Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Uncertainty avoidance: public sector clients and procurement selection

Purpose: Choosing the appropriate procurement system for construction projects is a complex and challenging task for clients particularly when professional advice has not been sought. To assist with the decision making process, a range of procurement selection tools and techniques have been developed by both academic and industry bodies. Public sector clients in Western Australia (WA) remain uncertain about the pairing of procurement method to bespoke construction project and how this decision will ultimately impact upon project success. This paper examines ‘how and why’ a public sector agency selected particular procurement methods. · Methodology/Approach: An analysis of two focus group workshops (with 18 senior project and policy managers involved with procurement selection) is reported upon · Findings: The traditional lump sum (TLS) method is still the preferred procurement path even though alternative forms such as design and construct, public-private-partnerships could optimize the project outcome. Paradoxically, workshop participants agreed that alternative procurement forms should be considered, but an embedded culture of uncertainty avoidance invariably meant that TLS methods were selected. Senior managers felt that only a limited number of contractors have the resources and experience to deliver projects using the nontraditional methods considered. · Research limitations/implications: The research identifies a need to develop a framework that public sector clients can use to select an appropriate procurement method. A procurement framework should be able to guide the decision-maker rather than provide a prescriptive solution. Learning from previous experiences with regard to procurement selection will further provide public sector clients with knowledge about how to best deliver their projects.

Engaging, enraging public relations and the role of the other

The intention of this paper is to further the discussion around the development of theories of public relations by introducing to the mix the concept of the Other from the field of cultural studies. The development of discipline-specific theories as part of a “scholarly body of knowledge” (Wylie, 1994, p.2) – or at least a “unique” knowledge base (Parkinson, 2001) – has been suggested as one of the defining characteristics of a true profession. In the case of public relations, this is a development that has occurred relatively recently. Since public relations first began to emerge as a distinct practice in the early part of the 20th century, there has been a tendency to appropriate theories from other areas (such as organisational and media studies) to create a relevant theory base to explore, describe and predict public relations activities. However, these theories were often rarely more than a ‘best fit’ solution, and resulting areas of discrepancy led to much confusion surrounding the form and function of public relations. It could be argued therefore that the development of dedicated public relations theory – ideas that encompass the creation, maintenance and enhancement of relationships between organisations and publics as primary motivations – only began in the latter half of the 20th century with the work of people such as Grunig and Hunt, and latterly Ledingham and Bruning among others.

WorkChoices, ImageChoices and the marketing of new industrial relations legislation

This article takes a critical discourse approach to one aspect of the Australian WorkChoices industrial relations legislation: the government’s major advertisement published in national newspapers in late 2005 and released simultaneously as a 16-page booklet. This strategic move was the initial stage of one of the largest ‘information’ campaigns ever mounted by an Australian government, costing more than $AUD137 million. This article analyse the semiotic (visual and graphic) elements of the advertisement to uncover what these elements contribute to the message, particularly through their construction of both an image of the legislation and a portrayal of the Australian worker. We argue for the need to fuse approaches from critical discourse studies and social semiotics to deepen understanding of industrial relations phenomena such as the ‘hard sell’ to win the hearts and minds of citizens regarding unpopular new legislation.

The reputation of the corporate social responsibility industry in Australia

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is increasingly seen as an imperative for sustainable business and there is a growing literature on the effect of CSR on corporate reputation. Despite this, a pall of ambiguity and uncertainty remains around what CSR means and how it should be practiced. This paper offers a unique addition to the body of literature to date by revealing that CSR is an emerging industry in Australia, which is in the process of developing its own reputation as a set of business practices. The paper is based on exploratory qualitative research using a case study methodology. Interviews were conducted with key actors within the industry to investigate shared understandings of what CSR means, perceptions of CSR practice and of the industry as a whole, and who is involved in shaping these perceptions. The research revealed that the CSR industry in Australia is in its early stages of development and is therefore in need of increased internal cooperation if it is to develop a strong reputation.

How to progress forward in improving safety outcomes in the work-related driving field : a review of work-related driving research and development of an intervention framework [Extended abstract]

Road crashes are now the most common cause of work-related injury, death and absence in a number of countries. Given the impact of workrelated driving crashes on social and economic aspects of business and the community, workrelated road safety and risk management has received increasing attention in recent years. However, limited academic research has progressed on improving safety within the work-related driving sector. The aim of this paper is to present a review of work-related driving safety research to date, and provide an intervention framework for the future development and implementation of workrelated driving safety intervention strategies.

The interactions of consumption characteristics on social norms

Purpose: An extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model tests how customer loyalty intentions may relate to subjective and descriptive norms. The study further determines whether consumption characteristics – product enjoyment and importance – moderate norms-loyalty relationships.----- Methodology: Using a two-study approach focusing on youth, an Australian study (n = 244) first augmented TPB with descriptive norm. A Singapore study (n = 415) followed up with how consumption characteristics might moderate norms-loyalty relationships. With both studies, linear regressions tested the relationships among the variables.----- Findings: Extending TPB with descriptive norm improved TPB’s predictive ability across studies. Further, product enjoyment and importance moderated the norms-loyalty relationships differently. Subjective norm related to loyalty intentions significantly with high enjoyment, whereas descriptive norm was significant with low enjoyment. Only subjective norm was significant with low importance.----- Research limitations: Single-item variables, self-reported questionnaires on intended rather than actual behavior, and not controlling for cultural differences between the two samples limit generalizablity.----- Practical implications: The significance of both norms suggests that mobile firms should reach youth through their peers. With youth, social pressure may be influential particularly with hedonic products. However, the different moderations of product enjoyment and importance imply that a blanket marketing strategy targeting youth may not work.----- Originality/Value: This study extends academic knowledge on the relationships between norms and customer loyalty, particularly with consumption characteristics as moderators. The findings highlight the importance of considering different norms with consumer behavior. The study should help mobile firms understand how social influences impact customer loyalty.

Development of the benefit finding in multiple sclerosis (MS) caregiving scale: A longitudinal study of relations between benefit finding and adjustment

Benefit finding is a meaning making construct that has been shown to be related to adjustment in people with MS and their carers. This study investigated the dimensions, stability and potency of benefit finding in predicting adjustment over a 12 month interval using a newly developed Benefit Finding in Multiple Sclerosis Scale (BFiMSS). Usable data from 388 persons with MS and 232 carers was obtained from questionnaires completed at Time 1 and 12 months later (Time 2). Factor analysis of the BFiMSS revealed seven psychometrically sound factors: Compassion/Empathy, Spiritual Growth, Mindfulness, Family Relations Growth, Life Style Gains, Personal Growth, New Opportunities. BFiMSS total and factors showed satisfactory internal and retest reliability coefficients, and convergent, criterion and external validity. Results of regression analyses indicated that the Time 1 BFiMSS factors accounted for significant amounts of variance in each of the Time 2 adjustment outcomes (positive states of mind, positive affect, anxiety, depression) after controlling for Time 1 adjustment, and relevant demographic and illness variables. Findings delineate the dimensional structure of benefit finding in MS, the differential links between benefit finding dimensions and adjustment and the temporal unfolding of benefit finding in chronic illness.

Visualisation of Information Uncertainty : Progress and Challenges

Information uncertainty which is inherent in many real world applications brings more complexity to the visualisation problem. Despite the increasing number of research papers found in the literature, much more work is needed. The aims of this chapter are threefold: (1) to provide a comprehensive analysis of the requirements of visualisation of information uncertainty and their dimensions of complexity; (2) to review and assess current progress; and (3) to discuss remaining research challenges. We focus on four areas: information uncertainty modelling, visualisation techniques, management of information uncertainty modelling, propagation and visualisation, and the uptake of uncertainty visualisation in application domains.

Uncertainty budget in the measurement of typical airborne number, surface area and mass particle distributions

The effects of particulate matter on environment and public health have been widely studied in recent years. A number of studies in the medical field have tried to identify the specific effect on human health of particulate exposure, but agreement amongst these studies on the relative importance of the particles’ size and its origin with respect to health effects is still lacking. Nevertheless, air quality standards are moving, as the epidemiological attention, towards greater focus on the smaller particles. Current air quality standards only regulate the mass of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The most reliable method used in measuring Total Suspended Particles (TSP), PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 is the gravimetric method since it directly measures PM concentration, guaranteeing an effective traceability to international standards. This technique however, neglects the possibility to correlate short term intra-day variations of atmospheric parameters that can influence ambient particle concentration and size distribution (emission strengths of particle sources, temperature, relative humidity, wind direction and speed and mixing height) as well as human activity patterns that may also vary over time periods considerably shorter than 24 hours. A continuous method to measure the number size distribution and total number concentration in the range 0.014 – 20 μm is the tandem system constituted by a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) and an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS). In this paper, an uncertainty budget model of the measurement of airborne particle number, surface area and mass size distributions is proposed and applied for several typical aerosol size distributions. The estimation of such an uncertainty budget presents several difficulties due to i) the complexity of the measurement chain, ii) the fact that SMPS and APS can properly guarantee the traceability to the International System of Measurements only in terms of number concentration. In fact, the surface area and mass concentration must be estimated on the basis of separately determined average density and particle morphology. Keywords: SMPS-APS tandem system, gravimetric reference method, uncertainty budget, ultrafine particles.

Disclosing donation decisions : the role of organ donor prototypes in an extended theory of planned behaviour

This study explored the role of donor prototype evaluations (perceptions of the typical organ donor) in organ donation communication decisions using an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model. The model incorporated attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, moral norm, self-identity, and donor prototype evaluations to predict intentions to record consent on an organ donor register and discuss the organ donation decision with significant others. Participants completed surveys assessing the extended TPB constructs related to registering (n = 359) and discussing (n = 282). Results supported a role for donor prototype evaluations in predicting discussing intentions only. Both extended TPB structural equation models were a good fit to the data, accounting for 74 and 76% of the variance in registering and discussing intentions, respectively. Participants’ self-reported discussing behaviour (but not registering behaviour given low numbers of behavioural performers) was assessed 4 weeks later, with discussing intention as the only significant predictor of behaviour (Nagelkerke R2 = 0.11). These findings highlight the impact of people's perceptions of a typical donor on their decisions to discuss their organ donation preference, assisting our understanding of the factors influencing individuals' communication processes in efforts to bridge the gap between organ supply and demand.

Graduate Attribute Mapping With the Extended CDIO Framework

The CDIO (Conceive-Design-Implement-Operate) Initiative has been globally recognised as an enabler for engineering education reform. With the CDIO process, the CDIO Standards and the CDIO Syllabus, many scholarly contributions have been made around cultural change, curriculum reform and learning environments. In the Australasian region, reform is gaining significant momentum within the engineering education community, the profession, and higher education institutions. This paper presents the CDIO Syllabus cast into the Australian context by mapping it to the Engineers Australia Graduate Attributes, the Washington Accord Graduate Attributes and the Queensland University of Technology Graduate Capabilities. Furthermore, in recognition that many secondary schools and technical training institutions offer introductory engineering technology subjects, this paper presents an extended self-rating framework suited for recognising developing levels of proficiency at a preparatory level. A demonstrator mapping tool has been created to demonstrate the application of this extended graduate attribute mapping framework as a precursor to an integrated curriculum information model.

An extended CDIO syllabus framework with preparatory engineering proficiencies

The CDIO Initiative has been globally recognised as an enabler for engineering education reform. With the CDIO process, the CDIO Standards and the CDIO Syllabus, many scholarly contributions have been made around cultural change, curriculum reform and learning environments. In the Australasian region, reform is gaining significant momentum within the engineering education community, the profession, and higher education institutions. This paper presents the CDIO Syllabus cast into the Australian context by mapping it to the Engineers Australia Graduate Attributes, the Washington Accord Graduate Attributes and the Queensland University of Technology Graduate Capabilities. Furthermore, in recognition that many secondary schools and technical training institutions offer introductory engineering technology subjects, this paper presents an extended self-rating framework suited for recognising developing levels of proficiency at a preparatory level. The framework is consistent with conventional application to undergraduate programs and professional practice, but adapted for the preparatory context. As with the original CDIO framework with proficiency levels, this extended framework is informed by Bloom’s Educational Objectives. A proficiency evaluation of Queensland Study Authority’s Engineering Technology senior syllabus is demonstrated indicating proficiency levels embedded within this secondary school subject within a preparatory scope. Through this extended CDIO framework, students and faculty have greater awareness and access to tools to promote (i) student engagement in their own graduate capability development, (ii) faculty engagement in course and program design, through greater transparency and utility of the continuum of graduate capability development with associate levels of proficiency, and the context in which they exist in terms of pre-tertiary engineering studies; and (iii) course maintenance and quality audit methodology for the purpose of continuous improvement processes and program accreditation.

The role of self-efficacy in dental patients’ brushing and flossing: Testing an extended Health Belief Model

Objective: In an effort to examine the decreasing oral health trend of Australian dental patients, the Health Belief Model (HBM) was utilised to understand the beliefs underlying brushing and flossing self-care. The HBM states that perception of severity and susceptibility to inaction and an estimate of the barriers and benefits of behavioural performance influences people’s health behaviours. Self-efficacy, confidence in one’s ability to perform oral self-care, was also examined. Methods: In dental waiting rooms, a community sample (N = 92) of dental patients completed a questionnaire assessing HBM variables and self-efficacy, as well as their performance of the oral hygiene behaviours of brushing and flossing. Results: Partial support only was found for the HBM with barriers emerging as the sole HBM factor influencing brushing and flossing behaviours. Self-efficacy significantly predicted both oral hygiene behaviours also. Conclusion: Support was found for the control factors, specifically a consideration of barriers and self-efficacy, in the context of understanding dental patients’ oral hygiene decisions. Practice implications: Dental professionals should encourage patients’ self-confidence to brush and floss at recommended levels and discuss strategies that combat barriers to performance, rather than emphasising the risks of inaction or the benefits of oral self-care.