Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities

This paper takes the shelf and digs into the complex population’s age structure of Catalan municipalities for the year 2009. Catalonia is a very heterogeneous territory, and age pyramids vary considerably across different areas of the territory, existing geographical factors shaping municipalities’ age distributions. By means of spatial statistics methodologies, this piece of research tries to assess which spatial factors determine the location, scale and shape of local distributions. The results show that there exist different distributional patterns across the geography according to specific local determinants. Keywords: Spatial Models. JEL Classification: C21.

Nutrient distribution in Picea likiangensis trees growing in a plantation in West Sichuan, Southwest China

Abstract

Introduction of snow and geomorphic disturbance variables into predictive models of alpine plant distribution in the Western Swiss Alps

Indirect topographic variables have been used successfully as surrogates for disturbance processes in plant species distribution models (SDM) in mountain environments. However, no SDM studies have directly tested the performance of disturbance variables. In this study, we developed two disturbance variables: a geomorphic index (GEO) and an index of snow redistribution by wind (SNOW). These were developed in order to assess how they improved both the fit and predictive power of presenceabsence SDM based on commonly used topoclimatic (TC) variables for 91 plants in the Western Swiss Alps. The individual contribution of the disturbance variables was compared to TC variables. Maps of models were prepared to spatially test the effect of disturbance variables. On average, disturbance variables significantly improved the fit but not the predictive power of the TC models and their individual contribution was weak (5.6% for GEO and 3.3% for SNOW). However their maximum individual contribution was important (24.7% and 20.7%). Finally, maps including disturbance variables (i) were significantly divergent from TC models in terms of predicted suitable surfaces and connectivity between potential habitats, and (ii) were interpreted as more ecologically relevant. Disturbance variables did not improve the transferability of models at the local scale in a complex mountain system, and the performance and contribution of these variables were highly species-specific. However, improved spatial projections and change in connectivity are important issues when preparing projections under climate change because the future range size of the species will determine the sensitivity to changing conditions.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

The normal distribution in some constrained sample spaces

Phenomena with a constrained sample space appear frequently in practice. This is the case e.g. with strictly positive data, or with compositional data, like percentages or proportions. If the natural measure of difference is not the absolute one, simple algebraic properties show that it is more convenient to work with a geometry different from the usual Euclidean geometry in real space, and with a measure different from the usual Lebesgue measure, leading to alternative models which better fit the phenomenon under study. The general approach is presented and illustrated using the normal distribution, both on the positive real line and on the D-part simplex. The original ideas of McAlister in his introduction to the lognormal distribution in 1879, are recovered and updated

A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

We analysed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and the Eurasian otter occurrence over the course of about 20 years (1985-2006) using multi-temporal Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most of the otter's Italian range. Land cover and topographic data were used as proxies of the ecological requirements of the otter within a 300-m buffer around river courses. We used species presence, pseudo-absence data, and environmental predictors to build past (1985) and current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through the BIOMOD modelling package. The performance of each model was evaluated by measuring the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analyses of species distribution and land cover maps were performed by comparing the maps produced for 1985 and 2006. The ensemble procedure provided a good overall modelling accuracy, revealing that elevation and slope affected the otter's distribution in the past; in contrast, land cover predictors, such as cultivations and forests, were more important in the present period. During the transition period, 20.5% of the area became suitable, with 76% of the new otter presence data being located in these newly available areas. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that the quality of otter habitat improved in the last 20 years owing to the expansion of forests and to the reduction of cultivated fields in riparian belts. The evidence presented here stresses the great potential of riverine habitat restoration and environmental management for the future expansion of the otter in Italy

Joergensenium rotatile n. gen., n. sp (Entactinaria, Radiolaria): its distribution in west Norwegian fjords

A new radiolarian genus and species, Joergensenium rotatile, is described. This species is restricted to recent sediments and plankton samples from the North Atlantic. Its recent distribution in the Norwegian Sea and West Norwegian fjords shows a strong affinity to the neritic province and reaches almost 2% in Hryangerfjord. This species is only known from late Glacial and Holocene sediments in the Nordic seas. This genus shows, however, a patchy stratigraphic distribution with its first occurrence in the south-west Pacific within Palcocene, in the Middle to Late Miocene from the Norwegian Sea, and in the Labrador Sea at the base of biozone NN 21. Two fjords are compared for the general radiolarian distribution, but with special emphasis on the occurrence of J. rotatile in both sediment and plankton.

Comparison of plantar pressure distribution in adolescent runners at low vs. high running velocity

This study aimed to compare foot plantar pressure distribution while jogging and running in highly trained adolescent runners. Eleven participants performed two constant-velocity running trials either at jogging (11.2 ± 0.9 km/h) or running (17.8 ± 1.4 km/h) pace on a treadmill. Contact area (CA in cm(2)), maximum force (F(max) in N), peak pressure (PP in kPa), contact time (CT in ms), and relative load (force time integral in each individual region divided by the force time integral for the total plantar foot surface, in %) were measured in nine regions of the right foot using an in-shoe plantar pressure device. Under the whole foot, CA, F(max) and PP were lower in jogging than in running (-1.2% [p<0.05], -12.3% [p<0.001] and -15.1% [p<0.01] respectively) whereas CT was higher (+20.1%; p<0.001). Interestingly, we found an increase in relative load under the medial and central forefoot regions while jogging (+6.7% and +3.7%, respectively; [p<0.05]), while the relative load under the lesser toes (-8.4%; p<0.05) was reduced. In order to prevent overloading of the metatarsals in adolescent runners, excessive mileage at jogging pace should be avoided.

Regulation of Electricity Transmission and Distribution in Russia

The regulation of electricity transmission and distribution business is an essential issue for any electricity market; it is widely introduced in developed electricity markets of Great Britain, Scandinavian countries and United States of America and other. Those markets which were liberalized recently also need well planned regulation model to be chosen and implemented. In open electricity markets the sectors of electricity distribution and transmission remain monopolies, so called "natural monopolies", as introducing the competition into these sectors in most cases appears to be inefficient. Thatis why regulation becomes very important as its main tasks are: to set reasonable tariffs for customers, to ensure non-discriminating process of electricity transmission and distribution, at the same time to provide distribution companies with incentives to operate efficiently and the owners of the companies with reasonable profits as well; the problem of power quality should be solved at the same time. It should be mentioned also, that there is no incentive scheme which will be suitable for any conditions, that is why it is essential to study differentregulation models in order to form the best one for concrete situation. The aim of this Master's Thesis is to give an overview over theregulation of electricity transmission and distribution in Russia. First, the general information about theory of regulation of natural monopolies will be described; the situation in Russian network business and the importance of regulation process for it will be discussed next. Then there is a detailed description ofexisting regulatory system and the process of tariff calculation with an example. And finally, in the work there is a brief analysis of problems of present scheme of regulation, an attempt to predict the following development of regulationin Russia and the perspectives and risks connected to regulation which could face the companies that try to enter Russian electricity market (such as FORTUM OY).

Comparison between land suitability and actual crop distribution in an irrigation district of the Ebro valley (Spain)

El objetivo de la presente investigación fue analizar la correspondencia entre los resultados de una evaluación de tierras con la distribución real de los cultivos. Para ello la aptitud biofísica de las tierras se comparó con diferentes tipologías de frecuencia de ocurrencia de los cultivos y rotaciones derivadas de mapas de cultivos multitemporales. La investigación fue llevada a cabo en el distrito de riego de Flumen (33.000 ha), localizado en el valle del Ebro (NE España). La evaluación de tierras se basó en una cartografía de suelos 1:100.000, según el esquema FAO, para los principales cultivos presentes en el área de estudio (alfalfa, cereales de invierno, maíz, arroz y girasol). Se utilizaron tres mapas de frecuencia de cultivos y un mapa de rotaciones, derivado de una serie temporal de imágenes Landsat TM y ETM+ del periodo 1993-2000, y se compararon con los mapas de aptitud de tierras para los diferentes cultivos. Se analizó estadísticamente (Pearson χ2, Cramer V, Gamma y Somers D) la relación entre los dos tipos de variables. Los resultados muestran la existencia de una relación significativa (P=0,001) entre la localización de los cultivos y la idoneidad de las tierras, excepto de cultivos oportunistas como el girasol, muy influenciado por las subvenciones en el periodo estudiado. Las rotaciones basadas en la alfalfa muestran los mayores porcentajes (52%) de ocupación en las tierras más aptas para la agricultura en el área de estudio. El presente enfoque multitemporal de análisis de la información ofrece una visión más real que la comparación entre un mapa de evaluación de tierras y un mapa de cultivos de una fecha determinada, cuando se valora el grado de acuerdo entre las recomendaciones sobre la aptitud de las tierras y los cultivos realmente cultivados por los agricultores.

Water consumption and soil moisture distribution in melon crop with mulching and in a protected environment

Mulching has become an important technique for land cover, but there are some technical procedures which should be adjusted for these new modified conditions to establish optimum total water depth. It is also important to observe the soil-water relations as soil water distribution and wetted volume dimensions. The objective of the present study was to estimate melon evapotranspiration under mulching in a protected environment and to verify the water spatial distribution around the melon root system in two soil classes. Mulching provided 27 mm water saving by reducing water evaporation. In terms of volume each plant received, on average, the amount of 175.2 L of water in 84 days of cultivation without mulching, while when was used mulching the water requirement was 160.2 L per plant. The use of mulching reduced the soil moisture variability throughout the crop cycle and allowed a greater distribution of soil water that was more intense in the clay soil. The clayey soil provided on average 43 mm more water depth retention in 0.50 m soil deep relative to the sandy loam soil, and reduced 5.6 mm the crop cycle soil moisture variation compared to sandy loam soil.

The proportional distribution in a cooperative model with external opportunities

[cat] En aquest article es considera un problema de cooperació entre agents on cada agent realitza una contribució (diners, capital, treball, esforç) per tal d'obtenir un benefici comú a repartir. El repartiment proporcional respecte a les contribucions és una distribució que pertany al nucli del joc cooperatiu associat. A partir d'aquest model bàsic s'introdueix un agent extern que pot realitzar una determinada aportació que serveix per avaluar el potencial benefici de cada subcoalició d'agents si aquest nou agent finalment entrés. Aquesta anàlisi pot produir que el poder relatiu dels agents hagi variat. en concret s'avalua si la distribució proporcional és encara robusta des del punt de vista de la seva pertinença al conjunt de negociació. Amb aquest objectiu, analitzem el problema utilitzant el model de joc cooperatius amb estructura de coalició. Donat que, en general, la distribució proporcional, no pertany al conjunt de negociació, s'estudia una condició suficient per a que així sigui. També enunciem una condició necessària, i finalment es proposa una condició suficient que garanteix que el repartiment proporcional és la única distribució existent dins del conjunt de negociació.

The proportional distribution in a cooperative model with external opportunities

[cat] En aquest article es considera un problema de cooperació entre agents on cada agent realitza una contribució (diners, capital, treball, esforç) per tal d'obtenir un benefici comú a repartir. El repartiment proporcional respecte a les contribucions és una distribució que pertany al nucli del joc cooperatiu associat. A partir d'aquest model bàsic s'introdueix un agent extern que pot realitzar una determinada aportació que serveix per avaluar el potencial benefici de cada subcoalició d'agents si aquest nou agent finalment entrés. Aquesta anàlisi pot produir que el poder relatiu dels agents hagi variat. en concret s'avalua si la distribució proporcional és encara robusta des del punt de vista de la seva pertinença al conjunt de negociació. Amb aquest objectiu, analitzem el problema utilitzant el model de joc cooperatius amb estructura de coalició. Donat que, en general, la distribució proporcional, no pertany al conjunt de negociació, s'estudia una condició suficient per a que així sigui. També enunciem una condició necessària, i finalment es proposa una condició suficient que garanteix que el repartiment proporcional és la única distribució existent dins del conjunt de negociació.

Assessing the use of very high resolution data to predict species distribution in a mountain environment

Nowadays, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are a widely used tool. Using different statistical approaches these models reconstruct the realized niche of a species using presence data and a set of variables, often topoclimatic. There utilization range is quite large from understanding single species requirements, to the creation of nature reserve based on species hotspots, or modeling of climate change impact, etc... Most of the time these models are using variables at a resolution of 50km x 50km or 1 km x 1 km. However in some cases these models are used with resolutions below the kilometer scale and thus called high resolution models (100 m x 100 m or 25 m x 25 m). Quite recently a new kind of data has emerged enabling precision up to lm x lm and thus allowing very high resolution modeling. However these new variables are very costly and need an important amount of time to be processed. This is especially the case when these variables are used in complex calculation like models projections over large areas. Moreover the importance of very high resolution data in SDMs has not been assessed yet and is not well understood. Some basic knowledge on what drive species presence-absences is still missing. Indeed, it is not clear whether in mountain areas like the Alps coarse topoclimatic gradients are driving species distributions or if fine scale temperature or topography are more important or if their importance can be neglected when balance to competition or stochasticity. In this thesis I investigated the importance of very high resolution data (2-5m) in species distribution models using either very high resolution topographic, climatic or edaphic variables over a 2000m elevation gradient in the Western Swiss Alps. I also investigated more local responses of these variables for a subset of species living in this area at two precise elvation belts. During this thesis I showed that high resolution data necessitates very good datasets (species and variables for the models) to produce satisfactory results. Indeed, in mountain areas, temperature is the most important factor driving species distribution and needs to be modeled at very fine resolution instead of being interpolated over large surface to produce satisfactory results. Despite the instinctive idea that topographic should be very important at high resolution, results are mitigated. However looking at the importance of variables over a large gradient buffers the importance of the variables. Indeed topographic factors have been shown to be highly important at the subalpine level but their importance decrease at lower elevations. Wether at the mountane level edaphic and land use factors are more important high resolution topographic data is more imporatant at the subalpine level. Finally the biggest improvement in the models happens when edaphic variables are added. Indeed, adding soil variables is of high importance and variables like pH are overpassing the usual topographic variables in SDMs in term of importance in the models. To conclude high resolution is very important in modeling but necessitate very good datasets. Only increasing the resolution of the usual topoclimatic predictors is not sufficient and the use of edaphic predictors has been highlighted as fundamental to produce significantly better models. This is of primary importance, especially if these models are used to reconstruct communities or as basis for biodiversity assessments. -- Ces dernières années, l'utilisation des modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) a continuellement augmenté. Ces modèles utilisent différents outils statistiques afin de reconstruire la niche réalisée d'une espèce à l'aide de variables, notamment climatiques ou topographiques, et de données de présence récoltées sur le terrain. Leur utilisation couvre de nombreux domaines allant de l'étude de l'écologie d'une espèce à la reconstruction de communautés ou à l'impact du réchauffement climatique. La plupart du temps, ces modèles utilisent des occur-rences issues des bases de données mondiales à une résolution plutôt large (1 km ou même 50 km). Certaines bases de données permettent cependant de travailler à haute résolution, par conséquent de descendre en dessous de l'échelle du kilomètre et de travailler avec des résolutions de 100 m x 100 m ou de 25 m x 25 m. Récemment, une nouvelle génération de données à très haute résolution est apparue et permet de travailler à l'échelle du mètre. Les variables qui peuvent être générées sur la base de ces nouvelles données sont cependant très coûteuses et nécessitent un temps conséquent quant à leur traitement. En effet, tout calcul statistique complexe, comme des projections de distribution d'espèces sur de larges surfaces, demande des calculateurs puissants et beaucoup de temps. De plus, les facteurs régissant la distribution des espèces à fine échelle sont encore mal connus et l'importance de variables à haute résolution comme la microtopographie ou la température dans les modèles n'est pas certaine. D'autres facteurs comme la compétition ou la stochasticité naturelle pourraient avoir une influence toute aussi forte. C'est dans ce contexte que se situe mon travail de thèse. J'ai cherché à comprendre l'importance de la haute résolution dans les modèles de distribution d'espèces, que ce soit pour la température, la microtopographie ou les variables édaphiques le long d'un important gradient d'altitude dans les Préalpes vaudoises. J'ai également cherché à comprendre l'impact local de certaines variables potentiellement négligées en raison d'effets confondants le long du gradient altitudinal. Durant cette thèse, j'ai pu monter que les variables à haute résolution, qu'elles soient liées à la température ou à la microtopographie, ne permettent qu'une amélioration substantielle des modèles. Afin de distinguer une amélioration conséquente, il est nécessaire de travailler avec des jeux de données plus importants, tant au niveau des espèces que des variables utilisées. Par exemple, les couches climatiques habituellement interpolées doivent être remplacées par des couches de température modélisées à haute résolution sur la base de données de terrain. Le fait de travailler le long d'un gradient de température de 2000m rend naturellement la température très importante au niveau des modèles. L'importance de la microtopographie est négligeable par rapport à la topographie à une résolution de 25m. Cependant, lorsque l'on regarde à une échelle plus locale, la haute résolution est une variable extrêmement importante dans le milieu subalpin. À l'étage montagnard par contre, les variables liées aux sols et à l'utilisation du sol sont très importantes. Finalement, les modèles de distribution d'espèces ont été particulièrement améliorés par l'addition de variables édaphiques, principalement le pH, dont l'importance supplante ou égale les variables topographique lors de leur ajout aux modèles de distribution d'espèces habituels.