The PsyCoLaus study: methodology and characteristics of the sample of a population-based survey on psychiatric disorders and their association with genetic and cardiovascular risk factors.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The Psychiatric arm of the population-based CoLaus study (PsyCoLaus) is designed to: 1) establish the prevalence of threshold and subthreshold psychiatric syndromes in the 35 to 66 year-old population of the city of Lausanne (Switzerland); 2) test the validity of postulated definitions for subthreshold mood and anxiety syndromes; 3) determine the associations between psychiatric disorders, personality traits and cardiovascular diseases (CVD), 4) identify genetic variants that can modify the risk for psychiatric disorders and determine whether genetic risk factors are shared between psychiatric disorders and CVD. This paper presents the method as well as somatic and sociodemographic characteristics of the sample. METHODS: All 35 to 66 year-old persons previously selected for the population-based CoLaus survey on risk factors for CVD were asked to participate in a substudy assessing psychiatric conditions. This investigation included the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies to elicit diagnostic criteria for threshold disorders according to DSM-IV and algorithmically defined subthreshold syndromes. Complementary information was gathered on potential risk and protective factors for psychiatric disorders, migraine and on the morbidity of first-degree family members, whereas the collection of DNA and plasma samples was part of the original somatic study (CoLaus). RESULTS: A total of 3,691 individuals completed the psychiatric evaluation (67% participation). The gender distribution of the sample did not differ significantly from that of the general population in the same age range. Although the youngest 5-year band of the cohort was underrepresented and the oldest 5-year band overrepresented, participants of PsyCoLaus and individuals who refused to participate revealed comparable scores on the General Health Questionnaire, a self-rating instrument completed at the somatic exam. CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations resulting from the relatively low participation in the context of a comprehensive and time-consuming investigation, the PsyCoLaus study should significantly contribute to the current understanding of psychiatric disorders and comorbid somatic conditions by: 1) establishing the clinical relevance of specific psychiatric syndromes below the DSM-IV threshold; 2) determining comorbidity between risk factors for CVD and psychiatric disorders; 3) assessing genetic variants associated with common psychiatric disorders and 4) identifying DNA markers shared between CVD and psychiatric disorders.

A methodology to estimate the potential to move inpatient to one day surgery.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of surgery performed as a day case varies greatly between countries. Low rates suggest a large growth potential in many countries. Measuring the potential development of one day surgery should be grounded on a comprehensive list of eligible procedures, based on a priori criteria, independent of local practices. We propose an algorithmic method, using only routinely available hospital data to identify surgical hospitalizations that could have been performed as one day treatment. METHODS: Moving inpatient surgery to one day surgery was considered feasible if at least one surgical intervention was eligible for one day surgery and if none of the following criteria were present: intervention or affection requiring an inpatient stay, patient transferred or died, and length of stay greater than four days. The eligibility of a procedure to be treated as a day case was mainly established on three a priori criteria: surgical access (endoscopic or not), the invasiveness of the procedure and the size of the operated organ. Few overrides of these criteria occurred when procedures were associated with risk of immediate complications, slow physiological recovery or pain treatment requiring hospital infrastructure. The algorithm was applied to a random sample of one million inpatient US stays and more than 600 thousand Swiss inpatient stays, in the year 2002. RESULTS: The validity of our method was demonstrated by the few discrepancies between the a priori criteria based list of eligible procedures, and a state list used for reimbursement purposes, the low proportion of hospitalizations eligible for one day care found in the US sample (4.9 versus 19.4% in the Swiss sample), and the distribution of the elective procedures found eligible in Swiss hospitals, well supported by the literature. There were large variations of the proportion of candidates for one day surgery among elective surgical hospitalizations between Swiss hospitals (3 to 45.3%). CONCLUSION: The proposed approach allows the monitoring of the proportion of inpatient stay candidates for one day surgery. It could be used for infrastructure planning, resources negotiation and the surveillance of appropriate resource utilization.

Telementoring during endovascular treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysms: a prospective study.

PURPOSE: To explore the use of telementoring for distant teaching and training in endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). METHODS: According to a prospectively designed study protocol, 48 patients underwent EVAR: the first 12 patients (group A) were treated at a secondary care center by an experienced interventionist, who was training the local team; a further 12 patients (group B) were operated by the local team at their secondary center with telementoring by the experienced operator from an adjacent suite; and the last 24 patients (group C) were operated by the local team with remote telementoring support from the experienced interventionist at a tertiary care center. Telementoring was performed using 3 video sources; images were transmitted using 4 ISDN lines. EVAR was performed using intravascular ultrasound and simultaneous fluoroscopy to obtain road mapping of the abdominal aorta and its branches, as well as for identifying the origins of the renal arteries, assessing the aortic neck, and monitoring the attachment of the stent-graft proximally and distally. RESULTS: Average duration of telementoring was 2.1 hours during the first 12 patients (group B) and 1.2 hours for the remaining 24 patients (group C). There was no difference in procedural duration (127+/-59 minutes in group A, 120+/-4 minutes in group B, and 119+/-39 minutes in group C; p=0.94) or the mean time spent in the ICU (26+/-15 hours in group A, 22+/-2 hours in group B, and 22+/-11 hours for group C; p=0.95). The length of hospital stay (11+/-4 days in group A, 9+/-4 days in group B, and 7+/-1 days in group C; p=0.002) was significantly different only for group C versus A (p=0.002). Only 1 (8.3%) patient (in group A: EVAR performed by the experienced operator) required conversion to open surgery because of iliac artery rupture. This was the only conversion (and the only death) in the entire study group (1/12 in group A versus 0/36 in groups B + C, p=0.31). CONCLUSIONS: Telementoring for EVAR is feasible and shows promising results. It may serve as a model for development of similar projects for teaching other invasive procedures in cardiovascular medicine.

Kaasukäyttöisen jäteauton toiminnan tutkiminen ja soveltuvuuden selvittäminen pääkaupunkiseudun jätteenkuljetuksiin

Kaasunkäyttö liikennepolttoaineena on Suomessa vielä melko vähäistä. Maa- ja biokaasun käyttöä pyritään kuitenkin lisäämään, sillä EU:n jäsenvaltioiden tulee korvatavuoteen 2010 mennessä 5,75 % nykyisistä liikenteen polttoaineista biopolttoaineilla ja vuoteen 2020 mennessä jopa 20 %:a. Tässä työssä tutkittiin kaasukäyttöisen (CNG) jäteauton vahvuuksia ja heikkouksia dieseljäteautoon verrattuna. Ensimmäinen CNG-jäteauto aloitti liikennöinnin Pääkaupunkiseudun yhteistyövaltuuskunnan alueella joulukuussa 2005. Kaasujäteautolle suoritettujen melu- ja pakokaasupäästömittausten perusteella selvisi, että CNG-jäteauto on ympäristön kannalta dieseljäteautoa puhtaampi vaihtoehto. Kaasujäteautolla on myös yrityksen imagoon positiivinen vaikutus. Jäteautojen kustannuslaskelmat osoittivat, että kaasujäteauto tulee kokonaiskustannuksiltaan kalliimmaksi kuin dieseljäteauto. Ainoastaan CNG-jäteauton polttoainekustannukset ovat toistaiseksi edullisemmat kuin dieseljäteauton. Kaasujäteautokannan lisääntyminen edellyttää kaasun liikennepolttoainekäytön tukemista esimerkiksi antamalla lisäpisteitä urakkatarjouskilpailuissa. Tällöin eri polttoainevaihtoehtojen välillesyntyy kilpailua, millä voi tulevaisuudessa olla vaikutusta CNG-jäteauton kokonaiskustannusten alenemiseen ja kaasun käytön lisäämiseen taloudellisesti kannattavasti. Myös edistämällä biokaasun hyötykäyttöä liikennepolttoaineena saavutetaan maakaasua paremmat ympäristöhyödyt ja saadaan kaatopaikoilla muodostuva metaani talteen. Biokaasu on hiilidioksidineutraali polttoaine, joten sen poltosta ei synny kasvihuonekaasupäästöjä.

Neuromotor development in children. Part 3: motor performance in 3- to 5-year-olds.

AIM: The aim of this cross-sectional study was to provide normative data (ordinal scores and timed performances) for gross and fine motor tasks in typically developing children between 3 and 5 years of age using the Zurich Neuromotor Assessment (ZNA). METHOD: Typically developing children (n=101; 48 males, 53 females) between 3 and 5 years of age were enrolled from day-care centres in the greater Zurich area and tested using a modified version of the ZNA; the tests were recorded digitally on video. Intraobserver reliability was assessed on the videos of 20 children by one examiner. Interobserver reliability was assessed by two examiners. Test-retest reliability was performed on an additional 20 children. The modelling approach summarized the data with a linear age effect and an additive term for sex, while incorporating informative missing data in the normative values. Normative data for adaptive motor tasks, pure motor tasks, and static and dynamic balance were calculated with centile curves (for timed performance) and expected ordinal scores (for ordinal scales). RESULTS: Interobserver, intraobserver, and test-retest reliability of tasks were moderate to good. Nearly all tasks showed significant age effects, whereas sex was significant only for stringing beads and hopping on one leg. INTERPRETATION: These results indicate that timed performance and ordinal scales of neuromotor tasks can be reliably measured in preschool children and are characterized by developmental change and high interindividual variability.

Evaluation of a novel biomaterial in the suprachoroidal space of the rabbit eye.

PURPOSE: Drug delivery to treat diseases of the posterior segment of the eye, such as choroidal neovascularization and its complications, is hampered by poor intraocular penetration and rapid elimination of the drug from the eye. The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility and tolerance of suprachoroidal injections of poly(ortho ester) (POE), a bioerodible and biocompatible polymer, as a biomaterial potentially useful for development of sustained drug delivery systems. METHODS: After tunnelization of the sclera, different formulations based on POE were injected (100 microL) into the suprachoroidal space of pigmented rabbits and compared with 1% sodium hyaluronate. Follow-up consisted of fundus observations, echography, fluorescein angiography, and histologic analysis over 3 weeks. RESULTS: After injection, POE spread in the suprachoroidal space at the posterior pole. It was well tolerated and progressively disappeared from the site of injection without sequelae. No bleeding or retinal detachment occurred. Echographic pictures showed that the material was present in the suprachoroidal space for 3 weeks. Angiography revealed minor pigment irregularities at the site of injection, but no retinal edema or necrosis. Histology showed that POE was well tolerated in the choroid. CONCLUSIONS: POE suprachoroidal injections, an easy, controllable, and reproducible procedure, were well tolerated in the rabbit eye. POE appears to be a promising biomaterial to deliver drugs focally to the choroid and the retina.

Can smartphones and tablets improve the management of childhood illness in Tanzania? A qualitative study from a primary health care worker's perspective.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) strategy has been less than anticipated because of poor uptake. Electronic algorithms have the potential to improve quality of health care in children. However, feasibility studies about the use of electronic protocols on mobile devices over time are limited. This study investigated constraining as well as facilitating factors that influence the uptake of a new electronic Algorithm for Management of Childhood Illness (ALMANACH) among primary health workers in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: A qualitative approach was applied using in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with altogether 40 primary health care workers from 6 public primary health facilities in the three municipalities of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Health worker's perceptions related to factors facilitating or constraining the uptake of the electronic ALMANACH were identified. RESULTS: In general, the ALMANACH was assessed positively. The majority of the respondents felt comfortable to use the devices and stated that patient's trust was not affected. Most health workers said that the ALMANACH simplified their work, reduced antibiotic prescription and gave correct classification and treatment for common causes of childhood illnesses. Few HWs reported technical challenges using the devices and complained about having had difficulties in typing. Majority of the respondents stated that the devices increased the consultation duration compared to routine practice. In addition, health system barriers such as lack of staff, lack of medicine and lack of financial motivation were identified as key reasons for the low uptake of the devices. CONCLUSIONS: The ALMANACH built on electronic devices was perceived to be a powerful and useful tool. However, health system challenges influenced the uptake of the devices in the selected health facilities.

Postmortem measurement of human chorionic gonadotropin in vitreous humor and bile.

Postmortem human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) blood assay can confirm postmortem diagnosis of pregnancy or document situations in which HCG levels are elevated. In some cases, however, blood sampling is not possible at autopsy. In this study, HCG was quantified by enzyme-linked fluorescent assay (ELFA) in the bile (n = 5), vitreous humor (n = 4), and postmortem blood (n = 4) of five pregnant women. There were no false negatives in the pregnant subjects (n = 5) or false positives in controls (n = 34), enabling this test to be recommended for routine use in forensic contexts in which the detection of elevated HCG levels could be of interest.

Completion and Publication Rates of Randomized Controlled Trials in Surgery: An Empirical Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical versus medical randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and to explore risk factors for discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical RCTs. BACKGROUND: Trial discontinuation has significant scientific, ethical, and economic implications. To date, the prevalence of discontinuation of surgical RCTs is unknown. METHODS: All RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by 6 ethics committees in Canada, Germany, and Switzerland were screened. Baseline characteristics were collected and, if published, full reports retrieved. Risk factors for early discontinuation for slow recruitment and nonpublication were explored using multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In total, 863 RCT protocols involving adult patients were identified, 127 in surgery (15%) and 736 in medicine (85%). Surgical trials were discontinued for any reason more often than medical trials [43% vs 27%, risk difference 16% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5%-26%); P = 0.001] and more often discontinued for slow recruitment [18% vs 11%, risk difference 8% (95% CI: 0.1%-16%); P = 0.020]. The percentage of trials not published as full journal article was similar in surgical and medical trials (44% vs 40%, risk difference 4% (95% CI: -5% to 14%); P = 0.373). Discontinuation of surgical trials was a strong risk factor for nonpublication (odds ratio = 4.18, 95% CI: 1.45-12.06; P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuation and nonpublication rates were substantial in surgical RCTs and trial discontinuation was strongly associated with nonpublication. These findings need to be taken into account when interpreting surgical literature. Surgical trialists should consider feasibility studies before embarking on full-scale trials.

Bevacizumab, Pemetrexed, and Cisplatin, or Bevacizumab and Erlotinib for Patients With Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Stratified by Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutation: Phase II Trial SAKK19/09.

OBJECTIVE: The goal was to demonstrate that tailored therapy, according to tumor histology and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation status, and the introduction of novel drug combinations in the treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer are promising for further investigation. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter phase II trial with mandatory EGFR testing and 2 strata. Patients with EGFR wild type received 4 cycles of bevacizumab, pemetrexed, and cisplatin, followed by maintenance with bevacizumab and pemetrexed until progression. Patients with EGFR mutations received bevacizumab and erlotinib until progression. Patients had computed tomography scans every 6 weeks and repeat biopsy at progression. The primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS) ≥ 35% at 6 months in stratum EGFR wild type; 77 patients were required to reach a power of 90% with an alpha of 5%. Secondary end points were median PFS, overall survival, best overall response rate (ORR), and tolerability. Further biomarkers and biopsy at progression were also evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 77 evaluable patients with EGFR wild type received an average of 9 cycles (range, 1-25). PFS at 6 months was 45.5%, median PFS was 6.9 months, overall survival was 12.1 months, and ORR was 62%. Kirsten rat sarcoma oncogene mutations and circulating vascular endothelial growth factor negatively correlated with survival, but thymidylate synthase expression did not. A total of 20 patients with EGFR mutations received an average of 16 cycles. PFS at 6 months was 70%, median PFS was 14 months, and ORR was 70%. Biopsy at progression was safe and successful in 71% of the cases. CONCLUSIONS: Both combination therapies were promising for further studies. Biopsy at progression was feasible and will be part of future SAKK studies to investigate molecular mechanisms of resistance.

Positive Emotions Program for Schizophrenia (PEPS): a pilot intervention to reduce anhedonia and apathy.

BACKGROUND: Recent literature has distinguished the negative symptoms associated with a diminished capacity to experience (apathy, anhedonia) from symptoms associated with a limited capacity for expression (emotional blunting, alogia). The apathy-anhedonia syndrome tends to be associated with a poorer prognosis than the symptoms related to diminished expression. The efficacy of drug-based treatments and psychological interventions for these symptoms in schizophrenia remains limited. There is a clear clinical need for new treatments. METHODS: This pilot study tested the feasibility of a program to reduce anhedonia and apathy in schizophrenia and assessed its impact on 37 participants meeting the ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders. Participants were pre- and post-tested using the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS) and the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia (CDSS). They took part in eight sessions of the Positive Emotions Program for Schizophrenia (PEPS)--an intervention that teaches participants skills to help overcome defeatist thinking and to increase the anticipation and maintenance of positive emotions. RESULTS: Thirty-one participants completed the program; those who dropped out did not differ from completers. Participation in the program was accompanied by statistically significant reductions in the total scores for Avolition-Apathy and Anhedonia-Asociality on the SANS, with moderate effect sizes. Furthermore, there was a statistically significant reduction of depression on the CDSS, with a large effect size. Emotional blunting and alogia remain stable during the intervention. DISCUSSION: Findings indicate that PEPS is both a feasible intervention and is associated with an apparently specific reduction of anhedonia and apathy. However, these findings are limited by the absence of control group and the fact that the rater was not blind to the treatment objectives. CONCLUSIONS: PEPS is a promising intervention to improve anhedonia and apathy which need to be tested further in a controlled study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN registry ISRCTN74048461, registered 18 may 2015.

Potential for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions by Using Biomethane as a Road Transportation Fuel

The aim of this thesis is to study whether the use of biomethane as a transportation fuel is reasonable from climate change perspective. In order to identify potentials and challenges for the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this dissertation focuses on GHG emission comparisons, on feasibility studies and on the effects of various calculation methodologies. The GHG emissions calculations are carried out by using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies. The aim of these LCA studies is to figure out the key parameters affecting the GHG emission saving potential of biomethane production and use and to give recommendations related to methodological choices. The feasibility studies are also carried out from the life cycle perspective by dividing the biomethane production chain for various operators along the life cycle of biomethane in order to recognize economic bottlenecks. Biomethane use in the transportation sector leads to GHG emission reductions compared to fossil transportation fuels in most cases. In addition, electricity and heat production from landfill gas, biogas or biomethane leads to GHG reductions as well. Electricity production for electric vehicles is also a potential route to direct biogas or biomethane energy to transportation sector. However, various factors along the life cycle of biomethane affect the GHG reduction potentials. Furthermore, the methodological selections have significant effects on the results. From economic perspective, there are factors related to different operators along the life cycle of biomethane, which are not encouraging biomethane use in the transportation sector. To minimize the greenhouse gas emissions from the life cycle of biomethane, waste feedstock should be preferred. In addition, energy consumption, methane leakages, digestate utilization and the current use of feedstock or biogas are also key factors. To increase the use of biomethane in the transportation sector, political steering is needed to improve the feasibility for the operators. From methodological perspective, it is important to recognize the aim of the life cycle assessment study. The life cycle assessment studies can be divided into two categories: 1.) To produce average GHG information of biomethane to evaluate the acceptability of biomethane use compared to fossil transportation fuels. 2.) To produce GHG information of biomethane related to actual decision-making situations. This helps to figure out the actual GHG emission changes in cases when feedstock, biogas or biomethane are already in other use. For example directing biogas from electricity production to transportation use does not necessarily lead to additional GHG emission reductions. The use of biomethane seems to have a lot of potential for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as a transportation fuel. However, there are various aspects related to production processes, to the current use of feedstock or biogas and to the feasibility that have to be taken into account.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Profits and votes: Entrepreneurs and the government in Brazilian housing policy

ABSTRACTAfter more than twenty years of low housing construction output, the housing policy recovered its momentum in the country with the ascent of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers' Party, PT) to the seat of the federal government. This article demonstrates - through the analysis of documents, interviews and research conducted with businessmen - that the impetus of such a state policy is a part of the PT electoral strategy, which is based on economic growth and the expansion of social programs. The research analyses the dovetailing of interests between the Lula (the Brazilian President from 2003 to 2010) administration and the civil construction business - the latter concerned with expanding its business, and the former with increasing the supply of jobs and the level of economic activity. This process culminated in the launching of the largest social housing program to be implemented in the country. Minha Casa, Minha Vida (My House, My Life), is a project in whose planning building companies played a key role, performing feasibility studies and carrying out social housing projects.

Home Made Cars: An insight on Consumer Ethnocentrism – Case Saab

Saab outstands in the history of the Finnish car manufacturing. This is not only due to that these cars have been manufactured in Finland more than other passenger vehicles altogether. Finns also have a special emotional attachment to the “Finnish Saabs”. Findings from previous studies show that consumers connect cars well to the origin of the brand (COB). They are however rarely aware of the Country of Manufacturing (COM). Domestic brands are often popular in the COB, but research from situations in which the domestic origin is limited to the COM is rare. The case of this study is a phenomenon, in which the products origin is two dimensional and divided into domestic COM and foreign COB. The aim is to understand the phenomenon’s effect on consumer behavior. The research problem is approached with two sub questions: • Which country do consumers perceive as the origin country of the car? • What is the role of this origin in the consumers’ product perception and purchasing decision of the car? The theoretical framework of this study applies previous findings of two areas of interest: Country of Origin effect and Consumer Ethnocentrism. This is followed by feasibility studies that present and discuss the history and current state of Finnish car manufacturing. Based on the findings of earlier stages of the study, the role of the domestic COM on consumer behavior is presumed high. This expectation is confirmed by the experts and also by the first consumer respondent, who states domestic origin having been the main motivation to his car choice. All further consumer respondents do however not connect Saab to the home country, but discuss it as a Nordic car. This unexpected finding means that they do not perceive the origin to be neither the COM nor COB, but a geographical area that includes both countries. In other words, consumers have widened their in-group in a way that is in this thesis explained with reference group theory. The consumers’ perceived origin of the car is in this research found to be an important factor to the consumers’ product perception and purchasing decision. Being fit for the yields of the local environment is discovered to have been the most important factor to Finnish consumers purchasing choice of a Saab and the Nordic origin has been an indicator of this fit to them.