Equatorial Kelvin waves as revealed by EOS Microwave Limb Sounder observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses: Evidence for slow Kelvin waves of zonal wave number 3

[1] Temperature and ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the EOS Aura satellite are used to study equatorial wave activity in the autumn of 2005. In contrast to previous observations for the same season in other years, the temperature anomalies in the middle and lower tropical stratosphere are found to be characterized by a strong wave-like eastward progression with zonal wave number equal to 3. Extended empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the wave 3 components detected in the temperature anomalies correspond to a slow Kelvin wave with a period of 8 days and a phase speed of 19 m/s. Fluctuations associated with this Kelvin wave mode are also apparent in ozone profiles. Moreover, as expected by linear theory, the ozone fluctuations observed in the lower stratosphere are in phase with the temperature perturbations, and peak around 20–30 hPa where the mean ozone mixing ratios have the steepest vertical gradient. A search for other Kelvin wave modes has also been made using both the MLS observations and the analyses from one experiment where MLS ozone profiles are assimilated into the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data assimilation system via a 6-hourly 3D var scheme. Our results show that the characteristics of the wave activity detected in the ECMWF temperature and ozone analyses are in good agreement with MLS data.

A Possible Influence of Equatorial Winds on the September 2002 Southern Hemisphere Sudden Warming Event

The stratospheric sudden warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in September 2002 was unexpected for two reasons. First, planetary wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere is very weak, and midwinter warmings have never been observed, at least not since observations of the upper stratosphere became regularly available. Second, the warming occurred in a west phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere. This is unexpected because warmings are usually considered to be more likely in the east phase of the QBO, when a zero wind line is present in the winter subtropics and hence confines planetary wave propagation to higher latitudes closer to the polar vortex. At first, this evidence suggests that the sudden warming must therefore be simply a result of anomalously strong planetary wave forcing from the troposphere. However, recent model studies have suggested that the midwinter polar vortex may also be sensitive to the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere, the region dominated by the semiannual oscillation. In this paper, the time series of equatorial zonal winds from two different data sources, the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) and the Met Office assimilated dataset, are reviewed. Both suggest that the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere above 10 hPa were anomalously easterly in 2002. Idealized model experiments are described in which the modeled equatorial winds were relaxed toward these observations for various years to examine whether the anomalous easterlies in 2002 could influence the timing of a warming event. It is found that the 2002 equatorial winds speed up the evolution of a warming event in the model. Therefore, this study suggests that the anomalous easterlies in the 1–10-hPa region may have been a contributory factor in the development of the observed SH warming. However, it is concluded that it is unlikely that the anomalous equatorial winds alone can explain the 2002 warming event.

Convectively coupled equatorial waves in high resolution Hadley centre climate models

Current global atmospheric models fail to simulate well organised tropical phenomena in which convection interacts with dynamics and physics. A new methodology to identify convectively coupled equatorial waves, developed by NCAS-Climate, has been applied to output from the two latest models of the Met Office/Hadley Centre which have fundamental differences in dynamical formulation. Variability, horizontal and vertical structures, and propagation characteristics of tropical convection and equatorial waves, along with their coupled behaviour in the models are examined and evaluated against a previous comprehensive study of observations. It is shown that, in general, the models perform well for equatorial waves coupled with off-equatorial convection. However they perform poorly for waves coupled with equatorial convection. The vertical structure of the simulated wave is not conducive to energy conversion/growth and does not support the correct physical-dynamical coupling that occurs in the real world. The following figure shows an example of the Kelvin wave coupled with equatorial convection. It shows that the models fail to simulate a key feature of convectively coupled Kelvin wave in observations, namely near surface anomalous equatorial zonal winds together with intensified equatorial convection and westerly winds in phase with the convection. The models are also not able to capture the observed vertical tilt structure and the vertical propagation of the Kelvin wave into the lower stratosphere as well as the secondary peak in the mid-troposphere, particularly in HadAM3. These results can be used to provide a test-bed for experimentation to improve the coupling of physics and dynamics in climate and weather models.

Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. II: Annual and interannual variability

The annual and interannual variability of idealized, linear, equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere is investigated using the temperature and velocity fields from the ECMWF 15-year re-analysis dataset. Peak Kelvin wave activity occurs during solstice seasons at 100 hPa, during December-February at 70 hPa and in the easterly to westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase transition at 50 hPa. Peak Rossby-gravity wave activity occurs during equinox seasons at 100 hPa, during June-August/September-November at 70 hPa and in the westerly to easterly QBO phase transition at 50 hPa. Although neglect of wind shear means that the results for inertio-gravity waves are likely to be less accurate, they are still qualitatively reasonable and an annual cycle is observed in these waves at 100 hPa and 70 hPa. Inertio-gravity waves with n = 1 are correlated with the QBO at 50 hPa, but the eastward inertio-gravity n = 0 wave is not, due to its very fast vertical group velocity in all background winds. The relative importance of different wave types in driving the QBO at 50 hPa is also discussed. The strongest acceleration appears to be provided by the Kelvin wave while the acceleration provided by the Rossby-gravity wave is negligible. Of the higher-frequency waves, the westward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave appears able to contribute more to the acceleration of the 50 hPa mean zonal wind than the eastward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave.

Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. I: A novel detection method

Wavenumber-frequency spectral analysis and linear wave theory are combined in a novel method to quantitatively estimate equatorial wave activity in the tropical lower stratosphere. The method requires temperature and velocity observations that are regularly spaced in latitude, longitude and time; it is therefore applied to the ECMWF 15-year re-analysis dataset (ERA-15). Signals consistent with idealized Kelvin and Rossby-gravity waves are found at wavenumbers and frequencies in agreement with previous studies. When averaged over 1981-93, the Kelvin wave explains approximately 1 K-2 of temperature variance on the equator at 100 hPa, while the Rossby-gravity wave explains approximately 1 m(2)s(-2) of meridional wind variance. Some inertio-gravity wave and equatorial Rossby wave signals are also found; however the resolution of ERA-15 is not sufficient for the method to provide an accurate climatology of waves with high meridional structure.

A GCM study of the influence of equatorial winds on the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings

A full troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere global circulation model is used in a set of idealised experiments to investigate the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratospheric flow to improvements in the equatorial zonal winds. The model shows significant sensitivity to variability in the upper equatorial stratosphere, the imposition of SAO and QBO like variability in this region advances the timing of midwinter sudden warmings by about one month. Perturbations to the lower equatorial stratosphere are mainly found to influence early winter polar variability. These results suggest that it is important to pay attention to the capability of models to simulate realistic variability in the upper equatorial stratosphere.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

Equatorial waves in opposite QBO phases

A methodology for identifying equatorial waves is used to analyze the multilevel 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data for two different years (1992 and 1993) to investigate the behavior of the equatorial waves under opposite phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A comprehensive view of 3D structures and of zonal and vertical propagation of equatorial Kelvin, westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG), and n = 1 Rossby (R1) waves in different QBO phases is presented. Consistent with expectation based on theory, upward-propagating Kelvin waves occur more frequently during the easterly QBO phase than during the westerly QBO phase. However, the westward-moving WMRG and R1 waves show the opposite behavior. The presence of vertically propagating equatorial waves in the stratosphere also depends on the upper tropospheric winds and tropospheric forcing. Typical propagation parameters such as the zonal wavenumber, zonal phase speed, period, vertical wavelength, and vertical group velocity are found. In general, waves in the lower stratosphere have a smaller zonal wavenumber, shorter period, faster phase speed, and shorter vertical wavelength than those in the upper troposphere. All of the waves in the lower stratosphere show an upward group velocity and downward phase speed. When the phase of the QBO is not favorable for waves to propagate, their phase speed in the lower stratosphere is larger and their period is shorter than in the favorable phase, suggesting Doppler shifting by the ambient flow and a filtering of the slow waves. Tropospheric WMRG and R1 waves in the Western Hemisphere also show upward phase speed and downward group velocity, with an indication of their forcing from middle latitudes. Although the waves observed in the lower stratosphere are dominated by “free” waves, there is evidence of some connection with previous tropical convection in the favorable year for the Kelvin waves in the warm water hemisphere and WMRG and R1 waves in the Western Hemisphere, which is suggestive of the importance of convective forcing for the existence of propagating coupled Kelvin waves and midlatitude forcing for the existence of coupled WMRG and R1 waves.

The equatorial response to higher latitude forcing

The classic view, following Charney and Webster and Holton, is that significant midlatitude forcing of the Tropics can be expected only in regions with westerly winds in the upper troposphere because it is only in these regions that stationary Rossby waves will be able to propagate toward the equator. Here it is shown that higherlatitude forcing can project directly onto equatorial waves and give a significant tropical response in both easterly and westerly tropical flow. The equatorial response to higher-latitude forcing is considered in the context of a dry atmosphere and a localized higher-latitude forcing with eastward or westward phase speed. Previous ideas of the Doppler shifting of equatorial waves by zonal flows are extended to include consideration of a forcing involving a range of zonal wavenumbers. A Gill-type model suggests that there can be significant forcing of equatorial waves by either vorticity forcing or heating in higher latitudes. In agreement with the theory, the Kelvin wave response to eastward forcing is peaked at high frequencies/short periods but reduces only slowly with decreasing frequency. Primitive-equation experiments confirm the strong equatorial response associated with a deep Kelvin wave for forcing in midlatitudes. The response is strongest in the Eastern Hemisphere with its equatorial, upper-tropospheric easterlies. The possible importance of this equatorial response in the organization of large-scale, deep tropical convection and the initiation of the Madden–Julian oscillation is discussed. The ability of westward forcing in higher latitudes to trigger Rossby–gravity and Rossby waves is found in the primitive-equation model to be significant but rather less robust. These wave signatures are clearest in the lower troposphere. For shorter periods the Rossby–gravity wave dominates, and for upper-tropospheric forcing, downward and eastward wave activity propagation is seen. Upper-tropospheric westerlies are found to enhance the response.

Estimation of systematic error in an equatorial ocean model using data assimilation

Assimilation of temperature observations into an ocean model near the equator often results in a dynamically unbalanced state with unrealistic overturning circulations. The way in which these circulations arise from systematic errors in the model or its forcing is discussed. A scheme is proposed, based on the theory of state augmentation, which uses the departures of the model state from the observations to update slowly evolving bias fields. Results are summarized from an experiment applying this bias correction scheme to an ocean general circulation model. They show that the method produces more balanced analyses and a better fit to the temperature observations.

The influence of the QBO on the propagation of equatorial waves into the stratosphere

The variation of stratospheric equatorial wave characteristics with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is investigated using ECMWF Re-Analysis and NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The impact of the QBO phases on the upward propagation of equatorial waves is found to be consistent and significant. In the easterly phase, there is larger Kelvin wave amplitude but smaller westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) and n = 1 Rossby (R1) wave amplitude due to reduced propagation from the upper troposphere into the lower stratosphere, compared with the westerly phase. Differences in the wave amplitude exist in a deeper layer in summer than in winter, consistent with the seasonality of ambient zonal winds. There is a strong evidence of Kelvin wave amplitude peaking just below the descending westerly phase, suggesting that Kelvin waves act to bring the westerly phase downward. However, the corresponding evidence for WMRG and R1 waves is less clear. In the lower stratosphere there is zonal variation in equatorial waves. This reflects the zonal asymmetry of wave amplitudes in the upper troposphere, the source for the lower-stratospheric waves. In easterly winters the upper-tropospheric WMRG and R1 waves over the eastern Pacific region appear to be somewhat stronger compared to climatology, perhaps because of the accumulation of waves that are unable to propagate upward into the lower stratosphere. Vertical propagation features of these waves are generally consistent with theory and suggest a mixture of Doppler shifting by ambient flows and filtering. Some lower-stratosphere equatorial waves have a connection with preceding tropical convection, especially for Kelvin and R1 waves in winter.

Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO

The cold equatorial SST bias in the tropical Pacific that is persistent in many coupled OAGCMs severely impacts the fidelity of the simulated climate and variability in this key region, such as the ENSO phenomenon. The classical bias analysis in these models usually concentrates on multi-decadal to centennial time series needed to obtain statistically robust features. Yet, this strategy cannot fully explain how the models errors were generated in the first place. Here, we use seasonal re-forecasts (hindcasts) to track back the origin of this cold bias. As such hindcasts are initialized close to observations, the transient drift leading to the cold bias can be analyzed to distinguish pre-existing errors from errors responding to initial ones. A time sequence of processes involved in the advent of the final mean state errors can then be proposed. We apply this strategy to the ENSEMBLES-FP6 project multi-model hindcasts of the last decades. Four of the five AOGCMs develop a persistent equatorial cold tongue bias within a few months. The associated systematic errors are first assessed separately for the warm and cold ENSO phases. We find that the models are able to reproduce either El Niño or La Niña close to observations, but not both. ENSO composites then show that the spurious equatorial cooling is maximum for El Niño years for the February and August start dates. For these events and at this time of the year, zonal wind errors in the equatorial Pacific are present from the beginning of the simulation and are hypothesized to be at the origin of the equatorial cold bias, generating too strong upwelling conditions. The systematic underestimation of the mixed layer depth in several models can also amplify the growth of the SST bias. The seminal role of these zonal wind errors is further demonstrated by carrying out ocean-only experiments forced by the AOCGCMs daily 10-meter wind. In a case study, we show that for several models, this forcing is sufficient to reproduce the main SST error patterns seen after 1 month in the AOCGCM hindcasts.