Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper we therefore contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

3D geoelectrical monitoring to follow hydric soil behaviour during rainfall

RESUME Durant les dernières années, les méthodes électriques ont souvent été utilisées pour l'investigation des structures de subsurface. L'imagerie électrique (Electrical Resistivity Tomography, ERT) est une technique de prospection non-invasive et spatialement intégrée. La méthode ERT a subi des améliorations significatives avec le développement de nouveaux algorithmes d'inversion et le perfectionnement des techniques d'acquisition. La technologie multicanale et les ordinateurs de dernière génération permettent la collecte et le traitement de données en quelques heures. Les domaines d'application sont nombreux et divers: géologie et hydrogéologie, génie civil et géotechnique, archéologie et études environnementales. En particulier, les méthodes électriques sont souvent employées dans l'étude hydrologique de la zone vadose. Le but de ce travail est le développement d'un système de monitorage 3D automatique, non- invasif, fiable, peu coûteux, basé sur une technique multicanale et approprié pour suivre les variations de résistivité électrique dans le sous-sol lors d'événements pluvieux. En raison des limitations techniques et afin d'éviter toute perturbation physique dans la subsurface, ce dispositif de mesure emploie une installation non-conventionnelle, où toutes les électrodes de courant sont placées au bord de la zone d'étude. Le dispositif le plus approprié pour suivre les variations verticales et latérales de la résistivité électrique à partir d'une installation permanente a été choisi à l'aide de modélisations numériques. Les résultats démontrent que le dispositif pôle-dipôle offre une meilleure résolution que le dispositif pôle-pôle et plus apte à détecter les variations latérales et verticales de la résistivité électrique, et cela malgré la configuration non-conventionnelle des électrodes. Pour tester l'efficacité du système proposé, des données de terrain ont été collectées sur un site d'étude expérimental. La technique de monitorage utilisée permet de suivre le processus d'infiltration 3D pendant des événements pluvieux. Une bonne corrélation est observée entre les résultats de modélisation numérique et les données de terrain, confirmant par ailleurs que le dispositif pôle-dipôle offre une meilleure résolution que le dispositif pôle-pôle. La nouvelle technique de monitorage 3D de résistivité électrique permet de caractériser les zones d'écoulement préférentiel et de caractériser le rôle de la lithologie et de la pédologie de manière quantitative dans les processus hydrologiques responsables d'écoulement de crue. ABSTRACT During the last years, electrical methods were often used for the investigation of subsurface structures. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) has been reported to be a useful non-invasive and spatially integrative prospecting technique. The ERT method provides significant improvements, with the developments of new inversion algorithms, and the increasing efficiency of data collection techniques. Multichannel technology and powerful computers allow collecting and processing resistivity data within few hours. Application domains are numerous and varied: geology and hydrogeology, civil engineering and geotechnics, archaeology and environmental studies. In particular, electrical methods are commonly used in hydrological studies of the vadose zone. The aim of this study was to develop a multichannel, automatic, non-invasive, reliable and inexpensive 3D monitoring system designed to follow electrical resistivity variations in soil during rainfall. Because of technical limitations and in order to not disturb the subsurface, the proposed measurement device uses a non-conventional electrode set-up, where all the current electrodes are located near the edges of the survey grid. Using numerical modelling, the most appropriate arrays were selected to detect vertical and lateral variations of the electrical resistivity in the framework of a permanent surveying installation system. The results show that a pole-dipole array has a better resolution than a pole-pole array and can successfully follow vertical and lateral resistivity variations despite the non-conventional electrode configuration used. Field data are then collected at a test site to assess the efficiency of the proposed monitoring technique. The system allows following the 3D infiltration processes during a rainfall event. A good correlation between the results of numerical modelling and field data results can be observed since the field pole-dipole data give a better resolution image than the pole-pole data. The new device and technique makes it possible to better characterize the zones of preferential flow and to quantify the role of lithology and pedology in flood- generating hydrological processes.

Stable isotope geochemistry and formation mechanisms of quartz veins; Extreme paleoaltitudes of the Central Alps in the Neogene

Quartz veins ranging in size from less than 50 cm length and 5 cm width to greater than 10 m in length and 5 m in width are found throughout the Central Swiss Alps. In some cases, the veins are completely filled with milky quartz, while in others, sometimes spectacular void-filling quartz crystals are found. The style of vein filling and size is controlled by host rock composition and deformation history. Temperatures of vein formation, estimated using stable isotope thermometry and mineral equilibria, cover a range of 450 degrees C down to 150 degrees C. Vein formation started at 18 to 20 Ma and continued for over 10 My. The oxygen isotope values of quartz veins range from 10 to 20 permil, and in almost all cases are equal to those of the hosting lithology. The strongly rock-buffered veins imply a low fluid/rock ratio and minimal fluid flow. In order to explain massive, nearly morromineralic quartz formation without exceptionally large fluid fluxes, a mechanism of differential pressure and silica diffusion, combined with pressure solution, is proposed for early vein formation. Fluid inclusions and hydrous minerals in late-formed veins have extremely low delta D values, consistent with meteoric water infiltration. The change from rock-buffered, static fluid to infiltration from above can be explained in terms of changes in the large-scale deformation style occurring between 20 and 15 Ma. The rapid cooling of the Central Alps identified in previous studies may be explained in part, by infiltration of cold meteoric waters along fracture systems down to depths of 10 km or more. An average water flux of 0.15 cm 3 cm(-2)yr(-1) entering the rock and reemerging heated by 40 degrees C is sufficient to cool rock at 10 km depth by 100 degrees C in 5 million years. The very negative delta D values of < -130 permil for the late stage fluids are well below the annual average values measured in meteoric water in the region today. The low fossil delta D values indicate that the Central Alps were at a higher elevation in the Neogene. Such a conclusion is supported by an earlier work, where a paleoaltitude of 5000 meters was proposed on the basis of large erratic boulders found at low elevations far from their origin.

Extreme Precipitation Modelling Using Geostatistics and Machine Learning Algorithms

The paper presents an approach for mapping of precipitation data. The main goal is to perform spatial predictions and simulations of precipitation fields using geostatistical methods (ordinary kriging, kriging with external drift) as well as machine learning algorithms (neural networks). More practically, the objective is to reproduce simultaneously both the spatial patterns and the extreme values. This objective is best reached by models integrating geostatistics and machine learning algorithms. To demonstrate how such models work, two case studies have been considered: first, a 2-day accumulation of heavy precipitation and second, a 6-day accumulation of extreme orographic precipitation. The first example is used to compare the performance of two optimization algorithms (conjugate gradients and Levenberg-Marquardt) of a neural network for the reproduction of extreme values. Hybrid models, which combine geostatistical and machine learning algorithms, are also treated in this context. The second dataset is used to analyze the contribution of radar Doppler imagery when used as external drift or as input in the models (kriging with external drift and neural networks). Model assessment is carried out by comparing independent validation errors as well as analyzing data patterns.

Extreme genetic differentiation among the remnant populations of marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) in Slovenia.

Populations of the marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) have declined critically due to introgression by brown trout (Salmo trutta) strains. In order to define strategies for long-term conservation, we examined the genetic structure of the 8 known pure populations using 15 microsatellite loci. The analyses reveal extraordinarily strong genetic differentiation among populations separated by < 15 km, and extremely low levels of intrapopulation genetic variability. As natural recolonization seems highly unlikely, appropriate management and conservation strategies should comprise the reintroduction of pure populations from mixed stocks (translocation) to avoid further loss of genetic diversity.

Analyse de la prise en charge médicale et de l'impact économique des patients ayant présentés des coûts extrêmes dans un hôpital universitaire [Analysis of the medical management and the economic impact of patients who have represented extreme costs at a university hospital]

Les coûts de traitement de certains patients s'avèrent extrêmement élevés, et peuvent faire soupçonner une prise en charge médicale inadéquate. Comme I'évolution du remboursement des prestations hospitalières passe à des forfaits par pathologie, il est essentiel de vérifier ce point, d'essayer de déterminer si ce type de patients peut être identifié à leur admission, et de s'assurer que leur devenir soit acceptable. Pour les années 1995 et 1997. les coûts de traitement dépassant de 6 déviations standard le coût moyen de la catégorie diagnostique APDRG ont été identifiés, et les dossiers des 50 patients dont les coûts variables étaient les plus élevés ont été analysés. Le nombre total de patients dont I'hospitalisation a entraîné des coûts extrêmes a passé de 391 en 1995 à 328 patients en 1997 (-16%). En ce qui concerne les 50 patients ayant entraîné les prises en charge les plus chères de manière absolue, les longs séjours dans de multiples services sont fréquents, mais 90% des patients sont sortis de l'hôpital en vie, et près de la moitié directement à domicile. Ils présentaient une variabilité importante de diagnostics et d'interventions, mais pas d'évidence de prise en charge inadéquate. En conclusion, les patients qualifiés de cas extrêmes sur un plan économique, ne le sont pas sur un plan strictement médical, et leur devenir est bon. Face à la pression qu'exercera le passage à un mode de financement par pathologie, les hôpitaux doivent mettre au point un système de revue interne de I'adéquation des prestations fournies basées sur des caractéristiques cliniques, s'ils veulent garantir des soins de qualité. et identifier les éventuelles prestations sous-optimales qu'ils pourraient être amenés à délivrer. [Auteurs] Treatment costs for some patients are extremely high and might let think that medical care could have been inadequate. As hospital financing systems move towards reimbursement by diagnostic groups, it is essential to assess whether inadequate care is provided, to try to identify these patients upon admission, and make sure that their outcome is good. For the years 1995 and 1997, treatment costs exceeding by 6 standard deviations the average cost of their APDRG category were identified, and the charts of the 50 patients with the highest variable costs were analyzed. The total number of patients with such extreme costs diminished from 391 in 1995 to 328 in 1997 (-16%). For the 50 most expensive patients, long stays in several services were frequent, but 90% of these patients left the hospital alive, and about half directly to their home. They presented an important variation in diagnoses and operations, but no evidence for inadequate care. Thus, patients qualified as extreme from an economic perspective cannot be qualified as such from a medical perspective, and their outcome is good. To face the pressure linked with the change in financing system, hospitals must develop an internal review system for assessing the adequacy of care, based on clinical characteristics, if they want to guarantee good quality of care and identify potentially inadequate practice.

p.L1612P, a novel voltage-gated sodium channel Nav1.7 mutation inducing a cold sensitive paroxysmal extreme pain disorder.

BACKGROUND: Mutations in the SCN9A gene cause chronic pain and pain insensitivity syndromes. We aimed to study clinical, genetic, and electrophysiological features of paroxysmal extreme pain disorder (PEPD) caused by a novel SCN9A mutation. METHODS: Description of a 4-generation family suffering from PEPD with clinical, genetic and electrophysiological studies including patch clamp experiments assessing response to drug and temperature. RESULTS: The family was clinically comparable to those reported previously with the exception of a favorable effect of cold exposure and a lack of drug efficacy including with carbamazepine, a proposed treatment for PEPD. A novel p.L1612P mutation in the Nav1.7 voltage-gated sodium channel was found in the four affected family members tested. Electrophysiologically the mutation substantially depolarized the steady-state inactivation curve (V1/2 from -61.8 ± 4.5 mV to -30.9 ± 2.2 mV, n = 4 and 7, P < 0.001), significantly increased ramp current (from 1.8% to 3.4%, n = 10 and 12) and shortened recovery from inactivation (from 7.2 ± 5.6 ms to 2.2 ± 1.5 ms, n = 11 and 10). However, there was no persistent current. Cold exposure reduced peak current and prolonged recovery from inactivation in wild-type and mutated channels. Amitriptyline only slightly corrected the steady-state inactivation shift of the mutated channel, which is consistent with the lack of clinical benefit. CONCLUSIONS: The novel p.L1612P Nav1.7 mutation expands the PEPD spectrum with a unique combination of clinical symptoms and electrophysiological properties. Symptoms are partially responsive to temperature but not to drug therapy. In vitro trials of sodium channel blockers or temperature dependence might help predict treatment efficacy in PEPD.

The bladder wall under extreme stress condition: ultrastructural observations in a hibernating mammal.

Comparative ultrastructural observations are presented of the distended bladder of a hibernating dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius) and a relaxed organ taken from an active animal. The distended bladder of the hibernating animal has an extremely thin wall lined with a three-layer urothelium. An osmiophilic coat lines the luminal surface of the urothelium in the hibernating animal, but it is very thin indeed in the specimen from the active dormouse. In the urothelium of the distended bladder, a larger number of fusiform vesicles (FVs, typical structures of the urothelium with asymmetric unit membrane) is found. On the contrary, lysosomes, multivesicular bodies, and interdigitation of plasma membrane between adjacent cells are all more frequent in the relaxed bladder of the active dormouse. Results suggest that hibernating animals can be a useful model for investigating the biology of epithelial cells in the mammalian bladder.