The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) has been investigated using an objective feature tracking methodology to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Overall the results show that the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of skill than the NCEP EPS in the northern hemisphere (NH). However in the southern hemisphere (SH), NCEP has higher predictive skill than ECMWF for the intensity of the cyclones. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. Further analysis shows that the predicted propagation speed of cyclones is generally too slow for the ECMWF EPS and show a slight bias for the intensity of the cyclones to be overpredicted. This is also true for the NCEP EPS in the SH. For the NCEP EPS in the NH the intensity of the cyclones is underpredicted. There is small bias in both the EPS for the cyclones to be displaced towards the poles. For each ensemble forecast of each cyclone, the predictive skill of the ensemble member that best predicts the cyclones position and intensity was computed. The results are very encouraging showing that the predictive skill of the best ensemble member is significantly higher than that of the control forecast in terms of both the position and intensity of the cyclones. The prediction of cyclones before they are identified as 850 hPa vorticity centers in the analysis cycle was also considered. It is shown that an indication of extratropical cyclones can be given by at least 1 ensemble member 7 days before they are identified in the analysis. Further analysis of the ECMWF EPS shows that the ensemble mean has a higher level of skill than the control forecast, particularly for the intensity of the cyclones, 2 from day 3 of the forecast. There is a higher level of skill in the NH than the SH and the spread in the SH is correspondingly larger. The difference between the ensemble mean and spread is very small for the position of the cyclones, but the spread of the ensemble is smaller than the ensemble mean error for the intensity of the cyclones in both hemispheres. Results also show that the ECMWF control forecast has ½ to 1 day more skill than the perturbed members, for both the position and intensity of the cyclones, throughout the forecast.

Regulation of cell cycle and stress responses to hydrostatic pressure in fission yeast

We have investigated the cellular responses to hydrostatic pressure by using the fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe as a model system. Exposure to sublethal levels of hydrostatic pressure resulted in G2 cell cycle delay. This delay resulted from Cdc2 tyrosine-15 (Y-15) phosphorylation, and it was abrogated by simultaneous disruption of the Cdc2 kinase regulators Cdc25 and Wee1. However, cell cycle delay was independent of the DNA damage, cytokinesis, and cell size checkpoints, suggesting a novel mechanism of Cdc2-Y15 phosphorylation in response to hydrostatic pressure. Spc1/Sty1 mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase, a conserved member of the eukaryotic stress-activated p38, mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase family, was rapidly activated after pressure stress, and it was required for cell cycle recovery under these conditions, in part through promoting polo kinase (Plo1) phosphorylation on serine 402. Moreover, the Spc1 MAP kinase pathway played a key role in maintaining cell viability under hydrostatic pressure stress through the bZip transcription factor, Atf1. Further analysis revealed that prestressing cells with heat increased barotolerance, suggesting adaptational cross-talk between these stress responses. These findings provide new insight into eukaryotic homeostasis after exposure to pressure stress.

Easterly wave disturbances over Northeast Brazil: an observational analysis

This paper aims to identify the circulation associated with Easterly Wave Disturbances (EWDs) that propagate toward the Eastern Northeast Brazil (ENEB) and their impact on the rainfall over ENEB during 2006 and 2007 rainy seasons (April–July). The EWDs identification and trajectory are analyzed using an automatic tracking technique (TracKH). The EWDs circulation patterns and their main features were obtained using the composite technique. To evaluate the TracKH efficiency, a validation was done by comparing the EWDs number tracked against observed cases obtained from an observational analysis. The mean characteristics of EWDs are 5.5-day period, propagation speed of ~9.5 m·s−1, and a 4500 km wavelength. A synoptic analysis shows that between days −2 d and 0 d, the low level winds presented cyclonic relative vorticity and convergence anomalies both in 2006 and 2007. The EWDs signals are strongest at low levels. The EWDs propagation is associated with relative humidity and precipitation positive anomalies and OLR and omega negative anomalies. The EWDs tracks are seen over all ENEB and their lysis occurs between the ENEB and marginally inside the continent. The tracking captured 71% of EWDs in all periods, indicating that an objective analysis is a promising method for EWDs detection.

Multicamera trajectory analysis for semantic behaviour characterisation

In this paper we propose an innovative approach for behaviour recognition, from a multicamera environment, based on translating video activity into semantics. First, we fuse tracks from individual cameras through clustering employing soft computing techniques. Then, we introduce a higher-level module able to translate fused tracks into semantic information. With our proposed approach, we address the challenge set in PETS 2014 on recognising behaviours of interest around a parked vehicle, namely the abnormal behaviour of someone walking around the vehicle.

Rossby wave propagation tracks in southern hemisphere mean basic flows associated to generalized frosts over southern South America

Based on previous observational studies on cold extreme events over southern South America, some recent studies suggest a possible relationship between Rossby wave propagation remotely triggered and the occurrence of frost. Using the concept of linear theory of Rossby wave propagation, this paper analyzes the propagation of such waves in two different basic states that correspond to austral winters with maximum and minimum generalized frost frequency of occurrence in the Wet Pampa (central-northwest Argentina). In order to determine the wave trajectories, the ray tracing technique is used in this study. Some theoretical discussion about this technique is also presented. The analysis of the basic state, from a theoretical point of view and based on the calculation of ray tracings, corroborates that remotely excited Rossby waves is the mechanism that favors the maximum occurrence of generalized frosts. The basic state in which the waves propagate is what conditions the places where they are excited. The Rossby waves are excited in determined places of the atmosphere, propagating towards South America along the jet streams that act as wave guides, favoring the generation of generalized frosts. In summary, this paper presents an overview of the ray tracing technique and how it can be used to investigate an important synoptic event, such as frost in a specific region, and its relationship with the propagation of large scale planetary waves.

Fragment mass distributions in the fission of heavy nuclei by intermediate- and high-energy probes

Recent experiments have shown that the multimode approach for describing the fission process is compatible with the observed results. Asystematic analysis of the parameters obtained by fitting the fission-fragment mass distribution to the spontaneous and low-energy data has shown that the values for those parameters present a smooth dependence upon the nuclear mass number. In this work, a new methodology is introduced for studying fragment mass distributions through the multimode approach. It is shown that for fission induced by energetic probes (E > 30 MeV) the mass distribution of the fissioning nuclei produced during the intranuclear cascade and evaporation processes must be considered in order to have a realistic description of the fission process. The method is applied to study (208)Pb, (238)U, (239)Np and (241)Am fission induced by protons or photons.

Infrared analysis of ion beam irradiated polymers

Irradiation with heavy ions can produce several modifications in the chain structure of polymers. These modifications can be related to scissioning and cross-linking of chemical bonds. which depend on the ion fluence and the density of energy deposited in the material. Stacked thin film Makrofol-KG (R) samples were irradiated with 350 MeV Au(26+) ions and FTIR absorption spectroscopy was used to determine the bond changes in the samples. Data on the absorption bands as a function of the fluence indicated a higher probability for simple-bonds scissioning than for double-bonds scissioning and no dependence on the number of double bonds breaking with ion fluence. Since sample irradiation was done in a non-track-overlapping regime, a novel process for double bonds formation is suggested: the excitation of a site in the material by only one incident ion followed by a double bond formation during the de-excitation process. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non invasive methods for genetic analysis applied to ecological and behavioral studies in Latino-America

Documenting the presence and abundance of the neotropical mammals is the first step for understanding their population ecology, behavior and genetic dynamics in designing conservation plans. The combination of field research with molecular genetics techniques are new tools that provide valuable biological information avoiding the disturbance in the ecosystems, trying to minimize the human impact in the process to gather biological information. The objective of this paper is to review the available non invasive sampling techniques that have been used in Neotropical mammal studies to apply to determine the presence and abundance, population structure, sex ratio, taxonomic diagnostic using mitochondrial markers, and assessing genetic variability using nuclear markers. There are a wide range of non invasive sampling techniques used to determine the species identification that inhabit an area such as searching for tracks, feces, and carcasses. Other useful equipment is the camera traps that can generate an image bank that can be valuable to assess species presence and abundance by morphology. With recent advances in molecular biology, it is now possible to use the trace amounts of DNA in feces and amplify it to analyze the species diversity in an area, and the genetic variability at intraspecific level. This is particularly helpful in cases of sympatric and cryptic species in which morphology failed to diagnose the taxonomic status of several species of brocket deer of the genus Mazama.

Image processing algorithm for the identification of Martian dust devil tracks in MOC and HiRISE images

This paper presents a method for automatic identification of dust devils tracks in MOC NA and HiRISE images of Mars. The method is based on Mathematical Morphology and is able to successfully process those images despite their difference in spatial resolution or size of the scene. A dataset of 200 images from the surface of Mars representative of the diversity of those track features was considered for developing, testing and evaluating our method, confronting the outputs with reference images made manually. Analysis showed a mean accuracy of about 92%. We also give some examples on how to use the results to get information about dust devils, namelly mean width, main direction of movement and coverage per scene. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fission-track dating of Macusanite glasses with plateau and size correction methods

Two Macusanite pebbles (MB1 and MB2) were dated with the fission-track method. Six irradiations were carried out in different nuclear reactors: Pavia (Italy), IPEN-CNEN (Brazil) and IPEN-Lima (Peru). Measurements of the thorium and uranium induced-fission per target nucleus using natural thorium thin films and natural U-doped glasses calibrated against natural uranium thin films, together with lambda(F) of 8.46 x 10(-17) a(-1) were used to determine the ages. The apparent ages were corrected using the plateau and size correction methods. Track measurements were performed by different analysts, using different counting criteria. In addition, tracks were measured on samples which had been submitted to thermal treatment as well as on samples which had not been heated. Thermal treatments were carried out to erase the fossil tracks before neutron irradiation. No significant differences have been found in individual results, using the two Macusanite pebbles and the different nuclear reactors, age correction techniques, analysts, track-counting criteria, and thermal treatments before neutron irradiation. The great majority of the results (14/17) is compatible with the Ar-Ar ages of 5.12 +/- 0.11 and 5.10 +/- 0.11 Ma, Macusanite MB1 and MB2, respectively. However, the fission-track ages are systematically less (similar to8%) than the Ar-Ar ages of the two Macusanite samples studied. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

New constraints on ages of glasses proposed as reference materials for fission-track dating

New analyses have been performed in order to enhance the data-set on the independent ages of four glasses that have been proposed as reference materials for fission-track dating. The results are as follows. Moldavite - repeated (40)Ar/(39)Ar age determinations on samples from deposits from Bohemia and Moravia yielded an average of 14.34 +/- 0.08 Ma. This datum agrees with other recent determinations and is significantly younger than the (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of 15.21 +/- 0.15 Ma determined in the early 1980s. Macusanite (Peru) -four K-Ar ages ranging from 5.44 +/- 0.06 to 5.72 +/- 0.12 Ma have been published previously. New (40)Ar/(39)Ar ages gave an average of 5.12 +/- 0.04 Ma. Plateau fission-track ages determined using the IRMM-540 certified glass and U and Th thin films for neutron fluence measurements agree better with these new (40)Ar/(39)Ar ages than the previously published ages. Roccastrada glass (Italy) - a new (40)Ar/(39)Ar age, 2.45 +/- 0.04 Ma, is consistent with previous determinations. The Quiron obsidian (Argentina) is a recently discovered glass that has been proposed as an additional reference material for its high spontaneous track density (around 100 000 cm(-2)). Defects that might produce spurious tracks are virtually absent. An independent (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of 8.77 +/- 0.09 Ma was determined and is recommended for this glass. We believe that these materials, which will be distributed upon request to fission-track groups, will be very useful for testing system calibrations and experimental procedures.

Potentialities and practical limitations of absolute neutron dosimetry using thin films of uranium and thorium applied to the fission track dating

Neutron dosimetry using natural uranium and thorium thin films makes possible that mineral dating by the fission-track method can be accomplished, even when poor thermalized neutron facilities are employed. In this case, the contributions of the fissions of (235)U, (238)U and (232)Th induced by thermal, epithermal and fast neutrons to the population of tracks produced during irradiation are quantified through the combined use of natural uranium and thorium films.If the Th/U ratio of the sample is known, only one irradiation (where the sample and the films of uranium and thorium are present) is necessary to perform the dating. However, if that ratio is unknown, it can be determined through another irradiation where the mineral to be dated and both films are placed inside a cadmium box.Problems related with film manufacturing and calibration are discussed. Special attention is given to the utilization of thin films having very low uranium content. The problems faced suggest that it may be better to substitute these films by uranium doped standard glasses calibrated with thicker uranium films (thickness greater than 1.5 x 10(13) mu m).

Thermotectonic and fault dynamic analysis of Precambrian basement and tectonic constraints with the Parana basin

The Precambrian crystalline basement of southeast Brazil is affected by many Phanerozoic reactivations of shear zones that developed during the end of the Neoproterozoic in the Brasiliano orogeny. These reactivations with specific tectonic events, a multidisciplinary study was done, involving geology, paleostress, and structural analysis of faults, associated with apatite fission track methods along the northeastern border of the Parana basin in southeast Brazil.The results show that the study area consists of three main tectonic domains, which record different episodes of uplift and reactivation of faults. These faults were brittle in character and resulted in multiple generations of fault products as pseudotachylytes and ultracataclasites, foliated cataclasites and fault gouges.Based on geological evidence and fission track data, an uplift of basement rocks and related tectonic subsidence with consequent deposition in the Parana basin were modeled.The reactivations of the basement record successive uplift events during the Phanerozoic dated via corrected fission track ages, at 387 +/- 50 Ma (Ordovician); 193 +/- 19 Ma (Triassic); 142 +/- 18 Ma (Jurassic), 126 +/- 11 Ma (Early Cretaceous); 89 +/- 10 Ma (Late Cretaceous) and 69 +/- 10 Ma (Late Cretaceous). These results indicate differential uplift of tectonic domains of basement units, probably related to Parana basin subsidence. Six major sedimentary units (supersequences) that have been deposited with their bounding unconformities, seem to have a close relationship with the orogenic events during the evolution of southwestern Gondwana. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison between neutron-fluence measurements using metal-activation monitors and standard glasses calibrated via thin uranium-fission monitors and via ηq method

The two fundamental approaches to fission-track dating involve either an explicit determination of the thermal neutron fluence (φ-method) or a calibration against age standards (ζ-method). The neutron fluence measurements are carried out with metal-activation monitors or with uranium-fission monitors, co-irradiated with the samples. Uranium-fission monitors consist of either a thin mono-atomic) film, or a thick fission source (standard uranium glass) irradiated against a muscovite external track detector. In this work, different techniques for performing neutron-fluence measurements were compared: based on thin-film calibration, based on thick-source calibration, and based on gamma spectrometry of co-irradiated metal monitors (Au, Co). The results suggest that more experiments are needed to make all calibrations consistent, including new measurements of the length of etched induced tracks in mica. Also the standard glass calibration carried out with thin films should be confirmed with a greater number of calibrating irradiations. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin in southern Brazil derived from zircon and apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission-track data

The area between São Paulo and Porto Alegre in southeastern Brazil plays a key area to understand and quantify the evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin (SAPCM) in Brazil. In this contribution, we present new thermochronological data attained by fission-track and (U-Th-Sm)/He analysis on apatites and zircons from metamorphic, sedimentary and intrusive rocks. The zircon fission-track ages range between 108.4 (15.0) and 539.9 (68.4). Ma, the zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He ages between 72.9 (5.8) and 525.1(2.4). Ma, whereas the apatite fission-track ages range between 40.0 (5.3) and 134.7 (8.0). Ma, and the apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He ages between 32.1 (1.5) and 93.0 (2.5). Ma. The spatial distribution of these ages shows three distinct blocks with a different evolution cut by old fracture zones. While the central block exhibits an old stable block, the Northern and especially the Southern block underwent complex post-rift exhumation. The sample of the Northern block shows two distinct cooling phases in the Upper Cretaceous and the Paleogene to Neogene. After sedimentation of the Permian sandstones the samples of the Central block were never heated up over 100. °C with a following moderate to fast cooling phase in Cretaceous to Eocene time and a fast cooling between Oligocene to Miocene. The five thermal models obtained in the Southern block indicate a complex evolution with three cooling phases. The exhumation events of the three blocks correspond with the Paraná-Etendekka event, the alkaline intrusions due to the Trinidad hotspot, and the evolution of the continental rift basins in SE Brazil and are, therefore, most likely to be the major force for the post-rift evolution of the passive continental margin in SE Brazil, which therefore corresponds to the three main phases of the Andean orogeny. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.