Optimisation des horaires des agents et du routage des appels dans les centres d’appels

Nous étudions la gestion de centres d'appels multi-compétences, ayant plusieurs types d'appels et groupes d'agents. Un centre d'appels est un système de files d'attente très complexe, où il faut généralement utiliser un simulateur pour évaluer ses performances. Tout d'abord, nous développons un simulateur de centres d'appels basé sur la simulation d'une chaîne de Markov en temps continu (CMTC), qui est plus rapide que la simulation conventionnelle par événements discrets. À l'aide d'une méthode d'uniformisation de la CMTC, le simulateur simule la chaîne de Markov en temps discret imbriquée de la CMTC. Nous proposons des stratégies pour utiliser efficacement ce simulateur dans l'optimisation de l'affectation des agents. En particulier, nous étudions l'utilisation des variables aléatoires communes. Deuxièmement, nous optimisons les horaires des agents sur plusieurs périodes en proposant un algorithme basé sur des coupes de sous-gradients et la simulation. Ce problème est généralement trop grand pour être optimisé par la programmation en nombres entiers. Alors, nous relaxons l'intégralité des variables et nous proposons des méthodes pour arrondir les solutions. Nous présentons une recherche locale pour améliorer la solution finale. Ensuite, nous étudions l'optimisation du routage des appels aux agents. Nous proposons une nouvelle politique de routage basé sur des poids, les temps d'attente des appels, et les temps d'inoccupation des agents ou le nombre d'agents libres. Nous développons un algorithme génétique modifié pour optimiser les paramètres de routage. Au lieu d'effectuer des mutations ou des croisements, cet algorithme optimise les paramètres des lois de probabilité qui génèrent la population de solutions. Par la suite, nous développons un algorithme d'affectation des agents basé sur l'agrégation, la théorie des files d'attente et la probabilité de délai. Cet algorithme heuristique est rapide, car il n'emploie pas la simulation. La contrainte sur le niveau de service est convertie en une contrainte sur la probabilité de délai. Par après, nous proposons une variante d'un modèle de CMTC basé sur le temps d'attente du client à la tête de la file. Et finalement, nous présentons une extension d'un algorithme de coupe pour l'optimisation stochastique avec recours de l'affectation des agents dans un centre d'appels multi-compétences.

Un criblage ciblant de nouveaux facteurs impliqués dans l’assemblage mitotique des chromosomes dans le nématode C. elegans

La division cellulaire est un processus fondamental des êtres vivants. À chaque division cellulaire, le matériel génétique d'une cellule mère est dupliqué et ségrégé pour produire deux cellules filles identiques; un processus nommé la mitose. Tout d'abord, la cellule doit condenser le matériel génétique pour être en mesure de séparer mécaniquement et également le matériel génétique. Une erreur dans le niveau de compaction ou dans la dynamique de la mitose occasionne une transmission inégale du matériel génétique. Il est suggéré dans la littérature que ces phénomènes pourraient causé la transformation des cellules cancéreuses. Par contre, le mécanisme moléculaire générant la coordination des changements de haut niveau de la condensation des chromosomes est encore incompris. Dans les dernières décennies, plusieurs approches expérimentales ont identifié quelques protéines conservées dans ce processus. Pour déterminer le rôle de ces facteurs dans la compaction des chromosomes, j'ai effectué un criblage par ARNi couplé à de l'imagerie à haute-résolution en temps réel chez l'embryon de C. elegans. Grâce à cette technique, j'ai découvert sept nouvelles protéines requises pour l'assemblage des chromosomes mitotiques, incluant la Ribonucléotide réductase (RNR) et Topoisomérase II (topo-II). Dans cette thèse, je décrirai le rôle structural de topo-II dans l'assemblage des chromosomes mitotiques et ces mécanismes moléculaires. Lors de la condensation des chromosomes, topo-II agit indépendamment comme un facteur d'assemblage local menant par la suite à la formation d'un axe de condensation tout au long du chromosome. Cette localisation est à l'opposé de la position des autres facteurs connus qui sont impliqués dans la condensation des chromosomes. Ceci représente un nouveau mécanisme pour l'assemblage des chromosomes chez C. elegans. De plus, j'ai découvert un rôle non-enzymatique à la protéine RNR lors de l'assemblage des chromosomes. Lors de ce processus, RNR est impliqué dans la stabilité des nucléosomes et alors, permet la compaction de haut niveau de la chromatine. Dans cette thèse, je rapporte également des résultats préliminaires concernant d'autres nouveaux facteurs découverts lors du criblage ARNi. Le plus important est que mon analyse révèle que la déplétion des nouvelles protéines montre des phénotypes distincts, indiquant la fonction de celles-ci lors de l'assemblage des chromosomes. Somme toute, je conclus que les chromosomes en métaphase sont assemblés par trois protéines ayant des activités différentes d'échafaudage: topoisomérase II, les complexes condensines et les protéines centromériques. En conclusion, ces études prouvent le mécanisme moléculaire de certaines protéines qui contribuent à la formation des chromosomes mitotiques.

Modeling and Analysis of Two-Part Type Manufacturing Systems

This paper presents a model and analysis of a synchronous tandem flow line that produces different part types on unreliable machines. The machines operate according to a static priority rule, operating on the highest priority part whenever possible, and operating on lower priority parts only when unable to produce those with higher priorities. We develop a new decomposition method to analyze the behavior of the manufacturing system by decomposing the long production line into small analytically tractable components. As a first step in modeling a production line with more than one part type, we restrict ourselves to the case where there are two part types. Detailed modeling and derivations are presented with a small two-part-type production line that consists of two processing machines and two demand machines. Then, a generalized longer flow line is analyzed. Furthermore, estimates for performance measures, such as average buffer levels and production rates, are presented and compared to extensive discrete event simulation. The quantitative behavior of the two-part type processing line under different demand scenarios is also provided.

Modelling, control and supervision for a class of hybrid systems

The aim of this thesis is to narrow the gap between two different control techniques: the continuous control and the discrete event control techniques DES. This gap can be reduced by the study of Hybrid systems, and by interpreting as Hybrid systems the majority of large-scale systems. In particular, when looking deeply into a process, it is often possible to identify interaction between discrete and continuous signals. Hybrid systems are systems that have both continuous, and discrete signals. Continuous signals are generally supposed continuous and differentiable in time, since discrete signals are neither continuous nor differentiable in time due to their abrupt changes in time. Continuous signals often represent the measure of natural physical magnitudes such as temperature, pressure etc. The discrete signals are normally artificial signals, operated by human artefacts as current, voltage, light etc. Typical processes modelled as Hybrid systems are production systems, chemical process, or continuos production when time and continuous measures interacts with the transport, and stock inventory system. Complex systems as manufacturing lines are hybrid in a global sense. They can be decomposed into several subsystems, and their links. Another motivation for the study of Hybrid systems is the tools developed by other research domains. These tools benefit from the use of temporal logic for the analysis of several properties of Hybrid systems model, and use it to design systems and controllers, which satisfies physical or imposed restrictions. This thesis is focused in particular types of systems with discrete and continuous signals in interaction. That can be modelled hard non-linealities, such as hysteresis, jumps in the state, limit cycles, etc. and their possible non-deterministic future behaviour expressed by an interpretable model description. The Hybrid systems treated in this work are systems with several discrete states, always less than thirty states (it can arrive to NP hard problem), and continuous dynamics evolving with expression: with Ki ¡ Rn constant vectors or matrices for X components vector. In several states the continuous evolution can be several of them Ki = 0. In this formulation, the mathematics can express Time invariant linear system. By the use of this expression for a local part, the combination of several local linear models is possible to represent non-linear systems. And with the interaction with discrete events of the system the model can compose non-linear Hybrid systems. Especially multistage processes with high continuous dynamics are well represented by the proposed methodology. Sate vectors with more than two components, as third order models or higher is well approximated by the proposed approximation. Flexible belt transmission, chemical reactions with initial start-up and mobile robots with important friction are several physical systems, which profits from the benefits of proposed methodology (accuracy). The motivation of this thesis is to obtain a solution that can control and drive the Hybrid systems from the origin or starting point to the goal. How to obtain this solution, and which is the best solution in terms of one cost function subject to the physical restrictions and control actions is analysed. Hybrid systems that have several possible states, different ways to drive the system to the goal and different continuous control signals are problems that motivate this research. The requirements of the system on which we work is: a model that can represent the behaviour of the non-linear systems, and that possibilities the prediction of possible future behaviour for the model, in order to apply an supervisor which decides the optimal and secure action to drive the system toward the goal. Specific problems can be determined by the use of this kind of hybrid models are: - The unity of order. - Control the system along a reachable path. - Control the system in a safe path. - Optimise the cost function. - Modularity of control The proposed model solves the specified problems in the switching models problem, the initial condition calculus and the unity of the order models. Continuous and discrete phenomena are represented in Linear hybrid models, defined with defined eighth-tuple parameters to model different types of hybrid phenomena. Applying a transformation over the state vector : for LTI system we obtain from a two-dimensional SS a single parameter, alpha, which still maintains the dynamical information. Combining this parameter with the system output, a complete description of the system is obtained in a form of a graph in polar representation. Using Tagaki-Sugeno type III is a fuzzy model which include linear time invariant LTI models for each local model, the fuzzyfication of different LTI local model gives as a result a non-linear time invariant model. In our case the output and the alpha measure govern the membership function. Hybrid systems control is a huge task, the processes need to be guided from the Starting point to the desired End point, passing a through of different specific states and points in the trajectory. The system can be structured in different levels of abstraction and the control in three layers for the Hybrid systems from planning the process to produce the actions, these are the planning, the process and control layer. In this case the algorithms will be applied to robotics ¡V a domain where improvements are well accepted ¡V it is expected to find a simple repetitive processes for which the extra effort in complexity can be compensated by some cost reductions. It may be also interesting to implement some control optimisation to processes such as fuel injection, DC-DC converters etc. In order to apply the RW theory of discrete event systems on a Hybrid system, we must abstract the continuous signals and to project the events generated for these signals, to obtain new sets of observable and controllable events. Ramadge & Wonham¡¦s theory along with the TCT software give a Controllable Sublanguage of the legal language generated for a Discrete Event System (DES). Continuous abstraction transforms predicates over continuous variables into controllable or uncontrollable events, and modifies the set of uncontrollable, controllable observable and unobservable events. Continuous signals produce into the system virtual events, when this crosses the bound limits. If this event is deterministic, they can be projected. It is necessary to determine the controllability of this event, in order to assign this to the corresponding set, , controllable, uncontrollable, observable and unobservable set of events. Find optimal trajectories in order to minimise some cost function is the goal of the modelling procedure. Mathematical model for the system allows the user to apply mathematical techniques over this expression. These possibilities are, to minimise a specific cost function, to obtain optimal controllers and to approximate a specific trajectory. The combination of the Dynamic Programming with Bellman Principle of optimality, give us the procedure to solve the minimum time trajectory for Hybrid systems. The problem is greater when there exists interaction between adjacent states. In Hybrid systems the problem is to determine the partial set points to be applied at the local models. Optimal controller can be implemented in each local model in order to assure the minimisation of the local costs. The solution of this problem needs to give us the trajectory to follow the system. Trajectory marked by a set of set points to force the system to passing over them. Several ways are possible to drive the system from the Starting point Xi to the End point Xf. Different ways are interesting in: dynamic sense, minimum states, approximation at set points, etc. These ways need to be safe and viable and RchW. And only one of them must to be applied, normally the best, which minimises the proposed cost function. A Reachable Way, this means the controllable way and safe, will be evaluated in order to obtain which one minimises the cost function. Contribution of this work is a complete framework to work with the majority Hybrid systems, the procedures to model, control and supervise are defined and explained and its use is demonstrated. Also explained is the procedure to model the systems to be analysed for automatic verification. Great improvements were obtained by using this methodology in comparison to using other piecewise linear approximations. It is demonstrated in particular cases this methodology can provide best approximation. The most important contribution of this work, is the Alpha approximation for non-linear systems with high dynamics While this kind of process is not typical, but in this case the Alpha approximation is the best linear approximation to use, and give a compact representation.

An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

Late Quaternary highstands at Lake Chilwa, Malawi: frequency, timing and possible forcing mechanisms in the last 44ka

The extensive shoreline deposits of Lake Chilwa, southern Malawi, a shallow water body today covering 600 km2 of a basin of 7500 km2, are investigated for their record of late Quaternary highstands. OSL dating, applied to 36 samples from five sediment cores from the northern and western marginal sand ridges, reveal a highstand record spanning 44 ka. Using two different grouping methods, highstand phases are identified at 43.7–33.3 ka, 26.2–21.0 ka and 17.9–12.0 ka (total error method) or 38.4–35.5 ka, 24.3–22.3 ka, 16.2–15.1 ka and 13.5–12.7 ka (Finite Mixture Model age components) with two further discrete events recorded at 11.01 ± 0.76 ka and 8.52 ± 0.56 ka. Highstands are comparable to the timing of wet phases from other basins in East and southern Africa, demonstrating wet conditions in the region before the LGM, which was dry, and a wet Lateglacial, which commenced earlier in the southern compared to northern hemisphere in East Africa. We find no evidence that wet phases are insolation driven, but analysis of the dataset and GCM modelling experiments suggest that Heinrich events may be associated with enhanced monsoon activity in East Africa in both timing and as a possible causal mechanism.

The statistical cusp: a flux transfer event model

Traditionally, the cusp has been described in terms of a time-stationary feature of the magnetosphere which allows access of magnetosheath-like plasma to low altitudes. Statistical surveys of data from low-altitude spacecraft have shown the average characteristics and position of the cusp. Recently, however, it has been suggested that the ionospheric footprint of flux transfer events (FTEs) may be identified as variations of the “cusp” on timescales of a few minutes. In this model, the cusp can vary in form between a steady-state feature in one limit and a series of discrete ionospheric FTE signatures in the other limit. If this time-dependent cusp scenario is correct, then the signatures of the transient reconnection events must be able, on average, to reproduce the statistical cusp occurrence previously determined from the satellite observations. In this paper, we predict the precipitation signatures which are associated with transient magnetopause reconnection, following recent observations of the dependence of dayside ionospheric convection on the orientation of the IMF. We then employ a simple model of the longitudinal motion of FTE signatures to show how such events can easily reproduce the local time distribution of cusp occurrence probabilities, as observed by low-altitude satellites. This is true even in the limit where the cusp is a series of discrete events. Furthermore, we investigate the existence of double cusp patches predicted by the simple model and show how these events may be identified in the data.

Automatic code generation for microcontrollers from place-transition Petri net models

This paper describes a program for the automatic generation of code for Intel's 8051 microcontroller. The code is generated from a place-transition Petri net specification. Our goal is to minimize programming time. The code generated by our program has been observed to exactly match the net model. It has also been observed that no change is needed to be made to the generated code for its compilation to the target architecture. © 2011 IFAC.

Análise de estabilidade de sistemas dinâmicos híbridos e descontínuos modelados por semigrupos:

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Migração em profundidade pré-empilhamento utilizando os atributos cinemáticos do empilhamento por superfície de reflexão comum

O empilhamento por superfície de reflexão comum (ou empilhamento SRC), conhecido como empilhamento CRS, do inglês Commom reflection surface, constitui-se em um novo método para o processamento sísmico na simulação de seções afastamento nulo (AN) e afastamento comum (AC). Este método é baseado em uma aproximação paraxial hiperbólica de segunda ordem dos tempos de trânsito de reflexão na vizinhança de um raio central. Para a simulação de seção AN, o raio central é um raio normal, enquanto que para a simulação de uma seção AC o raio central é um raio de afastamento finito. Em adição à seção AN, o método de empilhamento SRC também fornece estimativas dos atributos cinemáticos do campo de onda, sendo aplicados, por exemplo, na determinação (por um processo de inversão) da velocidade intervalar, no cálculo do espalhamento geométrico, na estimativa da zona de Fresnel, e também na simulação de eventos de tempos de difrações, este último tendo uma grande importância para a migração pré-empilhamento. Neste trabalho é proposta uma nova estratégia para fazer uma migração em profundidade pré-empilhamento, que usa os atributos cinemáticos do campo de onda derivados do empilhamento SRC, conhecido por método CRS-PSDM, do inglês CRS based pre-stack depth migration. O método CRS-PSDM usa os resultados obtidos do método SRC, isto é, as seções dos atributos cinemáticos do campo de onda, para construir uma superfície de tempos de trânsito de empilhamento, ao longo da qual as amplitudes do dado sísmico de múltipla cobertura são somadas, sendo o resultado da soma atribuído a um dado ponto em profundidade, na zona alvo de migração que é definida por uma malha regular. Similarmente ao método convencional de migração tipo Kirchhoff (K-PSDM), o método CRS-PSDM precisa de um modelo de velocidade de migração. Contrário ao método K-PSDM, o método CRS-PSDM necessita apenas computar os tempos de trânsito afastamento nulo, ao seja, ao longo de um único raio ligando o ponto considerado em profundidade a uma dada posição de fonte e receptor coincidentes na superfície. O resultado final deste procedimento é uma imagem sísmica em profundidade dos refletores a partir do dado de múltipla cobertura.

A produção enxuta em um sistema de fabricação contínuo: aplicação da simulação discreta estocástica na indústria de condutores elétricos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Sequenciamento de linhas de montagem múltiplas em ambiente de produção enxuta utilizando simulação

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system Objectives: To compare costs and clinical benefits of three additional therapies to metformin (MF) for patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Methods: A discrete event simulation model seas built to estimate the cost-utility ratio (cost per quality-adjusted life years [QALY)) of saxagliptine as an additional therapy to MF when compared to rosiglitazone or pioglitazone. A budget impact model (BIM) was built to simulate the economic impact of saxagliptine use in the context of the Brazilian private health system. Results: The acquiring medication costs for the hypothetical patient group analyzed in a time frame of three years, were R$ 10,850,185, R$ 14,836,265 and R$ 14,679,099 for saxagliptine, pioglitazone and rosiglitazone, respectively. Saxagliptine showed lower costs and greater effectiveness in both comparisons, with projected savings for the first three years of R$ 3,874 and R$ 3,996, respectively. The BIM estimated cumulative savings of R$ 417,958 with the repayment of saxagliptine in three years from the perspective of a health plan with 1,000,000 covered individuals. Conclusion: From the perspective of private paying source, the projection is that adding saxagliptine with MF save costs when compared with the addition of rosiglitazone or pioglitazone in patients with DM2 that have not reached the HbA1c goal with metformin monotherapy. The BIM of including saxagliptine in the reimbursement lists of health plans indicated significant savings on the three-year horizon.

Operational research applied to regional healthcare system

In this thesis we focus on optimization and simulation techniques applied to solve strategic, tactical and operational problems rising in the healthcare sector. At first we present three applications to Emilia-Romagna Public Health System (SSR) developed in collaboration with Agenzia Sanitaria e Sociale dell'Emilia-Romagna (ASSR), a regional center for innovation and improvement in health. Agenzia launched a strategic campaign aimed at introducing Operations Research techniques as decision making tools to support technological and organizational innovations. The three applications focus on forecast and fund allocation of medical specialty positions, breast screening program extension and operating theater planning. The case studies exploit the potential of combinatorial optimization, discrete event simulation and system dynamics techniques to solve resource constrained problem arising within Emilia-Romagna territory. We then present an application in collaboration with Dipartimento di Epidemiologia del Lazio that focuses on population demand of service allocation to regional emergency departments. Finally, a simulation-optimization approach, developed in collaboration with INESC TECH center of Porto, to evaluate matching policies for the kidney exchange problem is discussed.