Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

An examination of the dynamic relationship between self-efficacy and performance across levels of analysis and levels of specificity

This research used resource allocation theory to generate predictions regarding dynamic relationships between self-efficacy and task performance from 2 levels of analysis and specificity. Participants were given multiple trials of practice on an air traffic control task. Measures of task-specific self-efficacy and performance were taken at repeated intervals. The authors used multilevel analysis to demonstrate differential and dynamic effects. As predicted, task-specific self-efficacy was negatively associated with task performance at the within-person level. On the other hand, average levels of task-specific self-efficacy were positively related to performance at the between-persons level and mediated the effect of general self-efficacy. The key findings from this research relate to dynamic effects - these results show that self-efficacy effects can change over time, but it depends on the level of analysis and specificity at which self-efficacy is conceptualized. These novel findings emphasize the importance of conceptualizing self-efficacy within a multilevel and multispecificity framework and make a significant contribution to understanding the way this construct relates to task performance.

The impact of supply chain performance measurement systems on dynamic behaviour in supply chains

The amplification of demand variation up a supply chain widely termed ‘the Bullwhip Effect’ is disruptive, costly and something that supply chain management generally seeks to minimise. Originally attributed to poor system design; deficiencies in policies, organisation structure and delays in material and information flow all lead to sub-optimal reorder point calculation. It has since been attributed to exogenous random factors such as: uncertainties in demand, supply and distribution lead time but these causes are not exclusive as academic and operational studies since have shown that orders and/or inventories can exhibit significant variability even if customer demand and lead time are deterministic. This increase in the range of possible causes of dynamic behaviour indicates that our understanding of the phenomenon is far from complete. One possible, yet previously unexplored, factor that may influence dynamic behaviour in supply chains is the application and operation of supply chain performance measures. Organisations monitoring and responding to their adopted key performance metrics will make operational changes and this action may influence the level of dynamics within the supply chain, possibly degrading the performance of the very system they were intended to measure. In order to explore this a plausible abstraction of the operational responses to the Supply Chain Council’s SCOR® (Supply Chain Operations Reference) model was incorporated into a classic Beer Game distribution representation, using the dynamic discrete event simulation software Simul8. During the simulation the five SCOR Supply Chain Performance Attributes: Reliability, Responsiveness, Flexibility, Cost and Utilisation were continuously monitored and compared to established targets. Operational adjustments to the; reorder point, transportation modes and production capacity (where appropriate) for three independent supply chain roles were made and the degree of dynamic behaviour in the Supply Chain measured, using the ratio of the standard deviation of upstream demand relative to the standard deviation of the downstream demand. Factors employed to build the detailed model include: variable retail demand, order transmission, transportation delays, production delays, capacity constraints demand multipliers and demand averaging periods. Five dimensions of supply chain performance were monitored independently in three autonomous supply chain roles and operational settings adjusted accordingly. Uniqueness of this research stems from the application of the five SCOR performance attributes with modelled operational responses in a dynamic discrete event simulation model. This project makes its primary contribution to knowledge by measuring the impact, on supply chain dynamics, of applying a representative performance measurement system.

Tear film lipids:dynamic composition and clinical performance

Purpose: Meibomian-derived lipid secretions are well characterised but their subsequent fate in the ocular environment is less well understood. Phospholipids are thought to facilitate the interface between aqueous and lipid layers of the tear film and to be involved in ocular lubrication processes. We have extended our previous studies on phospholipid levels in the tear film to encompass the fate of polar and non-polar lipids in progressive accumulation and aging processes on both conventional and silicone-modified hydrogel lenses. This is an important aspect of the developing understanding of the role of lipids in the clinical performance of silicone hydrogels. Method: Several techniques were used to identify lipids in the tear film. Mass-spectrometric methods included Agilent 1100-based liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (LCMS) and Perkin Elmer gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS). Thin layer chromatography (TLC) was used for separation of lipids on the basis of increasing solvent polarity. Routine assay of lipid extractions from patient-worn lenses was carried out using a Hewlett Packard 1090 liquid chromatograph coupled to both uv and Agilent 1100 fluorescence detection. A range of histological together with optical, and electron microscope techniques was used in deposit analysis. Results: Progressive lipid uptake was assessed in various ways, including: composition changes with wear time, differential lipid penetrate into the lens matrix and, particularly, the extent to which lipids become unextractable as a function of wear time. Solvent-based separation and HPLC gave consistent results indicating that the polarity of lipid classes decreased as follows: phospholipids/fatty acids > triglycerides > cholesterol/cholesteryl esters. Tear lipids were found to show autofluorescence—which underpinned the value of fluorescence microscopy and fluorescence detection coupled with HPLC separation. The most fluorescent lipids were found to be cholesteryl esters; histological techniques coupled with fluorescence microscopy indicated that white spots (’’jelly bumps’’) formed on silicone hydrogel lenses contain a high proportion of cholesteryl esters. Lipid profiles averaged for 30 symptomatic and 30 asymptomatic contact lens wearers were compiled. Peak classes were split into: cholesterol (C), cholesteryl esters (CE), glycerides (G), polar fatty acids/phospholipids (PL). The lipid ratio for ymptomatic/symptomatic was 0.6 ± 0.1 for all classes except one—the cholesterol ratio was 0.2 ± 0.05. Significantly the PL ratio was no different from that of any other class except cholesterol. Chromatography indicated that: lipid polarity decreased with depth of penetration and that lipid extractability decreased with wear time. Conclusions: Meibomian lipid composition differs from that in the tear film and on worn lenses. Although the same broad lipid classes were obtained by extraction from all lenses and all patients studied, quantities vary with wear and material. Lipid extractability diminishes with wear time regardless of the use of cleaning regimes. Dry eye symptoms in contact lens wear are frequently linked to lipid layer behaviour but seem to relate more to total lipid than to specific composition. Understanding the detail of lipid related processes is an important element of improving the clinical performance of materials and care solutions.

Burden or benefit? Regulation as a dynamic influence on small business performance

This article contributes to contemporary debates concerning the impact of regulation on small business performance. Reassessing previous studies, we build our insights on their useful, but partial, approaches. Prior studies treat regulation principally as a static and negative influence, thereby neglecting the full range of regulatory effects on business performance. This study adopts a more nuanced approach, one informed by critical realism, that conceptualises social reality as stratified, and social causality in terms of the actions of human agents situated within particular social-structural contexts. We theorise regulation as a dynamic force, enabling as well as constraining performance, generating contradictory performance effects. Such regulatory effects flow directly from adaptations to regulation, and indirectly via relationships with the wide range of close and distant stakeholders with whom small businesses interact. Future research should examine these contradictory regulatory influences on small business performance.

Dynamic supply chain alignment:a new business model for peak performance in enterprise supply chains across all geographies

Dynamic supply chain alignment: a new business model for peak performance in enterprise supply chains across all geographies John Gattorna and friends, Farnham, Gower Publishing, 2009, 440pp., £60, ISBN 978-0-566-08822-3.

Experimental comparison of dynamic tracking performance of iGPS and laser tracker

External metrology systems are increasingly being integrated with traditional industrial articulated robots, especially in the aerospace industries, to improve their absolute accuracy for precision operations such as drilling, machining and jigless assembly. While currently most of the metrology assisted robotics control systems are limited in their position update rate, such that the robot has to be stopped in order to receive a metrology coordinate update, some recent efforts are addressed toward controlling robots using real-time metrology data. The indoor GPS is one of the metrology systems that may be used to provide real-time 6DOF data to a robot controller. Even if there is a noteworthy literature dealing with the evaluation of iGPS performance, there is, however, a lack of literature on how well the iGPS performs under dynamic conditions. This paper presents an experimental evaluation of the dynamic measurement performance of the iGPS, tracking the trajectories of an industrial robot. The same experiment is also repeated using a laser tracker. Besides the experiment results presented, this paper also proposes a novel method for dynamic repeatability comparisons of tracking instruments. © 2011 Springer-Verlag London Limited.

A study on uncertain dynamic disaster management tasks, knowledge sharing, and task performance

Each disaster presents itself with a unique set of characteristics that are hard to determine a priori. Thus disaster management tasks are inherently uncertain, requiring knowledge sharing and quick decision making that involves coordination across different levels and collaborators. While there has been an increasing interest among both researchers and practitioners in utilizing knowledge management to improve disaster management, little research has been reported about how to assess the dynamic nature of disaster management tasks, and what kinds of knowledge sharing are appropriate for different dimensions of task uncertainty characteristics. ^ Using combinations of qualitative and quantitative methods, this research study developed the dimensions and their corresponding measures of the uncertain dynamic characteristics of disaster management tasks and tested the relationships between the various dimensions of uncertain dynamic disaster management tasks and task performance through the moderating and mediating effects of knowledge sharing. ^ Furthermore, this research work conceptualized and assessed task uncertainty along three dimensions: novelty, unanalyzability, and significance; knowledge sharing along two dimensions: knowledge sharing purposes and knowledge sharing mechanisms; and task performance along two dimensions: task effectiveness and task efficiency. Analysis results of survey data collected from Miami-Dade County emergency managers suggested that knowledge sharing purposes and knowledge sharing mechanisms moderate and mediate uncertain dynamic disaster management task and task performance. Implications for research and practice as well directions for future research are discussed.^

Dynamic image precompensation for improving visual performance of computer users with ocular aberrations

With the progress of computer technology, computers are expected to be more intelligent in the interaction with humans, presenting information according to the user's psychological and physiological characteristics. However, computer users with visual problems may encounter difficulties on the perception of icons, menus, and other graphical information displayed on the screen, limiting the efficiency of their interaction with computers. In this dissertation, a personalized and dynamic image precompensation method was developed to improve the visual performance of the computer users with ocular aberrations. The precompensation was applied on the graphical targets before presenting them on the screen, aiming to counteract the visual blurring caused by the ocular aberration of the user's eye. A complete and systematic modeling approach to describe the retinal image formation of the computer user was presented, taking advantage of modeling tools, such as Zernike polynomials, wavefront aberration, Point Spread Function and Modulation Transfer Function. The ocular aberration of the computer user was originally measured by a wavefront aberrometer, as a reference for the precompensation model. The dynamic precompensation was generated based on the resized aberration, with the real-time pupil diameter monitored. The potential visual benefit of the dynamic precompensation method was explored through software simulation, with the aberration data from a real human subject. An "artificial eye'' experiment was conducted by simulating the human eye with a high-definition camera, providing objective evaluation to the image quality after precompensation. In addition, an empirical evaluation with 20 human participants was also designed and implemented, involving image recognition tests performed under a more realistic viewing environment of computer use. The statistical analysis results of the empirical experiment confirmed the effectiveness of the dynamic precompensation method, by showing significant improvement on the recognition accuracy. The merit and necessity of the dynamic precompensation were also substantiated by comparing it with the static precompensation. The visual benefit of the dynamic precompensation was further confirmed by the subjective assessments collected from the evaluation participants.

Performance of a single liquid column damper for the control of dynamic responses of a tension leg platform

Tuned liquid column dampers have been proved to be successful in mitigating the dynamic responses of civil infrastructure. There have been some recent applications of this concept on wind turbines and this passive control system can help to mitigate responses of offshore floating platforms and wave devices. The control of dynamic responses of these devices is important for reducing loads on structural elements and facilitating operations and maintenance (O&M) activities. This paper outlines the use of a tuned single liquid column damper for the control of a tension leg platform supported wind turbine. Theoretical studies were carried out and a scaled model was tested in a wave basin to assess the performance of the damper. The tests on the model presented in this paper correspond to a platform with a very low natural frequency for surge, sway and yaw motions. For practical purposes, it was not possible to tune the liquid damper exactly to this frequency. The consequent approach taken and the efficiency of such approach are presented in this paper. Responses to waves of a single frequency are investigated along with responses obtained from wave spectra characterising typical sea states. The extent of control is quantified using peak and root mean squared dynamic responses respectively. The tests present some guidelines and challenges for testing scaled devices in relation to including response control mechanisms. Additionally, the results provide a basis for dictating future research on tuned liquid column damper based control on floating platforms.

Dynamic Image Precompensation for Improving Visual Performance of Computer Users with Ocular Aberrations

With the progress of computer technology, computers are expected to be more intelligent in the interaction with humans, presenting information according to the user's psychological and physiological characteristics. However, computer users with visual problems may encounter difficulties on the perception of icons, menus, and other graphical information displayed on the screen, limiting the efficiency of their interaction with computers. In this dissertation, a personalized and dynamic image precompensation method was developed to improve the visual performance of the computer users with ocular aberrations. The precompensation was applied on the graphical targets before presenting them on the screen, aiming to counteract the visual blurring caused by the ocular aberration of the user's eye. A complete and systematic modeling approach to describe the retinal image formation of the computer user was presented, taking advantage of modeling tools, such as Zernike polynomials, wavefront aberration, Point Spread Function and Modulation Transfer Function. The ocular aberration of the computer user was originally measured by a wavefront aberrometer, as a reference for the precompensation model. The dynamic precompensation was generated based on the resized aberration, with the real-time pupil diameter monitored. The potential visual benefit of the dynamic precompensation method was explored through software simulation, with the aberration data from a real human subject. An "artificial eye'' experiment was conducted by simulating the human eye with a high-definition camera, providing objective evaluation to the image quality after precompensation. In addition, an empirical evaluation with 20 human participants was also designed and implemented, involving image recognition tests performed under a more realistic viewing environment of computer use. The statistical analysis results of the empirical experiment confirmed the effectiveness of the dynamic precompensation method, by showing significant improvement on the recognition accuracy. The merit and necessity of the dynamic precompensation were also substantiated by comparing it with the static precompensation. The visual benefit of the dynamic precompensation was further confirmed by the subjective assessments collected from the evaluation participants.

Energy performance comparison of three innovative HVAC systems for renovation through dynamic simulation

In this paper, dynamic simulation was used to compare the energy performance of three innovativeHVAC systems: (A) mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and micro heat pump, (B) exhaustventilation with exhaust air-to-water heat pump and ventilation radiators, and (C) exhaust ventilationwith air-to-water heat pump and ventilation radiators, to a reference system: (D) exhaust ventilation withair-to-water heat pump and panel radiators. System A was modelled in MATLAB Simulink and systems Band C in TRNSYS 17. The reference system was modelled in both tools, for comparison between the two.All systems were tested with a model of a renovated single family house for varying U-values, climates,infiltration and ventilation rates.It was found that A was the best system for lower heating demand, while for higher heating demandsystem B would be preferable. System C was better than the reference system, but not as good as A or B.The difference in energy consumption of the reference system was less than 2 kWh/(m2a) betweenSimulink and TRNSYS. This could be explained by the different ways of handling solar gains, but also bythe fact that the TRNSYS systems supplied slightly more than the ideal heating demand.

Strategic Orientations, Dynamic Capabilities, and Firm Performance: an Analysis for Knowledge Intensive Business Services

The strategic orientations of a firm are considered crucial for enhancing firm performance and their impact can be even greater when associated with dynamic capabilities, particularly in complex and dynamic environments. This study empirically analyzes the relationship between market, entrepreneurial and learning orientations, dynamic capabilities, and performance using an integrative approach hitherto little explored. Using a sample of 209 knowledge intensive business service firms, this paper applies structural equation modeling to explore both direct effects of strategic orientations and the mediating role of dynamic capabilities on performance. The study demonstrates that learning orientation and one of the dimensions of entrepreneurial orientation have a direct positive effect on performance. On the other hand, dynamic capabilities mediate the relationships between some of the strategic orientations and firm performance. Overall, when dynamic capabilities are combined with the appropriate strategic orientations, they enhance firm performance. This paper contributes to a better understanding of the knowledge economy, given the important role knowledge intensive business services play in such a dynamic and pivotal sector.