The capital gains from trade are not enough: Evidence from the environmental accounts of Venezuela and Mexico

In principle, a country can not endure negative genuine savings for longperiods of time without experiencing declining consumption. Nevertheless,theoreticians envisage two alternatives to explain how an exporter ofnon-renewable natural resources could experience permanent negativegenuine savings and still ensure sustainability. The first one allegesthat the capital gains arising from the expected improvement in theterms of trade would suffice to compensate for the negative savings ofthe resource exporter. The second alternative points at technologicalchange as a way to avoid economic collapse. This paper uses the dataof Venezuela and Mexico to empirically test the first of these twohypotheses. The results presented here prove that the terms oftrade do not suffice to compensate the depletion of oil reservesin these two open economies.

Transition probabilities and duration analysis among disability states: Some evidence from Spanish data

In this paper we study the disability transition probabilities (as well as the mortalityprobabilities) due to concurrent factors to age such as income, gender and education. Althoughit is well known that ageing and socioeconomic status influence the probability ofcausing functional disorders, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the combined effectof those factors along the individuals' life and how this affects the transition from one degreeof disability to another. The assumption that tomorrow's disability state is only a functionof the today's state is very strong, since disability is a complex variable that depends onseveral other elements than time. This paper contributes into the field in two ways: (1) byattending the distinction between the initial disability level and the process that leads tohis course (2) by addressing whether and how education, age and income differentially affectthe disability transitions. Using a Markov chain discrete model and a survival analysis, weestimate the probability by year and individual characteristics that changes the state of disabilityand the duration that it takes its progression in each case. We find that people withan initial state of disability have a higher propensity to change and take less time to transitfrom different stages. Men do that more frequently than women. Education and incomehave negative effects on transition. Moreover, we consider the disability benefits associatedto those changes along different stages of disability and therefore we offer some clues onthe potential savings of preventive actions that may delay or avoid those transitions. Onpure cost considerations, preventive programs for improvement show higher benefits thanthose for preventing deterioration, and in general terms, those focussing individuals below65 should go first. Finally the trend of disability in Spain seems not to change among yearsand regional differences are not found.

Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the US: Positive vs. negative or big vs. small?

This paper reconsiders the empirical evidence on the asymmetricoutput effects of monetary policy. Asymmetric effects is a common feature ofmany theoretical models, and there are many different versions of suchasymmetries. We concentrate on the distinctions between positive andnegative money-supply changes, big and small changes in money-supply, andpossible combinations of the two asymmetries. Earlier research has foundempirical evidence in favor of the former of these in US data. Using M1 asthe monetary variable we find evidence in favor of neutrality of big shocksand non-neutrality of small shocks. The results may, however, be affected bystructual instability of M1 demand. Thus, we substitute M1 with the federalfunds rate. In these data we find that only small negative shocks affectreal aggregate activity. The results are interpreted in terms of menu-costmodels.

Psychological pressure in competitive environments: Evidence from a randomized natural experiment

Much like cognitive abilities, emotional skills can have major effects on performance and economic outcomes. This paper studies the behavior of professionalsubjects involved in a dynamic competition in their own natural environment. Thesetting is a penalty shoot-out in soccer where two teams compete in a tournamentframework taking turns in a sequence of five penalty kicks each. As the kicking order is determined by the random outcome of a coin flip, the treatment and control groups are determined via explicit randomization. Therefore, absent any psychological effects, both teams should have the same probability of winning regardless of the kicking order. Yet, we find a systematic first-kicker advantage. Using data on 2,731 penalty kicks from 262 shoot-outs for a three decade period, we find that teams kicking first win the penalty shoot-out 60.5% of the time. A dynamic panel data analysis shows that the psychological mechanism underlying this result arises from the asymmetry in the partial score. As most kicks are scored, kicking first typically means having the opportunity to lead in the partial score, whereas kicking second typically means lagging in the score and having the opportunity to, at most, get even. Having a worse prospect than the opponent hinders subjects' performance.Further, we also find that professionals are self-aware of their own psychological effects. When a recent change in regulations gives winners of the coin toss the chance to choose the kicking order, they rationally react to it by systematically choosing to kick first. A survey of professional players reveals that when asked to explain why they prefer to kick first, they precisely identify the psychological mechanism for which we find empirical support in the data: they want to lead in the score inorder to put pressure on the opponent.

Separated by a common currency? Evidence from the Euro changeover

We study the price convergence of goods and services in the euro area in 2001-2002. To measure the degree of convergence, we compare the prices of around 220 items in 32 European cities. The width of the border is the price di¤erence attributed to the fact that the two cities are in different countries. We find that the 2001 European borders are negative, which suggests that the markets were very integrated before the euro changeover. Moreover, we do not identify an integration effect attributable to the introduction of the euro. We then explore the determinants of the European borders. We find that different languages, wealth and population differences tend to split the markets. Historical inflation, though, tends to lead to price convergence.

Migration across Spanish provinces: Evidence from the social security records (1978-1992)

This paper uses Social Security records to study internal migrationin Spain. This is the first paper that uses this data source, whichhas some advantages with respect to existing data sources: it includesonly job-seeking migrants and it allows to identify temporary migration. Within the framework of an extended gravity model, we estimate a Generalized Negative Binomial regression on gross migration flows between provinces. We quantify the effect of local labor market imbalances on workers' mobility and discuss the equilibrating role of internal migration in Spain. Our main results show that the effect of employment opportunities have changed after 1984; migrants seem to be more responsive to economic conditions but, consistently with previous studies for the Spanish labor market, the migration response to wage differentials is wrongly signed. Our analysis also confirms the larger internal mobility of highly qualified workers.

Endogeneous matching in university-industry collaboration: Theory and empirical evidence from the UK

We develop a two-sided matching model to analyze collaboration between heterogeneousacademics and firms. We predict a positive assortative matching in terms of both scientificability and affinity for type of research, but negative assortative in terms of ability on one sideand affinity in the other. In addition, the most able and most applied academics and the mostable and most basic firms shall collaborate rather than stay independent. Our predictionsreceive strong support from the analysis of the teams of academics and firms that proposeresearch projects to the UK's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Manganese-induced integrin affinity maturation promotes recruitment of alpha V beta 3 integrin to focal adhesions in endothelial cells: evidence for a role of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase and Src.

Integrin activity is controlled by changes in affinity (i.e. ligand binding) and avidity (i.e. receptor clustering). Little is known, however, about the effect of affinity maturation on integrin avidity and on the associated signaling pathways. To study the effect of affinity maturation on integrin avidity, we stimulated human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) with MnCl(2) to increase integrin affinity and monitored clustering of beta 1 and beta 3 integrins. In unstimulated HUVEC, beta 1 integrins were present in fibrillar adhesions, while alpha V beta 3 was detected in peripheral focal adhesions. Clustered beta 1 and beta 3 integrins expressed high affinity/ligand-induced binding site (LIBS) epitopes. MnCl(2)-stimulation promoted focal adhesion and actin stress fiber formation at the basal surface of the cells, and strongly enhanced mAb LM609 staining and expression of beta 3 high affinity/LIBS epitopes at focal adhesions. MnCl(2)-induced alpha V beta 3 clustering was blocked by a soluble RGD peptide, by wortmannin and LY294002, two pharmacological inhibitors of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI 3-K), and by over-expressing a dominant negative PI 3-K mutant protein. Conversely, over-expression of active PI 3-K and pharmacological inhibiton of Src with PP2 and CGP77675, enhanced basal and manganese-induced alpha V beta 3 clustering. Transient increased phosphorylation of protein kinase B/Akt, a direct target of PI 3K, occurred upon manganese stimulation. MnCl(2) did not alter beta 1 integrin distribution or beta1 high-affinity/LIBS epitope expression. Based on these results, we conclude that MnCl(2)-induced alpha V beta 3 integrin affinity maturation stimulates focal adhesion and actin stress fiber formation, and promotes recruitment of high affinity alpha V beta 3 to focal adhesions. Affinity-modulated alpha V beta 3 clustering requires PI3-K signaling and is negatively regulate by Src.

The influence of supplementary health insurance on switching behaviour: evidence from Swiss data.

This paper focuses on the switching behaviour of enrolees in the Swiss basic health insurance system. Even though the new Federal Law on Social Health Insurance (LAMal) was implemented in 1996 to promote competition among health insurers in basic insurance, there is limited evidence of premium convergence within cantons. This indicates that competition has not been effective so far, and reveals some inertia among consumers who seem reluctant to switch to less expensive funds. We investigate one possible barrier to switching behaviour, namely the influence of supplementary insurance. We use survey data on health plan choice (a sample of 1943 individuals whose switching behaviours were observed between 1997 and 2000) as well as administrative data relative to all insurance companies that operated in the 26 Swiss cantons between 1996 and 2005. The decision to switch and the decision to subscribe to a supplementary contract are jointly estimated.Our findings show that holding a supplementary insurance contract substantially decreases the propensity to switch. However, there is no negative impact of supplementary insurance on switching when the individual assesses his/her health as 'very good'. Our results give empirical support to one possible mechanism through which supplementary insurance might influence switching decisions: given that subscribing to basic and supplementary contracts with two different insurers may induce some administrative costs for the subscriber, holding supplementary insurance acts as a barrier to switch if customers who consider themselves 'bad risks' also believe that insurers reject applications for supplementary insurance on these grounds. In comparison with previous research, our main contribution is to offer a possible explanation for consumer inertia. Our analysis illustrates how consumer choice for one's basic health plan interacts with the decision to subscribe to supplementary insurance.

Strong time dependence of the 76-gene prognostic signature for node-negative breast cancer patients in the TRANSBIG multicenter independent validation series.

PURPOSE: Recently, a 76-gene prognostic signature able to predict distant metastases in lymph node-negative (N(-)) breast cancer patients was reported. The aims of this study conducted by TRANSBIG were to independently validate these results and to compare the outcome with clinical risk assessment. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Gene expression profiling of frozen samples from 198 N(-) systemically untreated patients was done at the Bordet Institute, blinded to clinical data and independent of Veridex. Genomic risk was defined by Veridex, blinded to clinical data. Survival analyses, done by an independent statistician, were done with the genomic risk and adjusted for the clinical risk, defined by Adjuvant! Online. RESULTS: The actual 5- and 10-year time to distant metastasis were 98% (88-100%) and 94% (83-98%), respectively, for the good profile group and 76% (68-82%) and 73% (65-79%), respectively, for the poor profile group. The actual 5- and 10-year overall survival were 98% (88-100%) and 87% (73-94%), respectively, for the good profile group and 84% (77-89%) and 72% (63-78%), respectively, for the poor profile group. We observed a strong time dependence of this signature, leading to an adjusted hazard ratio of 13.58 (1.85-99.63) and 8.20 (1.10-60.90) at 5 years and 5.11 (1.57-16.67) and 2.55 (1.07-6.10) at 10 years for time to distant metastasis and overall survival, respectively. CONCLUSION: This independent validation confirmed the performance of the 76-gene signature and adds to the growing evidence that gene expression signatures are of clinical relevance, especially for identifying patients at high risk of early distant metastases.

Experimental evidence that intra-specific competition in seagrass meadows reduces reproductive potential in the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck)

To better understand the biological controls that regulate sea urchin dynamics, we studied the effects of potential inter- and intra-specific competition for food on several biological variables of the main sea urchin in the Mediterranean (Paracentrotus lividus). We carried out a caging experiment in which we manipulated sea urchin density (natural vs. high density) and herbivorous fish (Sarpa salpa) accessibility (free access vs. exclusion) in a Posidonia oceanica meadow. No evidence of competition between fish and urchins was detected. Neither density-dependent mortality nor changes in the somatic variables were found; however, we detected that intra-specific competition affected the reproductive potential of P. lividus. The gonad index of urchins at high population densities was ca. 30% lower than that of urchins at natural densities. As a spawning event had just occurred when urchins were collected, these differences probably reflect differences in reserve content, which may compromise the following reproductive period and decrease survival in the long term, as the gonads are also used as storage organs. For the time period studied, mortality rates appeared to be independent of local densities. The results indicate that a long-term negative feedback mechanism appears to take place in P. lividus in response to increased population density.

Inhibition of estrogen-responsive gene activation by the retinoid X receptor beta: evidence for multiple inhibitory pathways.

The retinoid X receptor beta (RXR beta; H-2RIIBP) forms heterodimers with various nuclear hormone receptors and binds multiple hormone response elements, including the estrogen response element (ERE). In this report, we show that endogenous RXR beta contributes to ERE binding activity in nuclear extracts of the human breast cancer cell line MCF-7. To define a possible regulatory role of RXR beta regarding estrogen-responsive transcription in breast cancer cells, RXR beta and a reporter gene driven by the vitellogenin A2 ERE were transfected into estrogen-treated MCF-7 cells. RXR beta inhibited ERE-driven reporter activity in a dose-dependent and element-specific fashion. This inhibition occurred in the absence of the RXR ligand 9-cis retinoic acid. The RXR beta-induced inhibition was specific for estrogen receptor (ER)-mediated ERE activation because inhibition was observed in ER-negative MDA-MB-231 cells only following transfection of the estrogen-activated ER. No inhibition of the basal reporter activity was observed. The inhibition was not caused by simple competition of RXR beta with the ER for ERE binding, since deletion mutants retaining DNA binding activity but lacking the N-terminal or C-terminal domain failed to inhibit reporter activity. In addition, cross-linking studies indicated the presence of an auxiliary nuclear factor present in MCF-7 cells that contributed to RXR beta binding of the ERE. Studies using known heterodimerization partners of RXR beta confirmed that RXR beta/triiodothyronine receptor alpha heterodimers avidly bind the ERE but revealed the existence of another triiodothyronine-independent pathway of ERE inhibition. These results indicate that estrogen-responsive genes may be negatively regulated by RXR beta through two distinct pathways.

Brief DISCERN, six questions for the evaluation of evidence-based content of health-related websites.

OBJECTIVE: To extract and to validate a brief version of the DISCERN which could identify mental health-related websites with good content quality. METHOD: The present study is based on the analysis of data issued from six previous studies which used DISCERN and a standardized tool for the evaluation of content quality (evidence-based health information) of 388 mental health-related websites. After extracting the Brief DISCERN, several psychometric properties (content validity through a Factor analysis, internal consistency by the Cronbach's alpha index, predictive validity through the diagnostic tests, concurrent validity by the strength of association between the Brief DISCERN and the original DISCERN scores) were investigated to ascertain its general applicability. RESULTS: A Brief DISCERN composed of two factors and six items was extracted from the original 16 items version of the DISCERN. Cronbach's alpha coefficients were more than acceptable for the complete questionnaire (alpha=0.74) and for the two distinct domains: treatments information (alpha=0.87) and reliability (alpha=0.83). Sensibility and specificity of the Brief DISCERN cut-off score > or =16 in the detection of good content quality websites were 0.357 and 0.945, respectively. Its predictive positive and negative values were 0.98 and 0.83, respectively. A statistically significant linear correlation was found between the total scores of the Brief DISCERN and those of the original DISCERN (r=0.84 and p<0.0005). CONCLUSION: The Brief DISCERN seems to be a reliable and valid instrument able to discriminate between websites with good and poor content quality. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: The Brief DISCERN is a simple tool which could facilitate the identification of good information on the web by patients and general consumers.

Genetic evidence of heterogeneity in intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy

Background and aims: The aim of this study was to investigate the genetic aetiology of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) and the impact of known cholestasis genes (BSEP, FIC1, and MDR3) on the development of this disease. Patients and methods: Sixty nine Finnish ICP patients were prospectively interviewed for a family history of ICP, and clinical features were compared in patients with familial ICP (patients with a positive family history, n=11) and sporadic patients (patients with no known family history of ICP, n=58). For molecular genetic analysis, 16 individuals from two independently ascertained Finnish ICP families were genotyped for the flanking markers for BSEP, FIC1, and MDR3. Results: The pedigree structures in 16% (11/69) of patients suggested dominant inheritance. Patients with familial ICP had higher serum aminotransferase levels and a higher recurrence risk (92% v 40%). Both segregation of haplotypes and multipoint linkage analysis excluded BSEP, FIC1, and MDR3 genes in the studied pedigrees. Additionally, the MDR3 gene, previously shown to harbour mutations in ICP patients, was negative for mutations when sequenced in four affected individuals from the two families. Conclusions: These results support the hypothesis that the aetiology of ICP is heterogeneous and that ICP is due to a genetic predisposition in a proportion of patients. The results of molecular genetic analysis further suggest that the previously identified three cholestasis genes are not likely to be implicated in these Finnish ICP families with dominant inheritance.

First explicit criteria to decide on the appropriateness of therapy of ulcerative colitis: the European EPATUC panel

Background: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic disease with a wide variety of treatment options many of which are not evidence based. Supplementing available guidelines, which are often broadly defined, consensus-based and generally not tailored to specifically reflect the individual patient situation, we developed explicit appropriateness criteria to assist, and improve treatment decisions. Methods: We used the RAND appropriateness method which does not force consensus. An extensive literature review was compiled based on and supplementing, where necessary, the ECCO UC 2011 guidelines. EPATUC (endorsed by ECCO) was formed by 7 gastroenterologists, 2 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from throughout Europe. Clinical scenarios reflecting practice were rated on a 9-point scale from 1 (extremely inappropriate) to 9 (extremely appropriate), based on the expert's experience and the available literature. After extensive discussion, all scenarios were re-rated at a two-day panel meeting. Median and disagreement (D) were used to categorize ratings into 3 categories: appropriate (A), uncertain (U) and inappropriate (I). Results: 718 clinical scenarios were rated, structured in 13 main clinical presentations: not refractory (n = 64) or refractory (n = 33) proctitis, mild to moderate left-sided (n = 72) or extensive (n = 48) colitis, severe colitis (n = 36), steroid- dependant colitis (n = 36), steroid-refractory colitis (n = 55), acute pouchitis (n = 96), maintenance of remission (n = 248), colorectal cancer prevention (n = 9) and fulminant colitis (n = 9). Overall, 100 indications were judged appropriate (14%), 129 uncertain (18%) and 489 inappropriate (68%). Disagreement between experts was very low (6%). Conclusions: For the very first time, explicit appropriateness criteria for therapy of UC were developed that allow both specific and rapid therapeutic decision making and prospective assessment of treatment appropriateness. Comparison of these detailed scenarios with patient profiles encountered in the Swiss IBD cohort study indicates good concordance. EPATUC criteria will be freely accessible on the internet (epatuc.ch)