Drilling deeper: Understanding trade in Angola

The present study analyzes Angola’s trading partners from 2005 to 2015 in order to understand the main drivers of Exports and Imports growth. Departing from a gravity model, foreign GDP growth and real exchange rate fluctuations were interpreted as demand and supply disturbances on Exports. While nominal and real exports both increase with demand expansions, they react differently to supply shocks. Imports are growing at the same rate as Angola’s economy while exchange rate fluctuations capture the wealth effect of Oil price in the economy.

A high order model for piezoelectric rods: an asymptotic approach

Preprint submitted to International Journal of Solids and Structures. ISSN 0020-7683

60,000 years of interactions between Central and Eastern Africa documented by major African mitochondrial haplogroup L2

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplogroup L2 originated in Western Africa but is nowadays spread across the entire continent. L2 movements were previously postulated to be related to the Bantu expansion, but L2 expansions eastwards probably occurred much earlier. By reconstructing the phylogeny of L2 (44 new complete sequences) we provide insights on the complex net of within-African migrations in the last 60 thousand years (ka). Results show that lineages in Southern Africa cluster with Western/Central African lineages at a recent time scale, whereas, eastern lineages seem to be substantially more ancient. Three moments of expansion from a Central African source are associated to L2: (1) one migration at 70-50 ka into Eastern or Southern Africa, (2) postglacial movements (15-10 ka) into Eastern Africa; and (3) the southward Bantu Expansion in the last 5 ka. The complementary population and L0a phylogeography analyses indicate no strong evidence of mtDNA gene flow between eastern and southern populations during the later movement, suggesting low admixture between Eastern African populations and the Bantu migrants. This implies that, at least in the early stages, the Bantu expansion was mainly a demic diffusion with little incorporation of local populations.

The archaeogenetics of european ancestry

The archaeogenetics of Europe remains deeply controversial. Advances in ancient deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) analysis have suggested gene flow between Neanderthals and modern humans, who arrived in Europe <50 000 years ago, but have so far failed to support evolution of Neanderthals from a population of Homo heidelbergensis represented by remains in northern Spain. The extent to which European Mesolithic forager populations versus Neolithic pioneers from the Near East contributed to the extant gene pool of Europeans also continues to be contested. Whilst analyses of extant mitochondrial lineages have emphasised late Palaeolithic and Mesolithic expansions, ancient DNA (aDNA) results suggest significant Neolithic dispersals from the southern ‘refugial’ zone into the northern ‘bio-tidal’ zone. However, whether these had a primarily Near Eastern or North Mediterranean source remains a matter for debate. Meanwhile, aDNA has also begun to highlight an important role for later dispersals, especially during the late Neolithic, in shaping the European gene pool.

Fine time scaling of purifying selection on human nonsynonymous mtDNA mutations based on the worldwide population tree and mother-child pairs

A high-resolution mtDNA phylogenetic tree allowed us to look backward in time to investigate purifying selection. Purifying selection was very strong in the last 2,500 years, continuously eliminating pathogenic mutations back until the end of the Younger Dryas (∼11,000 years ago), when a large population expansion likely relaxed selection pressure. This was preceded by a phase of stable selection until another relaxation occurred in the out-of-Africa migration. Demography and selection are closely related: expansions led to relaxation of selection and higher pathogenicity mutations significantly decreased the growth of descendants. The only detectible positive selection was the recurrence of highly pathogenic nonsynonymous mutations (m.3394T>C-m.3397A>G-m.3398T>C) at interior branches of the tree, preventing the formation of a dinucleotide STR (TATATA) in the MT-ND1 gene. At the most recent time scale in 124 mother-children transmissions, purifying selection was detectable through the loss of mtDNA variants with high predicted pathogenicity. A few haplogroup-defining sites were also heteroplasmic, agreeing with a significant propensity in 349 positions in the phylogenetic tree to revert back to the ancestral variant. This nonrandom mutation property explains the observation of heteroplasmic mutations at some haplogroup-defining sites in sequencing datasets, which may not indicate poor quality as has been claimed.

Inactivation of PNKP by mutant ATXN3 triggers apoptosis by activating the DNA damage-response pathway in SCA3.

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 3 (SCA3), also known as Machado-Joseph disease (MJD), is an untreatable autosomal dominant neurodegenerative disease, and the most common such inherited ataxia worldwide. The mutation in SCA3 is the expansion of a polymorphic CAG tri-nucleotide repeat sequence in the C-terminal coding region of the ATXN3 gene at chromosomal locus 14q32.1. The mutant ATXN3 protein encoding expanded glutamine (polyQ) sequences interacts with multiple proteins in vivo, and is deposited as aggregates in the SCA3 brain. A large body of literature suggests that the loss of function of the native ATNX3-interacting proteins that are deposited in the polyQ aggregates contributes to cellular toxicity, systemic neurodegeneration and the pathogenic mechanism in SCA3. Nonetheless, a significant understanding of the disease etiology of SCA3, the molecular mechanism by which the polyQ expansions in the mutant ATXN3 induce neurodegeneration in SCA3 has remained elusive. In the present study, we show that the essential DNA strand break repair enzyme PNKP (polynucleotide kinase 3'-phosphatase) interacts with, and is inactivated by, the mutant ATXN3, resulting in inefficient DNA repair, persistent accumulation of DNA damage/strand breaks, and subsequent chronic activation of the DNA damage-response ataxia telangiectasia-mutated (ATM) signaling pathway in SCA3. We report that persistent accumulation of DNA damage/strand breaks and chronic activation of the serine/threonine kinase ATM and the downstream p53 and protein kinase C-d pro-apoptotic pathways trigger neuronal dysfunction and eventually neuronal death in SCA3. Either PNKP overexpression or pharmacological inhibition of ATM dramatically blocked mutant ATXN3-mediated cell death. Discovery of the mechanism by which mutant ATXN3 induces DNA damage and amplifies the pro-death signaling pathways provides a molecular basis for neurodegeneration due to PNKP inactivation in SCA3, and for the first time offers a possible approach to treatment.

A genetic perspective on African prehistory

The various genetic systems (mitochondrial DNA, the Y-chromosome and the genome-wide autosomes) indicate that Africa is the most genetically diverse continent in the world and the most likely place of origin for anatomically modern humans. However, where in Africa modern humans arose and how the current genetic makeup within the continent was shaped is still open to debate. Here, we summarize the debate and focus especially on the maternally inherited mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and a recently revised chronology for the African mtDNA tree. We discuss the possible origin of modern humans in southern, eastern or Central Africa; the possibility of a migration from southern to eastern Africa more than 100 ka, carrying lineages within mtDNA haplogroup L0; the evidence for a climate-change-mediated population expansion in eastern Africa involving mtDNA haplogroup L3, leading to the “out-of-Africa” migration around 70–60 ka; the re-population of North Africa from the Near East around 40–30 ka suggested by mtDNA haplogroups U6 and M1; the evidence for population expansions and dispersals across the continent at the onset of the Holocene ; and the impact of the Bantu dispersals in Central, eastern and southern Africa within the last few millennia.

Quantifying the legacy of the Chinese Neolithic on the maternal genetic heritage of Taiwan and Island Southeast Asia

There has been a long-standing debate concerning the extent to which the spread of Neolithic ceramics and Malay-Polynesian languages in Island Southeast Asia (ISEA) were coupled to an agriculturally driven demic dispersal out of Taiwan 4000 years ago (4 ka). We previously addressed this question using founder analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control-region sequences to identify major lineage clusters most likely to have dispersed from Taiwan into ISEA, proposing that the dispersal had a relatively minor impact on the extant genetic structure of ISEA, and that the role of agriculture in the expansion of the Austronesian languages was therefore likely to have been correspondingly minor. Here we test these conclusions by sequencing whole mtDNAs from across Taiwan and ISEA, using their higher chronological precision to resolve the overall proportion that participated in the "out-of-Taiwan" mid-Holocene dispersal as opposed to earlier, postglacial expansions in the Early Holocene. We show that, in total, about 20 % of mtDNA lineages in the modern ISEA pool result from the "out-of-Taiwan" dispersal, with most of the remainder signifying earlier processes, mainly due to sea-level rises after the Last Glacial Maximum. Notably, we show that every one of these founder clusters previously entered Taiwan from China, 6-7 ka, where rice-farming originated, and remained distinct from the indigenous Taiwanese population until after the subsequent dispersal into ISEA.

Dinámica y cinética de los procesos físicos y químicos del radical OH con compuestos orgánicos volátiles (COVs) de relevancia atmosférica. Dynamics and kinetics of the physical and chemical processes of OH radicals with atmospheric relevant volatile organic compounds (VOCs)

El objetivo del presente proyecto es estudiar los procesos físicos y químicos del radical OH con compuestos orgánicos volátiles (COVs), con los cuales sea factible la formación de agregados de van der Waals (vdW) responsables de la curvatura en los gráficos de Arrhenius, empleando técnicas modernas, complementarias entre si y novedosas en el país. El problema será abordado desde tres perspectivas complementarias: 1) estudios cinéticos, 2) estudios mecanísticos y de distribución de productos y 3) estudios de la dinámica de los procesos físicos y químicos. La finalidad es alcanzar una mejor comprensión de los mecanismos que intervienen en el comportamiento químico de especies presentes en la atmósfera y obtener datos cinéticos de alta calidad que puedan alimentar modelos computacionales capaces de describir la composición de la atmósfera, presente y futura. Los objetivos son estudiar: 1) mediante fotólisis láser pulsada con detección por fluorescencia inducida por láser (PLP-LIF), en reactores de flujo, la cinética de reacción del radical OH(v”=0) con COVs que presentan gráficos de Arrhenius curvos con energías de activación negativas, tales como alcoholes insaturados, alquenos halogenados, éteres halogenados, ésteres alifáticos; 2) en una cámara de simulación de condiciones atmosféricas de gran volumen (4500 L), la identidad y el rendimiento de productos de las reacciones mencionadas, a fines de evaluar su impacto atmosférico y dilucidar los mecanismos de reacción; 3) mediante haces moleculares y espectroscopía láser, la estructura y reactividad de complejos de vdW entre alcoholes insaturados o aromáticos (cresoles) y el radical OH, como modelo de los aductos propuestos como responsables de la desviación al comportamiento de Arrhenius de las reacciones mencionadas; 4) mediante PLP-LIF y expansiones supersónicas, las constantes específicas estado a estado (ksts) de relajación/reacción del radical OH(v”=1-4) vibracionalmente excitado con los COVs mencionados. Los resultados experimentales obtenidos serán contrastados con cálculos ab-initio de estructura electrónica, los cuales apoyarán las interpretaciones, permitirán proponer estructuras de estados de transición y aductos colisionales, como así también calcular las frecuencias de vibración de los complejos de vdW para su posterior asignación en los espectros LIF y REMPI. Asimismo, los mecanismos de reacción propuestos y los parámetros cinéticos medidos experimentalmente serán comparados con aquellos obtenidos por cálculos teóricos. The aim of this project is to study the physical and chemical processes of OH radicals with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with which the formation of van der Waals (vdW) clusters, responsible for the observed curvature in the Arrhenius plots, might be feasible. The problem will be addressed as follow : 1) kinetic studies; 2) products distribution and mechanistic studies and 3) dynamical studies of the physical and chemical processes. The purpose is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms that govern the chemical behavior of species present in the atmosphere and to obtain high quality kinetic data to be used as input to computational models. We will study: 1) the reaction kinetics of OH (v”=0) radicals with VOCs such as unsaturated alcohols, halogenated alkenes, halogenated ethers, aliphatic esters, which show curved Arrhenius plots and negative activation energies, by PLP-LIF, in flow systems; 2) in a large volume (4500 L) atmospheric simulation chamber, reaction products yields in order to evaluate their atmospheric impact and reaction mechanisms; 3) using molecular beams and laser spectroscopy, the structure and reactivity of the vdW complexes formed between the unsaturated or aromatic alcohols and the OH radicals as a model of the adducts proposed as responsible for the non-Arrhenius behavior; 4) the specific state-to-state relaxation/reaction rate constants (ksts) of the vibrationally excited OH (v”=1-4) radical with the VOCs by PLP-LIF and supersonic expansions. Ab-initio calculations will be carried out to support the interpretation of the experimental results, to obtain the transition state and collisional adducts structures, as well as to calculate the vibrational frequencies of the vdW complexes to assign to the LIF and REMPI spectra. Also, the proposed reaction mechanisms and the experimentally measured kinetic parameters will be compared with those obtained from theoretical calculations.

Non-classical error bounds in the central limit theorem

The classical central limit theorem states the uniform convergence of the distribution functions of the standardized sums of independent and identically distributed square integrable real-valued random variables to the standard normal distribution function. While first versions of the central limit theorem are already due to Moivre (1730) and Laplace (1812), a systematic study of this topic started at the beginning of the last century with the fundamental work of Lyapunov (1900, 1901). Meanwhile, extensions of the central limit theorem are available for a multitude of settings. This includes, e.g., Banach space valued random variables as well as substantial relaxations of the assumptions of independence and identical distributions. Furthermore, explicit error bounds are established and asymptotic expansions are employed to obtain better approximations. Classical error estimates like the famous bound of Berry and Esseen are stated in terms of absolute moments of the random summands and therefore do not reflect a potential closeness of the distributions of the single random summands to a normal distribution. Non-classical approaches take this issue into account by providing error estimates based on, e.g., pseudomoments. The latter field of investigation was initiated by work of Zolotarev in the 1960's and is still in its infancy compared to the development of the classical theory. For example, non-classical error bounds for asymptotic expansions seem not to be available up to now ...

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

Functional and histopathological identification of the respiratory failure in a DMSXL transgenic mouse model of myotonic dystrophy.

Acute and chronic respiratory failure is one of the major and potentially life-threatening features in individuals with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1). Despite several clinical demonstrations showing respiratory problems in DM1 patients, the mechanisms are still not completely understood. This study was designed to investigate whether the DMSXL transgenic mouse model for DM1 exhibits respiratory disorders and, if so, to identify the pathological changes underlying these respiratory problems. Using pressure plethysmography, we assessed the breathing function in control mice and DMSXL mice generated after large expansions of the CTG repeat in successive generations of DM1 transgenic mice. Statistical analysis of breathing function measurements revealed a significant decrease in the most relevant respiratory parameters in DMSXL mice, indicating impaired respiratory function. Histological and morphometric analysis showed pathological changes in diaphragmatic muscle of DMSXL mice, characterized by an increase in the percentage of type I muscle fibers, the presence of central nuclei, partial denervation of end-plates (EPs) and a significant reduction in their size, shape complexity and density of acetylcholine receptors, all of which reflect a possible breakdown in communication between the diaphragmatic muscles fibers and the nerve terminals. Diaphragm muscle abnormalities were accompanied by an accumulation of mutant DMPK RNA foci in muscle fiber nuclei. Moreover, in DMSXL mice, the unmyelinated phrenic afferents are significantly lower. Also in these mice, significant neuronopathy was not detected in either cervical phrenic motor neurons or brainstem respiratory neurons. Because EPs are involved in the transmission of action potentials and the unmyelinated phrenic afferents exert a modulating influence on the respiratory drive, the pathological alterations affecting these structures might underlie the respiratory impairment detected in DMSXL mice. Understanding mechanisms of respiratory deficiency should guide pharmaceutical and clinical research towards better therapy for the respiratory deficits associated with DM1.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada

VAR methods have been used to model the inter-relationships between inflows and outfl ows into unemployment and vacancies using tools such as impulse response analysis. In order to investigate whether such impulse responses change over the course of the business cycle or or over time, this paper uses TVP-VARs for US and Canadian data. For the US, we find interesting differences between the most recent recession and earlier recessions and expansions. In particular, we find the immediate effect of a negative shock on both in ow and out flow hazards to be larger in 2008 than in earlier times. Furthermore, the effect of this shock takes longer to decay. For Canada, we fi nd less evidence of time-variation in impulse responses.