Fit genotypes and escape variants of subgroup III Neisseria meningitidis during three pandemics of epidemic meningitis

The genetic variability at six polymorphic loci was examined within a global collection of 502 isolates of subgroup III, serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis. Nine “genoclouds” were identified, consisting of genotypes that were isolated repeatedly plus 48 descendent genotypes that were isolated rarely. These genoclouds have caused three pandemic waves of disease since the mid-1960s, the most recent of which was imported from East Asia to Europe and Africa in the mid-1990s. Many of the genotypes are escape variants, resulting from positive selection that we attribute to herd immunity. Despite positive selection, most escape variants are less fit than their parents and are lost because of competition and bottlenecks during spread from country to country. Competition between fit genotypes results in dramatic changes in population composition over short time periods.

Evolutionary genomics of Staphylococcus aureus: Insights into the origin of methicillin-resistant strains and the toxic shock syndrome epidemic

An emerging theme in medical microbiology is that extensive variation exists in gene content among strains of many pathogenic bacterial species. However, this topic has not been investigated on a genome scale with strains recovered from patients with well-defined clinical conditions. Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen and also causes economically important infections in cows and sheep. A DNA microarray representing >90% of the S. aureus genome was used to characterize genomic diversity, evolutionary relationships, and virulence gene distribution among 36 strains of divergent clonal lineages, including methicillin-resistant strains and organisms causing toxic shock syndrome. Genetic variation in S. aureus is very extensive, with ≈22% of the genome comprised of dispensable genetic material. Eighteen large regions of difference were identified, and 10 of these regions have genes that encode putative virulence factors or proteins mediating antibiotic resistance. We find that lateral gene transfer has played a fundamental role in the evolution of S. aureus. The mec gene has been horizontally transferred into distinct S. aureus chromosomal backgrounds at least five times, demonstrating that methicillin-resistant strains have evolved multiple independent times, rather than from a single ancestral strain. This finding resolves a long-standing controversy in S. aureus research. The epidemic of toxic shock syndrome that occurred in the 1970s was caused by a change in the host environment, rather than rapid geographic dissemination of a new hypervirulent strain. DNA microarray analysis of large samples of clinically characterized strains provides broad insights into evolution, pathogenesis, and disease emergence.

Emergence of a new epidemic/epizootic Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus in South America.

One of the most important questions in arbovirology concerns the origin of epidemic Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) viruses; these viruses caused periodic, extensive epidemics/epizootics in the Americas from 1938-1973 (reaching the United States in 1971) but had recently been presumed extinct. We have documented the 1992 emergence of a new epidemic/epizootic VEE virus in Venezuela. Phylogenetic analysis of strains isolated during two outbreaks indicated that the new epidemic/epizootic virus(es) evolved recently from an enzootic VEE virus in northern South America. These results suggest continued emergence of epizootic VEE viruses; surveillance of enzootic viruses and routine vaccination of equines should therefore be resumed.

Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

On the time to reach a critical number of infections in epidemic models with infective and susceptible immigrants.

In this paper we examine the time T to reach a critical number K0 of infections during an outbreak in an epidemic model with infective and susceptible immigrants. The underlying process X, which was first introduced by Ridler-Rowe (1967), is related to recurrent diseases and it appears to be analytically intractable. We present an approximating model inspired from the use of extreme values, and we derive formulae for the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of T and its moments, which are evaluated by using an iterative procedure. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effects of the contact and removal rates on the expected values of T and the threshold K0, when the initial time instant corresponds to an invasion time. We also study the exact reproduction number Rexact,0 and the population transmission number Rp, which are random versions of the basic reproduction number R0.

The SEIQS stochastic epidemic model with external source of infection

This paper deals with a stochastic epidemic model for computer viruses with latent and quarantine periods, and two sources of infection: internal and external. All sojourn times are considered random variables which are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. For this model extinction and hazard times are analyzed, giving results for their Laplace transforms and moments. The transient behavior is considered by studying the number of times that computers are susceptible, exposed, infectious and quarantined during a period of time (0, t] and results for their joint and marginal distributions, moments and cross moments are presented. In order to give light this analysis, some numerical examples are showed.

A contribution to the natural history of scarlatina derived from observations on the London epidemic of 1887-1888 ...

Mode of access: Internet.

The typhus epidemic in eastern Macedonia,

Mode of access: Internet.

The epidemic threshold and contact number with implications for optimal vaccination strategies /

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Cornell University, May, 2000.

A practical essay on the small-pox : wherein a method of preparing the body before the disease comes on, and of deriving the variolous matter from the vital to the remote parts of the body after the accession ... to which is added An account of the principal variations of the weather and the concomitant epidemic diseases ... /

Mode of access: Internet.

A brief history of epidemic and pestilential diseases : with the principal phenomena of the physical world, which precede and accompany them, and observations deduced from the facts stated : in two volumes /

Mode of access: Internet.

Sketches of the most prevalent diseases of India : comprising, a treatise on the epidemic cholera of the East, statistical and topographical reports of the diseases in the different divisions of the army under the Madras presidency ... : iullustrated by tables and plates /

Mode of access: Internet.

An account of the varioloid epidemic, which has lately prevailed in Edinburgh and other parts of Scotland; with observations on the identity of chicken-pox with modified small-pox; in a letter to Sir James M'Grigor ...

Mode of access: Internet.