Ostrich egg-shell cups of Mesopotamia and the ostrich in ancient and modern times / by Berthold Laufer. 9 plates and 10 text-figures.

no.23(1926)

Thermal biology, activity, and population parameters of Cnemidophorus vacariensis (Squamata, Teiidae), a lizard endemic to southern Brazil

We investigated the following aspects of the biology of a population of Cnemidophorus vacariensis Feltrim & Lema, 2000 during the four seasons: thermal biology, relationship with the thermal environment, daily and seasonal activity, population structure and growth rate. Cnemidophorus vacariensis is restricted to rocky outcrops of the "campos de cima da serra" grasslands on the Araucaria Plateau, southern Brazil, and is currently listed as regionally and nationally threatened with extinction. Data were collected from October 2004 through September 2007 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Sampling was conducted randomly from 08:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. The capture-mark-recapture method was employed. The lizards were captured by hand, and their cloacal temperature, sex, snout-ventral length (SVL), mass, and the temperature of their microhabitat (substrate temperature and air temperature) were recorded. Individuals were then marked by toe-clipping and released at the site of capture. Body temperatures were obtained for 175 individuals, activity data for 96 individuals, and data on population structure and growth for 59 individuals. All data were obtained monthly, at different times of the day. Cnemidophorus vacariensis average body temperature was 23.84ºC, ranging between 9.6 and 38.2ºC. Temperatures ranged between 21 and 29ºC. The correlation between external heat sources, substrate and air were positive and significant and there was a greater correlation between lizard's temperature and the temperature of the substrate (tigmothermic species). The relatively low body temperatures of individuals are associated with the climate of their environment (altitude up to 1,400 m), with large variations in temperature throughout the day and the year, and low temperatures in winter. The average body temperature observed for C. vacariensis was low when compared with that of phylogenetically related species, suggesting that the thermal biology of this species reflects adaptations to the temperate region where it lives. The monthly rates of activity of lizards were related to monthly variations in the ambient temperatures. Our data suggest that the daily and seasonal activity of C. vacariensis result from the interaction between two factors: changes in the environment temperature and the relationship between individuals and their thermal environment. The population structure of C. vacariensis varied throughout the study period, with maximum biomass in January and maximum density in February (recruitment period). The sex ratio diverged from the expected 1:1. The growth analysis showed a negative relationship between the growth rate of individuals and the SVL, revealing that young individuals grow faster than adults, a typical pattern for short-lived species. The population studied showed a seasonal and cyclical variation associated with the reproductive cycle. The life strategy of C. vacariensis seems to include adaptations to the seasonal variations in temperature, typical of its environment.

Estudos sôbre o pneumococo: 4a. nota - Influência do pH do meio sôbre a formação da cápsula pelo pneumococo

One of the features of pneumococcus which has deserved the attention of investigators is the capsule. Since Pasteur, Chamberland and Roux (1881) several functions have been ascribed to it as well as peculiar properties. In the present paper, we take into consideration one only aspect of this problem; it is the relationship which there possibly may be between acidity of the culture medium and the power of capsule formation by pneumococcus. As it is known, this germ requires for its development 7.8 as an optimum pH, but maintains its biological activities down to 5.6. These variations do not take place without large alterations, particularly of the capsule, not only from the morphological but also from the chemical viewpoint. The diameter of the mucous envelopment of the pneumococcus decreases in proportion to the increase of acidity down to its complete extinction. This fact has been regarded by investigators as a biological feature inhe¬ring to the germ itself and as proceeding of self-defense. In an acid medium the existing capsule is destroyed and the germ does not produce it again; consequently, acidity inhibits the formation of the capsule. We tried to check how this phenomenon comes to pass and to elucidated it. As we know, the fundamental compound of the pneumococcus capsule is mucin. In the first place, we experimented the action of acidity on same in the following manner: Mucin extracted from bovine submaxillary gland is precipitated by HC1 at a determined concentration degree; the mucin dissolves again and precipi¬tates in function of this concentration. This property of mucin (solubility in acid medium) modifies a little the interpretation of the mechanism of disappearance of the capsule from the said germ in the culture medium. Indeed: The acidification of the medium consecutive to the growth of pneumococcus reduces the dimensions of the capsule until causing its com¬plete disappearance; but on transferring this strain to new optimum cultiva¬ting conditions the capsule appears again exhuberantly, at times as anteriorly, although with biased virulence. Linking these two facts we draw the following conclusions: Pneumo¬coccus does not lose its capacity of capsule formation in an acid medium; but mucin, whilst being produced, is entirely dissolved in this medium by the aid of acidity; we venture to state that, in spite of medium acidity, the capacity of capsule production is a constant feature of pneumococcus and that the disappearance of the capsule does not depend on the pneumococcus in itself when it produces smooth colonies, but on the chemical properties of mucin, mainly on its solubility in acid medium.

Analyse des risques d'extinction des populations naturelles

A review of extinction risk analysis and viability methods is presented. The importance of environmental, demographic and genetic uncertainties, as well as the role of catastrophes are successively considered, and different approaches aiming at the integration of these risk factors in predictive population dynamic models are discussed.

Structure du temps de travail des infirmières de santé publique: effets de l'âge des patients, de la nature des prestations fournies et du lieu du contact. [Structure of work times of public health nurses: effect of the age of patients, nature of care given and location of contact].

In the framework of health services research sponsored by the Swiss National Science Foundation, a research was undertaken of the activity of the large majority of the public health nurses working in the Swiss cantons of Vaud and Fribourg (total population 700,000). During one week, 130 nurses gathered, with a specially devised instrument, data on 4165 patient visits. Studying the duration of the contacts, one has distinguished contact duration per se (DC), duration of the travel time preceding the contact (DD), and total duration in relation with the contact (DTC-addition of the first two). It was noted that the three durations increased significantly with patient age (as regard travel time, this is explained by the higher proportion of home visits in higher age groups, as compared with visits at a health center). Examined according to location of the visit, contact duration per se (without travel) is higher for visits at home and in nursing homes than for those taking place at a health center. Looked at in respect to the care given (technical care, or basic nursing care, or both simultaneously), our data show that the provision of basic nursing care (alone or with technical care) doubles contact duration (from 20 to 42-45'). The analyses according to patient age shows that, at an advanced age (beyond 80 years particularly), there is an important increase of the visits where both types of care are given. However, contact duration per se shows a significant raise with age only for the group "technical care only"; it can be demonstrated that this is due to the fact that older patients require more complex technical acts (e.g., bladder care, as compared with simpler acts such as injection). A model of the relationships between patient age and contact duration is proposed: it is because of the increase in the proportions of home visits, of visits including basic nursing care, and of more complex technical acts that older persons require more of the working time of public health nurses.

Disentangling the effects of key innovations on the diversification of Bromelioideae (bromeliaceae).

The evolution of key innovations, novel traits that promote diversification, is often seen as major driver for the unequal distribution of species richness within the tree of life. In this study, we aim to determine the factors underlying the extraordinary radiation of the subfamily Bromelioideae, one of the most diverse clades among the neotropical plant family Bromeliaceae. Based on an extended molecular phylogenetic data set, we examine the effect of two putative key innovations, that is, the Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and the water-impounding tank, on speciation and extinction rates. To this aim, we develop a novel Bayesian implementation of the phylogenetic comparative method, binary state speciation and extinction, which enables hypotheses testing by Bayes factors and accommodates the uncertainty on model selection by Bayesian model averaging. Both CAM and tank habit were found to correlate with increased net diversification, thus fulfilling the criteria for key innovations. Our analyses further revealed that CAM photosynthesis is correlated with a twofold increase in speciation rate, whereas the evolution of the tank had primarily an effect on extinction rates that were found five times lower in tank-forming lineages compared to tank-less clades. These differences are discussed in the light of biogeography, ecology, and past climate change.

Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

Monetary Policy in Times of Financial Stress.

Some studies argue that the Fed reacts to financial market developments. Using data covering the period 1985:Q1 - 2008:Q4 and employing an augmented Taylor rule specification, we re-examine that conjecture. We find that evidence in favour of such a reaction is largely driven by the Fed’s behaviour during the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

MR spectroscopy of the human brain with enhanced signal intensity at ultrashort echo times on a clinical platform at 3T and 7T.

Recently, the spin-echo full-intensity acquired localized (SPECIAL) spectroscopy technique was proposed to unite the advantages of short TEs on the order of milliseconds (ms) with full sensitivity and applied to in vivo rat brain. In the present study, SPECIAL was adapted and optimized for use on a clinical platform at 3T and 7T by combining interleaved water suppression (WS) and outer volume saturation (OVS), optimized sequence timing, and improved shimming using FASTMAP. High-quality single voxel spectra of human brain were acquired at TEs below or equal to 6 ms on a clinical 3T and 7T system for six volunteers. Narrow linewidths (6.6 +/- 0.6 Hz at 3T and 12.1 +/- 1.0 Hz at 7T for water) and the high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the artifact-free spectra enabled the quantification of a neurochemical profile consisting of 18 metabolites with Cramér-Rao lower bounds (CRLBs) below 20% at both field strengths. The enhanced sensitivity and increased spectral resolution at 7T compared to 3T allowed a two-fold reduction in scan time, an increased precision of quantification for 12 metabolites, and the additional quantification of lactate with CRLB below 20%. Improved sensitivity at 7T was also demonstrated by a 1.7-fold increase in average SNR (= peak height/root mean square [RMS]-of-noise) per unit-time.

Political Competition in Hard Times

This paper analyzes a spatial model of political competition between two policy- motivated parties in hard times of crisis. Hard times are modeled in terms of policy- making costs carried by a newly elected party. The results predict policy divergence in equilibrium. If the ideological preferences of parties are quite diverse and extreme, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce symmetric platforms and each party wins with probability one half. If one party is extreme while the other is more moderate, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce asymmetric platforms. If the preferred policies of the parties are not very distinct, there are two equilibria with asymmetric platforms. An important property of equilibrium with asymmetric platforms is that a winning party necessarily announces its most preferred policy as a platform. JEL classification: D72. Keywords: Spatial model; Political competition; Two-party system; Policy-motivated parties; Hard times; Crisis.

Statistical tests for scaling in the inter-event times of earthquakes in California

We explore in depth the validity of a recently proposed scaling law for earthquake inter-event time distributions in the case of the Southern California, using the waveform cross-correlation catalog of Shearer et al. Two statistical tests are used: on the one hand, the standard two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is in agreement with the scaling of the distributions. On the other hand, the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic complemented with Monte Carlo simulation of the inter-event times, as done by Clauset et al., supports the validity of the gamma distribution as a simple model of the scaling function appearing on the scaling law, for rescaled inter-event times above 0.01, except for the largest data set (magnitude greater than 2). A discussion of these results is provided.