantes.

Straightening out the concept of direct and indirect input requirements

Gim & Kim (1998) proposed a generalization of Jeong (1982, 1984) reinterpretation of the Hawkins-Simon condition for macroeconomic stability to off-diagonal matrix elements. This generalization is conceptually relevant for it offers a complementary view of interindustry linkages beyond final or net output influence. The extension is completely similar to the 'total flow' idea introduced by Szyrmer (1992) or the 'output-to-output' multiplier of Miller & Blair (2009). However the practical implementation of Gim & Kim is actually faulty since it confuses the appropriate order of output normalization. We provide a new and elementary solution for the correct formalization using standard interindustry accounting concepts.

The Effects of government spending on the distribution of consumption

We study the effects of government spending on the distribution of consumption. We find a substantial degree of heterogeneity: consumption increases at the bottom and falls at the top of the distribution, implying a significant temporary reduction of consumption inequality. The effects of the shock display correlations of around -0.7/-0.9 with the percentage of stockholders within the decile. We interpret the results as in line and yielding support to models of limited participation where, while the Ricardian equivalence holds for rich households, for poor household, with no access to capital markets, the Keynesian multiplier is at work.

Some conceptual difficulties regarding "net" multipliers

Multipliers are routinely used for impact evaluation of private projects and public policies at the national and subnational levels. Oosterhaven and Stelder (2002) correctly pointed out the misuse of standard 'gross' multipliers and proposed the concept of 'net' multiplier as a solution to this bad practice. We prove their proposal is not well founded. We do so by showing that supporting theorems are faulty in enunciation and demonstration. The proofs are flawed due to an analytical error but the theorems themselves cannot be salvaged as generic, non-curiosum counterexamples demonstrate. We also provide a general analytical framework for multipliers and, using it, we show that standard 'gross' multipliers are all that is needed within the interindustry model since they follow the causal logic of the economic model, are well defined and independent of exogenous shocks, and are interpretable as predictors for change.

Supply Multipliers in Two Regional Economies

This paper focuses on the analysis of the economic impact that sectorial total factor productivity – or valued added - gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular it is studied the quantitative effect that each sector’s valued added injections has on household welfare (real disposable income), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government and foreign net income. To do that, we introduce the concept of supply multiplier. The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which it is assumed perfect competition and cleared markets of goods and factors. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow identifying those sectors with the greatest multipliers impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: efficiency gains, supply multipliers, key sectors, computable general equilibrium. JEL Classification: C68, R13.