A ordem econômico-constitucional e o mercado de etanol: diretivas de um marco regulatório para o estado democrático de direito

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

Energetic-environmental assessment of a scenario for Brazilian cellulosic ethanol

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Proposta de metodologia para aplicação de eficiência energética em uma usina hidrelétrica

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Biofuels Sustainability Certification Schemes: Challenges, Feasibility and Possible Approaches

The focus of this research is to develop and apply an analytical framework for evaluating the effectiveness and practicability of sustainability certification schemes for biofuels, especially in a developing country’s perspective. The main question that drives the research analysis is “Which are the main elements of and how to develop sustainability certification schemes that would be effective and practicable in certifying the contribution of biofuels in meeting the goals Governments and other stakeholders have set up?”. Biofuels have been identified as a promising tool to reach a variety of goals: climate change protection, energy security, agriculture development, and, especially in developing countries, economic development. Once the goals have been identified, and ambitious mandatory targets for biofuels use agreed at national level, concerns have been raised by the scientific community on the negative externalities that biofuels production and use can have at environment, social and economic level. Therefore certification schemes have been recognized as necessary processes to measure these externalities, and examples of such schemes are in effect, or are in a negotiating phase, both at mandatory and voluntary levels. The research focus has emerged by the concern that the ongoing examples are very demanding in terms of compliance, both for those that are subject to certification and those that have to certify, on the quantity and quality of information to be reported. A certification system, for reasons linked to costs, lack of expertise, inadequate infrastructure, absence of an administrative and legislative support, can represent an intensive burden and can act as a serious impediment for the industrial and agriculture development of developing countries, going against the principle of equity and level playing field. While this research recognizes the importance of comprehensiveness and ambition in designing an important tool for the measurement of sustainability effects of biofuels production and use, it stresses the need to focus on the effectiveness and practicability of this tool in measuring the compliance with the goal. This research that falls under the rationale of the Sustainability Science Program housed at Harvard Kennedy School, has as main objective to close the gap between the research and policy makers worlds in the field of sustainability certification schemes for biofuels.

Evaluation of the photosynthetic efficiency of sweet sorghum under drought and cold conditions

Sweet sorghum, a C4 crop of tropical origin, is gaining momentum as a multipurpose feedstock to tackle the growing environmental, food and energy security demands. Under temperate climates sweet sorghum is considered as a potential bioethanol feedstock, however, being a relatively new crop in such areas its physiological and metabolic adaptability has to be evaluated; especially to the more frequent and severe drought spells occurring throughout the growing season and to the cold temperatures during the establishment period of the crop. The objective of this thesis was to evaluate some adaptive photosynthetic traits of sweet sorghum to drought and cold stress, both under field and controlled conditions. To meet such goal, a series of experiments were carried out. A new cold-tolerant sweet sorghum genotype was sown in rhizotrons of 1 m3 in order to evaluate its tolerance to progressive drought until plant death at young and mature stages. Young plants were able to retain high photosynthetic rate for 10 days longer than mature plants. Such response was associated to the efficient PSII down-regulation capacity mediated by light energy dissipation, closure of reaction centers (JIP-test parameters), and accumulation of glucose and sucrose. On the other hand, when sweet sorghum plants went into blooming stage, neither energy dissipation nor sugar accumulation counteracted the negative effect of drought. Two hybrids with contrastable cold tolerance, selected from an early sowing field trial were subjected to chilling temperatures under controlled growth conditions to evaluate in deep their physiological and metabolic cold adaptation mechanisms. The hybrid which poorly performed under field conditions (ICSSH31), showed earlier metabolic changes (Chl a + b, xanthophyll cycle) and greater inhibition of enzymatic activity (Rubisco and PEPcase activity) than the cold tolerant hybrid (Bulldozer). Important insights on the potential adaptability of sweet sorghum to temperate climates are given.

Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Kinetic characterization for pretreatment of timber varieties and switchgrass using diluted acid hydrolysis

In recent years, growing attention has been devoted to the use of lignocellulosic biomass as a feedstock to produce renewable carbohydrates as a source of energy products, including liquid alternatives to fossil fuels. The benefits of developing woody biomass to ethanol technology are to increase the long-term national energy security, reduce fossil energy consumption, lower greenhouse gas emissions, use renewable rather than depletable resources, and create local jobs. Currently, research is driven by the need to reduce the cost of biomass-ethanol production. One of the preferred methods is to thermochemically pretreat the biomass material and subsequently, enzymatically hydrolyze the pretreated material to fermentable sugars that can then be converted to ethanol using specialized microorganisms. The goals of pretreatment are to remove the hemicellulose fraction from other biomass components, reduce bioconversion time, enhance enzymatic conversion of the cellulose fraction, and, hopefully, obtain a higher ethanol yield. The primary goal of this research is to obtain kinetic detailed data for dilute acid hydrolysis for several timber species from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and switchgrass. These results will be used to identify optimum reaction conditions to maximize production of fermentable sugars and minimize production of non-fermentable byproducts. The structural carbohydrate analysis of the biomass species used in this project was performed using the procedure proposed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Subsequently, dilute acid-catalyzed hydrolysis of biomass, including aspen, basswood, balsam, red maple, and switchgrass, was studied at various temperatures, acid concentrations, and particle sizes in a 1-L well-mixed batch reactor (Parr Instruments, ii Model 4571). 25 g of biomass and 500 mL of diluted acid solution were added into a 1-L glass liner, and then put into the reactor. During the experiment, 5 mL samples were taken starting at 100°C at 3 min intervals until reaching the targeted temperature (160, 175, or 190°C), followed by 4 samples after achieving the desired temperature. The collected samples were then cooled in an ice bath immediately to stop the reaction. The cooled samples were filtered using 0.2 μm MILLIPORE membrane filter to remove suspended solids. The filtered samples were then analyzed using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) with a Bio-Rad Aminex HPX-87P column, and refractive index detection to measure monomeric and polymeric sugars plus degradation byproducts. A first order reaction model was assumed and the kinetic parameters such as activation energy and pre-exponential factor from Arrhenius equation were obtained from a match between the model and experimental data. The reaction temperature increases linearly after 40 minutes during experiments. Xylose and other sugars were formed from hemicellulose hydrolysis over this heat up period until a maximum concentration was reached at the time near when the targeted temperature was reached. However, negligible amount of xylose byproducts and small concentrations of other soluble sugars, such as mannose, arabinose, and galactose were detected during this initial heat up period. Very little cellulose hydrolysis yielding glucose was observed during the initial heat up period. On the other hand, later in the reaction during the constant temperature period xylose was degraded to furfural. Glucose production from cellulose was increased during this constant temperature period at later time points in the reaction. The kinetic coefficient governing the generation of xylose from hemicellulose and the generation of furfural from xylose presented a coherent dependence on both temperature and acid concentration. However, no effect was observed in the particle size. There were three types of biomass used in this project; hardwood (aspen, basswood, and red maple), softwood (balsam), and a herbaceous crop (switchgrass). The activation energies and the pre-exponential factors of the timber species and switchgrass were in a range of 49 - 180 kJ/mol and from 7.5x104 - 2.6x1020 min-1, respectively, for the xylose formation model. In addition, for xylose degradation, the activation energies and the preexponential factors ranged from 130 - 170 kJ/mol and from 6.8x1013 - 3.7x1017 min-1, respectively. The results compare favorably with the literature values given by Ranganathan et al, 1985. Overall, up to 92 % of the xylose was able to generate from the dilute acid hydrolysis in this project.

Why do oil importers diversify their import sources politically? : evidence from U.S. firm-level data

International politics affects oil trade. But why? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine what kinds of firms are more responsive to change in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To test this hold-up risk hypothesis, we investigate heterogeneity in responses by matching transaction-level import data with firm-level worldwide reserves. Our results show that long-run oil import decisions are indeed more elastic for firms with oil reserves overseas than those without, although the reverse is true in the short run. We interpret this empirical regularity as that while firms trade in the spot market can adjust their imports immediately, vertically-integrated firms with investment overseas tend to commit to term contracts in the short run even though they are more responsive to changes in international politics in the long run.

The effects of international politics on oil-exporting developing countries

International politics affects oil trade. But does it affect the oil-exporting developing countries more? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to changes in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To the extent that developing countries have higher hold-up risks because of their weaker institutions, the political effect on oil trade should be more significant in the developing world. We find that oil import decisions are indeed more elastic when firms import from developing countries, although the reverse is true in the short run. Our results suggest that international politics can affect oil revenue and hence long-term development in the developing world.

Political influence in commercial and financial oil trading : the evidence from US firms

International politics affects oil trade. But do financial and commercial traders who participate in spot oil trading also respond to changes in international politics? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to increases in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. However, the political pattern of oil imports is not entirely driven by the concerns of hold-up risks, which exist when oil transactions via term contracts are associated with backward vertical FDI that is subject to expropriation. In particular, our results indicate that even financial and commercial traders significantly reduce their oil imports from U.S. political enemies. Interestingly, while these traders diversify their oil imports politically immediately after changes in international politics, other oil companies reduce their oil imports with a significant time lag. Our findings suggest that in designing regulations to avoid harmful repercussions on commodity and financial assets, policymakers need to understand the nature of political risk.

The prospects for Croatia's co-operation with the Visegrad Group. OSW Commentary No. 116, 02.10.2013

The Visegrad Group gained a new neighbour in the European Union on 1 July 2013. Given the geographic proximity, similar level of development and a number of shared interests, Croatia could become a valuable partner in Central European regional co-operation. Co-operation in the “V4+” format is possible in most of the Visegrad Group’s priorities, primarily in: energy security, transport, neighbourhood policy and EU enlargement. V4 could be attractive for Croatia as a grouping which forms broader coalitions within the EU and is helpful in solving regional problems. However, making use of this potential in practice will depend on the determination to enhance co-operation, and its success may be thwarted by temporary bilateral issues.

Shale gas in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Romania. Political context - legal status - outlook. OSW Report, September 2012

Despite their initial interest in shale gas exploration, over the past year Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Romania have become increasingly sceptical about the development of unconventional gas resources. In January of this year Bulgaria introduced an indefinite ban on the exploration and production of shale gas and Romania followed suit in May by introducing a six-month moratorium on exploration work, which it plans to extend by another two years following the country’s parliamentary elections scheduled for December. Similar measures are being planned by the government in Prague. The aim of this report is to explore the reasons why countries which claim to want to improve their energy security have been showing increasing scepticism towards shale gas.

A Strong Europe in a Globalized World: From the Hungarian to the Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union. ACES Working Papers, 2011

On June 17, 2011, the Center for Transatlantic Relations – together with the Center for European Policy Analysis, the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw, and the Embassies of Hungary and Poland – hosted authors writing on the theme “A Strong Europe in a Globalized World,” and who offered in-depth, substantive reflections about how the United States and Europe can work together more closely in meeting global challenges. Drawing on the agendas of the outgoing and incoming EU Presidencies of the Council of the European Union – Hungary and Poland respectively – authors focused on the importance of a strong US-EU partnership in the face of mounting global challenges, from the current financial and economic crisis through the insecurities of energy markets and the promise of the Arab Spring. Authors explored in depth four key areas of shared interests: A Global Perspective (Transatlantic Partnership in a Globalized World); Achievements and Deliverables of Eastern Partnership; Euro-Atlantic Perspectives for the Balkans; and Common Challenges of Energy Security. Senior Hungarian and Polish government officials, subject matter experts, private sector actors, and think tank scholars participated.

The Baltic states on the conflict in Ukraine. OSW Commentary [no doc #] 2015-01-23

Before Russia began its aggression against Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia had felt a higher level of security due to their membership in NATO and the EU. This has now changed. The authorities of these states claim that Russia has been pursuing an aggressive policy towards them for a long time, using various instruments of pressure. They claim that Russia is now able to organise acts of sabotage against them in several areas and that these could threaten both their internal stability and the territorial integrity of the region. The Baltic states’ reaction to the threat from Russia has demonstrated that the level of cooperation between them is low. It has also revealed certain weaknesses in several areas of how these states function, which Moscow may be willing to use for its own purposes. Paradoxically, this has created a chance for the Baltic states’ governments to take measures which in different political circumstances would meet with resistance from society, such as strengthening the military sector and the level of energy security.

EU Enlargement: Lessons from, and Prospects for. IES WORKING PAPER 3/2013

In 2009 the European Union (EU) reached a crucial moment in its history, in which the terms Europe and crisis became conjoined: the European sovereign-debt crisis, or Euro-crisis. Yet enlargement remains on the agenda, with the EU’s next enlargement starting on 1st July 2013 with the accession of Croatia, Iceland and FYROM looking set to follow in the near future, and probably other Western Balkan states and possibly Turkey in the long term. Enlargement therefore will soon come back into focus. Focusing on climate and energy security policy, this working paper first reflects upon the impact of the 2004/2007 enlargement on the EU. A reflection on the EU’s recent past with some of the lessons that can be learnt then follows, with a consideration that predictions of decision- and policy-making gridlock were not realised, that newer member states have proved influential, and that prospective member states cannot be expected to be passive nor impotent. The latter part of this paper evaluates the potential prospects and outcomes of these lessons with regard to future enlargement from within (Scotland and Catalonia), and without (Turkey), and the political factors which may dictate whether these possible enlargements are realised.