Business cycles, long waves, and company langevity in Birmingham area metal industries 1780-1980

This doctoral thesis originates from an observational incongruence between the perennial aims and aspirations of economic endeavour and actually recorded outcomes, which frequently seem contrary to those intended and of a recurrent, cyclical type. The research hypothesizes parallel movement between unstable business environments through time, as expressed by periodically fluctuating levels of economic activity, and the precipitation rates of industrial production companies. A major problem arose from the need to provide theoretical and empirical cohesion from the conflicting, partial and fragmented interpretations of several hundred historians and economists, without which the research question would remain unanswerable. An attempt to discover a master cycle, or superimposition theorem, failed, but was replaced by minute analysis of both the concept of cycles and their underlying data-bases. A novel technique of congregational analysis emerged, resulting in an integrated matrix of numerical history. Two centuries of industrial revolution history in England and Wales was then explored and recomposed for the first time in a single account of change, thereby providing a factual basis for the matrix. The accompanying history of the Birmingham area provided the context of research into the failure rates and longevities of firms in the city's staple metal industries. Sample specific results are obtained for company longevities in the Birmingham area. Some novel presentational forms are deployed for results of a postal questionnaire to surviving firms. Practical demonstration of the new index of national economic activity (INEA) in relation to company insolvencies leads to conclusions and suggestions for further applications of research into the tempo of change, substantial Appendices support the thesis and provide a compendium of information covering immediately contiguous domains.

International business research and risky investments, an analysis of FDI in conflict zones

The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of a firm's strategy to invest in a conflict location. To the best of our knowledge, this has not been done before. We examine this using a standard model of international business, overlaid with the fundamental approach to corporate social responsibility. We start with the population of multinationals who have chosen to invest in low income countries with weak institutions. We then split this sample in order to distinguish between firms that have invested in conflict regions compared to those that have not. Our analysis then proceeds to explain the decision of those firms to invest in conflict locations using a simple Probit model. We find that countries with weaker institutions and less concern about corporate social responsibility (CSR) are more likely to invest in conflict regions. Finally, firms with more concentrated ownership are more likely to invest in such locations. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

The role of national culture in advertising's sensitivity to business cycles:an investigation across continents

The authors conduct a systematic investigation into the cyclical sensitivity of advertising expenditures in 37 countries, covering four key media: magazines, newspapers, radio, and television. They show that advertising is considerably more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the economy as a whole. Advertising behaves less cyclically in countries high in long-term orientation and power distance, but it is more cyclical in countries high in uncertainty avoidance. Furthermore, advertising is more sensitive to the business cycle in countries characterized by significant stock market pressure and few foreign-owned multinational corporations. The authors provide initial evidence on the long-term social and managerial losses incurred when companies tie ad spending too tightly to business cycles. Countries in which advertising behaves more cyclically exhibit slower growth of the advertising industry. Moreover, private-label growth is higher in countries characterized by more cyclical advertising spending, implying significant losses for brand manufacturers. Finally, an examination of 26 global companies shows that stock price performance is lower for companies that exhibit stronger procyclical advertising spending patterns.

Igazolható-e az üzleti ciklus az iparágak viselkedésével? = Can business cycles be proved with the behavior of enterprises?

A dolgozat alapja egy olyan Leontief-típusú gazdaság, ahol minden egyes ágazatban egy vállalat termel, tehát monopóliumokból áll a gazdaság. A vállalatok termelnek, és a termékeiket a piacon értékesítik. A gazdaság mozgásegyenleteit a vállalati mérleg összefüggések, valamint a piaci csere után a gazdaságban, a termékek készletváltozása írja le. Az így létrejött mozgásegyenletekből arra következtethetünk, hogy a ciklusok egy ilyen modellben szükségszerűen kialakulnak, tehát az üzleti ciklus a gazdaság működéséhez hozzátartozik. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D46, E32. = The aim of the paper is to analyze a Leontief-type economy, i.e. all firms produce only one product and only one technology. The firms sell the products on a monopolistic market. The move of this economy is controlled by the balance sheet expressions and the inventory level fluctuations. The differential equations of the move of this economy show a cyclical movement of the economy along the balanced growth path. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D46, E32.

Fejezetek a nemzetközi üzleti gazdaságtanból 4. = Chapters in International Business. Reviews on Selected Papers on International Business 4.

A kötet azzal a céllal készült, hogy a Nemzetközi vállalatgazdaságtant tanulmányozók számára további támpontokat és ismeretbővítési lehetőségeket adjon magyar nyelven. A műhelytanulmány a nemzetközi üzleti gazdaságtan (international business) öt témaköréről ad áttekintést: az internalizációs elmélet, az intézményi megközelítés, a külpiacra lépés kisvállalati nézőpontból, a leányvállalatok lehetséges szerepei, és végül módszertani megfontolások. A korábbi kötetekhez hasonlóan, a műhelytanulmány fejezeteit a BCE Gazdálkodástani Doktori Iskola PhD hallgatói készítették. ----- The aim of the working paper is to provide insights on selected areas in international business. It is a supplement for the Hungarian language IB textbook. Five fields are covered in the working paper: internalization theory and its extensions, forming institutions in host countries, challenges of foreign market entry for small businesses, roles of subsidiaries in the multinational corporations, and methodological issues in IB. The chapters in the working paper were prepared by the PhD students of the Business and Management PhD School at Corvinus University of Budapest.

A globális értékláncok – a multinacionális vállalat, mint globális gyár. Fejezetek a nemzetközi üzleti gazdaságtanból 6. ----- It's title in English: Global Value Chains – Multinational Enterprise as Global Factory. Chapters from International Business 6

A tanulmánykötet a globális értékláncok névvel fémjelezett jelenséget veszi górcső alá. A fókuszban a multinacionális vállalatcsoportok ill. a nemzetközi cégek állnak. A tíz tanulmány különböző megközelítések alapján betekintést ad abba, hogy hogyan ragadhatják meg és vizsgálhatják a kutatók a globális értékláncokat a vállalatok, ill. vezetőik nézőpontjából, mi következik a kutatási eredményekből a vállalatok vezetői számára, és milyen következményei vannak a globális értékláncok karakteres és terjedő jelenlétének a nemzetgazdaságok gazdasági politikáit formálókra. A tanulmánykötet szerzői a 2012/2013.tanév tavaszi félévében a Nemzetközi üzleti gazdaságtan c. PhD kurzus hallgatói voltak. ______ The working paper is to provide a Hungarian language overview on the research finding s on Global Value Chain and global factory. The phenomenon behind them is recognized but under researched in Hungary. The chapters of the working paper are to cover as many angles and perspectives of Global Value Chain as many it is possible. Each chapter is based on a published English language paper. Theoretical and conceptual issues, considerations of MNEs and small- and medium sized enterprises and that of national policies are discussed. Authors of the working paper attended the International Business PhD course in the spring semester of 2012/2013.

Language standardization in sociolinguistics and international business: Theory and practice across the table

This chapter addresses the issue of language standardization from two perspectives, bringing together a theoretical perspective offered by the discipline of sociolinguistics with a practical example from international business. We introduce the broad concept of standardization and embed the study of language standardization in the wider discussion of standards as a means of control across society. We analyse the language policy and practice of the Danish multinational, Grundfos, and use it as a “sociolinguistic laboratory” to “test” the theory of language standardization initially elaborated by Einar Haugen to explain the history of modern Norwegian. The table is then turned and a model from International Business by Piekkari, Welch and Welch is used to illuminate recent Norwegian language planning. It is found that the Grundfos case works well with the Haugen model, and the International Business model provides a valuable practical lesson for national language planners, both showing that a “comparative standardology” is a valuable undertaking. More voices “at the table” will allow both theory and practice to be further refined and for the role of standards across society to be better understood.

Strategic Management of Resources for International Business Operations in Small Consulting Firms - People, Processes and Tools in Managing International operations

Research on strategic management of resources for small consulting firms which are international or planning to operate internationally is scarce or not existing at all. It is however important to start generating the theories that will support managers in their decision making and planning. This thesis investigates how do small management consulting firms manage their internal and external resources while operating in international markets. Throughout the study, aspects related to internal and external resources management as well as management strategies in these firms have been examined in relations to firm’s internationalisation activities. A qualitative analysis was carried out whereby four small consulting firms in Export Management Consulting, Integration Services Consulting-, Software Development Consulting- and Business Solutions Consulting companies were interviewed. In order to generate the holistic understanding of the study, the thesis writer selected Value Enhanced Collaborative Working (VECW) model as an analysis framework. The model focuses on people, processes and tools as key elements that small consulting firms consider when thinking about managing their international operations. The findings of the thesis reveal that, internal and external resources in the interviewed consulting firms are viewed similarly, but managed differently depending on the nature and size of the firm. Firm’s management strategies concentrate on the adequate utilisation of the employees' motivation and experiences, effective stakeholders' management, various administrative evaluation processes and tools, the ability to realise useful networks, constant improvement through employee trainings, employees and customers’ feedbacks as well as enhanced freedom in order to support employees’ creativity. Further research to examine functional administrative tools and tools that small consulting firms could use to assess their resource capabilities when planning to become international would benefit the smaller businesses in terms of resources management and certainty in planning.

Measuring the intermittent synchronicity of macroeconomic growth in Europe. ACES Cases No. 2010.1

Synchronization of growth rates are an important feature of international business cycles, particularly in relation to regional integration projects such as the single currency in Europe. Synchronization of growth rates clearly enhances the effectiveness of European Central Bank monetary policy, ensuring that policy changes are attuned to the dynamics of growth and business cycles in the majority of member states. In this paper a dissimilarity metric is constructed by measuring the topological differences between the GDP growth patterns in recurrence plots for individual countries. The results show that synchronization of growth rates were higher among the Euro area member states during the second half of the 1980s and from 1997 to roughly 2002. Apart from these two time periods, Euro area member states do not appear to be more synchronized than a group of major international countries, signifying that globalization was the major cause of international business cycle synchronization.

International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model.

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. Standard models predict cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high. In this paper, we build a multi-country model of the business cycle with multiple sectors in order to analyze the role of sectoral shocks in the international transmission of the business cycle. We find that a model with multiple sectors generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models, and a lower cross-country correlation of consumption. In addition, it predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data than the standard model. We also analyze the relative effects of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation on the international transmission of the business cycle.

International entrepreneurship for SME business growth : a resource and dynamic capability view of the firm : an internet context

This research explores the relationship between international business Internet capabilities and international entrepreneurial characteristics. It has been suggested, that the accumulation of a firms Internet capability can assist international operations, especially when operating in fast changing dynamic environments. However, the international entrepreneurial characteristics which are seen as a precursor to leveraging such capabilities are still vague. Given this finding a conceptual framework is constructed and research issues are then developed in order to focus attention on the relationship between the Internet and a firm’s resource base, dynamic capabilities and international market performance.

Double tax agreements and the international allocation of business income in Australia

Increasingly, the effectiveness of the present system of taxation of international businesses is being questioned. The problem associated with the taxation of such businesses is twofold. A system of international taxation must be a fair and equitable system, distributing profits between the relevant jurisdictions and, in doing so, avoiding double taxation. At the same time, the prevention of fiscal evasion must be secured. In an attempt to achieve a fair and equitable system Australia adopts unilateral, bilateral and multilateral measures to avoid double taxation and restrict the avoidance of tax. The first step in ascertaining the international allocation of business income is to consider the taxation of business income according to domestic law, that is, the unilateral measures. The treatment of international business income under the Australian domestic law, that is, the Income Tax Assessment Act 1936 (Cth) and Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (Cth), will depend on two concepts, first, whether the taxpayer is a resident of Australia and secondly, whether the income is sourced in Australia. After the taxation of business profits has been determined according to domestic law it is necessary to consider the applicability of the bilateral measures, that is, the Double Tax Agreements (DTAs) to which Australia is a party, as the DTAs will override the domestic law where there is any conflict. Australia is a party to 40 DTAs with another seven presently being negotiated. The preamble to Australia's DTAs provides that the purpose of such agreements is 'to conclude an Agreement for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income'. Both purposes, for different reasons, are equally important. It has been said that: The taxpayer hopes the treaty will prevent the double taxation of his income; the tax gatherer hopes the treaty will prevent fiscal evasion; and the politician just hopes. The first purpose, the avoidance of double taxation, is achieved through the provision of rules whereby the Contracting States agree to the classification of income and the allocation of that income to a particular State. In this sense DTAs do not allocate jurisdiction to tax but rather provide an arrangement whereby the States agree to restrict their substantive law. The restriction is either through the non-taxing of the income or via the provision of a tax credit.

"Out of sync": The breakdown of economic sentiment cycles in the E.U.

We present empirical evidence about the properties of economic sentiment cycle synchronization for Germany, France and the UK and compare them with the `crisis' countries Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Instead of using output data we prefer to focus on the economic sentiment indicator (ESI), a forward-looking, survey-based variable consistently available from 1985. The cyclical nature of the ESI allows us to analyze the presence or not of synchronicity among country pairs before and after the onset of the financial crisis. Our results show that ESI movements were mostly synchronous before 2008 but they exhibit a breakdown after 2008, with this feature being more prominent in Greece. We also find that, after the political manoeuvring of the past two years, a cycle re-integration or re-synchronization is on the way. An analysis of the evolution of the synchronicity measures indicates that they can potentially be used to identify sudden phase breaks in ESI co-movement and they can offer a signal as to when the EU economies are getting “in” or “out of sync”.

Termes de l'échange endogènes et cycles économiques réels : une application à la Côte-d'Ivoire

À l’aide d’un modèle de cycles réels, la présente étude vise à expliquer, de façon endogène, les fluctuations des termes de l’échange en Côte-d’Ivoire. Pour ce faire, nous cherchons principalement à répondre aux deux questions suivantes : les chocs d’offre et de demande sur le marché d’exportation suffisent-ils à expliquer les variations des termes de l’échange? Et quelle est leur importance relative dans la dynamique des termes de l’échange? Les résultats montrent que les deux chocs considérés expliquent bien la volatilité des termes de l’échange. Nous avons noté que ces deux sources d’impulsions ont un impact significatif sur les fluctuations économiques en Côte-d’Ivoire.

The Discipline of Economics and Economic Cycles

In This Article, It Is Argued That the Long International, Financial and Economic Cycle (50-60 Years) Is More Than a Statistical Aberration, and Is the Result of Institutional Political, Financial and Economic Conditions Which Are Recurrent. It Is Proposed As an Hypothesis That the Breakdown of International Monetary Systems Is At the Origin of Hte Financial and Economic Long Cycle. Such a Breakdown Starts a Process of Unexpected Inflation, of Balance of Payments Imbalances and of International Indebtedness in a Key-Currency. the Last Stage of This Process Is Characterized by Disinflation, a Speculative Stock Market Boom and a Period of Debt-Liquidation Which Negatively Affect the Real Side of the Economy. Without an International and Automatic Mechanism to Correct the Financial and Economic International Imbalances, the World Economy Runs the Risk of Getting More and More Unstable Until the Turning Point. International Monetary Cooperation Could Contribute in Alleviating the Negative Spillovers Accompanying Hte Adjustment of These Imbalances.