Simulation -based smoothing and filtering in factor stochastic volatility models : two econometric applications (July-2001)

The past decade has wítenessed a series of (well accepted and defined) financial crises periods in the world economy. Most of these events aI,"e country specific and eventually spreaded out across neighbor countries, with the concept of vicinity extrapolating the geographic maps and entering the contagion maps. Unfortunately, what contagion represents and how to measure it are still unanswered questions. In this article we measure the transmission of shocks by cross-market correlation\ coefficients following Forbes and Rigobon's (2000) notion of shift-contagion,. Our main contribution relies upon the use of traditional factor model techniques combined with stochastic volatility mo deIs to study the dependence among Latin American stock price indexes and the North American indexo More specifically, we concentrate on situations where the factor variances are modeled by a multivariate stochastic volatility structure. From a theoretical perspective, we improve currently available methodology by allowing the factor loadings, in the factor model structure, to have a time-varying structure and to capture changes in the series' weights over time. By doing this, we believe that changes and interventions experienced by those five countries are well accommodated by our models which learns and adapts reasonably fast to those economic and idiosyncratic shocks. We empirically show that the time varying covariance structure can be modeled by one or two common factors and that some sort of contagion is present in most of the series' covariances during periods of economical instability, or crisis. Open issues on real time implementation and natural model comparisons are thoroughly discussed.

Size and book to market effects and the Fama French three factor asset pricing model: Evidence from the Australian stockmarket

The present study adds to the sparse published Australian literature on the size effect, the book to market (BM) effect and the ability of the Fama French three factor model to account for these effects and to improve on the asset pricing ability of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The present study extends the 1981–1991 period examined by Halliwell, Heaney and Sawicki (1999) a further 10 years to 2000 and addresses several limitations and findings of that research. In contrast to Halliwell, Heaney and Sawicki the current study finds the three factor model provides significantly improved explanatory power over the CAPM, and evidence that the BM factor plays a role in asset pricing.

The gambling related cognitions scale (GRCS): development, confirmatory factor validation and psychometric properties

Aims The aims of this study are to develop and validate a measure to screen for a range of gambling-related cognitions (GRC) in gamblers. Design and participants A total of 968 volunteers were recruited from a community-based population. They were divided randomly into two groups. Principal axis factoring with varimax rotation was performed on group one and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used on group two to confirm the best-fitted solution. Measurements The Gambling Related Cognition Scale (GRCS) was developed for this study and the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), the Motivation Towards Gambling Scale (MTGS) and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-2 1) were used for validation. Findings Exploratory factor analysis performed using half the sample indicated five factors, which included interpretative control/bias (GRCS-IB), illusion of control (GRCS-IC), predictive control (GRCS-PC), gambling-related expectancies (GRCS-GE) and a perceived inability to stop gambling (GRCS-IS). These accounted for 70% of the total variance. Using the other half of the sample, CFA confirmed that the five-factor solution fitted the data most effectively. Cronbach's alpha coefficients for the factors ranged from 0.77 to 0.91, and 0.93 for the overall scale. Conclusions This paper demonstrated that the 23-item GRCS has good psychometric properties and thus is a useful instrument for identifying GRC among non-clinical gamblers. It provides the first step towards devising/adapting similar tools for problem gamblers as well as developing more specialized instruments to assess particular domains of GRC.

Factor structure of the Mood and Anxiety Symptom Questionnaire does not generalize to an anxious/depressed sample

Objective: The tripartite model of anxiety and depression has been proposed as a representation of the structure of anxiety and depression symptoms. The Mood and Anxiety Symptom Questionnaire (MASQ) has been put forwards as a valid measure of the tripartite model of anxiety and depression symptoms. This research set out to examine the factor structure of anxiety and depression symptoms in a clinical sample to assess the MASQ's validity for use in this population. MethodsThe present study uses confirmatory factor analytic methods to examine the psychometric properties of the MASQ in 470 outpatients with anxiety and mood disorder. Results: The results showed that none of the previously reported two-factor, three-factor or five-factor models adequately fit the data, irrespective of whether items or subscales were used as the unit of analysis. Conclusions: It was concluded that the factor structure of the MASQ in a mixed anxiety/depression clinical sample does not support a structure consistent with the tripartite model. This suggests that researchers using the MASQ with anxious/depressed individuals should be mindful of the instrument's psychometric limitations.

Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

Long-term risk stratification for survivors of acute coronary syndromes - Results from the long-term intervention with pravastatin in ischemic disease (LIPID) study

OBJECTIVES We developed a prognostic strategy for quantifying the long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in survivors of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND Strategies for quantifying long-term risk of CHD events have generally been confined to primary prevention settings. The Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) study, which demonstrated that pravastatin reduces CHD events in ACS survivors with a broad range of cholesterol levels, enabled assessment of long-term prognosis in a secondary prevention setting. METHODS Based on outcomes in 8,557 patients in the LIPID study, a multivariate risk factor model was developed for prediction of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Prognostic indexes were developed based on the model, and low-, medium-, high- and very high-risk groups were defined by categorizing the prognostic indexes. RESULTS In addition to pravastatin treatment, the independently significant risk factors included: total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, age, gender, smoking status, qualifying ACS, prior coronary revascularization, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and prior stroke. Pravastatin reduced coronary event rates in each risk level, and the relative risk reduction did not vary significantly between risk levels. The predicted five-year coronary event rates ranged from 5% to 19% for those assigned pravastatin and from 6.4% to 23.6% fur those assigned placebo. CONCLUSIONS Long-term prognosis of ACS survivors varied substantially according to conventional risk factor profile. Pravastatin reduced coronary risk within all risk levels; however, absolute risk remained high in treated patients with unfavorable profiles. Our risk stratification strategy enables identification of ACS survivors who remain at very high risk despite statin therapy. CT Am Coil Cardiol 2001;38:56-63) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.

Do personality factors predict job satisfaction?

Two studies investigated the relationships between personality traits and aspects of job satisfaction. In Study 1, job applicants (n=250) completed the Eysenck Personality Profiler and the Work Values Questionnaire (WVQ), which requires respondents to rate various work-related facets according to the extent to which they contribute to their job satisfaction. These facets were combined into two composites (hygiene and motivator) based on previous research. The three personality superfactors accounted for a small percentage of the variance in importance ratings (about 5%). In Study 2, employees (n=82) completed a measure of the 'Big Five' personality traits and the Job Satisfaction Questionnaire (JSQ), which assesses both what respondents consider as important in their work environment as well as their satisfaction with their current job. Importance ratings were again combined into two composites while job satisfaction ratings were factor analyzed and three factors, differentiated along hygiene versus motivator lines, emerged. Personality traits again accounted for a small percentage of the total variance both in importance ratings and in levels of job satisfaction. It is concluded that personality does not have a strong or consistent influence either on what individuals perceive as important in their work environment or on their levels of job satisfaction. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

The role of an illiquidity factor in the Portuguese stock market

This study examines the role of illiquidity (proxied by the proportion of zero returns) as an additional risk factor in asset pricing. We use Portuguese monthly data, covering the period between January 1988 and December 2008. We compute an illiquidity factor using the Fama and French [Fama, E. F., and K. R. French (1993), "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds", Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 33, Nº. 1, pp. 3-56] procedure and analyze the performance of CAPM, Fama-French three-factor model and illiquidity-augmented versions of these models in explaining both the time-series and the cross-section of returns. Our results reveal that the effect of characteristic liquidity is subsumed by the models considered, but the risk of illiquidity is not priced in the Portuguese stock market.

Psychosocial Determinants of Quality of Life 6 Months After Transplantation: Longitudinal Prospective Study

OBJECTIVES: We sought to investigate the psychosocial determinants of quality of life at 6 months after transplantation. METHODS: A sample of liver transplant candidates (n = 60), composed of consecutive patients (25% with familial amyloid polyneuropathy [FAP]) attending outpatient clinics was assessed in the pretransplant period using the Neo Five Factor Inventory, Hospital Anxiety and depression Scale (HADS), Brief COPE, and SF-36, a quality-of-life, self-rating questionnaire. Six months after transplantation, these patients were assessed by means of the SF-36. RESULTS: Psychosocial predictors where found by means of multiple regression analysis. The physical component of quality of life at 6 months after transplantation was determined based upon coping strategies and physical quality of life in the pretransplant period (this model explained 32% of variance). The mental component at 6 months after transplantation was determined by depression in the pretransplant period and by clinical diagnoses of patients. Because FAP patients show a lower mental component of quality of life, this diagnosis explained 25% of the variance. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggested that coping strategies and depression measured in the pretransplant period are important determinants of quality of life at 6 months after liver transplantation.

Generalized factor models: a bayesian approach

There is recent interest in the generalization of classical factor models in which the idiosyncratic factors are assumed to be orthogonal and there are identification restrictions on cross-sectional and time dimensions. In this study, we describe and implement a Bayesian approach to generalized factor models. A flexible framework is developed to determine the variations attributed to common and idiosyncratic factors. We also propose a unique methodology to select the (generalized) factor model that best fits a given set of data. Applying the proposed methodology to the simulated data and the foreign exchange rate data, we provide a comparative analysis between the classical and generalized factor models. We find that when there is a shift from classical to generalized, there are significant changes in the estimates of the structures of the covariance and correlation matrices while there are less dramatic changes in the estimates of the factor loadings and the variation attributed to common factors.

Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and volatilities, and our model averaging method allows for investors' model uncertainty over time. Our time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (NS-DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks and successfully captures plausible time-varying term premia in real time. The proposed model has significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability for excess bond returns, and the predictability is of economic value.

Orthogonal higher order structure and confirmatory factor analysis of the French Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-III).

According to the most widely accepted Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence measurement, each subtest score of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Adults (3rd ed.; WAIS-III) should reflect both 1st- and 2nd-order factors (i.e., 4 or 5 broad abilities and 1 general factor). To disentangle the contribution of each factor, we applied a Schmid-Leiman orthogonalization transformation (SLT) to the standardization data published in the French technical manual for the WAIS-III. Results showed that the general factor accounted for 63% of the common variance and that the specific contributions of the 1st-order factors were weak (4.7%-15.9%). We also addressed this issue by using confirmatory factor analysis. Results indicated that the bifactor model (with 1st-order group and general factors) better fit the data than did the traditional higher order structure. Models based on the CHC framework were also tested. Results indicated that a higher order CHC model showed a better fit than did the classical 4-factor model; however, the WAIS bifactor structure was the most adequate. We recommend that users do not discount the Full Scale IQ when interpreting the index scores of the WAIS-III because the general factor accounts for the bulk of the common variance in the French WAIS-III. The 4 index scores cannot be considered to reflect only broad ability because they include a strong contribution of the general factor.

Robust Factor Analysis for Compositional Data

Factor analysis as frequent technique for multivariate data inspection is widely used also for compositional data analysis. The usual way is to use a centered logratio (clr)transformation to obtain the random vector y of dimension D. The factor model istheny = Λf + e (1)with the factors f of dimension k & D, the error term e, and the loadings matrix Λ.Using the usual model assumptions (see, e.g., Basilevsky, 1994), the factor analysismodel (1) can be written asCov(y) = ΛΛT + ψ (2)where ψ = Cov(e) has a diagonal form. The diagonal elements of ψ as well as theloadings matrix Λ are estimated from an estimation of Cov(y).Given observed clr transformed data Y as realizations of the random vectory. Outliers or deviations from the idealized model assumptions of factor analysiscan severely effect the parameter estimation. As a way out, robust estimation ofthe covariance matrix of Y will lead to robust estimates of Λ and ψ in (2), seePison et al. (2003). Well known robust covariance estimators with good statisticalproperties, like the MCD or the S-estimators (see, e.g. Maronna et al., 2006), relyon a full-rank data matrix Y which is not the case for clr transformed data (see,e.g., Aitchison, 1986).The isometric logratio (ilr) transformation (Egozcue et al., 2003) solves thissingularity problem. The data matrix Y is transformed to a matrix Z by usingan orthonormal basis of lower dimension. Using the ilr transformed data, a robustcovariance matrix C(Z) can be estimated. The result can be back-transformed tothe clr space byC(Y ) = V C(Z)V Twhere the matrix V with orthonormal columns comes from the relation betweenthe clr and the ilr transformation. Now the parameters in the model (2) can beestimated (Basilevsky, 1994) and the results have a direct interpretation since thelinks to the original variables are still preserved.The above procedure will be applied to data from geochemistry. Our specialinterest is on comparing the results with those of Reimann et al. (2002) for the Kolaproject data

Validation interne de la version française du NEO-PI-R et influence de l'âge, du sexe et de la profession

We have examined the internal validity of the French translation of the NEO PI-R personality test which measures the « big five » (Rolland, 1993). The impact of age, gender and professional categories on the NEO PI-R scales was assessed. A large sample (n=731) of subjects of different age, gender and profession and a sample of Swiss students (n=261) responding anonymously were used. Factor analyses confirmed the structure of the instrument (5 domains) and the structures of the domains in terms of facets (six facets within each domain). On the other hand, the age has a significant impact on all the domains of the NEO PI-R; the gender has an impact on the scores on N (neuroticism), O (openness) and A (agreeableness), and the profession has an impact on the domains E (extraversion), O (openness) and A (agreeableness). The scores on several facets are also affected by those three variables. Our study gives the researchers and the practitioner a reference score table according to the studied variables.

Validation de la version française de l'échelle de contrôle de Levenson (IPC), influence de variables démographiques et de la personnalité

We have examined the internal validity of the Levenson's locus of control scales (IPC, Internal, Powerful others and Chances), translated by Loas et al. (1994). The impact of different demographic variables on the Levenson's locus of control scales was assessed. After, we studied the relation between the IPC scales and the NEO PI R, personality inventory that measures the big five. A large sample (n=200) of subjects of different age, gender and profession and a sample of Swiss students (n=161) responding anonymously were used. The reliability of the IPC scale is acceptable. The analyses of the impact of the demographic variables show that gender and level of education have an influence on the I (intern) scale. Age, gender, level of education and profession have an impact on the P (powerful others) scale. The analyses of the relationship between locus of control and personality showed that there was a negative correlation between I (intern) and Neuroticism and a positive correlation between I and Extraversion and Consciousness. The P (powerful others) scale correlate positively with Neuroticism and negatively with Openness and Agreability. The C scale (chance) correlate positively with Neuroticism. Our study also gives the researchers and the practitioner a reference score table according to the gender, the age, the level of education and the profession.