Regional policy and spillovers from FDI in the UK

This paper tests one of the fundamental assumptions of regional policy makers over the last 20 years. Western governments, in seeking to attract internationally mobile capital have spent significant sums of public money on subsidies and grants. This is justified on the basis that the social returns to FDI are significantly greater than the private returns, due to productivity or technology spillovers from inward investors to domestic industry. However, this paper generates some estimates of these spillovers for both assisted areas and non-assisted areas in the UK, and questions the size of these social returns, arguing that productivity spillovers do not occur in regions where significant inward investment incentives are available.

FDI and the labour market: a review of the evidence and policy implications

This paper presents a series of results concerning the labour-market impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the UK. The paper demonstrates that one of the crucial impacts of FDI is to increase wage inequality and the use of relatively more skilled labour in the domestic firms. This result is found to be a combination of two effects. First, the entry by a multinational enterprise (MNE) increases the demand for skilled workers in an industry or region, thus increasing wage inequality. Second, technology spillovers occur from foreign to domestic firms. As a result of these spillovers, relative demand for skilled workers increases in the domestic firms, further contributing to aggregate wage inequality and skill upgrading. The paper also considers how FDI impacts upon skill shares by productivity differentials between foreign and domestic firms. Finally, the policy implications of this are discussed, from the perspective of regional development, and the likely effectiveness of attracting FDI to reduce structural unemployment.

The causal relationship between information and communication technology and foreign direct investment

This paper investigates the simultaneous causal relationship between investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), with reference to its implications on economic growth. For the empirical analysis we use data from 23 major countries with heterogeneous economic development for the period 1976-99. Our causality test results suggest that there is a causal relationship from ICT to FDI in developed countries, which means that a higher level of ICT investment leads to an increase inflow of FDI. ICT may contribute to economic growth indirectly by attracting more FDI. Contrarily, we could not find significant causality from ICT to FDI in developing countries. Instead, we have partial evidence of opposite causality relationship: the inflow of FDI causes further increases in ICT investment and production capacity. © United Nations University 2006.

FDI, linkages and the efficiency of state-owned enterprises in China

As China seeks to consolidate its position as an emerging global economic power, reforming the largely inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs) presents a major challenge. Using a comprehensive micro data set, we investigate whether SOEs in China have benefited from the managerial, technical and organisational skills possessed by multinational firms operating in the economy, and conclude that the evidence in favour of positive spillovers is not overwhelming. Limited regional linkages and low level of absorptive capacity are found to be the main reasons for this disappointing performance. Policy makers involved in the reform of SOEs should ensure that managers have the right incentives to make long-term investment in absorptive capacity development.

Linking FDI motivation and host economy productivity effects:conceptual and empirical analysis

We develop a taxonomy that relates foreign direct investment (FDI) motivation (technology- and cost-based) to its anticipated effects on host countries domestic productivity. We then empirically examine the effects of FDI into the United Kingdom on domestic productivity, and find that different types of FDI have markedly different productivity spillover effects, which are consistent with the conceptual analysis. The UK gains substantially only from inward FDI motivated by a strong technology-based ownership advantage. As theory predicts, inward FDI motivated by technology-sourcing considerations leads to no productivity spillovers.

Productivity and labour demand effects of inward and outward FDI on UK industry

We relate the technological and factor price determinants of inward and outward FDI to its potential productivity and labour market effects on both host and home economies. This allows us to distinguish clearly between technology sourcing and technology exploiting FDI, and to identify FDI which is linked to labour cost differentials. We then empirically examine the effects of different types of FDI into and out of the United Kingdom on domestic (i.e. UK) productivity and on the demand for skilled and unskilled labour at the industry level. Inward investment into the UK comes overwhelmingly from sectors and countries which have a technological advantage over the corresponding UK sector. Outward FDI shows a quite different pattern, dominated by investment into foreign sectors which have lower unit labour costs than the UK. We find that different types of FDI have markedly different productivity and labour demand effects, which may in part explain the lack of consensus in the empirical literature on the effects of FDI. Our results also highlight the difficulty for policy makers of simultaneously improving employment and domestic productivity through FDI.

Macro determinants of FDI inflows to Japan:an analysis of source country characteristics

This paper examines the source country determinants of FDI into Japan. The paper highlights certain methodological and theoretical weaknesses in the previous literature and offers some explanations for hitherto ambiguous results. Specifically, the paper highlights the importance of panel data analysis, and the identification of fixed effects in the analysis rather than simply pooling the data. Indeed, we argue that many of the results reported elsewhere are a feature of this mis-specification. To this end, pooled, fixed effects and random effects estimates are compared. The results suggest that FDI into Japan is inversely related to trade flows, such that trade and FDI are substitutes. Moreover, the results also suggest that FDI increases with home country political and economic stability. The paper also shows that previously reported results, regarding the importance of exchange rates, relative borrowing costs and labour costs in explaining FDI flows, are sensitive to the econometric specification and estimation approach. The paper also discusses the importance of these results within a policy context. In recent years Japan has sought to attract FDI, though many firms still complain of barriers to inward investment penetration in Japan. The results show that cultural and geographic distance are only of marginal importance in explaining FDI, and that the results are consistent with the market-seeking explanation of FDI. As such, the attitude to risk in the source country is strongly related to the size of FDI flows to Japan. © 2007 The Authors Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

FDI, trade and growth, a causal link?

. FDI, Trade and Growth, a Causal Link? (RP0710) Prof Nigel DRIFFIELD Dr Rakesh BISSOONDEEAL Mayang Pramadhani Non-technical Summary This paper explores the relationship between imports, exports, foreign direct investment and growth. For some time there has been a good deal of debate whether trade and foreign direct investment) FDI are substitutes and complements, with the existing literature generating some rather contradictory findings. We show, for Indonesia that inward FDI and both imports and exports are complementary, and further that FDI causes an increase in trade. This is of particular interest for a country such as Indonesia, that has attracted a high proportion of export-orientated inward investment. This, theoretically at least is associated with an increase in imports, in the form of capital goods and components, but a reduction in imports. We show that the previous literature that fails to find such a relationship does so because both trade and FDI are associated with growth, and previous work ignores these growth effects when seeking to isolate the relationship between trade and FDI.

Do Keiretsu really hinder FDI into Japanese manufacturing?

This paper examines an issue that has received a good deal of comment in the literature, but little analysis. It has been often argued that the presence of the Keiretsu in Japan has been instrumental in deterring multinational firms from entering Japan, though evidence for this is patchy. We therefore present some new analysis of this issue, evaluating the links between Keiretsu presence and inward investment penetration across sectors in Japan. We show that Keiretsu presence is associated with inward investment penetration. Once one allows for factors such as market structure, then Keiretsu attract rather than deter FDI. We further offer some explanation of why this may be, and contrast our findings with earlier work. RP0816.

Technology flows, outsourcing and productivity:an analysis of UK trade and FDI

By engaging in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) with foreign partners, a country can access the R&D and related knowledge stocks of other countries (by accident or by design) and so benefit from those stocks of knowledge at a cost lower than that which would be incurred by developing the knowledge internally. This should lead to beneficial ‘spillover’ effects on the productivity of domestic firms. However, the literature on technology spillovers from trade and FDI is ambiguous in its findings. This may in part be because of the assumption in much of the work that trade and FDI flows are homogeneous in their determinants and thus in their effects. We develop a taxonomy of trade and FDI determinants based on R&D intensity and unit labour cost differentials, and test for the presence of spillovers from inward investment and imports on an extensive sample of UK manufacturing plants. We find that both trade and FDI have measurable spillover effects, but the size of these effects varies depending on the technological and labour cost differentials between the UK and its trading partners. There is therefore an identifiable link between the determinants and effects of trade and FDI which the previous literature has not explored. We also find that absorptive capacity matters for spillovers from FDI, but not from trade. Overall, these findings suggest that the productivity effects of FDI are largely restricted to plants with high absorptive capacity, while the productivity effects of imports occur largely among higher-technology plants regardless of their absorptive capacity.

The future of offshoring FDI in high-tech sectors

This paper examines what is still a relatively new phenomenon in the literature, the outsourcing/offshoring of high-technology manufacturing and services. This has become a concern for both policy makers and academics for two reasons. Firstly, policy makers have become concerned that the offshoring of high-technology sectors in the West will follow the more labour intensive sectors, and move to lower cost locations. Secondly, international business theory has tended to view low costs, and high levels of indigenous technological development as being the two main drivers of location advantage in the attraction of FDI. We show that this may not be the case for offshored high-technology manufacturing or services.

Offshoring:a multi-country study of FDI in high-technology sectors

This paper examines what is still a relatively new phenomenon in the literature, the outsourcing / offshoring of high technology manufacturing and services. This has become a concern for both policy makers and academics for two reasons. Firstly, policy makers have become concerned that the offshoring of high technology sectors in the West will follow the more labour intensive sectors, and move to lower cost locations. Secondly, international business theory has tended to view low costs, and high levels of indigenous technological development as being the two main drivers of location advantage in the attraction of FDI. We show that this may not be the case for offshored high technology manufacturing or services.

Determinants and impacts of inward FDI in Japan

The research consists of three empirical studies. The first examines how source country characteristics affect the aggregate FDI inflows in the Japanese economy during the period of 1989-2002. Our results demonstrate that the stable investment climate of the home country is an essential factor indicating FDI inflows to Japan. By contrast, the export performance of the source country is negatively correlated with FDI inflows, indicating that international trade and FDI are substitutes. The second study identifies the determinants of foreign penetration across Japanese manufacturing sectors at the three-digit level during the period of 1997-2003. More importantly, this study examines the moderating effects of keiretsu affiliations on the relationship between various sectoral characteristics and foreign participation. The evidence of both horizontal and vertical keiretsu impacts on foreign penetration depends on not only different proxy measures used for inward FDI, but also on the level of technological sophistication in given sectors. In general, our results demonstrate that horizontally linked keiretsu are positively associated with foreign productions in knowledge-intensive sectors. By contrast, this effect becomes a significant entry barrier to foreign employment in low-tech sectors. The final study evaluates the impacts of a foreign presence on the productivity of Japanese manufacturing firms over the period of 1997-2003. Our results suggest that spillover effects largely differ according to the level of absorptive capacity of indigenous firms.