Predicting entry of Swedish wholesale firms into local markets

Applying microeconomic theory, we develop a forecasting model for firm entry into local markets and test this model using data from the Swedish wholesale industry. The empirical analysis is based on directly estimating the profit function of wholesale firms. As in previous entry studies, profits are assumed to depend on firm- and location-specific factors,and the profit equation is estimated using panel data econometric techniques. Using the residuals from the profit equation estimations, we identify local markets in Sweden where firm profits are abnormally high given the level of all independent variables included in the profit function. From microeconomic theory, we then know that these local markets should have higher net entry than other markets, all else being equal, and we investigate this in a second step,also using a panel data econometric model. The results of estimating the net-entry equation indicate that four of five estimated models have more net entry in high-return municipalities, but the estimated parameter is only statistically significant at conventional levels in one of our estimated models.

Return to Work after Traumatic Hand Injuries: Medical, Personal and Work-related Factors

PURPOSE This study aimed to examine the work-related impact of open hand injuries, specifically, the amount of lost work days subsequent to the injury and factors associated with work-related rehabilitation. PATIENTS AND METHODS We retrospectivley included consecutive patients with acute hand injuries who were operated between 2008 and 2009 in the Division of Hand Surgery (n=435) at the Department of Orthopaedic, Plastic and Hand Surgery. Information was obtained from the medical records and via a self-reported questionnaire sent out in 2011. Patients younger than 18 or older than 65 years, as well as the unemployed were excluded from the study. Descriptive group analysis was used to establish statistical relationships between time off work (TOW) and possible influencing variables. Multiple linear regression was applied to analyse the impact of injury, personal and/or work-related factors on TOW. RESULTS The sample included 290 patients with a mean age of 38.9 (SD 13.2) years of whom 98.6% returned to work after a median absence of 45.5 days. Univariate analysis demonstrated an association of length of absence from work with socio-demographic, clinical and work-related factors. Multiple regression analysis indicated that the location of injury, the number of injured regions, the need for secondary surgery, age, and the type of occupation were independently associated with TOW. CONCLUSION Most factors associated with TOW after traumatic hand injuries could not be influenced. Possible interventions should probably target improved injury prevention, optimal clinical treatment and rehabilitation starting early after injury. Whether improvements in communication and enhancement of cooperation between the treatment teams, the workplace and the insurance carrier may support a staged and earlier return to work remains to be investigated.

Factors that motivate RNs to return to school for the BSN and to remain in school to complete the degree

This exploratory descriptive study examined the factors that influence Registered Nurses (RNs) to return to school to pursue a Baccalaureate of Science in Nursing degree (BSN) and the factors that contribute to the decision to remain in school to complete the degree. Students (N = 226) enrolled in RN-BSN programs in three different universities in southeast Florida participated in the study by completing researcher developed questionnaires. The study group included 140 students who were newly enrolled in an RN-BSN program and 86 students who were preparing to graduate from an RN-BSN program. The instruments used in this study were two researcher developed questionnaires, the Corbett Nursing Educational Motivational Inventory - Form A (CNEMI-A), administered to the newly enrolled students, and the Corbett Nursing Educational Motivational Inventory - Form B (CNEMI-B), administered to the graduating students. The questionnaires included researcher-developed items in addition to items derived from a modified form of the Educational Participation Scale used by other researchers. Demographic data were also collected. Findings indicated that changes in health care, career goals, personal satisfaction, and flexible curriculum patterns are the major reasons why RNs return to school for the BSN. Less significant factors were social support, salary increase, and employer expectations. The factors considered most significant in the decision to remain in school to complete the degree were ranked in the following order: personal achievement, changes in health care, career change/advancement, enrollment options, faculty support, social support, and employer support. Implications for nurse educators related to the changing roles of RNs and the need to continue to assist RNs to adapt to new roles in health care. Recommendations for future research on RN-BSN nursing education included studies to identify the courses considered most useful by RN-BSN students as compared to courses considered repetitive of basic nursing programs. Studies were also recommended to examine the differences between the needs of RNs related to experience as an RN and recency of education. Additional studies were recommended to determine the feasibility of dual-enrollment ADN/BSN programs for last semester ADN students. ^

Important factors in predicting mortality outcome from stroke : findings from the Anglia Stroke Clinical Network Evaluation Study

The Anglia Stroke Clinical Network Evaluation Study (ASCNES) is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Research for Patient Benefit Programme (PB-PG-1208-18240). This paper presents independent research funded by the NIHR under its Research for Patient Benefit (RfPB) programme (Grant Reference Number PB-PG-1208-18240). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. EAW receives funding support from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre award to Cambridge

Predicting Outcomes Of Balloon Laryngoplasty In Children With Subglottic Stenosis.

The treatment of subglottic stenosis in children remains a challenge for the otolaryngologist and may involve procedures such as endoscopy, open surgery, and often both. In the recent past, high-pressure balloons have been used in endoscopic treatment due to their relative facility and high success rates. To report success rates in the treatment of acquired subglottic stenosis with balloon laryngoplasty in children and identify predictive factors for the success of the technique and its complications. Descriptive, prospective study of children who were diagnosed with acquired subglottic stenosis and underwent balloon laryngoplasty as the primary treatment. Balloon laryngoplasty was performed in 48 children with an average age of 20.7 months: 31 presented with chronic subglottic stenosis and 17 with acute stenosis. Success rate was 100% for acute and 39% for chronic subglottic stenosis. Success was significantly associated with several factors, including recently acquired stenosis, initial grade of stenosis, younger patient age, and the absence of tracheotomy. Complications were transitory dysphagia observed in three children and a submucosal cyst in one of the patients. Balloon laryngoplasty may be considered as a first line of treatment for acquired subglottic stenosis. In acute cases, the success rate was 100%, and even though results are less promising in chronic cases, complications were not significant and the patients can undergo open surgery without contraindications. Predictive factors of success were acute stenosis, less severe grades of stenosis, younger patient age, and the absence of tracheotomy.

ECG scar quantification correlates with cardiac magnetic resonance scar size and prognostic factors in Chagas' disease

Objective To test the hypothesis that 12-lead ECG QRS scoring quantifies myocardial scar and correlates with disease severity in Chagas' heart disease. Design Patients underwent 12-lead ECG for QRS scoring and cardiac magnetic resonance with late gadolinium enhancement (CMR-LGE) to assess myocardial scar. Setting University of Sao Paulo Medical School, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Patients 44 Seropositive patients with Chagas' disease without a history of myocardial infarction and at low risk for coronary artery disease. Main outcome measures Correlation between QRS score, CMR-LGE scar size and left ventricular ejection fraction. Relation between QRS score, heart failure (HF) class and history of ventricular tachycardia (VT). Results QRS score correlated directly with CMR-LGE scar size (R=0.69, p<0.0001) and inversely with left ventricular ejection fraction (R=-0.54, p=0.0002), which remained significant in the subgroup with conduction defects. Patients with class II or III HF had significantly higher QRS scores than those with class I HF (5.1 +/- 3.4 vs 2.1 +/- 3.1 QRS points (p=0.002)) and patients with a history of VT had significantly higher QRS scores than those without a history of VT (5.3 +/- 3.2% vs 2.6 +/- 3.4 QRS points (p=0.02)). A QRS score >= 2 points had particularly good sensitivity and specificity (95% and 83%, respectively) for prediction of large CMR-LGE, and a QRS score >= 7 points had particularly high specificity (92% and 89%, respectively) for predicting significant left ventricular dysfunction and history of VT. Conclusions The wide availability of 12-lead ECG makes it an attractive screening tool and may enhance clinical risk stratification of patients at risk for more severe, symptomatic Chagas' heart disease.

Prognostic factors for progression of liver structural lesions in chronic hepatitis C patients

AIM: To evaluate the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory and histological variables capable of predicting the progression of hepatic structural disturbances in chronic hepatitis C patients during the time interval between two liver biopsies. METHODS: Clinical charts of 112 chronic hepatitis C patients were retrospectively analyzed, whereas liver biopsies were revised. Immunohistochemical detection of interferon receptor was based on the Envision-Peroxidase System. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, the variables in the age at first biopsy, ALT levels, presence of lymphoid aggregates and siderosis were the determinants of the best model for predicting the severity of the disease. The direct progression rate of hepatic structural lesions was significantly higher in untreated patients, intermediate in treated non-responders and lower in treated responders to antiviral therapy (non-treated vs responders, 0.22 +/- 0.50 vs -0.15 +/- 0.46, P = 0.0053). Immuno-expression of interferon receptor is not a relevant factor. CONCLUSION: The best predictors of the progression of fibrosis are age at the first liver biopsy, extent of ALT elevation, inflammation at liver histology and hepatic siderosis. Antiviral treatment is effective in preventing the progression of liver structural lesions in chronic hepatitis C patients. (C) 2008 WJG. All rights reserved.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

How to do safe sternal reentry and the risk factors of redo cardiac surgery: A 21-year review with zero major cardiac injury

Objectives: Resternotomy is a common part of cardiac surgical practice. Associated with resternotomy are the risks of cardiac injury and catastrophic hemorrhage and the subsequent elevated morbidity and mortality in the operating room or during the postoperative period. The technique of direct vision resternotomy is safe and has fewer, if any, serious cardiac injuries. The technique, the reduced need for groin cannulation and the overall low operative mortality and morbidity are the focus of this restrospective analysis. Methods: The records of 495 patients undergoing 546 resternotomies over a 21-year period to January 2000 were reviewed. All consecutive reoperations by the one surgeon comprised patients over the age of 20 at first resternotomy: M:F 343:203, mean age 57 years (range 20 to 85, median age 60). The mean NYHA grade was 2.3 [with 67 patients (1), 273 (11),159 (111), 43 (IV), and 4 (V classification)] with elective reoperation in 94.6%. Cardiac injury was graded into five groups and the incidence and reasons for groin cannulation estimated. The morbidity and mortality as a result of the reoperation and resternotomy were assessed. Results: The hospital/30 day mortality was 2.9% (95% Cl: 1.6%-4.4%) (16 deaths) over the 21 years. First (481), second (53), and third (12) resternotomies produced 307 uncomplicated technical reopenings, 203 slower but uncomplicated procedures, 9 minor superficial cardiac lacerations, and no moderate or severe cardiac injuries. Direct vision resternotomy is crystalized into the principle that only adhesions that are visualized from below are divided and only sternal bone that is freed of adhesions is sewn. Groin exposure was never performed prophylactically for resternotomy. Fourteen patients (2.6%) had such cannulation for aortic dissection/aneurysm (9 patients), excessive sternal adherence of cardiac structures (3 patients), presurgery cardiac arrest (1 patient), and high aortic cannulation desired and not possible (1 patient). The average postop blood loss was 594 mL (95% CI:558-631) in the first 12 hours. The need to return to the operating room for control of excessive bleeding was 2% (11 patients). Blood transfusion was given in 65% of the resternotomy procedures over the 21 years (mean 854 mL 95% Cl 765-945 mL) and 41% over the last 5 years. Conclusions: The technique of direct vision resternotomy has been associated with zero moderate or major cardiac injury/catastrophic hemorrhage at reoperation. Few patients have required groin cannulation. In the postoperative period, there was acceptable blood loss, transfusion rates, reduced morbidity, and moderate low mortality for this potentially high risk group.

Predicting sheetwash and rill erosion over the Australian continent

Soil erosion is a major environmental issue in Australia. It reduces land productivity and has off-site effects of decreased water quality. Broad-scale spatially distributed soil erosion estimation is essential for prioritising erosion control programs and as a component of broader assessments of natural resource condition. This paper describes spatial modelling methods and results that predict sheetwash and rill erosion over the Australian continent using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and spatial data layers for each of the contributing environmental factors. The RUSLE has been used before in this way but here we advance the quality of estimation. We use time series of remote sensing imagery and daily rainfall to incorporate the effects of seasonally varying cover and rainfall intensity, and use new digital maps of soil and terrain properties. The results are compared with a compilation of Australian erosion plot data, revealing an acceptable consistency between predictions and observations. The modelling results show that: (1) the northern part of Australia has greater erosion potential than the south; (2) erosion potential differs significantly between summer and winter; (3) the average erosion rate is 4.1 t/ha. year over the continent and about 2.9 x 10(9) tonnes of soil is moved annually which represents 3.9% of global soil erosion from 5% of world land area; and (4) the erosion rate has increased from 4 to 33 times on average for agricultural lands compared with most natural vegetated lands.

Predicting energy requirements in the clinical setting: Are current methods evidence based?

Estimating energy requirements is necessary in clinical practice when indirect calorimetry is impractical. This paper systematically reviews current methods for estimating energy requirements. Conclusions include: there is discrepancy between the characteristics of populations upon which predictive equations are based and current populations; tools are not well understood, and patient care can be compromised by inappropriate application of the tools. Data comparing tools and methods are presented and issues for practitioners are discussed. (C) 2003 International Life Sciences Institute.

Constipation in intensive care unit: Incidence and risk factors

Purpose: Although gastrointestinal motility disorders are common in critically ill patients, constipation and its implications have received very little attention. We aimed to determine the incidence of constipation to find risk factors and its implications in critically ill patients Materials and Methods: During a 6-month period, we enrolled all patients admitted to an intensive care unit from an universitary hospital who stayed 3 or more days. Patients submitted to bowel surgery were excluded. Results: Constipation occurred in 69.9% of the patients. There was no difference between constipated and not constipated in terms of sex, age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, type of admission (surgical, clinical, or trauma), opiate use, antibiotic therapy, and mechanical ventilation. Early (<24 hours) enteral nutrition was associated with less constipation, a finding that persisted at multivariable analysis (P < .01). Constipation was not associated with greater intensive care unit or mortality, length of stay, or days free from mechanical ventilation. Conclusions: Constipation is very common among critically ill patients. Early enteral nutrition is associated with earlier return of bowel function. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Local immunological factors associated with recurrence of mucosal leishmaniasis

Recurrence of mucosal leishmaniasis (ML) is frequent, but the causative mechanisms are unknown. Our aim was to compare cellular and cytokine patterns of lesions from ML that evolved to recurrence or cure in order to determine the risk factor associated with recurrence. Lesions were evaluated by immunohistochemistry before and after therapy, and patients were followed-up for five years. Higher levels of CD4(+) T and IFN-gamma-producing cells were detected in active lesions and decreased after therapy. Macrophages and IL-10 were markedly increased in cured patients. Conversely, CD8(+) T and NK cells were higher in relapsed than in cured cases. Notably, a decrease in these cells in addition to decreased IL-10 and IFN-gamma was also observed after therapy. These data suggest that exacerbated CD8(+) activity, in addition to a poor regulatory response, could underlie an unfavorable fate with regard to ML. These markers may be useful for predicting the prognosis of ML in lesion studies. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Role of Carcinoembriogenic Antigen in Predicting Response and Survival to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Distal Rectal Cancer

PURPOSE: Carcinoembriogenic antigen (CEA) is the most frequently used tumor marker in rectal cancer. A decrease in carcinoembriogenic antigen after radical surgery is associated with survival in these patients. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy may lead to significant primary tumor downstaging, including complete tumor regression in selected patients. Therefore, we hypothesized that a decrease in CEA after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy could reflect tumor response to chemoradiotherapy, affecting final disease stage and ultimately survival. METHODS: Patients with distal rectal cancer managed by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and available pretreatment and postchemoradiotherapy levels of CEA were eligible for the study. Outcomes studied included final disease stage, relapse, and survival, and these were compared according to initial CEA level, postchemoradiotherapy CEA level, and the reduction in CEA. RESULTS: Overall 170 patients were included. Postchemoradiotherapy CEA levels < 5 ng/ml were associated with increased rates of complete clinical response and pathologic response. Additionally, postchemoradiotherapy CEA levels < 5 ng/ml were associated with increased overall and disease-free survival (P = 0.01 and P = 0.03). There was no correlation between initial CEA level or reduction in CEA and complete response or survival. CONCLUSION: A postchemoradiotherapy CEA level < 5 ng/ml is a favorable prognostic factor for rectal cancer and is associated with increased rates of earlier disease staging and complete tumor regression. Postchemoradiotherapy CEA levels may be useful in decision making for patients who may be candidates for alterative treatment strategies.