Welfare epidemiology as a tool to assess the welfare impact of inherited defects on the pedigree dog population

The effect that breed standards and selective breeding practices have on the welfare of pedigree dogs has recently come under scrutiny from both the general public and scientific community. Recent research has suggested that breeding for particular aesthetic traits, such as tightly curled tails, highly domed skulls and short muzzles predisposes dogs with these traits to certain inherited defects, such as spina bifida, syringomyelia and brachycephalic airway obstruction syndrome, respectively. Further to this, there is a very large number of inherited diseases that are not related to breed standards, which are thought to be prevalent, partly as a consequence of inbreeding and restricted breeding pools. Inherited diseases, whether linked to conformation or not, have varying impact on the individuals affected by them, and affect varying proportions of the pedigree dog population. Some diseases affect few breeds but are highly prevalent in predisposed breeds. Other diseases affect many breeds, but have low prevalence within each breed. In this paper, we discuss the use of risk analysis and severity diagrams as means of mapping the overall problem of inherited disorders in pedigree dogs and, more specifically, the welfare impact of specific diseases in particular breeds.

Socio-economic inequalities in cerebral palsy prevalence in the United Kingdom: a register-based study

Evidence is unclear as to whether there is a socio-economic gradient in cerebral palsy (CP) prevalence beyond what would be expected from the socio-economic gradient for low birthweight, a strong risk factor for CP. We conducted a population-based study in five regions of the UK with CP registers, to investigate the relationship between CP prevalence and socio-economic deprivation, and how it varies by region, by birthweight and by severity and type of CP. The total study population was 1 657 569 livebirths, born between 1984 and 1997. Wards of residence were classified into five quintiles according to a census-based deprivation index, from Q1 (least deprived) to Q5 (most deprived). Socio-economic gradients were modelled by Poisson regression, and region-specific estimates combined by meta-analysis.

The prevalence of postneonatally acquired CP was 0.14 per 1000 livebirths overall. The mean deprivation gradient, expressed as the relative risk in the most deprived vs. the least deprived quintile, was 1.86 (95% confidence interval [95% CI 1.19, 2.88]). The prevalence of non-acquired CP was 2.22 per 1000 livebirths. For non-acquired CP the gradient was 1.16 [95% CI 1.00, 1.35]. Evidence for a socio-economic gradient was strongest for spastic bilateral cases (1.32 [95% CI 1.09, 1.59]) and cases with severe intellectual impairment (1.59 [95% CI 1.06, 2.39]). There was evidence for differences in gradient between regions. The gradient of risk of CP among normal birthweight births was not statistically significant overall (1.21 [95% CI 0.95, 1.54]), but was significant in two regions. There was non-significant evidence of a reduction in gradients over time.

The reduction of the higher rates of postneonatally acquired CP in the more socioeconomically deprived areas is a clear goal for prevention. While we found evidence for a socio-economic gradient for non-acquired CP of antenatal or perinatal origin, the picture was not consistent across regions, and there was some evidence of a decline in inequalities over time. The steeper gradients in some regions for normal birthweight cases and cases with severe intellectual impairment require further investigation.

The prevalence of celiac disease in Europe Results of a centralized international mass screening project

Although the prevalence of celiac disease (CD) has been extensively investigated in recent years, an accurate estimate of CD frequency in the European population is still lacking. The aims of this study were: 1) to establish accurately the prevalence of CD in a large sample of the European population (Finland, Germany, Italy, and UK), including both children and adults; and 2) to investigate whether the prevalence of CD significantly varies between different areas of the European continent.

A study of HPV 1, 2 and 4 antibody prevalence in patients presenting for treatment with cutaneous warts to general practitioners in N. Ireland

Three hundred and seventy-six patients attending their general practitioner with cutaneous warts at five health centres in Northern Ireland were screened for human papilloma virus (HPV) types 1 and 2 IgM antibody using an indirect immunofluorescence test. Eight-eight (23.4%) patients were positive for HPV type 1 IgM and 156 (41.5%) for HPV type 2 IgM. HPV 1 IgM antibody was significantly more likely to be associated with plantar warts than warts elsewhere (P less than 0.0001). HPV 2 IgM was present in 45 (34.1%) patients with plantar warts and 99 (45.6%) patients with warts at other sites (P = 0.1). Evidence of multiple infection by HPV types 1 and 2 was demonstrated by the finding of HPV 1 and 2 IgM antibodies in the sera of 16 (4.3%). HPV 4 was found in only 1 out of 30 biopsies and HPV 4 IgM was undetectable in 50 randomly chosen sera.

Drusen prevalence and pigmentary changes in Caucasians aged 18-54 years

Aims and Purpose The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence and characteristics of drusen and pigmentary changes in a middle-aged population.

Methods Retinal images from 500 individuals aged 18–54 years were included. The source of participants was two UK optometry practices. Retinal images were graded using the Wisconsin Age-Related
Maculopathy Grading System. However, owing to the relatively young age of the population studied, a new category of drusen of smaller size (o31.5mm) was introduced.

Results Drusen were identi?ed within the central macular grid in 91.48% of all gradable eyes and in 444 subjects. Drusen sized o31.5mm were present in 89.7% of eyes, drusen sized 431.5mm and o63mm were present in 45.9% of all eyes and drusen 463mm and o125mm were present in only 1.7% of eyes. No eye had drusen larger or equal to 125mm. Very few eyes (1.2%) showed pigmentary changes within the grid. Drusen load increased with increasing age, P o0.001.

Conclusions The frequency of drusen in a younger Caucasian population aged 18–54 years is high, with 91.48% of all gradable eyes having drusen. The most frequent drusen subtype was hard distinct drusen o31.5mm. No druse greater or equal in size to 125mm was seen. Pigmentary changes are rare. Eye(2012) 26, 1357–1362; doi:10.1038/eye.2012.165; published online 17 August 2012

Epidemiology of MPN: What Do We Know?

The myeloproliferative neoplasms, are characterised by overproduction of myeloid cells. Chronic myeloid leukaemia, polycythaemia vera, essential thrombocythaemia, myelofibrosis and the very rare disorders chronic neutrophilic leukaemia, chronic eosinophilic leukaemia not otherwise specified and mastocytosis are all included in the group. Incidence and prevalence rates reported in the worldwide literature are presented in this review. Survival data on each condition is described. Information on the aetiology of the disorders is discussed including body mass index, diet, smoking and alcohol, allergies, associated medical conditions, occupation and environmental exposures with focus on recent new studies. The aetiology of the myeloproliferative neoplasms remains unknown, and this review of the current state of knowledge highlights the need for further comprehensive research.

Hirschsprung's disease prevalence in Europe: A register based study

Background: Hirschsprung's disease is a congenital gut motility disorder, characterised by the absence of the enteric ganglion cells along the distal gut. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology of Hirschsprung's disease, including additional congenital anomalies, total prevalence, trends, and association with maternal age. Methods: Cases of Hirschsprung's disease delivered during 1980 to 2009 notified to 31 European Surveillance of Congenital Anomaly registers formed the population-based case-series. Prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated as the number of cases per 10,000 births. Multilevel Poisson regression was performed to investigate trends in prevalence, geographical variation and the association with maternal age. Results: There were 1,322 cases of Hirschsprung's disease among 12,146,210 births. The total prevalence was 1.09 (95% confidence interval, 1.03–1.15) per 10,000 births and there was a small but significant increase in prevalence over time (relative risk = 1.01; 95% credible interval, 1.00–1.02; p = 0.004). There was evidence of geographical heterogeneity in prevalence (p < 0.001). Excluding 146 (11.0%) cases with chromosomal anomalies or genetic syndromes, there were 1,176 cases (prevalence = 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.91–1.03 per 10,000 births), of which 137 (11.6%) had major structural anomalies. There was no evidence of a significant increased risk of Hirschsprung's disease in cases born to women aged ≥35 years compared with those aged 25 to 29 (relative risk = 1.09; 95% credible interval, 0.91–1.31; p = 0.355). Conclusion: This large population-based study found evidence of a small increasing trend in Hirschsprung's disease and differences in prevalence by geographic location. There was also no evidence of an association with maternal age.

Increasing Prevalence of Myopia in Europe and the Impact of Education

PURPOSE: To investigate whether myopia is becoming more common across Europe and explore whether increasing education levels, an important environmental risk factor for myopia, might explain any temporal trend.

DESIGN: Meta-analysis of population-based, cross-sectional studies from the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium.

PARTICIPANTS: The E(3) Consortium is a collaborative network of epidemiological studies of common eye diseases in adults across Europe. Refractive data were available for 61 946 participants from 15 population-based studies performed between 1990 and 2013; participants had a range of median ages from 44 to 78 years.

METHODS: Noncycloplegic refraction, year of birth, and highest educational level achieved were obtained for all participants. Myopia was defined as a mean spherical equivalent ≤-0.75 diopters. A random-effects meta-analysis of age-specific myopia prevalence was performed, with sequential analyses stratified by year of birth and highest level of educational attainment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Variation in age-specific myopia prevalence for differing years of birth and educational level.

RESULTS: There was a significant cohort effect for increasing myopia prevalence across more recent birth decades; age-standardized myopia prevalence increased from 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.6-18.1) to 23.5% (95% CI, 23.2-23.7) in those born between 1910 and 1939 compared with 1940 and 1979 (P = 0.03). Education was significantly associated with myopia; for those completing primary, secondary, and higher education, the age-standardized prevalences were 25.4% (CI, 25.0-25.8), 29.1% (CI, 28.8-29.5), and 36.6% (CI, 36.1-37.2), respectively. Although more recent birth cohorts were more educated, this did not fully explain the cohort effect. Compared with the reference risk of participants born in the 1920s with only primary education, higher education or being born in the 1960s doubled the myopia prevalence ratio-2.43 (CI, 1.26-4.17) and 2.62 (CI, 1.31-5.00), respectively-whereas individuals born in the 1960s and completing higher education had approximately 4 times the reference risk: a prevalence ratio of 3.76 (CI, 2.21-6.57).

CONCLUSIONS: Myopia is becoming more common in Europe; although education levels have increased and are associated with myopia, higher education seems to be an additive rather than explanatory factor. Increasing levels of myopia carry significant clinical and economic implications, with more people at risk of the sight-threatening complications associated with high myopia.

On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

Background: Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are associated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal.
Methods: We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) by using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status).
Results: We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% CI = 16%–25%) compared with 12% (11%–13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13%–24%) and 16% (15%–17%).
Conclusions: Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study.

Epidemiology of Dysglycemia in Pregnant Oklahoma American Indian Women

CONTEXT: Minority communities are disproportionately affected by diabetes, and minority women are at an increased risk for glucose intolerance (dysglycemia) during pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES: In pregnant American Indian women, the objectives of the study were to use current criteria to estimate the prevalence of first-trimester (Tr1) dysglycemia and second-trimester (Tr2) incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to explore new candidate measures and identify associated clinical factors.

DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study. In Tr1 we performed a 75-g, 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to determine the following: fasting insulin; homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance; serum 1,5-anhydroglucitol; noninvasive skin autofluorescence (SCOUT). We defined dysglycemia by American Diabetes Association and Endocrine Society criteria and as HbA1c of 5.7% or greater. In Tr2 in an available subset, we performed a repeat OGTT and SCOUT.

PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant American Indian women (n = 244 at Tr1; n = 114 at Tr2) participated in the study.

OUTCOMES: The prevalence of dysglycemia at Tr1 and incidence of GDM at Tr2 were measured.

RESULTS: At Tr1, one woman had overt diabetes; 36 (15%) had impaired glucose tolerance (American Diabetes Association criteria and/or abnormal HbA1c) and 59 (24%) had GDM-Tr1 (Endocrine Society criteria). Overall, 74 (30%) had some form of dysglycemia. Associated factors were body mass index, hypertension, waist/hip circumferences, SCOUT score, fasting insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. At Tr2, 114 of the Tr1 cohort underwent a repeat OGTT and SCOUT, and 26 (23%) had GDM. GDM-Tr2 was associated with increased SCOUT scores (P = .029) and Tr1 body mass index, waist/hip circumferences, diastolic blood pressure, fasting insulin, and triglyceride levels. Overall, dysglycemia at Tr1 and/or Tr2 affected 38% of the women.

CONCLUSIONS: Dysglycemia at some point during pregnancy was common among American Indian women. It was associated with features of insulin resistance and may confer long-term health risks for mother and child.

Issues in the epidemiology and population-based screening of primary angle-closure glaucoma

Among Caucasians, it is well known that 75-95% of primary glaucoma is due to open-angle glaucoma (POAG), with angle-closure (PACG) comprising only a very small minority of cases. These figures are reversed among other groups such as Asians and Eskimos, where PACG makes up 80-90% of primary glaucoma. Among Eskimos, the prevalence of PACG has been reported as 2-8%, as compared to 0.1% among Caucasians. It appears that a population tendency toward shallow anterior chambers may explain the excess burden of PACG morbidity. Among Asians, the prevalence of PACG is intermediate between Caucasians and Eskimos. Existing biometrical data do not show a clear tendency toward shallower anterior chambers among Asians. PACG may be screened for on a population basis by means of various techniques that estimate axial or limbal anterior chamber depth, measure intraocular pressure, or evaluate the optic disc or visual fields. Demographic information and medical and family history will also be of great importance in screening for PACG in large populations. Groups at increased risk for the disease include women, individuals over 50, first-degree relatives of PACG probands, and hyperopes.

Epidemiology, Patterns of Care, and Mortality for Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Intensive Care Units in 50 Countries

Importance Limited information exists about the epidemiology, recognition, management, and outcomes of patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

Objectives To evaluate intensive care unit (ICU) incidence and outcome of ARDS and to assess clinician recognition, ventilation management, and use of adjuncts—for example prone positioning—in routine clinical practice for patients fulfilling the ARDS Berlin Definition.

Design, Setting, and Participants The Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE) was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients undergoing invasive or noninvasive ventilation, conducted during 4 consecutive weeks in the winter of 2014 in a convenience sample of 459 ICUs from 50 countries across 5 continents.

Exposures Acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was ICU incidence of ARDS. Secondary outcomes included assessment of clinician recognition of ARDS, the application of ventilatory management, the use of adjunctive interventions in routine clinical practice, and clinical outcomes from ARDS.

Results Of 29 144 patients admitted to participating ICUs, 3022 (10.4%) fulfilled ARDS criteria. Of these, 2377 patients developed ARDS in the first 48 hours and whose respiratory failure was managed with invasive mechanical ventilation. The period prevalence of mild ARDS was 30.0% (95% CI, 28.2%-31.9%); of moderate ARDS, 46.6% (95% CI, 44.5%-48.6%); and of severe ARDS, 23.4% (95% CI, 21.7%-25.2%). ARDS represented 0.42 cases per ICU bed over 4 weeks and represented 10.4% (95% CI, 10.0%-10.7%) of ICU admissions and 23.4% of patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Clinical recognition of ARDS ranged from 51.3% (95% CI, 47.5%-55.0%) in mild to 78.5% (95% CI, 74.8%-81.8%) in severe ARDS. Less than two-thirds of patients with ARDS received a tidal volume 8 of mL/kg or less of predicted body weight. Plateau pressure was measured in 40.1% (95% CI, 38.2-42.1), whereas 82.6% (95% CI, 81.0%-84.1%) received a positive end-expository pressure (PEEP) of less than 12 cm H2O. Prone positioning was used in 16.3% (95% CI, 13.7%-19.2%) of patients with severe ARDS. Clinician recognition of ARDS was associated with higher PEEP, greater use of neuromuscular blockade, and prone positioning. Hospital mortality was 34.9% (95% CI, 31.4%-38.5%) for those with mild, 40.3% (95% CI, 37.4%-43.3%) for those with moderate, and 46.1% (95% CI, 41.9%-50.4%) for those with severe ARDS.

Conclusions and Relevance Among ICUs in 50 countries, the period prevalence of ARDS was 10.4% of ICU admissions. This syndrome appeared to be underrecognized and undertreated and associated with a high mortality rate. These findings indicate the potential for improvement in the management of patients with ARDS.

Epidemiology of multiple congenital anomalies in Europe: a EUROCAT population-based registry study.

BACKGROUND: This study describes the prevalence, associated anomalies, and demographic characteristics of cases of multiple congenital anomalies (MCA) in 19 population-based European registries (EUROCAT) covering 959,446 births in 2004 and 2010. METHODS: EUROCAT implemented a computer algorithm for classification of congenital anomaly cases followed by manual review of potential MCA cases by geneticists. MCA cases are defined as cases with two or more major anomalies of different organ systems, excluding sequences, chromosomal and monogenic syndromes. RESULTS: The combination of an epidemiological and clinical approach for classification of cases has improved the quality and accuracy of the MCA data. Total prevalence of MCA cases was 15.8 per 10,000 births. Fetal deaths and termination of pregnancy were significantly more frequent in MCA cases compared with isolated cases (p < 0.001) and MCA cases were more frequently prenatally diagnosed (p < 0.001). Live born infants with MCA were more often born preterm (p < 0.01) and with birth weight < 2500 grams (p < 0.01). Respiratory and ear, face, and neck anomalies were the most likely to occur with other anomalies (34% and 32%) and congenital heart defects and limb anomalies were the least likely to occur with other anomalies (13%) (p < 0.01). However, due to their high prevalence, congenital heart defects were present in half of all MCA cases. Among males with MCA, the frequency of genital anomalies was significantly greater than the frequency of genital anomalies among females with MCA (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Although rare, MCA cases are an important public health issue, because of their severity. The EUROCAT database of MCA cases will allow future investigation on the epidemiology of these conditions and related clinical and diagnostic problems.