Mapping power law distributions in digital health social networks: methods, interpretations, and practical implications

BACKGROUND: Social networks are common in digital health. A new stream of research is beginning to investigate the mechanisms of digital health social networks (DHSNs), how they are structured, how they function, and how their growth can be nurtured and managed. DHSNs increase in value when additional content is added, and the structure of networks may resemble the characteristics of power laws. Power laws are contrary to traditional Gaussian averages in that they demonstrate correlated phenomena. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to investigate whether the distribution frequency in four DHSNs can be characterized as following a power law. A second objective is to describe the method used to determine the comparison. METHODS: Data from four DHSNs—Alcohol Help Center (AHC), Depression Center (DC), Panic Center (PC), and Stop Smoking Center (SSC)—were compared to power law distributions. To assist future researchers and managers, the 5-step methodology used to analyze and compare datasets is described. RESULTS: All four DHSNs were found to have right-skewed distributions, indicating the data were not normally distributed. When power trend lines were added to each frequency distribution, R(2) values indicated that, to a very high degree, the variance in post frequencies can be explained by actor rank (AHC .962, DC .975, PC .969, SSC .95). Spearman correlations provided further indication of the strength and statistical significance of the relationship (AHC .987. DC .967, PC .983, SSC .993, P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to investigate power distributions across multiple DHSNs, each addressing a unique condition. Results indicate that despite vast differences in theme, content, and length of existence, DHSNs follow properties of power laws. The structure of DHSNs is important as it gives insight to researchers and managers into the nature and mechanisms of network functionality. The 5-step process undertaken to compare actor contribution patterns can be replicated in networks that are managed by other organizations, and we conjecture that patterns observed in this study could be found in other DHSNs. Future research should analyze network growth over time and examine the characteristics and survival rates of superusers.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Socio-economic variables influence the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake in Brazilian adolescents: results from a population-based survey

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake among adolescents and the association between socio-economic variables and nutritional status. Design: Cross-sectional study with a population-based sample. Settings: The usual nutrient intake distribution was estimated using the Iowa State University method. The Estimated Average Requirement cut-off point method was used to determine the proportion of adolescents with inadequate intake for each nutrient, according to sex, income, parental educational level and nutritional status. Subjects: Twenty-four-hour dietary recalls were applied in 525 male and female Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years. Results: The highest prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake was observed for vitamin E (99% in both sexes). For male and female adolescents, the prevalence of inadequate intake was: Mg, 89% and 84%; vitamin A, 78% and 71 %; vitamin C, 79% and 53%; and vitamin B(6), 21% and 33%, respectively. The prevalence of inadequate intake for niacin, thiamin, riboflavin, Se, Cu and vitamin B(12) was <15 %. Individuals in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata had the highest risk of having inadequate intake for P, riboflavin and vitamins A, B(6) and B(12). Compared with non-overweight individuals, overweight individuals had a higher risk of inadequate intake for Mg, vitamin A, P, thiamin and riboflavin. Conclusions: The present study found a high prevalence of inadequate intake of nutrients that are recognised as being protective against chronic diseases. Adolescents in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata were less likely to have their nutrient intake requirements met.

The impact of smoke from forest fires on the spectral dispersion of cloud droplet size distributions in the Amazonian region

In this paper, the main microphysical characteristics of clouds developing in polluted and clean conditions in the biomass-burning season of the Amazon region are examined, with special attention to the spectral dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution and its potential impact on climate modeling applications. The dispersion effect has been shown to alter the climate cooling predicted by the so-called Twomey effect. In biomass-burning polluted conditions, high concentrations of low dispersed cloud droplets are found. Clean conditions revealed an opposite situation. The liquid water content (0.43 +/- 0.19 g m(-3)) is shown to be uncorrelated with the cloud drop number concentration, while the effective radius is found to be very much correlated with the relative dispersion of the size distribution (R(2) = 0.81). The results suggest that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei concentration from biomass-burning aerosols may lead to an additional effect caused by a decrease in relative dispersion. Since the dry season in the Amazonian region is vapor limiting, the dispersion effect of cloud droplet size distributions could be substantially larger than in other polluted regions.

Caesium, potassium and ammonium distributions in different organs of tropical plants

In the present work the distribution of ions in aboveground plant parts was studied in order to establish the suitability of using radiocaesium as a tracer for the plant absorption of nutrients, such as potassium (K(+)) and ammonium (NH(4)(+)). We present the results for the distributions of (137)Cs, (40)K and NH(4)(+) from four tropical plant species: lemon (Citrus aurantifolia), orange (Citrus sinensis), guava (Psidium guajava) and chili pepper (Capsicum frutescens). Activity concentrations of (137)Cs and (40)K were measured by gamma spectrometry and concentrations of free NH(4)(+) ions by a colorimetric method. Similarly to potassium and ammonium, caesium showed a high mobility within the plants, exhibiting the highest values of concentration in the growing parts of the tree (fruits, new leaves, twigs, and barks). A significant correlation between activity concentrations of (137)Cs and (40)K was observed in these tropical plants. The K/Cs discrimination ratios were approximately equal to unity in different compartments of each individual plant, suggesting that caesium could be a good tracer for (40)K in tropical woody fruit species. Despite the similarity observed for the behaviour of caesium and ammonium in the newly grown plant compartments, (137)Cs was not well correlated with NH(4)(+). Significant temporal changes in the NH(4)(+) concentrations were observed during the development of fruits, while the (137)Cs activity concentration alterations were not of great importance, indicating, therefore, that Cs(+) and free NH(4)(+) ions could have distinct concentration ratios for each particular plant organ. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random sums of exchangeable variables and actuarial applications

In this paper we study the accumulated claim in some fixed time period, skipping the classical assumption of mutual independence between the variables involved. Two basic models are considered: Model I assumes that any pair of claims are equally correlated which means that the corresponding square-integrable sequence is exchangeable one. Model 2 states that the correlations between the adjacent claims are the same. Recurrence and explicit expressions for the joint probability generating function are derived and the impact of the dependence parameter (correlation coefficient) in both models is examined. The Markov binomial distribution is obtained as a particular case under assumptions of Model 2. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A multivariate ultrastructural errors-in-variables model with equation error

This paper deals with asymptotic results on a multivariate ultrastructural errors-in-variables regression model with equation errors Sufficient conditions for attaining consistent estimators for model parameters are presented Asymptotic distributions for the line regression estimators are derived Applications to the elliptical class of distributions with two error assumptions are presented The model generalizes previous results aimed at univariate scenarios (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved

A reparametrization of Triangular Distribution based on the Skew-Symmetric Distributions

In this paper a new approach is considered for studying the triangular distribution using the theoretical development behind Skew distributions. Triangular distribution are obtained by a reparametrization of usual triangular distribution. Main probabilistic properties of the distribution are studied, including moments, asymmetry and kurtosis coefficients, and an stochastic representation, which provides a simple and efficient method for generating random variables. Moments estimation is also implemented. Finally, a simulation study is conducted to illustrate the behavior of the estimation approach proposed.

Spatial variations at different observational scales and the seasonal distributions of stream macroalgae in a Brazilian subtropical region

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION of OCULOMETRIC VARIABLES IN GRAVES' OPHTHALMOPATHY

OBJECTIVES: To estimate oculometric parameters of Graves' ophthalmopathy in comparison to healthy eyes using digital photography and digital image analysis.INTRODUCTION: Graves' ophthalmopathy is the main cause of eye proptosis. Because these protrusions cause clinically perceived distortions in orbital architecture, digital photographs can be used to detect and quantify these changes.METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional study comprising 12 healthy volunteers and 15 Graves' ophthalmopathy patients with the purpose of evaluating the use of simple, non-invasive digital photography to estimate oculometric parameters of Graves' ophthalmopathy and compare them with the parameters of unaffected eyes. Facial photographs of cases and controls were taken in a standardized manner. Oculometric parameters were compared between the groups and then correlated to proptometer measures.RESULTS: All estimated oculometric variables showed significant differences between the groups, in particular with regard to mediopupilar aperture, lateral height, distance from the iris edge to the lateral boundary of the palpebral fissure, and distance from the higher point of the iris to the lateral limit of the palpebral fissure. The product of medial aperture and horizontal palpebral fissure also revealed greater discrepancy between the groups. Proptometer measures showed significant linear correlation between the distance from the iris edge to the lateral boundary of the palpebral fissure and between the distance from the higher point of the iris to the lateral limit of palpebral fissure (p<0.05).CONCLUSIONS: Comparative analysis of oculometric parameters in Graves' ophthalmopathy suggests that eye proptosis is related to an asymmetric increase in lateral oculometric measures. Standardized digital photographs can be used in clinical practice to objectively estimate oculometric parameters of Graves' ophthalmopathy patients.

MUSCLE MASS GAIN AFTER RESISTANCE TRAINING IS INVERSELY CORRELATED WITH TRUNK ADIPOSITY GAIN IN POSTMENOPAUSAL WOMEN

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Classic and molecular cytogenetic analyses reveal chromosomal gains and losses correlated with survival in head and neck cancer patients

Purpose: Genetic biomarkers of head and neck tumors could be useful for distinguishing among patients with similar clinical and histopathologic characteristics but having differential probabilities of survival. The purpose of this study was to investigate chromosomal alterations in head and neck carcinomas and to correlate the results with clinical and epidentiologic variables.Experimental Design: Cytogenetic analysis of short-term cultures from 64 primary untreated head and neck squamous cell carcinomas was used to determine the overall pattern of chromosome aberrations. A representative subset of tumors was analyzed in detail by spectral karyotyping and/or confirmatory fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis.Results: Recurrent losses of chromosomes Y (26 cases) and 19 (14 cases), and gains of chromosomes 22 (23 cases), 8 and 20 (11 cases each) were observed. The most frequent structural aberration was del(22)(q13.1) followed by rearrangements involving 6q and 12p. The presence of specific cytogenetic aberrations was found to correlate significantly with an unfavorable outcome. There was a significant association between survival and gains in chromosomes 10 (P = 0.008) and 20 (P = 0.002) and losses of chromosomes 15 (P = 0.005) and 22 (P = 0.021). Univariate analysis indicated that acquisition of monosomy 17 was a significant (P = 0.0012) factor for patients with a previous family history of cancer.Conclusions: the significant associations found in this study emphasize that alterations of distinct regions of the genome may be genetic biomarkers for a poor prognosis. Losses of chromosomes 17 and 22 can be associated with a family history of cancer.

The Association between Skipping Breakfast and Biochemical Variables in Sedentary Obese Children and Adolescents

Objective To investigate the relationship between skipping meals and biochemical variables in obese children and adolescents.Study design The sample was composed of 174 obese children and adolescents, aged between 6 and 16 years (80 male and 94 female). Body composition was assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, fasting blood glucose, and lipid profile were measured after 12 hours fasting. The frequency of skipping breakfast, lunch, or dinner was assessed through a face-to-face interview carried out with the parents.Results The prevalence of eating breakfast daily was low in boys (47.5%) and girls (44.7%). A higher frequency of eating breakfast was negatively correlated with glucose (r = -0.16; P = .026), triglycerides (r = -0.19; P = .011), and very low density lipoprotein cholesterol (r = -0.21; P = .005). In the multivariate model, the weekly frequency of eating breakfast remained negatively associated with glucose (beta = -0.975; P = .017), triglycerides (beta = -7.792; P = .017), and very low density lipoprotein cholesterol (beta = -1.870; P = .009) independent of age, sex, trunk fatness, and parents' education.Conclusion Skipping meals, mainly breakfast, is associated with glucose and lipid levels in obese children and adolescents. (J Pediatr 2012;161:871-4).

Effects of nanoscale spatial inhomogeneity in strongly correlated systems

We calculate ground-state energies and density distributions of Hubbard superlattices characterized by periodic modulations of the on-site interaction and the on-site potential. Both density-matrix renormalization group and density-functional methods are employed and compared. We find that small variations in the on-site potential v(i) can simulate, cancel, or even overcompensate effects due to much larger variations in the on-site interaction U-i. Our findings highlight the importance of nanoscale spatial inhomogeneity in strongly correlated systems, and call for a reexamination of model calculations assuming spatial homogeneity.

Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach

In the context of Bayesian statistical analysis, elicitation is the process of formulating a prior density f(.) about one or more uncertain quantities to represent a person's knowledge and beliefs. Several different methods of eliciting prior distributions for one unknown parameter have been proposed. However, there are relatively few methods for specifying a multivariate prior distribution and most are just applicable to specific classes of problems and/or based on restrictive conditions, such as independence of variables. Besides, many of these procedures require the elicitation of variances and correlations, and sometimes elicitation of hyperparameters which are difficult for experts to specify in practice. Garthwaite et al. (2005) discuss the different methods proposed in the literature and the difficulties of eliciting multivariate prior distributions. We describe a flexible method of eliciting multivariate prior distributions applicable to a wide class of practical problems. Our approach does not assume a parametric form for the unknown prior density f(.), instead we use nonparametric Bayesian inference, modelling f(.) by a Gaussian process prior distribution. The expert is then asked to specify certain summaries of his/her distribution, such as the mean, mode, marginal quantiles and a small number of joint probabilities. The analyst receives that information, treating it as a data set D with which to update his/her prior beliefs to obtain the posterior distribution for f(.). Theoretical properties of joint and marginal priors are derived and numerical illustrations to demonstrate our approach are given. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.