Projectes de modelatge i simulació avançada de sistemes mitjançant l'entorn ARENA

RESUM En l’exercici de les funcions típiques de qualsevol activitat humana, l’home ha de prendre decisions d’un o altre tipus permanentment i aquesta situació porta afegit, per lo general risc i incertesa, el que compromet la qualitat i l’èxit de la decisió. Per ajudar i contrarestar aquesta situació, l’home ha desenvolupat a través del temps una diversitat d’eines que li permeten minimitzar el risc i la incertesa en la presa de decisions. La simulació és una d’aquestes eines. Mitjançant la seva aplicació no només s’aconsegueix la comesa anterior, sinó que també es minimitzen els costos involucrats en la decisió mitjançant un millor ús dels recursos, la disminució del temps emprat per a la seva realització i la minimització de les probabilitats de risc. Aquest projecte representa la continuació d’un primer estudi introductori de la simulació anomenat: Estudi i guia docent per a modelatge i simulació de sistemes mitjançant l’entorn ARENA [9]. Realitzat per l’alumna d’Enginyeria en Organització Industrial de la Universitat de Vic, Montse Carbonell Crosas, l’any 2008 i sota la codirecció del director d’aquest segon projecte, el professor Juli Ordeix Rigo. Aquest nou projecte s’inicia amb una primera part teòrica, continguda dins del primer volum, la qual reforça els conceptes teòrics referents a la simulació amb ARENA, ja vistos en l’anterior projecte. Complementant aquells considerats bàsics i els de més utilitat i finalitza introduint nous conceptes avançats. Els nous capítols de temàtica avançada, junt als primers més bàsics de la primera part són exercitats dins de la segona, formant el segon volum d’aquest projecte. El mateix requereix la participació activa de l’alumne, per tal de realitzar cadascun dels 89 exercicis pràctics que es plantegen i poder onsolidar l’aprenentatge teòric d’aquesta eina avançada de simulació fent consultes als apartats teòrics recomanats dins de cada exercici. La complexitat dels exercicis anirà augmentant gradualment i s’insisteix en seguir la metodologia presentada en el projecte per a realitzar-los tots de forma ordenada i ascendent. L’ alumne quan acabi la part pràctica, haurà consolidat tota la part teòrica i serà capaç d’exercir com analista per tal de generar els seus propis projecte de simulació.

An operator formulation of the multiscale finite-volume method with correction function

The multiscale finite-volume (MSFV) method has been derived to efficiently solve large problems with spatially varying coefficients. The fine-scale problem is subdivided into local problems that can be solved separately and are coupled by a global problem. This algorithm, in consequence, shares some characteristics with two-level domain decomposition (DD) methods. However, the MSFV algorithm is different in that it incorporates a flux reconstruction step, which delivers a fine-scale mass conservative flux field without the need for iterating. This is achieved by the use of two overlapping coarse grids. The recently introduced correction function allows for a consistent handling of source terms, which makes the MSFV method a flexible algorithm that is applicable to a wide spectrum of problems. It is demonstrated that the MSFV operator, used to compute an approximate pressure solution, can be equivalently constructed by writing the Schur complement with a tangential approximation of a single-cell overlapping grid and incorporation of appropriate coarse-scale mass-balance equations.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Projectes de modelatge i simulació avançada de sistemes mitjançant l'entorn ARENA

En l’exercici de les funcions típiques de qualsevol activitat humana, l’home ha de prendre decisions d’un o altre tipus permanentment i aquesta situació porta afegit, per lo general risc i incertesa, el que compromet la qualitat i l’èxit de la decisió. Per ajudar i contrarestar aquesta situació, l’home ha desenvolupat a través del temps una diversitat d’eines que li permeten minimitzar el risc i la incertesa en la presa de decisions. La simulació és una d’aquestes eines. Mitjançant la seva aplicació no només s’aconsegueix la comesa anterior, sinó que també es minimitzen els costos involucrats en la decisió mitjançant un millor ús dels recursos, la disminució del temps emprat per a la seva realització i la minimització de les probabilitats de risc. Aquest projecte representa la continuació d’un primer estudi introductori de la simulació anomenat: Estudi i guia docent per a modelatge i simulació de sistemes mitjançant l’entorn ARENA [9]. Realitzat per l’alumna d’Enginyeria en Organització Industrial de la Universitat de Vic, Montse Carbonell Crosas, l’any 2008 i sota la codirecció del director d’aquest segon projecte, el professor Juli Ordeix Rigo. Aquest nou projecte s’inicia amb una primera part teòrica, continguda dins del primer volum, la qual reforça els conceptes teòrics referents a la simulació amb ARENA, ja vistos en l’anterior projecte. Complementant aquells considerats bàsics i els de més utilitat i finalitza introduint nous conceptes avançats. Els nous capítols de temàtica avançada, junt als primers més bàsics de la primera part són exercitats dins de la segona, formant el segon volum d’aquest projecte. El mateix requereix la participació activa de l’alumne, per tal de realitzar cadascun dels 89 exercicis pràctics que es plantegen i poder onsolidar l’aprenentatge teòric d’aquesta eina avançada de simulació fent consultes als apartats teòrics recomanats dins de cada exercici. La complexitat dels exercicis anirà augmentant gradualment i s’insisteix en seguir la metodologia presentada en el projecte per a realitzar-los tots de forma ordenada i ascendent. L’ alumne quan acabi la part pràctica, haurà consolidat tota la part teòrica i serà capaç d’exercir com analista per tal de generar els seus propis projecte de simulació.

Estado situacional de los modelos basados en agentes y su impacto en la investigación organizacional

En un mundo hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre como el actual, los métodos y modelos analíticos convencionales están mostrando sus limitaciones. Las organizaciones requieren, por tanto, herramientas útiles que empleen tecnología de información y modelos de simulación computacional como mecanismos para la toma de decisiones y la resolución de problemas. Una de las más recientes, potentes y prometedoras es el modelamiento y la simulación basados en agentes (MSBA). Muchas organizaciones, incluidas empresas consultoras, emplean esta técnica para comprender fenómenos, hacer evaluación de estrategias y resolver problemas de diversa índole. Pese a ello, no existe (hasta donde conocemos) un estado situacional acerca del MSBA y su aplicación a la investigación organizacional. Cabe anotar, además, que por su novedad no es un tema suficientemente difundido y trabajado en Latinoamérica. En consecuencia, este proyecto pretende elaborar un estado situacional sobre el MSBA y su impacto sobre la investigación organizacional.

Efficient 3D scene modeling and mosaicing

El modelat d'escenes és clau en un gran ventall d'aplicacions que van des de la generació mapes fins a la realitat augmentada. Aquesta tesis presenta una solució completa per a la creació de models 3D amb textura. En primer lloc es presenta un mètode de Structure from Motion seqüencial, a on el model 3D de l'entorn s'actualitza a mesura que s'adquireix nova informació visual. La proposta és més precisa i robusta que l'estat de l'art. També s'ha desenvolupat un mètode online, basat en visual bag-of-words, per a la detecció eficient de llaços. Essent una tècnica completament seqüencial i automàtica, permet la reducció de deriva, millorant la navegació i construcció de mapes. Per tal de construir mapes en àrees extenses, es proposa un algorisme de simplificació de models 3D, orientat a aplicacions online. L'eficiència de les propostes s'ha comparat amb altres mètodes utilitzant diversos conjunts de dades submarines i terrestres.

Design, testing, and simulation of fibre composite leaf springs for heavy axle loads

This paper summarizes the design, manufacturing, testing, and finite element analysis (FEA) of glass-fibre-reinforced polyester leaf springs for rail freight vehicles. FEA predictions of load-deflection curves under static loading are presented, together with comparisons with test results. Bending stress distribution at typical load conditions is plotted for the springs. The springs have been mounted on a real wagon and drop tests at tare and full load have been carried out on a purpose-built shaker rig. The transient response of the springs from tests and FEA is presented and discussed.

Ecological niche modeling and principal component analysis of Krameria Loefl. (Krameriaceae)

Krameria plants are found in arid regions of the Americas and present a floral system that attracts oil-collecting bees. Niche modeling and multivariate tools were applied to examine ecological and geographical aspects of the 18 species of this genus, using occurrence data obtained from herbaria and literature. Niche modeling showed the potential areas of occurrence for each species and the analysis of climatic variables suggested that North American species occur mostly in deserted or xeric ecoregions with monthly precipitation below 140 mm and large temperature ranges. South American species are mainly found in deserted ecoregions and subtropical savannas where monthly precipitation often exceeds 150 mm and temperature ranges are smaller. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) performed with values of temperature and precipitation showed that the distribution limits of Krameria species are primarily associated with maximum and minimum temperatures. Modeling of Krameria species proved to be a useful tool for analyzing the influence of the ecological niche variables in the geographical distribution of species, providing new information to guide future investigations. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Análise paramétrica do método de injeção alternada de água e CO2(WAG) em reservatórios de petróleo

After the decline of production from natural energy of the reservoir, the methods of enhanced oil recovery, which methods result from the application of special processes such as chemical injection, miscible gases, thermal and others can be applied. The advanced recovery method with alternating - CO2 injection WAG uses the injection of water and gas, normally miscible that will come in contact with the stock oil. In Brazil with the discovery of pre-salt layer that gas gained prominence. The amount of CO2 present in the oil produced in the pre-salt layer, as well as some reservoirs is one of the challenges to be overcome in relation to sustainable production once this gas needs to be processed in some way. Many targets for CO2 are proposed by researchers to describe some alternatives to the use of CO2 gas produced such as enhanced recovery, storage depleted fields, salt caverns storage and marketing of CO2 even in plants. The largest oil discoveries in Brazil have recently been made by Petrobras in the pre -salt layer located between the states of Santa Catarina and Espírito Santo, where he met large volumes of light oil with a density of approximately 28 ° API, low acidity and low sulfur content. This oil that has a large amount of dissolved CO2 and thus a pioneering solution for the fate of this gas comes with an advanced recovery. The objective of this research is to analyze which parameters had the greatest influence on the enhanced recovery process. The simulations were performed using the "GEM" module of the Computer Modelling Group, with the aim of studying the advanced recovery method in question. For this work, semi - synthetic models were used with reservoir and fluid data that can be extrapolated to practical situations in the Brazilian Northeast. The results showed the influence of the alternating injection of water and gas on the recovery factor and flow rate of oil production process, when compared to primary recovery and continuous water injection or continuous gas injection

Desenvolvimento de um simulador de bombeio por cavidades progressivas

The method of artificial lift of progressing cavity pump is very efficient in the production of oils with high viscosity and oils that carry a great amount of sand. This characteristic converted this lift method into the second most useful one in oil fields production. As it grows the number of its applications it also increases the necessity to dominate its work in a way to define it the best operational set point. To contribute to the knowledge of the operational method of artificial lift of progressing cavity pump, this work intends to develop a computational simulator for oil wells equipped with an artificial lift system. The computational simulator of the system will be able to represent its dynamic behavior when submitted to the various operational conditions. The system was divided into five subsystems: induction motor, multiphase flows into production tubing, rod string, progressing cavity pump and annular tubing-casing. The modeling and simulation of each subsystem permitted to evaluate the dynamic characteristics that defined the criteria connections. With the connections of the subsystems it was possible to obtain the dynamic characteristics of the most important arrays belonging to the system, such as: pressure discharge, pressure intake, pumping rate, rod string rotation and torque applied to polish string. The shown results added to a friendly graphical interface converted the PCP simulator in a great potential tool with a didactic characteristic in serving the technical capability for the system operators and also permitting the production engineering to achieve a more detail analysis of the dynamic operational oil wells equipped with the progressing cavity pump

Otimização da injeção cíclica de vapor em reservatório de óleo pesado

Thermal methods made heavy oil production possible in fields where primary recovery failed. Throughout the years steam injection became one of the most important alternatives to increase heavy oil recovery. There are many types of steam injection, and one of them is the cyclic steam injection, which has been used with success in several countries, including Brazil. The process involves three phases: firstly, steam is injected, inside of the producing well; secondly, the well is closed (soak period); and finally, the well is put back into production. These steps constitute one cycle. The cycle is repeated several times until economical production limit is reached. Usually, independent of reservoir type, as the number of cycles increases the cyclic injection turns less efficient. This work aims to analyze rock and reservoir property influence in the cyclic steam injection. The objective was to study the ideal number of cycles and, consequently, process optimization. Simulations were realized using the STARS simulator from the CMG group based in a proposed reservoir model. It was observed that the reservoir thickness was the most important parameter in the process performance, whilst soaking time influence was not significant

Determinação de dados de equilíbrio líquido-vapor a altas pressões para sistemas de hidrocarbonetos assimétricos

Crude oil is a complex liquid mixture of organic and inorganic compounds that are dominated by hydrocarbons. It is a mixture of alkanes from the simplest to more complex aromatic compounds that are present derivatives such as gasoline, diesel, alcohol, kerosene, naphtha, etc.. These derivatives are extracted from any oil, however, only with a very high quality, in other words, when the content of hydrocarbons of low molecular weight is high means that production of these compounds is feasible. The American Petroleum Institute (API) developed a classification system for the various types of oil. In Brazil, the quality of most of the oil taken from wells is very low, so it is necessary to generate new technology to develop best practices for refining in order to produce petroleum products of higher commercial value. Therefore, it is necessary to study the thermodynamic equilibrium properties of its derivative compounds of interest. This dissertation aims to determine vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE) data for the systems Phenilcyclohexane - CO2, and Cyclohexane - Phenilcyclohexane - CO2 at high pressure and temperatures between 30 to 70oC. Furthermore, comparisons between measured VLE experimental data from this work and from the literature in relation to the Peng- Robinson molecular thermodynamic model, using a simulation program SPECS IVCSEP v5.60 and two adjustable interaction parameters, have been performed for modeling and simulation purposes. Finally, the developed apparatus for determination of phase equilibrium data at high pressures is presented

Modelagem e simulação da deposição de parafinas em escoamento turbulento

The flow assurance has become one of the topics of greatest interest in the oil industry, mainly due to production and transportation of oil in regions with extreme temperature and pressure. In these operations the wax deposition is a commonly problem in flow of paraffinic oils, causing the rising costs of the process, due to increased energy cost of pumping, decreased production, increased pressure on the line and risk of blockage of the pipeline. In order to describe the behavior of the wax deposition phenomena in turbulent flow of paraffinic oils, under different operations conditions, in this work we developed a simulator with easy interface. For that we divided de work in four steps: (i) properties estimation (physical, thermals, of transport and thermodynamics) of n-alkanes and paraffinic mixtures by using correlations; (ii) obtainment of the solubility curve and determination the wax appearance temperature, by calculating the solid-liquid equilibrium of parafinnic systems; (iii) modelling wax deposition process, comprising momentum, mass and heat transfer; (iv) development of graphic interface in MATLAB® environment for to allow the understanding of simulation in different flow conditions as well as understand the matter of the variables (inlet temperature, external temperature, wax appearance temperature, oil composition, and time) on the behavior of the deposition process. The results showed that the simulator developed, called DepoSim, is able to calculate the profile of temperature, thickness of the deposit, and the amount of wax deposited in a simple and fast way, and also with consistent results and applicable to the operation

Isolation, homology modeling and renal effects of a C-type natriuretic peptide from the venom of the Brazilian yellow scorpion (Tityus serrulatus)

Mammalian natriuretic peptides (NPs) have been extensively investigated for use as therapeutic agents in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. Here, we describe the isolation, sequencing and tridimensional homology modeling of the first C-type natriuretic peptide isolated from scorpion venom. In addition, its effects on the renal function of rats and on the mRNA expression of natriuretic peptide receptors in the kidneys are delineated. Fractionation of Tityusserrulatus venom using chromatographic techniques yielded a peptide with a molecular mass of 2190.64Da, which exhibited the pattern of disulfide bridges that is characteristic of a C-type NP (TsNP, T. serrulatus Natriuretic Peptide). In the isolated perfused rat kidney assay, treatment with two concentrations of TsNP (0.03 and 0.1μg/mL) increased the perfusion pressure, glomerular filtration rate and urinary flow. After 60min of treatment at both concentrations, the percentages of sodium, potassium and chloride transport were decreased, and the urinary cGMP concentration was elevated. Natriuretic peptide receptor-A (NPR-A) mRNA expression was down regulated in the kidneys treated with both concentrations of TsNP, whereas NPR-B, NPR-C and CG-C mRNAs were up regulated at the 0.1μg/mL concentration. In conclusion, this work describes the isolation and modeling of the first natriuretic peptide isolated from scorpion venom. In addition, examinations of the renal actions of TsNP indicate that its effects may be related to the activation of NPR-B, NPR-C and GC-C. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Hydrodynamic modeling and morphological analysis of Lake Água Preta: one of the water sources of Belém-PA-Brazil

The main contribution from this paper includes the hydrodynamic modeling and morphological analysis of Lake Água Preta in Belém city, Pará State, Brazil. The lake bathymetry was taken through the data provided by COSANPA (the local sanitation and water supply company) dating back to 1975, and from a 2009 field study. Both bathymetries produced two terrain elevation models, which were used for morphological analysis and hydrodynamic simulations. The morphological analysis has revealed that, from 1975 to 2009, the annual mean rate of sedimentation varies between 23,065 and 29,081 m3/year. Through this result, the sedimentation time of Lake Água Preta, from 2009, has been calculated, which varies between 295 and 381 years, maintaining the same rate of sedimentation, water consumption and pumping. The hydrodynamic model simulated the depths and velocities, showing a slight flow with velocities ranging from 0 to 33 cm/s. This flow is established between water input and output of the lake, which is used as reservoir of Belém city.