The Obduction of Equatorial 13 degrees C Water in the Pacific Identified by a Simulated Passive Tracer

The obduction of equatorial 13 degrees C Water in the Pacific is investigated using a simulated passive tracer of the Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO). The result shows that the 13 degrees C Water initialized in the region 8 degrees N-8 degrees S, 130 degrees-90 degrees W enters the surface mixed layer in the eastern tropical Pacific, mainly through upwelling near the equator, in the Costa Rica Dome, and along the coast of Peru. Approximately two-thirds of this obduction occurs within 10 years after the 13 degrees C Water being initialized, with the upper portion of the water mass reaching the surface mixed layer in only about a month. The obduction of the 13 degrees C Water helps to maintain a cool sea surface temperature year-round, equivalent to a surface heat flux of about -6.0 W m(-2) averaged over the eastern tropical Pacific (15 degrees S-15 degrees N, 130 degrees W-eastern boundary) for the period of integration (1993-2006). During El Nino years, when the thermocline deepens as a consequence of the easterly wind weakening, the obduction of the 13 degrees C Water is suppressed, and the reduced vertical entrainment generates a warming anomaly of up to 10 W m(-2) in the eastern tropical Pacific and in particular along the coast of Peru, providing explanations for the warming of sea surface temperature that cannot be accounted for by local winds alone. The situation is reversed during La Nina years.

Interannual horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: assimilation versus TAO analysis

The interannual anomalies of horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean in an assimilation experiment are studied and compared with existing observational analyses. The assimilation builds upon a hindcast study that has produced a good simulation of the observed equatorial currents and optimizes the simulation of the Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) data. The comparison suggests that the assimilation has improved the simulation of the interannual horizontal heat advection of the surface mixed layer significantly. During periods of interrupted current measurements, the assimilation is shown to produce more meaningful anomalies of the heat advection than the interpolation of the observational data does. The assimilation also shows that the eddy heat flux due to the correlation between high-frequency current and SST variations, which is largely overlooked by the existing observational analyses, is important for the interannual SST balance over the equatorial Pacific. The interannual horizontal heat advection anomalies are found to be sensitive to SST errors where oceanic currents are strong, which is a challenge for ENSO prediction. The study further suggests that the observational analyses of the tropical SST balance based on the TAO and the Reynolds SST data contain significant errors due to the large gradient errors in the Reynolds SST data, which are amplified into the advection anomalies by the large equatorial currents.

Progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies in China

This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea interaction, namely air-sea interaction related to the tropical Pacific Ocean, monsoon-related air-sea interaction, air-sea interaction in the north Pacific Ocean, air-sea interaction in the Indian Ocean, air-sea interactions in the global oceans, field experiments, and oceanic cruise surveys. However more attention has been paid to the first and the second aspects because a large number of papers in the reference literature for preparing and organizing this paper are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO process with its climatic effects and dynamics, and the monsoon-related air-sea interaction. The literature also involves various phenomena with their different time and spatial scales such as intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the atmosphere/ocean interaction system, reflecting the contemporary themes in the four-year period at the beginning of an era from the post-TOGA to CLIVAR studies. Apparently, it is a difficult task to summarize the great progress in this area, as it is extracted from a large quantity of literature, although the authors tried very hard.

Equatorial pacific SSTA-related decadal variations of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate

Based on analysis of NCEP reanalysis data and SST indices of the recent 50 years, decadal changes of the potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies were investigated. Autocorrelation of Nino3 SST anomalies (SSTA) and correlation between atmospheric anomalies fields and Nino3 SSTA exhibit obvious variation in different decades, which indicates that Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies has significant decadal changes. Time around 1977 is not only a shift point of climate on the interdecadal time scale but also a catastrophe point of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate. As a whole, ENSO and the PNA pattern in boreal winter are more predictable in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s, while the Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of the Indian monsoon and the East Asian Monsoon is lower in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s.

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model and ENSO prediction study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature during boreal winter: Madden-Julian Oscillation versus submonthly forcing and processes

[ 1] Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter is investigated by analyzing available data and a suite of solutions to an ocean general circulation model for 1998 - 2004. This period covers the QuikSCAT and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Impacts of the 30 - 90 day and 10 - 30 day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are examined separately, with the former dominated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the latter dominated by convectively coupled Rossby and Kelvin waves. The maximum variation of intraseasonal SST occurs at 10 degrees S - 2 degrees S in the wintertime Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the mixed layer is thin and intraseasonal wind speed reaches its maximum. The observed maximum warming ( cooling) averaged over ( 60 degrees E - 85 degrees E, 10 degrees S - 3 degrees S) is 1.13 degrees C ( - 0.97 degrees C) for the period of interest, with a standard deviation of 0.39 degrees C in winter. This SST change is forced predominantly by the MJO. While the MJO causes a basin-wide cooling ( warming) in the ITCZ region, submonthly ISOs cause a more complex SST structure that propagates southwestward in the western-central basin and southeastward in the eastern ocean. On both the MJO and submonthly timescales, winds are the deterministic factor for the SST variability. Short-wave radiation generally plays a secondary role, and effects of precipitation are negligible. The dominant role of winds results roughly equally from wind speed and stress forcing. Wind speed affects SST by altering turbulent heat fluxes and entrainment cooling. Wind stress affects SST via several local and remote oceanic processes.

IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC COUPLED PROCESS ON THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

The basic features of climatology and interannual variations of tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans were analyzed using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM), which was constituted with an intermediate 2.5-layer ocean model and atmosphere model ECHAM4. The CGCM well captures the spatial and temporal structure of the Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability features in the tropical Indian Ocean. The influence of Pacific air-sea coupled process on the Indian Ocean variability was investigated carefully by conducting numerical experiments. Results show that the occurrence frequency of positive/negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will decrease/increase with the presence/absence of the coupled process in the Pacific Ocean. Further analysis demonstrated that the air-sea coupled process in the Pacific Ocean affects the IOD variability mainly by influencing the zonal gradient of thermocline via modulating the background sea surface wind.

Variability of surface circulation in the South China Sea from satellite altimeter data

11-year satellite altimeter sea surface height (SSH) anomaly data from January 1993 to December 2003 are used to present the dominant spatial patterns and temporal variations of the South China Sea (SCS) surface circulation through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOF modes show the obvious seasonal variations of SSH in the SCS. EOF mode one is generally characterized by a basin-wide circulation. Mode two describes the double-cell basin scale circulation structure. The two cells were located off west of the Luzon Island and southeast of Vietnam, respectively. EOF mode three presents the mesoscale eddy structure in the western SCS, which develops into a strong cyclonic eddy rapidly from July to September. EOF mode one and mode three are also embedded with interannual signals, indicating that the SCS surface circulation variation is influenced by El Nino events prominently. The strong El Nino of 1997/98 obviously changed the SCS circulation structure. This study also shows that there existed a series of mesoscale eddies in the western SCS, and their temporal variation indicates intra-seasonal and interannual signals.

Variation in joint mode of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean thermodynamic anomaly

Previous research has defined the index of the Indian-Pacific thermodynamic anomaly joint mode (IPTAJM) and suggested that the winter IPTAJM has an important impact on summer rainfall over China. However, the possible causes for the interannual and decadal variability of the IPTAJM are still unclear. Therefore, this work investigates zonal displacements of both the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIOWP). The relationships between the WPWP and the EIOWP and the IPTAJM are each examined, and then the impacts of the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans on the IPTAJM are studied. The WPWP eastern edge anomaly displays significant interannual and decadal variability and experienced a regime shift in about 1976 and 1998, whereas the EIOWP western edge exhibits only distinct interannual variability. The decadal variability of the IPTAJM may be mainly caused by both the zonal migration of the WPWP and the 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the zonal migrations of both the WPWP and the EIOWP and the zonal wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may be all responsible for the interannual variability of the IPTAJM.

Mixed-layer water oscillations in tropical Pacific for ENSO cycle

The main modes of interannal variabilities of thermocline and sea surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific and their interactions are investigated, which show the following results. (1) The thermocline anomalies in the tropical Pacific have a zonal dipole pattern with 160 W as its axis and a meridional seesaw pattern with 6-8 degrees N as its transverse axis. The meridional oscillation has a phase lag of about 90 to the zonal oscillation, both oscillations get together to form the El Nino/La Nina cycle, which behaves as a mixed layer water oscillates anticlockwise within the tropical Pacific basin between equator and 12 degrees N. (2) There are two main patterns of wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific, of which the first component caused by trade wind anomaly is characterized by the zonal wind stress anomalies and its corresponding divergences field in the equatorial Pacific, and the abnormal cross- equatorial flow wind stress and its corresponding divergence field, which has a sign opposite to that of the equatorial region, in the off-equator of the tropical North Pacific, and the second component represents the wind stress anomalies and corresponding divergences caused by the ITCZ anomaly. (3) The trade winds anomaly plays a decisive role in the strength and phase transition of the ENSO cycle, which results in the sea level tilting, provides an initial potential energy to the mixed layer water oscillation, and causes the opposite thermocline displacement between the west side and east side of the equator and also between the equator and 12 degrees N of the North Pacific basin, therefore determines the amplitude and route for ENSO cycle. The ITCZ anomaly has some effects on the phase transition. (4) The thermal anomaly of the tropical western Pacific causes the wind stress anomaly and extends eastward along the equator accompanied with the mixed layer water oscillation in the equatorial Pacific, which causes the trade winds anomaly and produces the anomalous wind stress and the corresponding divergence in favor to conduce the oscillation, which in turn intensifies the oscillation. The coupled system of ocean-atmosphere interactions and the inertia gravity of the mixed layer water oscillation provide together a phase-switching mechanism and interannual memory for the ENSO cycle. In conclusion, the ENSO cycle essentially is an inertial oscillation of the mixed layer water induced by both the trade winds anomaly and the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific basin between the equator and 12 degrees N. When the force produced by the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction is larger than or equal to the resistance caused by the mixed layer water oscillation, the oscillation will be stronger or maintain as it is, while when the force is less than the resistance, the oscillation will be weaker, even break.

末次冰消期以来东亚季风演化：来自东海和北黄海沉积孢粉记录

本论文通过对冲绳海槽南部的MD05-2908孔、北黄海的B-U35、B-U41、B-L44孔和北黄海的299份表层样中的孢粉组成、堆积速率、有机碳氮同位素的综合研究，分析了北黄海的孢粉来源、传播动力和途径，并与其它古气候记录对比，重建了末次冰消期以来东亚季风的演化。 MD05-2908孔孢粉组合特征显示6800-3800a BP间气候温暖干燥，其间存在着两次明显的温度降低、湿度增加阶段，即6800-6600a BP和5800-4850a BP；3800a BP以后，气候变得比较寒冷湿润，中世纪暖期和小冰期分别位于990-480a BP和480-230a BP。 北黄海表层孢粉百分含量等值线图显示北黄海不同海域孢粉来源不同，北黄 海东部海域(123.5°E以东的陆架区域)孢粉主要来源于鸭绿江；北黄海中部海域(123.5°E-122.6°E的陆架区域)孢粉来源比较复杂，既有来自辽东半岛、沿海岛屿、山东半岛，还有由黄海暖流携带而来的；北黄海西部海域(122.6°E以西的陆架区域)孢粉以黄海沿岸流携带而来的黄河来源的为主。 北黄海表层孢粉百分含量等值线图还显示，北黄海东部海域孢粉分布主要受 鸭绿江冲淡水影响，波浪和潮汐的作用较弱；北黄海中部海域孢粉分布受黄海暖流和辽东沿岸流的分支共同影响；黄海暖流与黄海沿岸流在山东半岛东北部相遇，形成一逆时针方向的涡旋，该涡旋控制着北黄海西部海域孢粉的分布。 B-U35孔、B-U41和B-L44孔孢粉组合特征显示，12830-12350a BP时气候 寒冷干燥，植被以旱生草本植物为主，时间上可能对应YD事件；12350-10100a BP时植被以针叶林为主，林下生长着大量蕨类植物，气候寒冷湿润，可能对应着YD事件；10100-6600a BP时植被以落叶阔叶林为主，伴生大量旱生草本植物，气候温暖干燥；6600-5000a BP时植被以针叶-落叶阔叶混交林为主，旱生草本植物含量下降，相对上一阶段温度有所降低，但气候更湿润，可能对应全新世最佳期；5000-4000a BP时针叶林所占比例扩大，温度再次降低，湿度变化不明显；4000-500a BP旱生草本植物含量增加，气候寒冷干燥；500a BP-至今，受人类活动影响，植被遭到严重破坏。 B-U35孔和B-U41孔淡水水生植物花粉百分含量曲线显示11750a BP以来黄河河口地区沼泽湿地面积几经变化。10100-6600a BP时沼泽湿地范围在上一阶段的基础上进一步扩大；6600-2850a BP间沼泽湿地大面积缩小，水生植物属种式微；2850a BP之后黄河河口地区沼泽湿地面积再次扩大，水生植物重新繁盛。 MD05-2908孔蕨类孢子百分含量被用来作为中国东南部季风演化的代用指标。结果显示6800-3800a BP时夏季风较强，其间有两次夏季风减弱阶段，分别位于6800-6600a BP和5800-4850a BP，3800a BP以来，夏季风明显减弱，此期的夏季风减弱除受太阳辐射量的减少影响外，可能还与El Nino的频繁爆发有关。 B-U35孔和B-U41孔蒿属、藜科、麻黄科百分含量被用来作为中国中北部夏季风演化的代用指标。研究表明，11750a BP以来东亚夏季风强度在10100-6600a BP时，显著加强，6600a BP左右，夏季风开始减弱，4000a BP以后夏季风显著减弱。 将MD05-2908孔、B-U35孔和B-U41孔夏季风代用指标进行对比发现，中晚全新世以来中国南-北湿度变化特征正好相反，东亚夏季风强度变化以及由此引起的雨锋的南进北撤可能是导致中国不同区域中晚全新世以来降雨量不同的主要原因。

北太平洋低纬度西边界流的时空特征和变异规律研究

北太平洋低纬度西边界流连接着太平洋热带环流和副热带环流，对于世界大洋经向质量、热量和盐量输送起着重要的作用，对北赤道流（NEC）、源区黑潮（KC）和棉兰老流（MC）的时空特征和变异规律进行研究，对认识北太平洋西边界流海洋在全球气候系统中的作用具有重要的理论和实践意义。 本文利用1957-2006年共50年的涡解高分辨率OFES（OGCM for the Earth Simulator）海洋模式资料，对北太平洋低纬度西边界流的时空特征和变异规律进行了分析，结果表明： （1）涡解高分辨率的OFES模式数据结果较SODA能更好地刻画NMK流系三维空间结构的分布特征；黑潮源区涡结构的变化，MUC、 LUC及NEC下的东向流也得到了较好的刻画；其空间结构与实测结果相吻合。 （2）北太平洋低纬度西边界流NMK流系流量具有明显的季节、年际和年代际变化，NEC、KC和MC流量的变化周期频谱较宽,主要为3－6个月的季节振荡和2-7年左右ENSO尺度周期以及10年以上周期的年代际变化。MC主要表现为准两年周期振荡。 （3）NEC、MC流量变化表现为单峰型分布，春季最大（5月），秋季最小（11月）；KC流量的变化为双峰型，大值出现在春季和夏末秋初，春季最大（4月），秋季次之，冬季最小（1月）。在季节时间尺度上，NEC、MC流量同相变化，除冬季外，KC与MC输运反向。 （4） 在年际时间尺度上，受北赤道流流量变化的影响，NEC与KC、MC流量之间为正相关关系；KC与MC分配量（北赤道流向北、向南的经向分配量）之间则为强的负相关关系，其年际异常变化与NEC分叉位置的变化和冷、暖ENSO事件发生密切相关。分叉位置偏北（南）时，KC分配量小（大）而MC分配量大（小）；在El Nino年，KC分配量小，MC分配量大，La Nina年情况则刚好相反。 （5）在年代际时间尺度上，在70年代末气候跃变以后，NEC、KC和MC流量明显减少，NMK环流系统减弱。NEC的减弱主要受上世纪80年代以后ENSO暖事件发生频率和强度的增加所影响，而KC和MC的减弱则主要受NEC减弱控制。同时发现，NEC分叉位置存有明显的年代际变化，在气候跃变以后有长期偏北的趋势，受其影响，与之相对应的是北赤道流向南经向分配量的增加和向北流量分配率的减少。 关键词：北太平洋，低纬度西边界流，北赤道流分叉，ENSO

大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

西太平洋暖池纬向变异规律研究

西太平洋暖池汇集着世界上开阔海洋中温度最高的海水，它的维持和变化对全球天气和气候的变化起着关键性的作用。从海洋学角度全面而系统地研究西太平洋暖池的纬向变异特征、机制以及暖池纬向变异对ENSO的影响等科学问题，对深入了解发生在暖池区的海气耦合过程，全面认识暖池变异在ENSO循环及在全球气候变化中的作用是不可缺少的，该项研究具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。 本文根据长时间序列的海洋和大气资料，利用EOF、小波等分析方法较系统地研究了西太平洋暖池整层暖水纬向运移特征、暖池水体的时空振荡及暖池纬向的运移、时空振荡对ENSO的影响，分析了西太平洋暖池和东太平洋暖池对ENSO的联合影响，探讨了风场和流场对西太平洋暖池纬向变异的影响，并用一个简单的海洋模式，对暖池纬向变异的动力机制进行了诊断分析。主要研究内容及结果如下： 利用加权平均法，建立了一个表征整体暖池纬向运移的指标序列，分析了暖池纬向运移的时频特征以及暖池内部暖水在纬向运移上的差异，并探讨了暖池的纬向运移对赤道西太平洋海平面高度和温跃层深度的影响以及与ENSO的关系。结果显示：暖池的纬向运移具有显著的2-7a的年际变化和10-16a的年代际变化，并于1976年前后经历了一次气候跃变。暖池内部大致可以50m深度水层为界分为上、下两部分，暖池的上半部分纬向运移幅度非常大，而下半部分则相对较小。暖池的纬向运移不仅是赤道西太平洋海平面高度和温跃层深度异常变化的一个非常重要的直接因素，而且对ENSO的形成与发展有非常重要的作用。 为进一步了解暖池整体的时空振荡及其影响，分别对暖池厚度场、热带太平洋风应力场、海表面高度和热含量场进行了EOF分析。结果显示，西太平洋暖池水体具有大致以赤道为横轴的经向“跷跷板”式季节性反位相振荡和大致以 170o E为纵轴的纬向“跷跷板”式年际反位相振荡。纬向振荡是暖池厚度异常场年际变率的的主导模态。西太平洋暖池暖水的纬向运移是造成暖池水体纬向振荡的主要原因。热带太平洋海表面高度与热含量异常场有着非常相似的ENSO时间尺度的振荡特征：即大致以5o N为横轴的经向“跷跷板”式反位相振荡和大致以170o W为纵轴的纬向“跷跷板”式反位相振荡。而与ENSO密切相关的热带太平洋风应力异常场也存在着纬向和经向两种主要模态，分别表现为近赤道的纬向风异常和远赤道的经向风异常。西太平洋暖池的纬向振荡对风应力异常存在滞后1个月左右的响应和显著的相互作用关系。西太平洋暖池纬向振荡能够造成热带太平洋水体质量与热量的重新分配，并通过强烈的海气相互作用对ENSO循环形成与发展起着重要的作用。 西太平洋暖池和东太平洋暖池是热带太平洋两个重要的暖水区。在系统分析西太平洋暖池的纬向变异和东太平洋暖池的经向变异特征基础上，提出了两暖池对ENSO循环联合影响的新观点，并建立了一个联合影响指数。结果显示，当联合指数达1.6时，则预示着一次新El Nino的发生。这为ENSO的研究和预测提供了一个新线索。 数据分析显示，赤道中太平洋的纬向风应力及上层纬向流异常是暖池纬向运移的两个重要的动力因素，且两者对暖池的纬向运移有良好的预报意义。利用一个简单的海洋模式模拟结果，分析了风驱动下的上层纬向流异常、波动(Kelvin波和Rossby波)及其在边界的反射效应对暖池纬向运移的动力影响。模式结果显示：中太平洋上层纬向流异常是西太平洋暖池纬向运移的主要驱动机制。暖池的纬向运移对波模态流具有滞后约4个月的响应，而风漂流对暖池纬向运移的影响则比较适时。波动在太平洋东、西两边界的反射效应对暖池西缩的影响较大。

中国海散射计风、浪算法研究及海面风场、有效波高的时空特征分析

海面风场系统对天气变化起着至关重要的作用。本文对ERS-2散射计风场数据进行了分析，并将其与NCEP再分析风场和浮标观测风场进行了比较。对连续13年中国海海区ERS-1/2和QuikSCAT散射计海面风场资料进行插值平均处理，得到一个中国海月平均海面风场资料集。首先对该资料集进行了逐月多年平均风场分析，进而对该资料集的距平风场进行矢量经验正交函数（Vector EOF）分解，分别探讨了中国海海面风场的年际和年代际变化特征。年际EOF分解得到的第一模态具有较好的年变化波动周期，与多年平均风场中的冬季风和夏季风（当时间系数为负值时）流型相近，表现为冬-夏振荡型，反映了影响整个中国海的东亚季风强盛时期的风场特征。第二模态与多年平均风场中的季节转换流型相近，表现为春－秋振荡型，反映了冬季风和夏季风之间的转换过渡时期的风场特征。年代际EOF分解得到的第一模态反映了中国海季风的年代际变化特征。第二模态时间系数分布与滞后4个月Nino3.4指数分布相似，反映了中国海海面风场对El Nino的响应。第三模态时间系数分布与南方涛动（SOI）指数分布相似，反映了ENSO现象对中国海海面风场异常的影响。 本文利用一种新的风浪成长关系计算了瞬时风场下的有效波高分布，并利用经验公式计算了风浪充分成长状态下的有效波高分布。分别以NCEP与QuikSCAT的混合风场和NCEP风场为输入，利用第三代海浪数值模式WAVEWATCH Ⅲ对2000年1月东中国海的风浪场进行了模拟，再现了当时的风浪演化过程。通过计算结果与实测的比较，说明将WAVEWATCH Ⅲ模式应用于东中国海海域进行大区域范围的风浪预报是可行的。 最后分析了WAVEWATCH Ⅲ模式计算得到的有效波高的月平均分布，并利用经验正交函数（EOF）方法对有效波高距平值进行分解，探讨了中国海有效波高的年际变化特征。有效波高距平场的前两个模态的时间系数分布和空间结构与海面风距平场的前两个模态基本相似，说明中国海风、浪之间有很好的相关性。第一模态表现为冬－夏振荡型，反映了冬季有效波高的分布特征及海面风场对有效波高分布的影响。第二模态表现为春－秋振荡，反映了季风转换过渡时期有效波高偏差的分布特征。第三模态反映了中国海地形对有效波高偏差分布的影响。