Prospect theory, diversificação ingênua e propensão a risco de especialistas em mercado: evidência empírica no Brasil

The Prospect Theory is one of the basis of Behavioral Finance and models the investor behavior in a different way than von Neumann and Morgenstern Utility Theory. Behavioral characteristics are evaluated for different control groups, validating the violation of Utility Theory Axioms. Naïve Diversification is also verified, utilizing the 1/n heuristic strategy for investment funds allocations. This strategy causes different fixed and equity allocations, compared to the desirable exposure, given the exposure of the subsample that answered a non constrained allocation question. When compared to non specialists, specialists in finance are less risk averse and allocate more of their wealth on equity.

Três ensaios sobre política monetária e crédito

In the first essay, "Determinants of Credit Expansion in Brazil", analyzes the determinants of credit using an extensive bank level panel dataset. Brazilian economy has experienced a major boost in leverage in the first decade of 2000 as a result of a set factors ranging from macroeconomic stability to the abundant liquidity in international financial markets before 2008 and a set of deliberate decisions taken by President Lula's to expand credit, boost consumption and gain political support from the lower social strata. As relevant conclusions to our investigation we verify that: credit expansion relied on the reduction of the monetary policy rate, international financial markets are an important source of funds, payroll-guaranteed credit and investment grade status affected positively credit supply. We were not able to confirm the importance of financial inclusion efforts. The importance of financial sector sanity indicators of credit conditions cannot be underestimated. These results raise questions over the sustainability of this expansion process and financial stability in the future. The second essay, “Public Credit, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”, discusses the role of public credit. The supply of public credit in Brazil has successfully served to relaunch the economy after the Lehman-Brothers demise. It was later transformed into a driver for economic growth as well as a regulation device to force private banks to reduce interest rates. We argue that the use of public funds to finance economic growth has three important drawbacks: it generates inflation, induces higher loan rates and may induce financial instability. An additional effect is the prevention of market credit solutions. This study contributes to the understanding of the costs and benefits of credit as a fiscal policy tool. The third essay, “Bayesian Forecasting of Interest Rates: Do Priors Matter?”, discusses the choice of priors when forecasting short-term interest rates. Central Banks that commit to an Inflation Target monetary regime are bound to respond to inflation expectation spikes and product hiatus widening in a clear and transparent way by abiding to a Taylor rule. There are various reports of central banks being more responsive to inflationary than to deflationary shocks rendering the monetary policy response to be indeed non-linear. Besides that there is no guarantee that coefficients remain stable during time. Central Banks may switch to a dual target regime to consider deviations from inflation and the output gap. The estimation of a Taylor rule may therefore have to consider a non-linear model with time varying parameters. This paper uses Bayesian forecasting methods to predict short-term interest rates. We take two different approaches: from a theoretic perspective we focus on an augmented version of the Taylor rule and include the Real Exchange Rate, the Credit-to-GDP and the Net Public Debt-to-GDP ratios. We also take an ”atheoretic” approach based on the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure to model short-term interest. The selection of priors is particularly relevant for predictive accuracy yet, ideally, forecasting models should require as little a priori expert insight as possible. We present recent developments in prior selection, in particular we propose the use of hierarchical hyper-g priors for better forecasting in a framework that can be easily extended to other key macroeconomic indicators.

Tributação, finanças públicas e política fiscal: uma análise sob a óptica do direito e economia

In the Brazilian legal scenario, the study of taxation has traditionally been restricted to positivist analysis, concerned with investigating the formal aspects of the tax legal rule. Despite its relevance to the formation of the national doctrine of tax, such formalist tradition limits the discipline, separating it from reality and the socioeconomic context in which the Tax Law is inserted. Thus, the proposal of the dissertation is to examine the fundamentals and nature of taxation and tax legal rules from the perspective of Law and Economics (Economic Analysis of Law). For this purpose, the work initially reconnects the Tax Law and Science of Finance (or Public Finance) and Fiscal Policy, undertaking not only a legal analysis, but also economic and financial analysis of the theme. The Economics of Public Sector (or Modern Public Finance) will contribute to the research through topics such as market failures and economic theory of taxation, which are essential to an economic approach to Tax Law. The core of the work lies in the application of Law and Economics instruments in the study of taxation, analyzing the effects of tax rules on the economic system. Accordingly, the dissertation examines the fundamental assumptions that make up the Economic Analysis of Law (as the concept of economic efficiency and its relation to equity), relating them to the tax phenomenon. Due to the nature of the Brazilian legal system, any worth investigation or approach, including Law and Economics, could not pass off the Constitution. Thus, the constitutional rules will serve as a limit and a prerequisite for the application of Law and Economics on taxation, particularly the rules related to property rights, freedom, equality and legal certainty. The relationship between taxation and market failures receives prominent role, particularly due to its importance to the Law and Economics, as well as to the role that taxation plays in the correction of these failures. In addition to performing a review of taxation under the approach of Economic Analysis of Law, the research also investigates the reality of Brazilian tax system, applying the concepts developed in relevant cases and issues to the national scene, such as the relationship between taxation and development, the compliance costs of taxation, the tax evasion and the tax enforcement procedure. Given the above, it is intended to lay the groundwork for a general theory of Economic Analysis of Tax Law, contextualizing it with the Brazilian tax system

Towards a theory of the small firm: theoretical aspects and some policy implications

Includes bibliography

Investment theory and empirical approach: a discussion on dificulties

In this paper, we analyse several contributions made concerning investment theory in the last decades. The objective of the paper is to discuss the difficulties of the testable theory identified by Chirinko (1983), Fazzari et al. (1988, 2000), Kaplan and Zingales (1997) and Hubbard (1998) to better understand the results of empirical approach. These few authors we worked with provided theoretical arguments and empirical evidences that internal finance variable of the firms may work as an indicator of financial constraint. In several developed countries, financing constraints has been identified as important to understand the investment spending. The principal indicator of financing constraints, that is, cash-flow has been questioned. However, the evidences offer a support to its relevance. We try to justify such evidence based on the few authors listed above, which have been quoted by empirical works. We try to contribute to debate adding aspect of the corporate finance to offer a logical explanation to econometric difficulties.

The Effectiveness of the Clean Development Mechanism – A law and economics analysis

Climate change has been acknowledged as a threat to humanity. Most scholars agree that to avert dangerous climate change and to transform economies into low-carbon societies, deep global emission reductions are required by the year 2050. Under the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the only market-based instrument that encourages industrialised countries to pursue emission reductions in developing countries. The CDM aims to pay the incremental finance necessary to operationalize emission reduction projects which are otherwise not financially viable. According to the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM should finance projects that are additional to those which would have happened anyway, contribute to sustainable development in the countries hosting the projects, and be cost-effective. To enable the identification of such projects, an institutional framework has been established by the Kyoto Protocol which lays out responsibilities for public and private actors. This thesis examines whether the CDM has achieved these objectives in practice and can thus be considered an effective tool to reduce emissions. To complete this investigation, the book applies economic theory and analyses the CDM from two perspectives. The first perspective is the supply-dimension which answers the question of how, in practice, the CDM system identified additional, cost-effective, sustainable projects and, generated emission reductions. The main contribution of this book is the second perspective, the compliance-dimension, which answers the question of whether industrialised countries effectively used the CDM for compliance with their Kyoto targets. The application of the CDM in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is used as a case-study. Where the analysis identifies inefficiencies within the supply or the compliance dimension, potential improvements of the legal framework are proposed and discussed.

A model of factors determining levels of public support for health care policy in the United States

Public preferences for policy are formed in a little-understood process that is not adequately described by traditional economic theory of choice. In this paper I suggest that U.S. aggregate support for health reform can be modeled as tradeoffs among a small number of behavioral values and the stage of policy development. The theory underlying the model is based on Samuelson, et al.'s (1986) work and Wilke's (1991) elaboration of it as the Greed/Efficiency/Fairness (GEF) hypothesis of motivation in the management of resource dilemmas, and behavioral economics informed by Kahneman and Thaler's prospect theory. ^ The model developed in this paper employs ordered probit econometric techniques applied to data derived from U.S. polls taken from 1990 to mid-2003 that measured support for health reform proposals. Outcome data are four-tiered Likert counts; independent variables are dummies representing the presence or absence of operationalizations of each behavioral variable, along with an integer representing policy process stage. Marginal effects of each independent variable predict how support levels change on triggering that variable. Model estimation results indicate a vanishingly small likelihood that all coefficients are zero and all variables have signs expected from model theory. ^ Three hypotheses were tested: support will drain from health reform policy as it becomes increasingly well-articulated and approaches enactment; reforms appealing to fairness through universal health coverage will enjoy a higher degree of support than those targeted more narrowly; health reforms calling for government operation of the health finance system will achieve lower support than those that do not. Model results support the first and last hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, universal health care proposals did not provide incremental support beyond those targeted to “deserving” populations—children, elderly, working families. In addition, loss of autonomy (e.g. restrictions on choice of care giver) is found to be the “third rail” of health reform with significantly-reduced support. When applied to a hypothetical health reform in which an employer-mandated Medical Savings Account policy is the centerpiece, the model predicts support that may be insufficient to enactment. These results indicate that the method developed in the paper may prove valuable to health policy designers. ^

UMA ANÁLISE DA RELAÇÃO ENTRE VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS E O COMPORTAMENTO DAS AÇÕES DE MAIOR LIQUIDEZ DO ÍNDICE IBOVESPA

As ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, refletem o comportamento das ações de um modo geral, bem como a relação das variáveis macroeconômicas em seu comportamento e estão entre as mais negociadas no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Desta forma, pode-se entender que há reflexos de fatores que impactam as empresas de maior liquidez que definem o comportamento das variáveis macroeconômicas e que o inverso também é uma verdade, oscilações nos fatores macroeconômicos também afetam as ações de maior liquidez, como IPCA, PIB, SELIC e Taxa de Câmbio. O estudo propõe uma análise da relação existente entre variáveis macroeconômicas e o comportamento das ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, corroborando com estudos que buscam entender a influência de fatores macroeconômicos sobre o preço de ações e contribuindo empiricamente com a formação de portfólios de investimento. O trabalho abrangeu o período de 2008 a 2014. Os resultados concluíram que a formação de carteiras, visando a proteção do capital investido, deve conter ativos com correlação negativa em relação às variáveis estudadas, o que torna possível a composição de uma carteira com risco reduzido.

English Language Skills and Socioeconomic Segregation of UK Immigrants

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Education, Health and Fertility of UK Immigrants : The Role of English Language Skills

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O SNRC e os novos instrumentos de financiamento do agronegócio: o mercado de crédito rural brasileiro entre dois modelos

Esta pesquisa mostra como o desenvolvimento do sistema jurídico institucional do mercado de crédito rural no Brasil se desenvolveu a ponto de permitir a convivência de dois modelos normalmente considerados antitéticos: o modelo de economia de mercado coordenado via bancos públicos e o modelo de economia de mercado liberal. O primeiro capítulo da dissertação reconstrói como a teoria do Law and Finance que permite identificar adequadamente esse resultado de pesquisa se desenvolve a partir da crise das postulações e premissas da teoria econômica neoclássica. O segundo capítulo narra o desenvolvimento e crise do modelo do Sistema Nacional de Crédito Rural entre as décadas de 1960 e 1980, partindo de uma análise sobre sua estrutura, regulação e institutos. Passando dos modelos de organização financeira para as modalidades de crédito rural, o capítulo narra a lógica, estrutura e evolução do modelo calcado na alocação de recursos por banco públicos, de modo que essa elucidação de contexto histórico permite que se verifique a grande ruptura que é introduzida no sistema de financiamento rural a partir dos anos 2000. O terceiro capítulo narra e descreve o surgimento da estrutura, regulação e institutos regidos pela lógica de mercado liberal, até então ausente no SNCR para, após, realizar uma apreciação do resultado alcançado. Ao final, a conclusão reúne os principais achados dessa pesquisa, destaca os principais pontos de sua narrativa e os problematiza para uma agenda de pesquisa futura.

The true theory of rent in opposition to Mr. Ricardo and others : being an exposition of fallacies on rent, tithes, &c., in the form of a review of Mr. Mill's Elements of political economy /

Preface signed: T. Perronet Thompson.

The Statist; a journal of practical finance and trade ...

Subtitle varies.