Identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks in a small open economy

The standard Blanchard-Quah (BQ) decomposition forces aggregate demand and supply shocks to be orthogonal. However, this assumption is problematic for a nation with an inflation target. The very notion of inflation targeting means that monetary policy reacts to changes in aggregate supply. This paper employs a modification of the BQ procedure that allows for correlated shifts in aggregate supply and demand. It is found that shocks to Australian aggregate demand and supply are highly correlated. The estimated shifts in the aggregate demand and supply curves are then used to measure the effects of inflation targeting on the Australian inflation rate and level of GDP.

Constraints to cost effective land supply

The ready availability of suitably zoned and serviced land is one of the key factors in the timely and cost effective provision of new land for development. Unfortunately, in many high population growth areas, land that may be available does not have ready access to infrastructure, or the appropriate designation/s (zoning) in place. The corresponding lag in supply frequently bears the blame for the resultant disequilibrium in the market and affordability pressures on the end product. Government has the capacity to respond to the issue of land supply in a number of ways. Proactive measures define longer term goals and set the ground rules moving forwards. Reactive policy decisions are made in an often hostile environment where stakeholder interests conflict. With a trend to increased regulation, government risks further constraining the viability of land development in high growth areas, without full consideration of all the supply side variables. This preliminary paper will identify a number of the variables which may be constraining the supply of land for residential development in South East Queensland given the current regulatory environment. It will examine the interrelationship between these supply side constraints, a full understanding of which is required by government in order for its policies to stimulate, rather than restrict the supply of land in this high growth region.

Housing supply in Australia : the impact of the availability of development finance

Before the Global Financial Crisis many providers of finance had growth mandates and actively pursued development finance deals as a way of gaining higher returns on funds with regular capital turnover and re-investment possible. This was able to be achieved through high gearing and low presales in a strong market. As asset prices fell, loan covenants breached and memories of the 1990’s returned, banks rapidly adjusted their risk appetite via retraction of gearing and expansion of presale requirements. Early signs of loosening in bank credit policy are emerging, however parties seeking development finance are faced with a severely reduced number of institutions from which to source funding. The few institutions that are lending are filtering out only the best credit risks by way of constrictive credit conditions including: low loan to value ratios, the corresponding requirement to contribute high levels of equity, lack of support in non-prime locations and the requirement for only borrowers with well established track records. In this risk averse and capital constrained environment, the ability of developers to proceed with real estate developments is still being constrained by their inability to obtain project finance. This paper will examine the pre and post GFC development finance environment. It will identify the key lending criteria relevant to real estate development finance and will detail the related changes to credit policies over this period. The associated impact to real estate development projects will be presented, highlighting the significant constraint to supply that the inability to obtain finance poses.

Assessing the impact of infrastructure charges on land values and land supply in SEQ

This is a preliminary scoping presentation. It outlines some of the very early issues identified this research topic.

Relational factors that explain supply chain relationships

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to gain a better understanding of the types of relationships that exist along the supply chain and the capabilities that are needed to manage them effectively. ---------- Design/methodology/approach: This is exploratory research as there has been little empirical research into this area. Quantitative data were gathered by using a self-administered questionnaire, using the Australian road freight industry as the context. There were 132 usable responses. Inferential and descriptive analysis, including factor analysis, confirmatory factor and regression analysis was used to examine the predictive power of relational factors in inter-firm relationships. ---------- Findings: Three factors were identified as having significant influence on relationships: sharing, power and interdependency. “Sharing” is the willingness of the organisation to share resources with other members of the supply chain. “Power” relates to exercising control based on experience, knowledge and position in the supply chain. “Interdependency” is the relative levels of dependency along the supply chain. ---------- Research limitations/implications: The research only looks at the Australian road freight industry; a wider sample including other industries would help to strengthen the generalisability of the findings. ---------- Practical implications: When these factors are correlated to the types of relationship, arm's length, cooperation, collaboration and alliances, managerial implications can be identified. The more road freight businesses place importance on power, the less they will cooperate. The greater the importance of sharing and interdependency, the greater is the likelihood of arm's length relationships. ---------- Originality/value: This paper makes a contribution by describing empirical work conducted in an under-researched but important area – supply chain relationships in the Australian road freight industry.

The Green Falcon - Solar Powered Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

In recent months the extremes of Australia’s weather have affected, killed a good number of people and millions of dollars lost. Contrary to a manned aircraft or a helicopter; which have restricted air time, a UAS or a group of UAS could provide 24 hours coverage of the disaster area and be instrumented with infrared cameras to locate distressed people and relay information to emergency services. The solar powered UAV is capable of carrying a 0.25Kg payload consuming 0.5 watt and fly continuously for at low altitude for 24 hrs ,collect the data and create a special distribution . This system, named Green Falcon, is fully autonomous in navigation and power generation, equipped with solar cells covering its wing, it retrieves energy from the sun in order to supply power to the propulsion system and the control electronics, and charge the battery with the surplus of energy. During the night, the only energy available comes from the battery, which discharges slowly until the next morning when a new cycle starts. The prototype airplane was exhibited at the Melbourne Museum form Nov09 to Feb 2010.

Use of face masks by non-scrubbed operating room staff : a randomized controlled trial.

Background: Ambiguity remains about the effectiveness of wearing surgical face masks. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact on surgical site infections when non-scrubbed operating room staff did not wear surgical face masks. Design: Randomised controlled trial. Participants: Patients undergoing elective or emergency obstetric, gynecological, general, orthopaedic, breast or urological surgery in an Australian tertiary hospital. Intervention: 827 participants were enrolled and complete follow-up data was available for 811 (98.1%) patients. Operating room lists were randomly allocated to a ‘Mask roup’ (all non-scrubbed staff wore a mask) or ‘No Mask group’ (none of the non-scrubbed staff wore masks). Primary end point: Surgical site infection (identified using in-patient surveillance; post discharge follow-up and chart reviews). The patient was followed for up to six weeks. Results: Overall, 83 (10.2%) surgical site infections were recorded; 46/401 (11.5%) in the Masked group and 37/410 (9.0%) in the No Mask group; odds ratio (OR) 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49 to 1.21), p = 0.151. Independent risk factors for surgical site infection included: any pre-operative stay (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.43 (95% CI, 0.20; 0.95), high BMI aOR, 0.38 (95% CI, 0.17; 0.87), and any previous surgical site infection aOR, 0.40 (95% CI, 0.17; 0.89). Conclusion: Surgical site infection rates did not increase when non-scrubbed operating room personnel did not wear a face mask.

The relationship between particulate air pollution and emergency hospital visits for hypertension in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND: A number of epidemiological studies have examined the adverse effect of air pollution on mortality and morbidity. Also, several studies have investigated the associations between air pollution and specific-cause diseases including arrhythmia, myocardial infarction, and heart failure. However, little is known about the relationship between air pollution and the onset of hypertension. OBJECTIVE: To explore the risk effect of particulate matter air pollution on the emergency hospital visits (EHVs) for hypertension in Beijing, China. METHODS: We gathered data on daily EHVs for hypertension, fine particulate matter less than 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(2.5)), particulate matter less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide in Beijing, China during 2007. A time-stratified case-crossover design with distributed lag model was used to evaluate associations between ambient air pollutants and hypertension. Daily mean temperature and relative humidity were controlled in all models. RESULTS: There were 1,491 EHVs for hypertension during the study period. In single pollutant models, an increase in 10 microg/m(3) in PM(2.5) and PM(10) was associated with EHVs for hypertension with odds ratios (overall effect of five days) of 1.084 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.028, 1.139) and 1.060% (95% CI: 1.020, 1.101), respectively. CONCLUSION: Elevated levels of ambient particulate matters are associated with an increase in EHVs for hypertension in Beijing, China.