Task classification and decision processes in monitoring behaviour

Task classification is introduced as a method for the evaluation of monitoring behaviour in different task situations. On the basis of an analysis of different monitoring tasks, a task classification system comprising four task 'dimensions' is proposed. The perceptual speed and flexibility of closure categories, which are identified with signal discrimination type, comprise the principal dimension in this taxonomy, the others being sense modality, the time course of events, and source complexity. It is also proposed that decision theory provides the most complete method for the analysis of performance in monitoring tasks. Several different aspects of decision theory in relation to monitoring behaviour are described. A method is also outlined whereby both accuracy and latency measures of performance may be analysed within the same decision theory framework. Eight experiments and an organizational study are reported. The results show that a distinction can be made between the perceptual efficiency (sensitivity) of a monitor and his criterial level of response, and that in most monitoring situations, there is no decrement in efficiency over the work period, but an increase in the strictness of the response criterion. The range of tasks exhibiting either or both of these performance trends can be specified within the task classification system. In particular, it is shown that a sensitivity decrement is only obtained for 'speed' tasks with a high stimulation rate. A distinctive feature of 'speed' tasks is that target detection requires the discrimination of a change in a stimulus relative to preceding stimuli, whereas in 'closure' tasks, the information required for the discrimination of targets is presented at the same point In time. In the final study, the specification of tasks yielding sensitivity decrements is shown to be consistent with a task classification analysis of the monitoring literature. It is also demonstrated that the signal type dimension has a major influence on the consistency of individual differences in performance in different tasks. The results provide an empirical validation for the 'speed' and 'closure' categories, and suggest that individual differences are not completely task specific but are dependent on the demands common to different tasks. Task classification is therefore shovn to enable improved generalizations to be made of the factors affecting 1) performance trends over time, and 2) the consistencv of performance in different tasks. A decision theory analysis of response latencies is shown to support the view that criterion shifts are obtained in some tasks, while sensitivity shifts are obtained in others. The results of a psychophysiological study also suggest that evoked potential latency measures may provide temporal correlates of criterion shifts in monitoring tasks. Among other results, the finding that the latencies of negative responses do not increase over time is taken to invalidate arousal-based theories of performance trends over a work period. An interpretation in terms of expectancy, however, provides a more reliable explanation of criterion shifts. Although the mechanisms underlying the sensitivity decrement are not completely clear, the results rule out 'unitary' theories such as observing response and coupling theory. It is suggested that an interpretation in terms of the memory data limitations on information processing provides the most parsimonious explanation of all the results in the literature relating to sensitivity decrement. Task classification therefore enables the refinement and selection of theories of monitoring behaviour in terms of their reliability in generalizing predictions to a wide range of tasks. It is thus concluded that task classification and decision theory provide a reliable basis for the assessment and analysis of monitoring behaviour in different task situations.

Evaluating and developing project-based learning:an empirical approach to evaluating CDIO

As a global profession, engineering is integral to the maintenance and further development of society. Indeed, contemporary social problems requiring engineering solutions are not only a consequence of natural and ‘manmade’ disasters (such as the Japanese earthquake or the oil leakage in the Gulf of Mexico) but also encapsulate 21st Century dilemmas around sustainability, poverty and pollution [2,6,7]. Given the complexity of such problems and the constant need for innovation, the demand for engineering education to provide a ready supply of suitably qualified engineering graduates, able to make innovative decisions has never been higher [3,5]. Bearing this in mind, and taking account problems of attrition in engineering education [1,6,4] innovation in the way in which the curriculum is developed and delivered is crucial. CDIO [Conceive, Design, Implement, Operate] provides a potentially ground-breaking solution to such dilemmas. Aimed at equipping students with practical engineering skills supported by the necessary theoretical background, CDIO could potentially change the way engineering is perceived and experienced within higher education. Aston University introduced CDIO into its Mechanical Engineering and Design programmes in October 2011. From its induction, engineering education researchers have ‘shadowed’ the staff responsible for developing and teaching the programme. Utilising an Action Research Design, and adopting a mixed methodological research design, the researchers have worked closely with the teaching team to critically reflect on the processes involved in introducing CDIO into the curriculum. Concurrently, research has been conducted to capture students’ perspectives of CDIO. In evaluating the introduction of CDIO at Aston, the researchers have developed a distinctive research strategy with which to evaluate CDIO. It is the emergent findings from this research that form the basis of this paper. Although early-on in its development CDIO is making a significant difference to engineering education at the University. The paper draws attention to pedagogical, practical and professional issues – discussing each one in turn and in doing so critically analysing the value of CDIO from academic, student and industrial perspectives. The paper concludes by noting that whilst CDIO represents a forwardthinking approach to engineering education, the need for constant innovation in learning and teaching should not be forgotten. Indeed, engineering education needs to put itself at the forefront of pedagogic practice. Providing all-rounded engineers, ready to take on the challenges of the 21st Century!

The need for wider supply chain management adoption:empirical results from Ireland

Purpose - This paper aims to provide empirical results which suggest that there is a need for more widespread adoption of supply chain management among Irish firms. Design/methodology/approach - The Republic of Ireland is a small, open, trade-dependent economy and is one of the fastest growing economies in the developed world. However, due to rising costs, there is an increasing trend in Ireland to outsource lower function manufacturing processes to lower-cost locations but to retain high-skill functions (such as R&D). This trend, together with other factors such as its peripheral location, suggests that supply chain management is critical from an Irish perspective. In order to gain unique insights of current levels of awareness/adoption of SCM and the potential impact SCM could have on competitiveness, a survey was conducted among 776 Irish firms. Findings - Overall, the findings suggest that many firms in Ireland pay lip-service to the importance of SCM elements and objectives but the majority of firms, about two thirds, have only a passing understanding of what constitutes SCM. Only 25 per cent adopt SCM programmes and only 9 per cent of Irish companies have a specialised SCM or logistics manager. The gaps in their understanding of SCM are matched by the gaps in their awareness of key costs (e.g. 59 per cent of companies do not know their total supply chain costs). While there are supply chain management adopters in Ireland that are already well up the s-curve of innovation transfer, it is the larger group of less aware companies that must become better at how they manage their supply chains. Originality/value - The paper offers a useful insight into supply chain management and its role in Irish industry. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

ICT innovation diffusion in small logistics service providers:an empirical study

For companies competing in highly dynamic markets, innovation is considered a fundamental component of a successful business as it allows companies to sustain profit margins, sales growth and reduce competitors’ pressures. Information and communication technology (ICT) is essential innovation enablers especially in service companies. The focus of the paper is on the analysis of the role of ICT in innovation processes of small third-party logistics service providers (3PLs). On the basis of quantitative evidence emerging from a recent survey carried out on the Italian 3PL market, the paper analyses how ICT is used to support innovation and the factors the inhibit/facilitate the usage of ICT in such companies. Implications for supply chain innovation management are derived from the research and managerial perspectives.

Systematic financial resources allocation processes:a model for critical resources mobilization and deployment for nigerian universities

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to study the perceived impact of some factors on the resources allocation processes of the Nigerian universities and to suggest a framework that will help practitioners and academics to understand and improve such processes. Design/methodology/approach – The study adopted the interpretive qualitative approach aimed at an ‘in-depth’ understanding of the resource allocation experiences of key university personnel and their perceived impact of the contextual factors affecting such processes. The analysis of individual narratives from each university established the conditions and factors impacting the resources allocation processes within each institution. Findings – The resources allocation process issues in the Nigerian universities may be categorised into people (core and peripheral units’ challenge, and politics and power); process (resources allocation processes); and resources (critical financial shortage and resources dependence response). The study also provides insight that resourcing efficiency in Nigerian universities appears strongly constrained by the rivalry among the resource managers. The efficient resources allocation process (ERAP) model is proposed to resolve the identified resourcing deficiencies. Research limitations/implications – The research is not focused to provide generalizable observations but ‘in-depth’ perceived factors and their impact on the resources allocation processes in Nigerian universities. The study is limited to the internal resources allocation issues within the universities and excludes the external funding factors. The resource managers’ responses to the identified factors may affect their internal resourcing efficiency. Further research using more empirical samples is required to obtain more widespread results and the implications for all universities. Originality/value – This study contributes a fresh literature framework to resources allocation processes focusing at ‘people’, ‘process’ and ‘resources’. Also a middle range theory triangulation is developed in relation to better understanding of resourcing process management. The study will be of interest to university managers and policy makers.

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

A New Class of Processes for Formalizing and Generalizing Individual-Based Models: The Semi-Semi-Markov Processes

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60K15, 60K20, 60G20,60J75, 60J80, 60J85, 60-08, 90B15.

Leader-member exchange and attitudes:a theoretical and empirical integration

The central proposition of this thesis is that there are key benefits to examining leadership perceptions as an attitude towards the leader. In particular, it is argued that doing so can provide an enhanced understanding of leadership perceptions and therefore advance theory in this area. To provide empirical support for this theoretcial integration, the current research focused on one of the most popular leadership theories, leader-member exchange (LMX), and demonstrated how the concept of attitude strength could advance understanding of how and when LMX influenced employee job performance. Although the measurement of LMX requires employees to provide a cognitive evaluation of their relationship with their leader, previous research has, to date, not considered this evaluation to be an attitude. This thesis provides a justification for doing so and develops two novel constructs: LMX importance and LMX ambivalence. Both of these variables are argued to represent previously unconsidered facets of the LMX relationship, which, according to attitude theory, provide a more multifaceted understanding of leadership perceptions than previously envisaged. Such an understanding can provide a more detailed understanding of how such perceptions influence outcomes. Two studies provided an empirical test of the above reasoning. Study 1, a longitudinal field study, demonstrated initial support for many of the hypotheses. LMX amivalence was shown to lead to poorer task performance and organisational citizenship behaviour, mediated by the experience of negative affect. Evidence was also found for the moderating effect of LMX importance, although felt obligations was not found to mediate this moderated effect. While Study 1 used project groups as its participants, Study 2 provided a first test of the construct in an organisational setting; with three companies proving data. Again, strong support was found for the negative effects of LMX ambivalence on employee outcomes, with evidence also found for the role of perceived organisational support in mitigating these negative effects. Support was also found for the moderated mediation hypothesis related to LMX importance, although this was only found in the largest organisation sample. Some of the main theoretical and methodological implications of viewing leadership perceptions as attitudes to the wider leadership area were discussed. The cross-fertilisation of research from the attitudes literature to understanding leadership perceptions provides new insights into leadership processes and potential avenues for further research.

Az ellátási lánc disztribúció oldalának menedzsment eszközei – empirikus elemzés = Management tools of the demand chain – an empirical analysis

A tanulmány célja, hogy bemutassa a Magyarországon működő vállalatok gyakorlatát az ellátási lánc disztribúció oldalának menedzsmentje területén egy empirikus kutatás eredményeinek segítségével. A dolgozat két részből épül fel. Az első részben egy elméleti áttekintés olvasható azokról a menedzsment eszközökről, amelyeket a vállalatok disztribúciós folyamataik során alkalmazhatnak az ellátási láncban. A második rész az empirikus kutatás eredményeit mutatja be. A felmérés során 92 vállalat (amelyből az elemzésbe 79 volt ténylegesen bevonható) vett részt, és válaszaik és a statisztikai elemzés alapján kirajzolódik egy kép, hogy milyen mértékben alkalmazzák a disztribúciós lánc menedzsment eszközeit, valamint milyen fejlettségi szintek különböztethetők meg az alkalmazás volumene alapján. = Aim of the paper is to present the operational practice of Hungarian companies in managing the distribution side of the supply chain (the demand chain), with the help of the results of an empirical research. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, a literature review is presented about the management tools which companies may use while managing their distribution processes in the supply chain. In the second part I introduce the results of the empirical research. The survey was participated by 92 companies (of which 79 could be analysed) and according to their responses and the statistical analyses, a picture was formulated about how intensely they use the demand chain management tools, how developed they are in the application of those.

Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

Theological reflection at work: A phenomenological study of learning processes

Using the learning descriptions of graduates of a graduate ministry program, the mechanisms of interactions between the knowledge facets in learning processes were explored and described. The intent of the study was to explore how explicit, implicit, and emancipatory knowledge facets interacted in the learning processes at or about work. The study provided empirical research on Yang's (2003) holistic learning theory. ^ A phenomenological research design was used to explore the essence of knowledge facet interactions. I achieved epoche through the disclosure of assumptions and a written self-experience to bracket biases. A criterion based, stratified sampling strategy was used to identify participants. The sample was stratified by graduation date. The sample consisted of 11 participants and was composed primarily of married (n = 9), white, non-Hispanic (n = 10), females (n = 9), who were Roman Catholic (n = 9). Professionally, the majority of the group were teachers or professors (n = 5). ^ A semi-structured interview guide with scheduled and unscheduled probes was used. Each approximately 1-hour long interview was digitally recorded and transcribed. The transcripts were coded using a priori codes from holistic learning theory and one emergent code. The coded data were analyzed by identifying patterns, similarities, and differences under each code and then between codes. Steps to increase the trustworthiness of the study included member checks, coding checks, and thick descriptions of the data. ^ Five themes were discovered including (a) the difficulty in describing interactions between knowledge facets; (b) actual mechanisms of interactions between knowledge facets; (c) knowledge facets initiating learning and dominating learning processes; (d) the dangers of one-dimensional learning or using only one knowledge facet to learn; and (e) the role of community in learning. The interpretation confirmed, extended, and challenged holistic learning theory. Mechanisms of interaction included knowledge facets expressing, informing, changing, and guiding one another. Implications included the need for a more complex model of learning and the value of seeing spirituality in the learning process. The study raised questions for future research including exploring learning processes with people from non-Christian faith traditions or other academic disciplines and the role of spiritual identity in learning. ^

Two -way direction of influence in mother-infant interaction as denoted by concurrent reciprocal learning processes

This series of 5 single-subject studies used the operant conditioning paradigm to investigate, within the two-way influence process, how (a) contingent infant attention can reinforce maternal verbal behaviors during a period of mother-infant interaction and under subsequent experimental manipulation. Differential reinforcement was used to determine if it is possible that an infant attending to the mother (denoted by head-turns towards the image of the mother plus eye contact) increases (reinforces) the mother's verbal response (to a cue from the infant) upon which the infant behavior is contingent. There was also (b) an evaluation during the contrived parent-infant interaction for concurrent operant learning of infant vocal behavior via contingent verbal responding (reinforcement) implemented by the mother. Further, it was noted (c) whether or not the mother reported being aware that her responses were influenced by the infant's behavior. Findings showed: the operant conditioning of the maternal verbal behaviors were reinforced by contingent infant attention; and the operant conditioning of infant vocalizations was reinforced by contingent maternal verbal behaviors. No parent reported (1) being aware of the increase in their verbal response reinforced during operant conditioning of parental behavior nor a decrease in those responses during the DRA reversal phase, or (2) noticing a contingency between infant's and mother's response. By binomial 1-tail tests, the verbal-behavior patterns of the 5 mothers were conditioned by infant reinforcement (p < 0.02) and, concurrently, the vocal-response patterns of the 5 infants were conditioned by maternal reinforcement (p < 0.02). A program of systematic empirical research on the determinants of concurrent conditioning within mother-child interaction may provide a way to evaluate the differential effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving parent-child interactions. The work conducted in the present study is one step in this direction. ^

A model of school managerial control : the systematic analysis of managerial behaviors, processes, and indicators

The theoretical construct of control has been defined as necessary (Etzioni, 1965), ubiquitous (Vickers, 1967), and on-going (E. Langer, 1983). Empirical measures, however, have not adequately given meaning to this potent construct, especially within complex organizations such as schools. Four stages of theory-development and empirical testing of school building managerial control using principals and teachers working within the nation's fourth largest district are presented in this dissertation as follows: (1) a review and synthesis of social science theories of control across the literatures of organizational theory, political science, sociology, psychology, and philosophy; (2) a systematic analysis of school managerial activities performed at the building level within the context of curricular and instructional tasks; (3) the development of a survey questionnaire to measure school building managerial control; and (4) initial tests of construct validity including inter-item reliability statistics, principal components analyses, and multivariate tests of significance. The social science synthesis provided support of four managerial control processes: standards, information, assessment, and incentives. The systematic analysis of school managerial activities led to further categorization between structural frequency of behaviors and discretionary qualities of behaviors across each of the control processes and the curricular and instructional tasks. Teacher survey responses (N=486) reported a significant difference between these two dimensions of control, structural frequency and discretionary qualities, for standards, information, and assessments, but not for incentives. The descriptive model of school managerial control suggests that (1) teachers perceive structural and discretionary managerial behaviors under information and incentives more clearly than activities representing standards or assessments, (2) standards are primarily structural while assessments are primarily qualitative, (3) teacher satisfaction is most closely related to the equitable distribution of incentives, (4) each of the structural managerial behaviors has a qualitative effect on teachers, and that (5) certain qualities of managerial behaviors are perceived by teachers as distinctly discretionary, apart from school structure. The variables of teacher tenure and school effectiveness reported significant effects on school managerial control processes, while instructional levels (elementary, junior, and senior) and individual school differences were not found to be significant for the construct of school managerial control.

Asymptotic Theory for Extended Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH Processes

The paper considers various extended asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility models, and derives appropriate regularity conditions and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency and allows valid statistical inferences to be drawn based on empirical estimation. For this purpose, we use an underlying vector random coefficient autoregressive process, for which we show the equivalent representation for the asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility model, to derive asymptotic theory for the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. As an extension, we develop a new multivariate asymmetric long memory volatility model, and discuss the associated asymptotic properties.

Financialisation, Capital Accumulation and Economic Development : A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of the Nigerian Economy

The primary focus of this study is to highlight those unobtrusive, yet fundamental, factors undermining economic development in Nigeria. To begin with, it posits that the decelerating pace of capital accumulation in Nigeria, which naturally occasions rising unemployment and poverty levels, and widening inequality gap, is the result of the ‘low possibility’ of capitalist enterprises in the country of earning an adequate rate of profit from their productive processes. In turn, the ‘low possibility’ is argued to be the result of the uneven development inherent in the modern capitalist structure, the high cost of capital and of production peculiar to Nigeria, and the ineffective demand for goods made in Nigeria: these elements are viewed as been precipitated by the contradictions of the contemporary political-economic arrangement that organises the Social Structures of Accumulation. For Nigeria to ‘develop’, it is contended that the unobtrusive elements inherent in the contradiction of the political-economic economic that undermine the capitalists’ ability to earn a commensurate rate of profit in the country needs to be fully addressed first. Furthermore, this study suggests that it is crucial the country embraces knowledge-based industrialisation if it is to achieve some form of ‘competitive advantage’ in the global market, which could enable its productive processes extract a commensurate level of profit from the market. To facilitate the knowledge-based industrialisation, the state should, not only create a conducive environment for industrial development but also play the lead role in transforming the peripheral and oil dependent economy to a knowledge-based economy by coordinating business organisations and investing in high-risk innovations.