Percolation and epidemic thresholds in clustered networks

We develop a theoretical approach to percolation in random clustered networks. We find that, although clustering in scale-free networks can strongly affect some percolation properties, such as the size and the resilience of the giant connected component, it cannot restore a finite percolation threshold. In turn, this implies the absence of an epidemic threshold in this class of networks, thus extending this result to a wide variety of real scale-free networks which shows a high level of transitivity. Our findings are in good agreement with numerical simulations.

Incidence and mortality from non-Hodgkin lymphoma in Europe: the end of an epidemic?

Non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHL) are among the few neoplasms whose incidence and mortality have been rising in Europe and North America over the last few decades. To update trends from NHL, we considered mortality data up to 2004 in several European countries, and for comparative purpose in the USA and Japan. We also analyzed patterns in incidence for selected European countries providing national data. In most European countries, NHL mortality rose up to the mid 1990s, and started to level off or decline in the following decade. The rates were, however, still increasing in eastern Europe. Overall, in the European Union, mortality from NHL declined from 4.3/100,000 to 4.1 in men and from 2.7 to 2.5 in women between the late 1990s and the early 2000s. Similarly, NHL mortality rates declined from 6.5/100,000 to 5.5 in US men and from 4.2 to 3.5 in US women. In most countries considered, NHL incidence rates rose up to 1995-99, while they tended to level off or decline thereafter, with particular favorable patterns in countries from northern Europe. Thus, the epidemic of NHL observed during the second half of the 20th century has now started to level off in Europe as in other developed areas of the world.

Secular changes of spinal canal dimensions in Western Switzerland: a narrowing epidemic?

STUDY DESIGN: Computed tomography-based anatomical study. OBJECTIVE: To study the secular changes in lumbar spinal canal dimensions. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Development of symptomatic lumbar spinal stenosis, among other factors, is related to the dimensions of the bony canal. The canal reaches its adult size early on in life. Several factors, including protein intake, may influence its final dimensions. As with increases in human stature from improvements of socioeconomic conditions, we hypothesized that adult bony canal size has also grown larger in recent generations. METHODS: This study analyzes computed tomographic reconstructions from 184 subjects performed for either trauma (n = 81) or abdominal pathologies (n = 103) and born either between 1940 and 1949 (n = 88) or 1970 and 1979 (n = 96). The cross-sectional area of the bony canal was digitally measured at the level of the pedicle (i.e., at a level not influenced by degenerative changes) for each lumbar vertebra. Intra- and interobserver reliability was assessed. RESULTS: Intra- and interobserver measurement reliability were excellent (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.87) and good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.61), respectively. Contrary to our hypothesis, the 1940-1949 generation patient group exhibited larger lumbar canals at all levels as compared with the 1970-1979 group. Statistically this difference was highly significant (P < 0.001) and particularly pronounced in the trauma subgroup. CONCLUSION: Given that human stature evolution has stabilized and adult height is established during the first 2 years of long bone growth, it is possible that antenatal factors are responsible for this surprising finding. Maternal smoking and age may be possible explanations. This finding may have significant implications. An increasing number of patients may emerge with lumbar spinal stenosis as degenerative changes develop, putting a strain on health resources. Further studies in different population groups and countries will be important to further confirm this trend. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.

Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

Misconceptions about fructose-containing sugars and their role in the obesity epidemic.

A causal role of fructose intake in the aetiology of the global obesity epidemic has been proposed in recent years. This proposition, however, rests on controversial interpretations of two distinct lines of research. On one hand, in mechanistic intervention studies, detrimental metabolic effects have been observed after excessive isolated fructose intakes in animals and human subjects. On the other hand, food disappearance data indicate that fructose consumption from added sugars has increased over the past decades and paralleled the increase in obesity. Both lines of research are presently insufficient to demonstrate a causal role of fructose in metabolic diseases, however. Most mechanistic intervention studies were performed on subjects fed large amounts of pure fructose, while fructose is ordinarily ingested together with glucose. The use of food disappearance data does not accurately reflect food consumption, and hence cannot be used as evidence of a causal link between fructose intake and obesity. Based on a thorough review of the literature, we demonstrate that fructose, as commonly consumed in mixed carbohydrate sources, does not exert specific metabolic effects that can account for an increase in body weight. Consequently, public health recommendations and policies aiming at reducing fructose consumption only, without additional diet and lifestyle targets, would be disputable and impractical. Although the available evidence indicates that the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is associated with body-weight gain, and it may be that fructose is among the main constituents of these beverages, energy overconsumption is much more important to consider in terms of the obesity epidemic.

The EuroSIDA study: Regional differences in the HIV-1 epidemic and treatment response to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected patients across Europe--a review of published results.

EuroSIDA is a pan-European observational study that follows 14,265 HIV-infected patients from 31 European countries, Israel and Argentina, of which 2,560 are patients from eastern Europe (EE). The study group has performed several analyses addressing regional differences in the HIV-epidemic across Europe, where all countries were divided into five regions: south, west central, north, east central Europe and EE. Significant regional differences in patients' characteristics and pattern of AIDS diagnoses were documented. More patients from EE were diagnosed with tuberculosis compared to other regions. Significantly fewer HIV-infected patients in EE, who fulfilled the criteria for starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), actually received cART as compared with other regions of Europe. Those, receiving cART in EE had a lower initial virologic response rate irrespectively of the regimen used, although it has improved within years. Besides, treatment failure was more common in this region. Thus, improvements in the clinical management of HIV patients in EE are urgently needed. Strategies include creating scientific collaborations for HIV clinicians as well as teaching clinicians about the most advanced HIV management at clinically oriented courses held in eastern Europe.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: phylogenetic relatedness between European epidemic clones and Swiss sporadic strains.

We have compared the phylogenetic diversity of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) strains from Switzerland and their phylogenetic relationships with European epidemic clones, using multiprimer random amplification polymorphic DNA (RAPD). Strains included 24 European epidemic clones (59 strains), 66 sporadic strains isolated in Switzerland in 1996-1997, and 15 reference strains of five other Staphylococcus species. Similarity and clustering analysis with the Jaccard's coefficient showed that the maximum genetic distance between MRSA strains was 0.43, whereas the minimum genetic distance between the six Staphylococcus species was 0.97, indicating that the method permits phylogenetic hierarchization. The 24 MRSA clones reported to be epidemic in European countries during the 1990s were distributed into seven different genetic clusters with a maximum distance of 0.29 among them. This clustering pattern was confirmed by the analysis of a subset of MRSA strains by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis at 12 loci. Most of the sporadic Swiss strains were distributed into these seven different genetic clusters, together with the epidemic MRSA clones. This suggests that there is no phylogenetic cluster specific to epidemic clones of MRSA.

Nature of the Epidemic Threshold for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Dynamics in Networks

We develop an analytical approach to the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model that allows us to unravel the true origin of the absence of an epidemic threshold in heterogeneous networks. We find that a delicate balance between the number of high degree nodes in the network and the topological distance between them dictates the existence or absence of such a threshold. In particular, small-world random networks with a degree distribution decaying slower than an exponential have a vanishing epidemic threshold in the thermodynamic limit.

Statistical Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model

This thesis was focussed on statistical analysis methods and proposes the use of Bayesian inference to extract information contained in experimental data by estimating Ebola model parameters. The model is a system of differential equations expressing the behavior and dynamics of Ebola. Two sets of data (onset and death data) were both used to estimate parameters, which has not been done by previous researchers in (Chowell, 2004). To be able to use both data, a new version of the model has been built. Model parameters have been estimated and then used to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. Estimates of the parameters were useful to determine how well the model fits the data and how good estimates were, in terms of the information they provided about the possible relationship between variables. The solution showed that Ebola model fits the observed onset data at 98.95% and the observed death data at 93.6%. Since Bayesian inference can not be performed analytically, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate samples from the posterior distribution over parameters. Samples have been used to check the accuracy of the model and other characteristics of the target posteriors.

Connections: can the 20th century coronary heart disease epidemic reveal something about the 1918 influenza lethality?

This essay proposes that the ecologic association shown between the 20th century coronary heart disease epidemic and the 1918 influenza pandemic could shed light on the mechanism associated with the high lethality of the latter. It suggests that an autoimmune interference at the apoB-LDL interface could explain both hypercholesterolemia and inflammation (through interference with the cellular metabolism of arachidonic acid). Autoimmune inflammation, then, would explain the 1950s-60s acute coronary events (coronary thrombosis upon influenza re-infection) and the respiratory failure seen among young adults in 1918. This hypothesis also argues that the lethality of the 1918 pandemic may have not depended so much on the 1918 virus as on an immune vulnerability to it, possibly resulting from an earlier priming of cohorts born around 1890 by the 1890 influenza pandemic virus.