981 resultados para Event studies
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The Borborema Province of NE Brasil comprises the central part of a wide Pan-African-Brasiliano orogenetic belt that formed as a consequence of late Neoproterozoic convergence and collision of the São Luis-West Africa craton and the São Francisco-Congo-Kasai cratons. New Sm Nd and U Pb results from the eastern part of this province help to define the basic internal architecture and pre-collisional history of this province, with particular emphasis on delineating older cratonic terranes, their fragmentation during the Mesoproterozoic, and their assembly into West Gondwana during the Pan African-Brasiliano orogeny at ca. 600 Ma. The region can be divided into three major geotectonic domains: a) Rio Piranhas-Caldas Brandão massif, with overlying Paleoproterozoic to Neoproterozoic supracrustal rocks, north of the Patos Lineament; b) the Archean to Paleoproterozoic São Francisco craton (SFC) to the south; and c) a complex domain of Paleoproterozoic to Archean basement blocks with several intervening Mesoproterozoic to Neoproterozoic fold belts in the center (south of Patos Lineament and north of SFC). The northern and central domains comprise the Borborema Province. Archean basement gneiss and Transamazonian granulite of northern SFC are exposed in the southern part of the central domain, underlying southern parts of the Sergipano fold belt. Basement in the Rio Piranhas massif appears to consist mostly of Transamazonian (2.1 to 2.2 Ga) gneissic rocks; Nd model ages (TDM) of ca. 2.6 Ga for 2.15 Ga gneisses indicate a substantial Archean component in the protoliths to these gneisses. The Caldas Brandão massif to the east yields both Transamazonian and Archean U Pb zircon and Nd (TDM) ages, indicating a complex architecture. Metasedimentary rocks of the Jucurutu Formation yield detrital zircons with original crystallization ages as young as 1.8 Ga, indicating that these rocks may be late Paleoproterozoic and correlate with other ca. 1.8 Ga cratonic supracrustal rocks in Brazil such as the Roraima Group and Espinhaço Group. Most metavolcanic and pre-Brasiliano granitic units of the Sergipano (SDS), Pajeú-Paraíba (SPP), Riacho Pontal (SRP), and Piancó-Alto Brígida (SPAB) fold belts in the central domain formed ~ 1.0 ± 0.1 Ga, based on U Pb ages of zircons. Nd model ages (TDM) for these same rocks, as well as Brasiliano granites intruded into them and large parts of the Pernambuco-Alagoas massif, are commonly 1.3-1.7 Ga, indicating that rocks of the fold belts were not wholly derived from either older (> 2.1 Ga) or juvenile (ca. 1.0 Ga) crust, but include mixtures of both components. A simple interpretation of Brasiliano granite genesis and the Nd data implies that there is no Transamazonian or Archean basement underlying large parts of these fold belts or of the Pernambuco-Alagoas massif. An exception is a belt of syenitic Brasiliano plutons (Syenitoid Line) and host gneisses between SPAB and SPP that clearly has a Transamazonian (or older) source. In addition, there are several smaller blocks of Archean to Transamazonian gneiss that can be defined within and among these fold belts. These blocks do not appear to constitute a continuous basement complex, but appear to be isolated older crustal fragments. Our data support a model in which ca. 1.0 Ga rifting was an important tectonic and crust-forming event along the northern edge of the São Francisco craton. Our data also show that significant parts of the Borborema Province are not remobilized Transamazonian to Archean crust, but that Mesoproterozoic crust is a major feature of the Province. There are several small remnants of older crust within the area dominated by Mesoproterozoic crust, suggesting that the rifting event created several small continental fragments that were later incorporated into the Brasiliano collisional orogen. We cannot at present determine if the Rio Piranhas-Caldas Brandão massifs and the older crustal blocks of the central domain were originally part of the São Francisco craton or whether some (or all) of them came from more exotic parts of the Proterozoic Earth. Finally, our data have not yet revealed any juvenile terranes of either Transamazonian or Brasiliano age. © 1995.
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Recent structural investigations and geochronological studies of rocks from the Médio Coreaú domain in the NW part of northeast Brazil's Borborema Province provide important constraints on the tectonic evolution of the region both preceeding and during the assembly of West Gondwana. Field observations of structural features and fabrics have revealed the presence of four distinct deformational phases in the MCD: D1, D2, D3 and D4. Only the early Paleoproterozoic gneisses record the D1 tectonic event and its preservation is cryptic owing to strong overprinting by the subsequent tectonic phases. The D2, D3 and D4 events affected younger supracrustal rocks and Neoproterzoic magmatic units, and U-Pb geochronological constraints show that all of these tectonic phases represent deformational events that occurred during Brasiliano collision between the West African craton and the NW part of the Borborema Province. The D2 phase, lasting between ca. 622 and 591 Ma, represents a frontal collision stage, which generated NW verging thrust-nappe systems, low-angle foliation, high-grade metamorphism and crustal anatexis. Transition to a strike-slip regime (D3) occurred at around 591 Ma when the region entered a phase of escape tectonics. During this time, the motion of crustal blocks towards NE and E was accommodated along numerous anastomosing shear zones. Syntectonic emplacement of granitoid plutons took place in transtensional domains of the shear zone system. The intrusion of late tectonic granitoids and rapid uplift and cooling of the orogen around 560 Ma as a result of D4 transpressional movements marked the end of the D3 transcurrent regime. These findings show that only the early Paleoproterozoic gneisses in the Médio Coreaú domain are polycyclic in nature. Rather than representing distinct orogenic events, the D2, D3 and D4 tectonic phases are a manifestation of progressive deformational events that developed in response to changes in the regional stress field during convergence and collision between the Borborema Province and its surrounding cratons.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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This work combines structural and geochronological data to improve our understanding of the mechanical behaviour of continental crust involving large amount of magma or partially melted material in an abnormally hot collisional belt. We performed a magnetic and geochronological (U/Pb) study on a huge tonalitic batholith from the Neoproterozoic Aracual belt of East Brazil to determine the strain distribution through space and time. Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility, combined with rock magnetism investigations, supports that the magnetic fabric is a good proxy of the structural fabric. Field measurements together with the magnetic fabrics highlight the presence in the batholith of four domains characterized by contrasted magmatic flow patterns. The western part is characterized by a gently dipping, orogen-parallel (similar to NS) magmatic foliation that bears down-dip lineations, in agreement with westward thrusting onto the Sao Francisco craton. Eastward, the magmatic foliation progressively turns sub-vertical with a lineation that flips from sub-horizontal to sub-vertical over short distances. This latter domain involves an elongated corridor in which the magmatic foliation is sub-horizontal and bears an orogen-parallel lineation. Finally the fourth, narrow domain displays sub-horizontal lineations on a sub-vertical magmatic foliation oblique (similar to N150 degrees E) to the trend of the belt. U/Pb dating of zircons from the various domains revealed homogeneity in age for all samples. This, together with the lack of solid-state deformation suggests that: 1) the whole batholith emplaced during a magmatic event at similar to 580 Ma, 2) the deformation occurred before complete solidification. and 3) the various fabrics are roughly contemporaneous. The complex structural pattern mapped in the studied tonalitic batholith suggests a 3D deformation of a slowly cooling, large magmatic body and its country rock. We suggest that the development of the observed 3D flow field was promoted by the low viscosity of the middle crust that turned gravitational force as an active tectonic force combining with the East-West convergence between the Sao Francisco and Congo cratons. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The research for this PhD project consisted in the application of the RFs analysis technique to different data-sets of teleseismic events recorded at temporary and permanent stations located in three distinct study regions: Colli Albani area, Northern Apennines and Southern Apennines. We found some velocity models to interpret the structures in these regions, which possess very different geologic and tectonics characteristics and therefore offer interesting case study to face. In the Colli Albani some of the features evidenced in the RFs are shared by all the analyzed stations: the Moho is almost flat and is located at about 23 km depth, and the presence of a relatively shallow limestone layer is a stable feature; contrariwise there are features which vary from station to station, indicating local complexities. Three seismic stations, close to the central part of the former volcanic edifice, display relevant anisotropic signatures with symmetry axes consistent with the emplacement of the magmatic chamber. Two further anisotropic layers are present at greater depth, in the lower crust and the upper mantle, respectively, with symmetry axes directions related to the evolution of the volcano complex. In Northern Apennines we defined the isotropic structure of the area, finding the depth of the Tyrrhenian (almost 25 km and flat) and Adriatic (40 km and dipping underneath the Apennines crests) Mohos. We determined a zone in which the two Mohos overlap, and identified an anisotropic body in between, involved in the subduction and going down with the Adiratic Moho. We interpreted the downgoing anisotropic layer as generated by post-subduction delamination of the top-slab layer, probably made of metamorphosed crustal rocks caught in the subduction channel and buoyantly rising toward the surface. In the Southern Apennines, we found the Moho depth for 16 seismic stations, and highlighted the presence of an anisotropic layer underneath each station, at about 15-20 km below the whole study area. The moho displays a dome-like geometry, as it is shallow (29 km) in the central part of the study area, whereas it deepens peripherally (down to 45 km); the symmetry axes of anisotropic layer, interpreted as a layer separating the upper and the lower crust, show a moho-related pattern, indicated by the foliation of the layer which is parallel to the Moho trend. Moreover, due to the exceptional seismic event occurred on April 6th next to L’Aquila town, we determined the Vs model for two station located next to the epicenter. An extremely high velocity body is found underneath AQU station at 4-10 km depth, reaching Vs of about 4 km/s, while this body is lacking underneath FAGN station. We compared the presence of this body with other recent works and found an anti-correlation between the high Vs body, the max slip patches and earthquakes distribution. The nature of this body is speculative since such high velocities are consistent with deep crust or upper mantle, but can be interpreted as a as high strength barrier of which the high Vs is a typical connotation.
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In dieser Arbeit werden geochronologische und isotopen-geochemische Daten zur Entwicklung der Zentralen Westlichen Karpathen präsentiert. Die Karpathen bilden die östliche Fortsetzung der Alpen und können in drei Alpine Grundgebirgsdecken unterteilt werden, von denen zwei, die Veporische und die Gemerische, bearbeitet wurden. In der Veporischen Einheit wurden polymetamorphe Grundgebirgseinheiten untersucht, um deren genaue Altersstellung zu definieren und sie isotopengeochemisch zu klassifizieren. Dagegen wurde in der der Gemerischen Einheit, welche die Veporische Einheit überlagert, ein spezialisierter S-Typ Granit im Detail untersucht, um die petrogenetischen Prozesse, die zur magmatischen Entwicklung dieses Granits geführt haben, zu identifizieren. U-Pb Datierungen an Zirkonen der Veporischen Grundgebirgseinheiten zeigen für die gesamte Veporische Einheit ordovizische Entsehungsalter an (440-470 Ma). Diese Datierungen revidieren publizierte kambrische Entstehungsalter dieses Grundgebirges. Die Isotopensignatur (epsilon Nd und 87Sr/86Sr) der ordovizischen Grundgebirgseinheiten, bestehend aus stark überprägten Amphiboliten und Gneissen, ist von der Signatur der sich im Norden anschliessenden Tatrischen Einheit gut unterscheidbar. Die Bleiisotopenzusammensetzung dieser Gesteine ist stark krustal geprägt und überschneidet sich mit der der Tatrischen Einheit. Zusammen mit den T-DM Altern sind diese Einheiten vergleichbar mit prävariskischen Einheiten der Alpen. Somit kann das ordovizische Grundgebirge zu den peri-Gondwana Terranen gezählt werden, die an einem aktiven Kontinentalrand im Norden von Gondwana gebildet wurden. In den Gesteinen der Veporischen Einheit wurde im Weiteren eine starke metamorphe überprägung und intensiver felsischer Magmatismus karbonischen Alters erkannt (320-350 Ma). Dieses Ereignis ist zeitgleich mit dem Magmatismus, welcher hauptsächlich in der sich im Norden anschliessenden Tatrischen Einheit beobachtet wird. Dieser gehört der variskischen Orogenese an. Intensive alpine Deformation und Metamorphose konnte in der südlichen Veporischen Einheit anhand der Einzelzirkondatierungen und der Isotopendaten der ordovizischen Einheiten nachgewiesen werden. Am Dlha Dolina Granit in der Gemerischen Einheit können starke Fraktionierungs- und Auto-Metasomatose-Effekte beobachtet werden. Durch die magmatische Fraktionierung wird eine Anreicherung der SEE erzeugt, wogegen die Metasomatose die SEE stark verarmt. Es kommt sogar zur Ausbildung eines Tetraden Effektes im SEE Muster, welche den starken Einfluss von Fluiden während der spät-magmatischen Phase belegt. Gesamtgesteins Pb-Pb Daten beschränken das minimale Intrusionsalter dieses Granites auf 240 Ma. Dieses Alter ist in guter übereinstimmung mit den Sr-Isotopendaten der magmatisch dominierten Gesteine, wohingegen die stark metasomatisch geprägten Gesteine ein zu radiogenes 87Sr/86Sri aufweisen. Während dieser Arbeit wurde intensiv mit der Blei-Isotopenzusammensetzung von Gesamtgesteinsproben gearbeitet. Um die Auswertung dieser Daten optimieren zu können wurde ein Computerscript für das GPL Programm Octave erstellt. Die Hauptaufgabe dieses Scripts besteht darin, Regressionen für geochronologische Anwendungen gemäss York (1969) zu berechnen. Ausserdem können mu und kappa-Werte für diese Regressionen berechnet und eine Hauptkomponentenanalyse, welche hilfreich für den Vergleich von zwei Datensätzen ist, durchgeführt werden. Am Ende der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die analytische Methode für einen Mikrowellen beschleunigten Säureaufschluss von granitoidem Material zur Bestimmung der Sr- und Nd-Isotopenzusammensetzung und der Elementkonzentrationen vorgestellt. Diese kombinierte Methode nutzt ein TIMS für die Sr und Nd Isotopenmessungen und eine Einzelkollektor-ICPMS zur Bestimmung der SEE, Rb und Sr Konzentrationen, welche mithilfe von relativen Sensitivitätsfaktoren gegenüber einem internen Standard quantifiziert werden. Diese Methode wird durch Messungen von internationalen Referenzmaterialien bewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine Reproduzierbarkeit von <10% für die Elementkonzentrationen und von <5% für Elementverhältnisse.
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The surface electrocardiogram (ECG) is an established diagnostic tool for the detection of abnormalities in the electrical activity of the heart. The interest of the ECG, however, extends beyond the diagnostic purpose. In recent years, studies in cognitive psychophysiology have related heart rate variability (HRV) to memory performance and mental workload. The aim of this thesis was to analyze the variability of surface ECG derived rhythms, at two different time scales: the discrete-event time scale, typical of beat-related features (Objective I), and the “continuous” time scale of separated sources in the ECG (Objective II), in selected scenarios relevant to psychophysiological and clinical research, respectively. Objective I) Joint time-frequency and non-linear analysis of HRV was carried out, with the goal of assessing psychophysiological workload (PPW) in response to working memory engaging tasks. Results from fourteen healthy young subjects suggest the potential use of the proposed indices in discriminating PPW levels in response to varying memory-search task difficulty. Objective II) A novel source-cancellation method based on morphology clustering was proposed for the estimation of the atrial wavefront in atrial fibrillation (AF) from body surface potential maps. Strong direct correlation between spectral concentration (SC) of atrial wavefront and temporal variability of the spectral distribution was shown in persistent AF patients, suggesting that with higher SC, shorter observation time is required to collect spectral distribution, from which the fibrillatory rate is estimated. This could be time and cost effective in clinical decision-making. The results held for reduced leads sets, suggesting that a simplified setup could also be considered, further reducing the costs. In designing the methods of this thesis, an online signal processing approach was kept, with the goal of contributing to real-world applicability. An algorithm for automatic assessment of ambulatory ECG quality, and an automatic ECG delineation algorithm were designed and validated.
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Urease is a nickel-dependent enzyme that catalyzes hydrolysis of urea in the last step of organic nitrogen mineralization. Its active site contains a dinuclear center for Ni(II) ions that must be inserted into the apo-enzyme through the action of four accessory proteins (UreD, UreE, UreF, UreG) leading to activation of urease. UreE, acting as a metallo-chaperone, delivers Ni(II) to the preformed complex of apo-urease-UreDFG and has the capability to enhance the GTPase activity of UreG. This study, focused on characterization of UreE from Sporosarcina pasteurii (SpUreE), represents a piece of information on the structure/mobility-function relationships that control nickel binding by SpUreE and its interaction with SpUreG. A calorimetric analysis revealed the occurrence of a binding event between these proteins with positive cooperativity and a stoichiometry consistent with the formation of the (UreE)2-(UreG)2 hetero-oligomer complex. Chemical Shift Perturbations induced by the protein-protein interaction were analyzed using high-resolution NMR spectroscopy, which allowed to characterize the molecular details of the protein surface of SpUreE involved in the complex formation with SpUreG. Moreover, backbone dynamic properties of SpUreE, determined using 15N relaxation analysis, revealed a general mobility in the nanoseconds time-scale, with the fastest motions observed at the C-termini. The latter analysis made it possible for the first time to characterize of the C-terminal portions, known to contain key residues for metal ion binding, that were not observed in the crystal structure of UreE because of disorder. The residues belonging to this portion of SpUreE feature large CSPs upon addition of SpUreG, showing that their chemical environment is directly affected by protein-protein interaction. Metal ion selectivity and affinity of SpUreE for cognate Ni(II) and non cognate Zn(II) metal ions were determined, and the ability of the protein to select Ni(II) over Zn(II), in consistency with the proposed role in Ni(II) cations transport, was established.
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Since historical times, coastal areas throughout the eastern Mediterranean are exposed to tsunami hazard. For many decades the knowledge about palaeotsunamis was solely based on historical accounts. However, results from timeline analyses reveal different characteristics affecting the quality of the dataset (i.e. distribution of data, temporal thinning backward of events, local periodization phenomena) that emphasize the fragmentary character of the historical data. As an increasing number of geo-scientific studies give convincing examples of well dated tsunami signatures not reported in catalogues, the non-existing record is a major problem to palaeotsunami research. While the compilation of historical data allows a first approach in the identification of areas vulnerable to tsunamis, it must not be regarded as reliable for hazard assessment. Considering the increasing economic significance of coastal regions (e.g. for mass tourism) and the constantly growing coastal population, our knowledge on the local, regional and supraregional tsunami hazard along Mediterranean coasts has to be improved. For setting up a reliable tsunami risk assessment and developing risk mitigation strategies, it is of major importance (i) to identify areas under risk and (ii) to estimate the intensity and frequency of potential events. This approach is most promising when based on the analysis of palaeotsunami research seeking to detect areas of high palaeotsunami hazard, to calculate recurrence intervals and to document palaeotsunami destructiveness in terms of wave run-up, inundation and long-term coastal change. Within the past few years, geo-scientific studies on palaeotsunami events provided convincing evidence that throughout the Mediterranean ancient harbours were subject to strong tsunami-related disturbance or destruction. Constructed to protect ships from storm and wave activity, harbours provide especially sheltered and quiescent environments and thus turned out to be valuable geo-archives for tsunamigenic high-energy impacts on coastal areas. Directly exposed to the Hellenic Trench and extensive local fault systems, coastal areas in the Ionian Sea and the Gulf of Corinth hold a considerably high risk for tsunami events, respectively.Geo-scientific and geoarcheaological studies carried out in the environs of the ancient harbours of Krane (Cefalonia Island), Lechaion (Corinth, Gulf of Corinth) and Kyllini (western Peloponnese) comprised on-shore and near-shore vibracoring and subsequent sedimentological, geochemical and microfossil analyses of the recovered sediments. Geophysical methods like electrical resistivity tomography and ground penetrating radar were applied in order to detect subsurface structures and to verify stratigraphical patterns derived from vibracores over long distances. The overall geochronological framework of each study area is based on radiocarbon dating of biogenic material and age determination of diagnostic ceramic fragments. Results presented within this study provide distinct evidence of multiple palaeotsunami landfalls for the investigated areas. Tsunami signatures encountered in the environs of Krane, Lechaion and Kyllini include (i) coarse-grained allochthonous marine sediments intersecting silt-dominated quiescent harbour deposits and/or shallow marine environments, (ii) disturbed microfaunal assemblages and/or (iii) distinct geochemical fingerprints as well as (iv) geo-archaeological destruction layers and (v) extensive units of beachrock-type calcarenitic tsunamites. For Krane, geochronological data yielded termini ad or post quem (maximum ages) for tsunami event generations dated to 4150 ± 60 cal BC, ~ 3200 ± 110 cal BC, ~ 650 ± 110 cal BC, and ~ 930 ± 40 cal AD, respectively. Results for Lechaion suggest that the harbour was hit by strong tsunami impacts in the 8th-6th century BC, the 1st-2nd century AD and in the 6th century AD. At Kyllini, the harbour site was affected by tsunami impact in between the late 7th and early 4th cent. BC and between the 4th and 6th cent. AD. In case of Lechaion and Kyllini, the final destruction of the harbour facilities also seems to be related to the tsunami impact. Comparing the tsunami signals obtained for each study areas with geo-scientific data from palaeotsunami events from other sites indicates that the investigated harbour sites represent excellent geo-archives for supra-regional mega-tsunamis.
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Simulation is an important resource for researchers in diverse fields. However, many researchers have found flaws in the methodology of published simulation studies and have described the state of the simulation community as being in a crisis of credibility. This work describes the project of the Simulation Automation Framework for Experiments (SAFE), which addresses the issues that undermine credibility by automating the workflow in the execution of simulation studies. Automation reduces the number of opportunities for users to introduce error in the scientific process thereby improvingthe credibility of the final results. Automation also eases the job of simulation users and allows them to focus on the design of models and the analysis of results rather than on the complexities of the workflow.
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In biostatistical applications interest often focuses on the estimation of the distribution of a time-until-event variable T. If one observes whether or not T exceeds an observed monitoring time at a random number of monitoring times, then the data structure is called interval censored data. We extend this data structure by allowing the presence of a possibly time-dependent covariate process that is observed until end of follow up. If one only assumes that the censoring mechanism satisfies coarsening at random, then, by the curve of dimensionality, typically no regular estimators will exist. To fight the curse of dimensionality we follow the approach of Robins and Rotnitzky (1992) by modeling parameters of the censoring mechanism. We model the right-censoring mechanism by modeling the hazard of the follow up time, conditional on T and the covariate process. For the monitoring mechanism we avoid modeling the joint distribution of the monitoring times by only modeling a univariate hazard of the pooled monitoring times, conditional on the follow up time, T, and the covariates process, which can be estimated by treating the pooled sample of monitoring times as i.i.d. In particular, it is assumed that the monitoring times and the right-censoring times only depend on T through the observed covariate process. We introduce inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) estimator of the distribution of T and of smooth functionals thereof which are guaranteed to be consistent and asymptotically normal if we have available correctly specified semiparametric models for the two hazards of the censoring process. Furthermore, given such correctly specified models for these hazards of the censoring process, we propose a one-step estimator which will improve on the IPCW estimator if we correctly specify a lower-dimensional working model for the conditional distribution of T, given the covariate process, that remains consistent and asymptotically normal if this latter working model is misspecified. It is shown that the one-step estimator is efficient if each subject is at most monitored once and the working model contains the truth. In general, it is shown that the one-step estimator optimally uses the surrogate information if the working model contains the truth. It is not optimal in using the interval information provided by the current status indicators at the monitoring times, but simulations in Peterson, van der Laan (1997) show that the efficiency loss is small.
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Behavioral studies suggest that women and men differ in the strategic elaboration of verbally encoded information especially in the absence of external task demand. However, measuring such covert processing requires other than behavioral data. The present study used event-related potentials to compare sexes in lower and higher order semantic processing during the passive reading of semantically related and unrelated word pairs. Women and men showed the same early context effect in the P1-N1 transition period. This finding indicates that the initial lexical-semantic access is similar in men and women. In contrast, sexes differed in higher order semantic processing. Women showed an earlier and longer lasting context effect in the N400 accompanied by larger signal strength in temporal networks similarly recruited by men and women. The results suggest that women spontaneously conduct a deeper semantic analysis. This leads to faster processing of related words in the active neural networks as reflected in a shorter stability of the N400 map in women. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that there is a selective sex difference in the controlled semantic analysis during passive word reading that is not reflected in different functional organization but in the depth of processing.
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Use of microarray technology often leads to high-dimensional and low- sample size data settings. Over the past several years, a variety of novel approaches have been proposed for variable selection in this context. However, only a small number of these have been adapted for time-to-event data where censoring is present. Among standard variable selection methods shown both to have good predictive accuracy and to be computationally efficient is the elastic net penalization approach. In this paper, adaptation of the elastic net approach is presented for variable selection both under the Cox proportional hazards model and under an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. Assessment of the two methods is conducted through simulation studies and through analysis of microarray data obtained from a set of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma where time to survival is of interest. The approaches are shown to match or exceed the predictive performance of a Cox-based and an AFT-based variable selection method. The methods are moreover shown to be much more computationally efficient than their respective Cox- and AFT- based counterparts.
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.