A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Niño’ in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena.

A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Niño’ in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena.

Climate driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem

Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.

Climate driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem

Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.

The structure of biogenic habitat and epibiotic assemblages associated with the global invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida in comparison to native macroalgae

Kelp forests dominate temperate and polar rocky coastlines and represent critical marine habitats because they support elevated rates of primary and secondary production and high biodiversity. A major threat to the stability of these ecosystems is the proliferation of non-native species, such as the Japanese kelp Undariapinnatifida (‘Wakame’), which has recently colonised natural habitats in the UK. We quantified the abundance and biomass of U. pinnatifida on a natural rocky reef habitat over 10 months to make comparisons with three native canopy-forming brown algae (Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima, and Saccorhiza polyschides). We also examined the biogenic habitat structure provided by, and epibiotic assemblages associated with, U. pinnatifida in comparison to native macroalgae. Surveys conducted within the Plymouth Sound Special Area of Conservation indicated that U. pinnatifida is now a dominant and conspicuous member of kelp-dominated communities on natural substrata. Crucially, U. pinnatifida supported a structurally dissimilar and less diverse epibiotic assemblage than the native perennial kelp species. However, U. pinnatifida-associated assemblages were similar to those associated with Saccorhiza polyschides, which has a similar life history and growth strategy. Our results suggest that a shift towards U. pinnatifida dominated reefs could result in impoverished epibiotic assemblages and lower local biodiversity, although this could be offset, to some extent, by the climate-driven proliferation of L. ochroleuca at the poleward range edge, which provides complex biogenic habitat and harbours relatively high biodiversity. Clearly, greater understanding of the long-term dynamics and competitive interactions between these habitat-forming species is needed to accurately predict future biodiversity patterns.

The structure of biogenic habitat and epibiotic assemblages associated with the global invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida in comparison to native macroalgae

Kelp forests dominate temperate and polar rocky coastlines and represent critical marine habitats because they support elevated rates of primary and secondary production and high biodiversity. A major threat to the stability of these ecosystems is the proliferation of non-native species, such as the Japanese kelp Undariapinnatifida (‘Wakame’), which has recently colonised natural habitats in the UK. We quantified the abundance and biomass of U. pinnatifida on a natural rocky reef habitat over 10 months to make comparisons with three native canopy-forming brown algae (Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima, and Saccorhiza polyschides). We also examined the biogenic habitat structure provided by, and epibiotic assemblages associated with, U. pinnatifida in comparison to native macroalgae. Surveys conducted within the Plymouth Sound Special Area of Conservation indicated that U. pinnatifida is now a dominant and conspicuous member of kelp-dominated communities on natural substrata. Crucially, U. pinnatifida supported a structurally dissimilar and less diverse epibiotic assemblage than the native perennial kelp species. However, U. pinnatifida-associated assemblages were similar to those associated with Saccorhiza polyschides, which has a similar life history and growth strategy. Our results suggest that a shift towards U. pinnatifida dominated reefs could result in impoverished epibiotic assemblages and lower local biodiversity, although this could be offset, to some extent, by the climate-driven proliferation of L. ochroleuca at the poleward range edge, which provides complex biogenic habitat and harbours relatively high biodiversity. Clearly, greater understanding of the long-term dynamics and competitive interactions between these habitat-forming species is needed to accurately predict future biodiversity patterns.

Climate-driven shifts in species' distributions may exacerbate the impacts of storm disturbances on North-east Atlantic kelp forests

Physical disturbance through wave action is a major determinant of kelp forest structure. The North-east Atlantic storm season of 2013–14 was unusually severe; the south coast of the UK was subjected to 6 of the 12 most intense storms recorded in the past 5 years. Inshore significant wave heights and periods exceeded 7 m and 13 s with two storms classified as ‘1-in-30 year’ events. We examined the impacts of the storm season on kelp canopies at three study sites. Monospecific canopies comprising Laminaria hyperborea were unaffected by storm disturbance. However, at one study site a mixed canopy comprising Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima and L. hyperborea was significantly altered by the storms, due to decreased abundances of the former two species. Quantification of freshly severed stipes suggested that the ‘warm water’ kelp L. ochroleuca was more susceptible to storm damage than L. hyperborea. Overall, kelp canopies were highly resistant to storm disturbance because of the low vulnerability of L. hyperborea to intense wave action. However, if climate-driven shifts in kelp species distributions result in more mixed canopies, as predicted, then resistance to storm disturbance may be eroded.

Climate-driven shifts in species' distributions may exacerbate the impacts of storm disturbances on North-east Atlantic kelp forests

Physical disturbance through wave action is a major determinant of kelp forest structure. The North-east Atlantic storm season of 2013–14 was unusually severe; the south coast of the UK was subjected to 6 of the 12 most intense storms recorded in the past 5 years. Inshore significant wave heights and periods exceeded 7 m and 13 s with two storms classified as ‘1-in-30 year’ events. We examined the impacts of the storm season on kelp canopies at three study sites. Monospecific canopies comprising Laminaria hyperborea were unaffected by storm disturbance. However, at one study site a mixed canopy comprising Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima and L. hyperborea was significantly altered by the storms, due to decreased abundances of the former two species. Quantification of freshly severed stipes suggested that the ‘warm water’ kelp L. ochroleuca was more susceptible to storm damage than L. hyperborea. Overall, kelp canopies were highly resistant to storm disturbance because of the low vulnerability of L. hyperborea to intense wave action. However, if climate-driven shifts in kelp species distributions result in more mixed canopies, as predicted, then resistance to storm disturbance may be eroded.

Linking environmental variables with regional- scale variability in ecological structure and standing stock of carbon within UK kelp forests

Kelp forests represent some of the most productive and diverse habitats on Earth. Understanding drivers of ecological patterns at large spatial scales is critical for effective management and conservation of marine habitats. We surveyed kelp forests dominated by Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie 1884 across 9° latitude and >1000 km of coastline and measured a number of physical parameters at multiple scales to link ecological structure and standing stock of carbon with environmental variables. Kelp density, biomass, morphology and age were generally greater in exposed sites within regions, highlighting the importance of wave exposure in structuring L. hyperborea populations. At the regional scale, wave-exposed kelp canopies in the cooler regions (the north and west of Scotland) were greater in biomass, height and age than in warmer regions (southwest Wales and England). The range and maximal values of estimated standing stock of carbon contained within kelp forests was greater than in historical studies, suggesting that this ecosystem property may have been previously undervalued. Kelp canopy density was positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and fine-scale water motion, whereas kelp canopy biomass and the standing stock of carbon were positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and light levels and negatively correlated with temperature. As light availability and summer temperature were important drivers of kelp forest biomass, effective management of human activities that may affect coastal water quality is necessary to maintain ecosystem functioning, while increased temperatures related to anthropogenic climate change may impact the structure of kelp forests and the ecosystem services they provide.

Linking environmental variables with regional- scale variability in ecological structure and standing stock of carbon within UK kelp forests

Kelp forests represent some of the most productive and diverse habitats on Earth. Understanding drivers of ecological patterns at large spatial scales is critical for effective management and conservation of marine habitats. We surveyed kelp forests dominated by Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie 1884 across 9° latitude and >1000 km of coastline and measured a number of physical parameters at multiple scales to link ecological structure and standing stock of carbon with environmental variables. Kelp density, biomass, morphology and age were generally greater in exposed sites within regions, highlighting the importance of wave exposure in structuring L. hyperborea populations. At the regional scale, wave-exposed kelp canopies in the cooler regions (the north and west of Scotland) were greater in biomass, height and age than in warmer regions (southwest Wales and England). The range and maximal values of estimated standing stock of carbon contained within kelp forests was greater than in historical studies, suggesting that this ecosystem property may have been previously undervalued. Kelp canopy density was positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and fine-scale water motion, whereas kelp canopy biomass and the standing stock of carbon were positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and light levels and negatively correlated with temperature. As light availability and summer temperature were important drivers of kelp forest biomass, effective management of human activities that may affect coastal water quality is necessary to maintain ecosystem functioning, while increased temperatures related to anthropogenic climate change may impact the structure of kelp forests and the ecosystem services they provide.

Asociación entre la escala de riesgo Framingham y el puntaje de calcio coronario

Introducción: Entre las diferentes herramientas clínicas para evaluar la presencia de enfermedad coronaria mediante puntajes, la más usada es la Escala de Riesgo cardiovascular de Framingham. Desde hace unos años, se creó el puntaje de calcio coronario el cual mide el riesgo cardiovascular según la presencia de placas ateromatosas vistas por tomografía computarizada. Se evaluó la asociación entre la escala de Framigham y el puntaje de calcio coronario en una población de sujetos sanos asintomáticos. Metodología: Se realizó un estudio transversal para evaluar la asociación entre el puntaje de calcio coronario y la escala de Framingham en sujetos asintomáticos que se practicaron exámen médico preventivo en la Fundación Cardioinfantil- Instituto de Cardiología (FCI-IC) en el periodo comprendido entre 1 de Julio 2011 hasta el 31 de octubre de 2015. Resultados: Se evaluaron 262 pacientes en total. La prevalencia de riesgo cardiovascular fue bajo en un 77.86% de la población, medio en 18.70% y alto en 3.44%, según la escala de Framingham. El riesgo cardiovascular según el puntaje de Calcio coronario fue nulo 70.99%, bajo en 21.75%, medio en 4.19%, severo en 3.05%. Se encontró una asociación entre ambos puntajes para riesgo estadísticamente significativa (p0,00001) Discusión: El riesgo cardiovascular establecido por escala de Framingham se relaciona de forma significativa con la presencia de placas aterioscleróticas. El estudio demostró que en una muestra de sujetos asintomáticos, hay una alteración estructural coronaria temprana.