Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Biophysical correlates of intrinsic and stress-induced morphological variability in lateral amygdaloid neurons: A computational study

Morphological and physiological characteristics of neurons located in the dorsolateral and two ventral subdivisions of the lateral amygdala (LA) have been compared in order to differentiate their roles in the formation and storage of fear memories (Alphs et al, SfN abs 623.1, 2003). Briefly, in these populations, significant differences are observed in input resistance, membrane time constant, firing frequency, dendritic tortuosity, numbers of primary dendrites, dendritic segments and dendritic nodes...

Improving out-domain PLDA speaker verification using unsupervised inter-dataset variability compensation approach

Experimental studies have found that when the state-of-the-art probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) speaker verification systems are trained using out-domain data, it significantly affects speaker verification performance due to the mismatch between development data and evaluation data. To overcome this problem we propose a novel unsupervised inter dataset variability (IDV) compensation approach to compensate the dataset mismatch. IDV-compensated PLDA system achieves over 10% relative improvement in EER values over out-domain PLDA system by effectively compensating the mismatch between in-domain and out-domain data.

Influence of pollutant build-up on variability in wash-off from urban road surfaces

Variability in the pollutant wash-off process is a concept which needs to be understood in-depth in order to better assess the outcomes of stormwater quality models, and thereby strengthen stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. Current knowledge about the wash-off process does not extend to a clear understanding of the influence of the initially available pollutant build-up on the variability of the pollutant wash-off load and composition. Consequently, pollutant wash-off process variability is poorly characterised in stormwater quality models, which can result in inaccurate stormwater quality predictions. Mathematical simulation of particulate wash-off from three urban road surfaces confirmed that the wash-off load of particle size fractions <150µm and >150µm after a storm event vary with the build-up of the respective particle size fractions available at the beginning of the storm event. Furthermore, pollutant load and composition associated with the initially available build-up of <150µm particles predominantly influence the variability in washed-off pollutant load and composition. The influence of the build-up of pollutants associated with >150µm particles on wash-off process variability is significant only for relatively shorter duration storm events.

Mapping the regional influence of genetics on brain structure variability - A Tensor-Based Morphometry study

Genetic and environmental factors influence brain structure and function profoundly. The search for heritable anatomical features and their influencing genes would be accelerated with detailed 3D maps showing the degree to which brain morphometry is genetically determined. As part of an MRI study that will scan 1150 twins, we applied Tensor-Based Morphometry to compute morphometric differences in 23 pairs of identical twins and 23 pairs of same-sex fraternal twins (mean age: 23.8 ± 1.8 SD years). All 92 twins' 3D brain MRI scans were nonlinearly registered to a common space using a Riemannian fluid-based warping approach to compute volumetric differences across subjects. A multi-template method was used to improve volume quantification. Vector fields driving each subject's anatomy onto the common template were analyzed to create maps of local volumetric excesses and deficits relative to the standard template. Using a new structural equation modeling method, we computed the voxelwise proportion of variance in volumes attributable to additive (A) or dominant (D) genetic factors versus shared environmental (C) or unique environmental factors (E). The method was also applied to various anatomical regions of interest (ROIs). As hypothesized, the overall volumes of the brain, basal ganglia, thalamus, and each lobe were under strong genetic control; local white matter volumes were mostly controlled by common environment. After adjusting for individual differences in overall brain scale, genetic influences were still relatively high in the corpus callosum and in early-maturing brain regions such as the occipital lobes, while environmental influences were greater in frontal brain regions that have a more protracted maturational time-course.

Incorporating process variability into stormwater quality modelling

Process variability in pollutant build-up and wash-off generates inherent uncertainty that affects the outcomes of stormwater quality models. Poor characterisation of process variability constrains the accurate accounting of the uncertainty associated with pollutant processes. This acts as a significant limitation to effective decision making in relation to stormwater pollution mitigation. The study undertaken developed three theoretical scenarios based on research findings that variations in particle size fractions <150µm and >150µm during pollutant build-up and wash-off primarily determine the variability associated with these processes. These scenarios, which combine pollutant build-up and wash-off processes that takes place on a continuous timeline, are able to explain process variability under different field conditions. Given the variability characteristics of a specific build-up or wash-off event, the theoretical scenarios help to infer the variability characteristics of the associated pollutant process that follows. Mathematical formulation of the theoretical scenarios enables the incorporation of variability characteristics of pollutant build-up and wash-off processes in stormwater quality models. The research study outcomes will contribute to the quantitative assessment of uncertainty as an integral part of the interpretation of stormwater quality modelling outcomes.

Rainfall variability drives interannual variation in N2O emissions from a humid, subtropical pasture

Variations in interannual rainfall totals can lead to large uncertainties in annual N2O emission budget estimates from short term field studies. The interannual variation in nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from a subtropical pasture in Queensland, Australia, was examined using continuous measurements of automated chambers over 2 consecutive years. Nitrous oxide emissions were highest during the summer months and were highly episodic, related more to the size and distribution of rain events than soil water content. Over 48% of the total N2O emitted was lost in just 16% of measurement days. Interannual variation in annual N2O estimates was high, with cumulative emissions increasing with decreasing rainfall. Cumulative emissions averaged 1826.7 ± 199.9 g N2O-N ha−1 yr−1 over the two year period, though emissions from 2008 (2148 ± 273 g N2O-N ha−1 yr−1) were 42% higher than 2007 (1504 ± 126 g N2O-N ha−1 yr−1). This increase in annual emissions coincided with almost half of the summer precipitation from 2007 to 2008. Emissions dynamics were chiefly driven by the distribution and size of rain events which varied on a seasonal and annual basis. Sampling frequency effects on cumulative N2O flux estimation were assessed using a jackknife technique to inform future manual sampling campaigns. Test subsets of the daily measured data were generated for the pasture and two adjacent land-uses (rainforest and lychee orchard) by selecting measured flux values at regular time intervals ranging from 1 to 30 days. Errors associated with weekly sampling were up to 34% of the sub-daily mean and were highly biased towards overestimation if strategically sampled following rain events. Sampling time of day also played a critical role. Morning sampling best represented the 24 hour mean in the pasture, whereas sampling at noon proved the most accurate in the shaded rainforest and lychee orchard.

Quantification of stability in an agility drill using linear and nonlinear measures of variability

This study implemented linear and nonlinear methods of measuring variability to determine differences in stability of two groups of skilled (n = 10) and unskilled (n = 10) participants performing 3m forward/backward shuttle agility drill. We also determined whether stability measures differed between the forward and backward segments of the drill. Finally, we sought to investigate whether local dynamic stability, measured using largest finite-time Lyapunov exponents, changed from distal to proximal lower extremity segments. Three-dimensional coordinates of five lower extremity markers data were recorded. Results revealed that the Lyapunov exponents were lower (P < 0.05) for skilled participants at all joint markers indicative of higher levels of local dynamic stability. Additionally, stability of motion did not differ between forward and backward segments of the drill (P > 0.05), signifying that almost the same control strategy was used in forward and backward directions by all participants, regardless of skill level. Furthermore, local dynamic stability increased from distal to proximal joints (P < 0.05) indicating that stability of proximal segments are prioritized by the neuromuscular control system. Finally, skilled participants displayed greater foot placement standard deviation values (P < 0.05), indicative of adaptation to task constraints. The results of this study provide new methods for sport scientists, coaches to characterize stability in agility drill performance.

Increasing functional variability in the preparatory phase of the takeoff improves elite springboard diving performance

PURPOSE: Previous research demonstrating that specific performance outcome goals can be achieved in different ways is functionally significant for springboard divers whose performance environment can vary extensively. This body of work raises questions about the traditional approach of balking (terminating the takeoff) by elite divers aiming to perform only identical, invariant movement patterns during practice. METHOD: A 12-week training program (2 times per day; 6.5 hr per day) was implemented with 4 elite female springboard divers to encourage them to adapt movement patterns under variable takeoff conditions and complete intended dives, rather than balk. RESULTS: Intraindividual analyses revealed small increases in variability in the board-work component of each diver's pretraining and posttraining program reverse-dive takeoffs. No topological differences were observed between movement patterns of dives completed pretraining and posttraining. Differences were noted in the amount of movement variability under different training conditions (evidenced by higher normalized root mean square error indexes posttraining). An increase in the number of completed dives (from 78.91%-86.84% to 95.59%-99.29%) and a decrease in the frequency of balked takeoffs (from 13.16%-19.41% to 0.63%-4.41%) showed that the elite athletes were able to adapt their behaviors during the training program. These findings coincided with greater consistency in the divers' performance during practice as scored by qualified judges. CONCLUSION: Results suggested that on completion of training, athletes were capable of successfully adapting their movement patterns under more varied takeoff conditions to achieve greater consistency and stability of performance outcomes.

Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation

Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration) and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+), inward rectifying K(+), L-type Ca(2+), and Na(+)/K(+) pump currents) in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al.) at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms) was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in experimentally observed intercellular variability of rabbit ventricular action potential repolarisation.

Within-Die Gate Delay Variability Measurement using Re-configurable Ring Oscillator

We report a circuit technique to measure the on-chip delay of an individual logic gate (both inverting and non-inverting) in its unmodified form using digitally reconfigurable ring oscillator (RO). Solving a system of linear equations with different configuration setting of the RO gives delay of an individual gate. Experimental results from a test chip in 65nm process node show the feasibility of measuring the delay of an individual inverter to within 1pS accuracy. Delay measurements of different nominally identical inverters in close physical proximity show variations of up to 26% indicating the large impact of local or within-die variations.

Hydroclimatic influence of large-scale circulation on the variability of reservoir inflow

In this study, the nature of basin-scale hydroclimatic association for Indian subcontinent is investigated. It is found that, the large-scale circulation information from Indian Ocean is also equally important in addition to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), owing to the geographical location of Indian subcontinent. The hydroclimatic association of the variation of monsoon inflow into the Hirakud reservoir in India is investigated using ENSO and EQUatorial INdian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO, the atmospheric part of Indian Ocean Dipole mode) as the large-scale circulation information from tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean regions respectively. Individual associations of ENSO & EQUINOO indices with inflow into Hirakud reservoir are also assessed and found to be weak. However, the association of inflows into Hirakud reservoir with the composite index (CI) of ENSO and EQUINOO is quite strong. Thus, the large-scale circulation information from Indian Ocean is also important apart form the ENSO. The potential of the combined information of ENSO and EQUINOO for predicting the inflows during monsoon is also investigated with promising results. The results of this study will be helpful to water resources managers due to fact that the nature of monsoon inflow is becoming available as an early prediction.

Spatial Variability of the Depth of Weathered and Engineering Bedrock using Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave Method

In this paper an attempt has been made to evaluate the spatial variability of the depth of weathered and engineering bedrock in Bangalore, south India using Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) survey. One-dimensional MASW survey has been carried out at 58 locations and shear-wave velocities are measured. Using velocity profiles, the depth of weathered rock and engineering rock surface levels has been determined. Based on the literature, shear-wave velocity of 330 ± 30 m/s for weathered rock or soft rock and 760 ± 60 m/s for engineering rock or hard rock has been considered. Depths corresponding to these velocity ranges are evaluated with respect to ground contour levels and top surface levels have been mapped with an interpolation technique using natural neighborhood. The depth of weathered rock varies from 1 m to about 21 m. In 58 testing locations, only 42 locations reached the depths which have a shear-wave velocity of more than 760 ± 60 m/s. The depth of engineering rock is evaluated from these data and it varies from 1 m to about 50 m. Further, these rock depths have been compared with a subsurface profile obtained from a two-dimensional (2-D) MASW survey at 20 locations and a few selected available bore logs from the deep geotechnical boreholes.

Accounting for individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth model

Estimation of von Bertalanffy growth parameters has received considerable attention in fisheries research. Since Sainsbury (1980, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 37: 241-247) much of this research effort has centered on accounting for individual variability in the growth parameters. In this paper we demonstrate that, in analysis of tagging data, Sainsbury's method and its derivatives do not, in general, satisfactorily account for individual variability in growth, leading to inconsistent parameter estimates (the bias does not tend to zero as sample size increases to infinity). The bias arises because these methods do not use appropriate conditional expectations as a basis for estimation. This bias is found to be similar to that of the Fabens method. Such methods would be appropriate only under the assumption that the individual growth parameters that generate the growth increment were independent of the growth parameters that generated the initial length. However, such an assumption would be unrealistic. The results are derived analytically, and illustrated with a simulation study. Until techniques that take full account of the appropriate conditioning have been developed, the effect of individual variability on growth has yet to be fully understood.

Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.