Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change

Recent growth in the number of studies examining belief in climate change is a positive development, but presents an ironic challenge in that it can be difficult for academics, practitioners and policy makers to keep pace. As a response to this challenge, we report on a meta-analysis of the correlates of belief in climate change. Twenty-seven variables were examined by synthesizing 25 polls and 171 academic studies across 56 nations. Two broad conclusions emerged. First, many intuitively appealing variables (such as education, sex, subjective knowledge, and experience of extreme weather events) were overshadowed in predictive power by values, ideologies, worldviews and political orientation. Second, climate change beliefs have only a small to moderate effect on the extent to which people are willing to act in climate-friendly ways. Implications for converting sceptics to the climate change cause—and for converting believers’ intentions into action—are discussed.

From the river to the open sea - a critical life phase of young Atlantic salmon migrating from the Simojoki river

Long-term monitoring data collected from wild smolts of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Simojoki river, northern Finland, were used in studying the relationships between the smolt size and age, smolt and postsmolt migration, environmental conditions and postsmolt survival. The onset of the smolt run was significantly dependent on the rising water temperature and decreasing discharge of the river in the spring. The mean length of smolts migrating early in the season was commonly higher and the mean age always older than among smolts migrating later. Many of the smolts migrating early in the season and almost all smolts migrating later had started their new growth in spring in the river before their sea entry. Among postsmolts, the time required for emigration from the estuary was dependent on the sea surface temperature (SST) off the river, being significantly shorter in years with warm than cold sea temperatures. After leaving the estuary, the postsmolts migrated southwards along the eastern coast of the northern Gulf of Bothnia, the geographical distribution of the tag recoveries coinciding with the warm thermal zone in spring in the coastal area. After arriving in the southern Gulf of Bothnia in late summer the postsmolts mostly migrated near the western coast, reaching the Baltic Main Basin in late autumn. Until the early 1990s there was only a weak positive association between smolt length and postsmolt survival. However, following a subsequent decrease in the mean smolt size, a significant positive dependence was observed between smolt size and the reported recapture rate of tagged salmon. The differences in recapture rates between smolts tagged during the first and second half of the annual migration season were insignificant, indicating that the seasonal variation in smolt size and age seem to be too small to affect survival. Among the climatic factors examined, the summer SST in the Gulf of Bothnia was most clearly related to the survival of the wild postsmolts. Postsmolt survival appeared to be highest in years when the SST in June in the Bothnian Bay varied between 9 and 12 ºC. In addition, the survival of wild postsmolts showed a significant positive dependence on the SST in July in the Bothnian Sea, but not on the abundance of the prey fish (0+ herring, Clupea harengus and sprat, Sprattus sprattus) in the Bothnian Sea and in the Baltic Main Basin. The results suggest, that if the incidence of extreme weather conditions were to increase due to climatic changes, it would probably reduce the postsmolt survival of wild salmon populations. For improving the performance of hatchery-reared smolts, it could be useful to examine opportunities to produce smolts that are in their smolt traits and abilities more similar to the wild smolts described in this thesis.

Impacts of agriculture on amphibians at multiple scales

Agriculture-mediated habitat loss and degradation together with climate change are among the greatest global threats to species, communities, and ecosystem functioning. During the last century, more than 50% of the world's wetlands have been lost and agricultural activities have subjected wetland species to increased isolation and decreased quality of habitats. Likewise, as a part of agricultural intensification, the use of pesticides has increased notably, and pesticide residues occur frequently in wetlands making the exposure of wetland organisms to pesticides highly probable. In this thesis, a set of ecotoxicological and landscape ecological studies were carried out to investigate pesticide-effects on tadpoles, and species-habitat relationships of amphibians in agricultural landscapes. The results show that the fitness of R. temporaria tadpoles can be negatively affected by sublethal pesticide concentrations, and that pesticides may increase the costs of response to natural environmental stressors. However, tadpoles may also be able to compensate for some of the negative effects of pesticides. The results further demonstrate that both historic and current-day agricultural land use can negatively impact amphibians, but that in some cases the costs of living in agricultural habitats may only become apparent when amphibians face other environmental stressors, such as drought. Habitat heterogeneity may, however, increase the persistence of amphibians in agricultural landscapes. Hence, the results suggest that amphibians are likely to be affected by agricultural processes that operate at several spatial and temporal scales, and that it is probable that various processes related to current-day agriculture will affect both larval and adult amphibians. The results imply that maintaining dense wetland patterns could enhance persistence of amphibian populations in agricultural habitats, and indicate that heterogeneous landscapes may lower the risk of regional amphibian population declines under extreme weather perturbations.

Water resources: Embed stormwater use in city planning [Correspondence]

Potable water resources are being depleted at an alarming rate worldwide. Storm water is a hugely under-utilized resource that could help as extreme weather events become more frequent...

Timotein (Phleum pratense ssp. pratense L.) alkuperän vaikutus kylmänkestävyyteen, vernalisaatiovaatimukseen sekä kasvuun ja kehitykseen

Nurmiheinien merkitys maailmanlaajuisesti on merkittävä, sillä noin 69 % maapallon peltopinta-alasta on pysyvää laidunmaata tai niittyä. Suomessa nurmien osuus on noin 29 %, ja tuotanto perustuu pääosin intensiiviseen säilörehuntuotantoon. Yleisin nurmiheinälaji Suomessa on timotei (Phleum pratense ssp. pratense L.). Timotei on talvenkestävä ja soveltuu siksi pohjoisiin kasvuoloihin. Timoteilajikkeita jalostettaessa pohjoista alkuperää olevia vanhempaislinjoja käytetään hyvän talvenkestävyyden varmistamiseksi, eteläisiä tavoiteltaessa nopeaa kasvurytmiä. Ilmaston muutoksen ennustetaan lisäävän erilaisia äärioloja kuten myrskyjä ja sateita. Vuorokauden keskilämpötila nousee ja kasvukausi pidentyy. Lisäksi talvet muuttuvat sateisemmiksi. Muutokset näkyvät erityisesti pohjoisissa kasvuympäristöissä. Tutkimuksessa haluttiinkin selvittää eri alkuperää edustavien timoteilajikkeiden ja linjojen kylmänkestävyyttä, kasvu-, ja kehitysnopeutta sekä vernalisaation vaikutusta. Lisäksi tutkittiin syysviljojen vernalisaatiovasteen mittaamiseen käytettyjen menetelmien soveltuvuutta nurmille. Tutkimukseen kuului kaksivuotinen peltokoe sekä kasvatuskaappikoe. Vernalisaatio nopeutti timotein kasvua ja kehitystä. Tutkimuksen perusteella eteläistä alkuperää olevilla lajikkeilla kasvu- ja kukintavalmius oli olemassa ilman vernalisaatiota. Pohjoisilla lajikkeilla oli suurempi vernalisaatiovaste ja niiden kukkiminen ja kasvu nopeutui vernalisaation myötä. Vernalisaatiolla oli vaikutusta myös kasvuston rakenteeseen. Generatiivisten versojen määrä lisääntyi vernalisaation myötä, kun taas vegetatiivisten versojen määrä väheni. Kylmänkestävyys oli tutkimuksen perusteella riippuvainen syksyn karaistumisjakson pituudesta sekä jakson lämpösummasta (FH-COLD). Korkea keskilämpötila ja lyhyt karaistumisjakso heikensivät kylmänkestävyyttä. Vastaavasti karaistumiskauden lämpötilan ollessa välillä 0 °C:ta ja + 5 °C:ta ja jakson pituuden kasvaessa kylmänkestävyys lisääntyi. Tutkimuksen perusteella vernalisaatiolla oli selvä vaikutus timotein kasvuun ja kehitykseen. Pohjoista alkuperää olevat timoteit reagoivat vernalisaatioon eteläisiä enemmän. Osa pohjoisista linjoista vaati vernalisaation generatiivisten versojen muodostumiseen. Syysviljojen vernalisaatiovasteen mittausmenetelmät soveltuvat osin myös puhtaiden timoteilajikkeiden vernalisaation seurantaan.

Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Field Guide to Nonindigenous Marine Fishes of Florida

The purpose of this field guide is to provide information on nonindigenous (i.e., non-native) fishes that have been observed in Florida’s marine waters. Introductions of non-native marine fishes into Florida’s waters could be intentional or unintentional, and are likely from a variety of sources, including aquarium releases, escape from aquaculture, loss due to extreme weather events (e.g., flooding from hurricanes), and possibly transfer with ballast water or hull-fouling. Presently the lionfishes (Pterois volitans and P. miles) are the only non-native marine fish species known to be established along the coast of Florida. All other marine fishes in this guide (except the euryhaline species, see below) have infrequent occurrences, occur singly or in small groups, and have not yet become self-sustaining populations. Aquarium releases are one of the major pathways whereby nonindigenous fishes gain access to new environments (Ruiz et al. 1997; Fuller et al. 1999). Most of the nonindigenous marine fishes found in Florida’s waters are thought to be aquarium fishes that either were illegally released into the ocean or escaped captivity (e.g., during severe storm/flooding events). Indeed, south Florida is a hotspot for nonindigenous marine aquarium fishes (Semmens et al. 2004). Increased public awareness of the problems caused by released or escaped aquarium fishes may aid in stemming the frequency of releases. For example, HabitattitudeTM (www.habitattitude.net) is a national public awareness and partnership campaign that encourages aquarists and water gardeners to prevent the release of unwanted aquarium plants, fish and other animals. It prompts hobbyists to adopt alternative actions when dealing with these aquatic plants and animals. (PDF file contains 133 pages.)

Improving the chances for developing coastal country success in adapting to climate change

There is an unequivocal scientific consensus that increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere drive warming temperatures of air and sea, and acidification of the world’s oceans from carbon dioxide absorbed by the oceans. These changes in turn can induce shifts in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more frequent and severe extreme weather events (e.g. storms and sea surge). All of these impacts are already being witnessed in the world’s coastal regions and are projected to intensify in years to come. Taken together, these impacts are likely to result in significant alteration of natural habitats and coastal ecosystems, and increased coastal hazards in low-lying areas. They can affect fishers, coastal communities and resource users, recreation and tourism, and coastal infrastructure. Approaches to planned adaptation to these impacts can be drawn from the lessons and good practices from global experience in Integrated Coastal Management (ICM). The recently published USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change (USAID 2009) is directed at practitioners, development planners, and coastal management professionals in developing countries. It offers approaches for assessing vulnerability to climate change and climate variability in communities and outlines how to develop and implement adaptation measures at the local and national levels. Six best practices for coastal adaptation are featured in the USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change and summarized in the following sections. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Scoping report: current status of index-based insurance in Bangladesh

With current and anticipated increases in magnitude of extreme weather events and a declining consistency in weather patterns, particularly challenging for agriculture, there has been a growing interest in weather index-based insurance (IBI) schemes in Bangladesh. A number of weather index-based insurance products have already been tested and applied across Asia and Africa, with varying degrees of success, as a mechanism to improve livelihood security by enabling vulnerable populations to transfer risk associated with climate change, extreme weather events and other hazards. In the process, these efforts have generated important new knowledge on how these schemes can be designed and implemented for optimal results. However, the practice of index-based insurance is still limited in Bangladesh, and the experience and knowledge generated by the different stakeholders involved needs to be better communicated.

Tsunami wave runup on the clustered islands using boussinesq-type model

This paper describes the implementation of the Boussinesq-type model and extends its application to the tsunami wave runup on the clustered islands (multiple adjacent conical islands), in turn, an extensively validated two-dimensional Boussinesq-type model is employed to examine the interaction between a propagating solitary wave and multiple idealised conical islands, with particular emphasis on a combination effect of two adjustable parameters for spacing interval/diameter ratio between the adjacent conical islands, S/D, and the rotating angle of the structural configuration,θ on maximum soliton runup heights. An extensive parameter study concerning the combination effect of alteringθ and S/D on the maximum soliton runup with the multi-conical islands is subsequently carried out and the distributions of the maximum runup heights on each conical island are obtained and compared for the twin-island cases. The worst case study is performed for each case in respect of the enhancement in the maximum wave runup heights by the multi-conical islands. It is found that the nonlinear wave diffraction, reflection and refraction play a significant role in varying the maximum soliton runup heights on multiconical islands. The comparatively large maximum soliton runups are generally predicted for the merged and bottom mounted clusteredislands. Furthermore, the joints of the clustered-merged islands are demonstrated to suffer the most of the tsunami wave attack. The conical islands that position in the shadow regions behind the surrounding islands are found to withstand relatively less extreme wave impact. Although, these numerical investigations are considerable simplifications of the multi conical islands, they give a critical insight into certain important hydrodynamic characteristics of the interaction between an extreme wave event and a group of clustered conical islands, and thus providing a useful engineering guidance for extreme wave mitigation and coastal development. Copyright © 2012 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE).

Tomorrow's cities: a framework to assess urban resilience

Urbanisation is one of the great driving forces of the twenty-first century. Cities generate both productivity and creativity, and the benefits offered by high-density living and working contribute to sustainability. Cities comprise multiple components, forming both static and dynamic systems that are interconnected directly and indirectly on a number of levels. Bringing together large numbers of people within a complex system can lead to vulnerability from a wide range of hazards, threats and trends. The key to reducing this vulnerability is the identification of critical systems and determination of the implications of their failure and their interconnectivities with other systems. One emerging approach to these challenges focuses on building resilience – defined here as the degree to which a system can continue to function effectively in a changing environment. This paper puts forward a framework designed to help engineers, planners and designers to support cities in understanding the hazards, threats and trends that can make them vulnerable, and identify focus areas for building resilience into the systems, which allow it to function and prosper. Four case studies of cities whose resilience was tested by recent extreme weather events are presented, seeking to demonstrate the application of the proposed framework.

镇海棘螈和大凉疣螈年龄结构研究

通过趾骨切片可以准确鉴定年龄，了解一个物种的最长寿命，也为我们研究确定一个物种的生长特点、性成熟期,以及一个地区一个物种的年龄结构、种群生态(Marnell，1998)和群落生态提供重要信息(Morrison，et a1.，2004)。 本论文使用骨骼鉴龄法对中国浙江省宁波市北仑瑞岩寺林场的镇海棘螈（Echinotriton chinhaiensis）雌性繁群进行了年龄结构研究。结果显示：第一次参加繁殖的年龄为3龄；繁群中数量占优势的是5龄、6龄。而在6龄以后参加繁殖的雌性个体数便开始随着年龄的增大而逐渐减少。参加繁殖的雌性年龄最大个体为8龄。平均年龄为5.13龄。同时对其年龄和头体长、体全长的相关性检验,发现其年龄与头体长和体全长不相关,镇海棘螈雌性的生长方式表现为性成熟后能量主要用于繁殖。 另外,对李子坪大凉疣螈(Tylototriton taliangensis) 雄性繁群进行了年龄结构研究。结果显示：大凉疣螈雄性第一次参加繁殖的年龄为4龄；繁群中数量占优势的是5龄、6龄、7龄。而在7龄以后参加繁殖的雄性个体数便开始随着年龄的增大而逐渐减少。参加繁殖的雄性中年龄最大的个体为10龄。平均年龄为6.7龄。对其年龄和头体长、体全长的相关性检验,发现其年龄与头体长和体全长不相关,大凉疣螈雄性生长特点也表现为性成熟后生长缓慢的特点。 研究材料方面，本文采用野外采样与标本馆标本相结合的方式获得了中国蝾螈科2个重要保护物种繁殖群体的剪（指）趾材料，使得建立于其上的年龄结构工作更加可靠、更加具有代表性。 此外,本论文讨论了镇海棘螈瑞岩寺种群繁殖总量年度间的差异及其产生原因。将1998、1999、2000、2008、2009年镇海棘螈（Echinotriton chinhaiensis） 瑞岩寺种群的繁殖量进行比较，发现虽然雌性平均窝卵数比较稳定，但繁殖总量小于1998、1999、2000年任何一年总产卵量的50%。对2008年镇海棘螈繁殖量大幅下降的原因分析发现, 2007年9、10月影响严重台风的两次强台风、瑞岩寺景区开发等因素可能是造成近年该种群繁殖量大幅下降的原因。而2008年初50年不遇的低温是否影响镇海棘螈的繁殖值得进一步追踪研究。2009年繁殖量较2008年没有明显的增长，可能是由于2007年的台风影响了其繁殖营养的积累。台风的影响可能存在滞后现象,对此有待进一步监测证明。 本研究首次对中国蝾螈科物种进行的年龄结构鉴定，为进一步了解中国蝾螈科动物的种群生态打下了坚实的基础。 Using skeletochronology, we can know the life span of a species, age of reaching sexual mature, and of course age structure, which are vital(Morrison，et a1.，2004). Skeletochronology was performed on Echinotriton chinhaiensis Ruiyansi female population. The result shows that: The oldest individuals were 8 years old and the youngest ones were 3 years old. Individuals of age class 5(39.13%) and 6(21.74%) were most numerous. The number of individuals participated in reproduction decreased with the increase of age after the sixth year. Average age is 5.13 years. There is no correlation between age and body size (SVL and TL). For female chinhai salamander, energy is devoted to reproduction after reaching sexual maturation. While using skeletochronology to study Tylototriton taliangensis Liziping male population, the oldest individuals is 10 years old, and the youngest ones is 4 years old. Individuals of the age class 5, 6, and 7 dominat this population. The number of individuals decrease with the increase of age also after the seventh year. Average age is 6.7 years old in this population. there is also no correlation between age and body size (SVL and TL).It turned out that T. taliangensis tend to grow slowly after reaching sexual maturation. In this thesis, specimens from both wild and museum were used to gain enough toe clipping samples. A big sample size guarantees the reliability of this study. In the meantime, E. chinhaiensis’s annual reproduction of the year 1998, 1999, 2000 ,2008,and 2009 was compared. The result shows there is a huge decline in E. chinhaiensis’s annual reproduction in 2008,even the egg clutch is very stable. After analyzing, it turned out the huge decline in 2008 was probably caused by typhoon in 2007, besides the effect of tourism development and cash crop planting. While the impact of extreme weather of 2008 on reproduction needs further investigation. In the year 2009, there is no obvious increase in annual reproduction. It maybe due to lasting impact of typhoon in 2007. It is the first age-structure study on these two Chinese salamanders. A solid foundation was laid for further population ecology study of these two species.

Conversion of natural forests to managed forest plantations decreases tree resistance to prolonged droughts

© 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.Throughout the southern US, past forest management practices have replaced large areas of native forests with loblolly pine plantations and have resulted in changes in forest response to extreme weather conditions. However, uncertainty remains about the response of planted versus natural species to drought across the geographical range of these forests. Taking advantage of a cluster of unmanaged stands (85-130year-old hardwoods) and managed plantations (17-20year-old loblolly pine) in coastal and Piedmont areas of North Carolina, tree water use, cavitation resistance, whole-tree hydraulic (Ktree) and stomatal (Gs) conductances were measured in four sites covering representative forests growing in the region. We also used a hydraulic model to predict the resilience of those sites to extreme soil drying. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if Ktree and stomatal regulation in response to atmospheric and soil droughts differ between species and sites; (2) how ecosystem type, through tree water use, resistance to cavitation and rooting profiles, affects the water uptake limit that can be reached under drought; and (3) the influence of stand species composition on critical transpiration that sets a functional water uptake limit under drought conditions. The results show that across sites, water stress affected the coordination between Ktree and Gs. As soil water content dropped below 20% relative extractable water, Ktree declined faster and thus explained the decrease in Gs and in its sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit. Compared to branches, the capability of roots to resist high xylem tension has a great impact on tree-level water use and ultimately had important implications for pine plantations resistance to future summer droughts. Model simulations revealed that the decline in Ktree due to xylem cavitation aggravated the effects of soil drying on tree transpiration. The critical transpiration rate (Ecrit), which corresponds to the maximum rate at which transpiration begins to level off to prevent irreversible hydraulic failure, was higher in managed forest plantations than in their unmanaged counterparts. However, even with this higher Ecrit, the pine plantations operated very close to their critical leaf water potentials (i.e. to their permissible water potentials without total hydraulic failure), suggesting that intensively managed plantations are more drought-sensitive and can withstand less severe drought than natural forests.

Climate change and food safety: A review

Climate change and variability may have an impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of the food chain, from primary production through to consumption. There are multiple pathways through which climate related factors may impact food safety including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, and changes in contaminants’ transport pathways among others. Climate change may also affect socio-economic aspects related to food systems such as agriculture, animal production, global trade, demographics and human behaviour which all influence food safety. This paper reviews the potential impacts of predicted changes in climate on food contamination and food safety at various stages of the food chain and identifies adaptation strategies and research priorities to address food safety implications of climate change. The paper concludes that there is a need for intersectoral and international cooperation to better understand the changing food safety situation and in developing and implementing adaptation strategies to address emerging risks associated with climate change.