1000 resultados para Employment forecasting


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This paper examines the use of social enterprise – that is, not for personal profit businesses that have a strong social purpose- to support training and employment pathways for migrants and refugees facing multiple forms of exclusion. Drawing on an evaluation of a program that supports seven social enterprises in the Australian state of Victoria, the study finds that social enterprise affords unique local opportunities for economic and social participation for the program’s participants. Nevertheless, there are limits to the impacts of programs that mediate transitions within an increasingly flexible labour market without redressing the broader social determinants of labour market segmentation.

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This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team and other international Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Professor Per Davidsson considers some of the dynamics associated with firm growth.

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Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

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Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

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Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

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Young workers are highly susceptible to the precarities of external labour markets. They are more likely to be employed in precarious, part-time and insecure work and to lose their jobs in an economic downturn. For young people, the process of transitioning between education and employment includes periods in and out of further education and in and out of employment, and in underemployment. The underemployment of youth is the global norm (Roberts 2009). The policy orthodoxy in industrialised nations normalises these transitions as ‘natural’ and as a ‘stage’ through which young people must pass. Here, the state plays a vital role in providing both welfare support and regulatory protection for young people in precarious work and transitioning from it.

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The Australian Association for Research in Education (AARE) by promoting the conference theme has identified a need to be more proactive to ensure growth in the number of educational researchers. Within the Higher Education sector there are a number of methods used to encourage interest in a particular area, and these include policy, funding, sponsorship, employment and scholarships. There are three types of employment for academics: Research, Lecturing and Teaching and Learning and two types of scholarships: either students self-identify the topic or topics are targeted with associated funding. The aim of this study is to review the academic positions and targeted scholarships of Australian Universities and research organisations gathered from advertisements in a national newspaper. This will establish a baseline of recent practice from July to December, 2006 and identify opportunities for researchers in all Disciplines and specifically in education. Results reveal the two main groups for academics are Research and Lecturing, with a small number in Teaching and Learning. Although the Education Discipline is well represented overall (3rd in 12 Disciplines after Health and Science) in terms of research opportunities education then moves to 10th position. A further significant finding is the highly contractual nature of research versus the more stable, tenured environment for lecturing. There are a number of implications arising from this short study. Firstly, the Discipline of Education as a targeted area for research alone is significantly under-represented in the advertised positions but is well represented in lecturing where the role always requires teaching and research. Thus it seems the amount of time devoted to research by academics in the education Discipline is significantly lower than for health or science. Secondly, there are few industry/Government targeted scholarships in the education Discipline therefore any growth in numbers of educational researchers through postgraduate study is not expanded by funding to meet identified needs. In conclusion AARE, an association interested in promoting the growth of educational research, has an obvious need to encourage and review the outcomes of this study and perhaps adopt some of the successful strategies employed by other Disciplines to improve the opportunities for educational researchers in the future.

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This chapter will provide you with the some of the information you may need to make information on decisions in cases such as the one given above. In particular it will help you answer questions such as: 1. As Molly and Vikram are approaching the end of their shift, to attend will force them into overtime; could they refuse to attend the job on the basis of the refusal to do overtime outside of contracted hours? 2. Would their refusal be viewed as a breach of contract and therefore a disciplinary issue? 3. Why? 4. Does the need to attend this possibly gravely ill patient outweigh the demands of the paramedics to finish on time?

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Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

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It is well documented that immigrants earn less than natives in the United States, and various attempts have been made to determine whether these earnings differentials reflect underlying differences in skill or ethnic discrimination in the labor market. The earnings of immigrants and ethnic minorities is an extensively studied area focusing on the economic integration of immigrants (e.g., Chiswick (1978), Lalonde and Topel (1993), Borjas (1995)). Yet, the role of occupational segregation as a mechanism for discrimination is yet to be addressed (to our knowledge). Discrimination can be effective at either of two stages in the earnings process – in the assignment of earnings to people within occupational groups (henceforth referred to as wage discrimination) or in the allocation of people to occupations (henceforth referred to as employment discrimination). While it would be premature to attribute the underlying cause to discriminatory hiring policies of employers, it would be of social-political and economic interest to investigate the possibility.

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Current discussions regarding the relationship between welfare governance systems and employment promotion in disability policy appeal to a rejuvenated neo-liberal and paternalistic understanding of welfare governance. At the core of this rationality is the argument that people with disabilities not only have rights, but also duties, in relation to the State. In the Australia welfare system, policy tools are deployed to produce a form of self-discipline, whereby the State emphasises personal responsibility via assessment tools, ‘mutual obligation’ policy, and motivational strategies. Drawing on a two-year semi-longitudinal study with 80 people with a disability accessing welfare benefits, we examine how welfare governance subject recipients to strategies to produce productive citizens who are able to contribute to the national goal of maintaining competitiveness in the global economy. Participants’ interviews reveal the intended and unintended effects of this activation policy, including some acceptance of the logic of welfare-to-work and counter-hegemonic resistance to de-valued social identities.