Modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviour : a review and outlook

Public transport is one of the key promoters of sustainable urban transport. To encourage and increase public transport patronage it is important to investigate the route choice behaviours of urban public transit users. This chapter reviews the main developments of modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviours in a historical perspective, from the 1960s to the present time. The approaches re- viewed for this study include the early heuristic studies on finding the least-cost transit route and all-or- nothing transit assignment, the bus common lines problem, the disaggregate discrete choice models, the deterministic and stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment models, and the recent dynamic transit assignment models. This chapter also provides an outlook for the future directions of modelling transit users’ route choice behaviours. Through the comparison with the development of models for motorists’ route choice and traffic assignment problems, this chapter advocates that transit route choice research should draw inspiration from the research outcomes from the road area, and that the modelling practice of transit users’ route choice should further explore the behavioural complexities.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Non-market use and non-use values for preserving ecosystem services over time : a choice experiment application to coral reef ecosystems in New Caledonia

Non-use values (i.e. economic values assigned by individuals to ecosystem goods and services unrelated to current or future uses) provide one of the most compelling incentives for the preservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. Assessing the non-use values of non-users is relatively straightforward using stated preference methods, but the standard approaches for estimating non-use values of users (stated decomposition) have substantial shortcomings which undermine the robustness of their results. In this paper, we propose a pragmatic interpretation of non-use values to derive estimates that capture their main dimensions, based on the identification of a willingness to pay for ecosystem protection beyond one's expected life. We empirically test our approach using a choice experiment conducted on coral reef ecosystem protection in two coastal areas in New Caledonia with different institutional, cultural, environmental and socio-economic contexts. We compute individual willingness to pay estimates, and derive individual non-use value estimates using our interpretation. We find that, a minima, estimates of non-use values may comprise between 25 and 40% of the mean willingness to pay for ecosystem preservation, less than has been found in most studies.

Measurement of transit network accessibility based on access stop choice behaviour

This research improved the measurement of public transport accessibility by capturing; travellers' behaviour; diversity of public transport mode; and the subjectivity of travellers' decision in the complex transport networks. The results of this research not only highlighted the importance of considering public transport network characteristics but also, revealed the impact of public transport diversity in the modelling of public transport accessibility. The research developed a hybrid discrete choice model with a nested logit structure to treat the correlation among the public transport mode choices and, a logit correction factor to rectify the correlation among the stop choices.

Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Random Regret Minimization: Exploration of a New Choice Model for Environmental and Resource Economics

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dominant choice-modelling paradigm based on Random Utility Maximization-theory (RUM-theory). We highlight how RRM-based models provide closed form, logit-type formulations for choice probabilities that allow for capturing semi-compensatory behaviour and choice set-composition effects while being equally parsimonious as their utilitarian counterparts. Using data from a Stated Choice-experiment aimed at identifying valuations of characteristics of nature parks, we compare RRM-based models and RUM-based models in terms of parameter estimates, goodness of fit, elasticities and consequential policy implications.

Utility in Willingness to Pay Space: A Tool to Address Confounding Random Scale Effects in Destination Choice to the Alps

We compare two approaches for estimating the distribution of consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) in discrete choice models. The usual procedure is to estimate the distribution of the utility coefficients and then derive the distribution of WTP, which is the ratio of coefficients. The alternative is to estimate the distribution of WTP directly. We apply both approaches to data on site choice in the Alps. We find that the alternative approach fits the data better, reduces the incidence of exceedingly large estimated WTP values, and provides the analyst with greater control in specifying and testing the distribution of WTP. © 2008 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

Ordering effects and choice set awareness in repeat-response stated preference studies

We present an experiment designed to investigate the presence and nature of ordering effects within repeat-response stated preference (SP) studies. Our experiment takes the form of a large sample, full-factorial, discrete choice SP exercise investigating preferences for tap water quality improvements. Our study simultaneously investigates a variety of different forms of position-dependent and precedent-dependent ordering effect in preferences for attributes and options and in response randomness. We also examine whether advanced disclosure of the choice tasks impacts on the probability of exhibiting ordering effects of those different types. We analyze our data both non-parametrically and parametrically and find robust evidence for ordering effects. We also find that the patterns of order effect in respondents' preferences are significantly changed but not eradicated by the advanced disclosure of choice tasks a finding that offers insights into the choice behaviors underpinning order effects. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

Trading off dietary choices, physical exercise and cardiovascular disease risks

Despite several decades of decline, cardiovascular diseases are still the most common causes of death in Western societies. Sedentary living and high fat diets contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases. This paper analyses the trade-offs between lifestyle choices defined in terms of diet, physical activity, cost, and risk of cardiovascular disease that a representative sample of the population of Northern Ireland aged 40-65 are willing to make. Using computer assisted personal interviews, we survey 493 individuals at their homes using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaire administered between February and July 2011 in Northern Ireland. Unlike most DCE studies for valuing public health programs, this questionnaire uses a tailored exercise, based on the individuals’ baseline choices. A “fat screener” module in the questionnaire links personal cardiovascular disease risk to each specific choice set in terms of dietary constituents. Individuals are informed about their real status quo risk of a fatal cardiovascular event, based on an initial set of health questions. Thus, actual risks, real diet and exercise choices are the elements that constitute the choice task. Our results show that our respondents are willing to pay for reducing mortality risk and, more importantly, are willing to change physical exercise and dietary behaviours. In particular, we find that to improve their lifestyles, overweight and obese people would be more likely to do more physical activity than to change their diets. Therefore, public policies aimed to target obesity and its related illnesses in Northern Ireland should invest public money in promoting physical activity rather than healthier diets.

Applying Health Locus of Control and Latent Class Modelling to food and physical activity choices affecting CVD risk

Health Locus of Control (HLC) classifies our beliefs about the connection between our actions and health outcomes (Skinner, 1996) into three categories: “internal control”, corresponding to health being the result of an individual's effort and habits; “control by powerful others”, whereby health depends on others, such as doctors; and “chance control”, according to which health depends on fate and chance. Using Choice Experiments we investigate the relationship between HLC and willingness to change lifestyle, in terms of eating habits, physical activity and associated cardiovascular disease risk, in a 384 person sample representative of the 40–65 aged population of Northern Ireland administered between February and July 2011. Using latent class analysis we identify three discrete classes of people based on their HLC: the first class is sceptical about their capacity to control their health and certain unhealthy habits. Despite being unsatisfied with their situation, they are reluctant to accept behaviour changes. The second is a group of individuals unhappy with their current situation but willing to change through exercise and diet. Finally, a group of healthy optimists is identified, who are satisfied with their current situation but happy to take more physical activity and improve their diet. Our findings show that any policy designed to modify people's health related behaviour should consider the needs of this sceptical class which represents a considerable proportion of the population in the region.

Tarification logit dans un réseau

Le problème de tarification qui nous intéresse ici consiste à maximiser le revenu généré par les usagers d'un réseau de transport. Pour se rendre à leurs destinations, les usagers font un choix de route et utilisent des arcs sur lesquels nous imposons des tarifs. Chaque route est caractérisée (aux yeux de l'usager) par sa "désutilité", une mesure de longueur généralisée tenant compte à la fois des tarifs et des autres coûts associés à son utilisation. Ce problème a surtout été abordé sous une modélisation déterministe de la demande selon laquelle seules des routes de désutilité minimale se voient attribuer une mesure positive de flot. Le modèle déterministe se prête bien à une résolution globale, mais pèche par manque de réalisme. Nous considérons ici une extension probabiliste de ce modèle, selon laquelle les usagers d'un réseau sont alloués aux routes d'après un modèle de choix discret logit. Bien que le problème de tarification qui en résulte est non linéaire et non convexe, il conserve néanmoins une forte composante combinatoire que nous exploitons à des fins algorithmiques. Notre contribution se répartit en trois articles. Dans le premier, nous abordons le problème d'un point de vue théorique pour le cas avec une paire origine-destination. Nous développons une analyse de premier ordre qui exploite les propriétés analytiques de l'affectation logit et démontrons la validité de règles de simplification de la topologie du réseau qui permettent de réduire la dimension du problème sans en modifier la solution. Nous établissons ensuite l'unimodalité du problème pour une vaste gamme de topologies et nous généralisons certains de nos résultats au problème de la tarification d'une ligne de produits. Dans le deuxième article, nous abordons le problème d'un point de vue numérique pour le cas avec plusieurs paires origine-destination. Nous développons des algorithmes qui exploitent l'information locale et la parenté des formulations probabilistes et déterministes. Un des résultats de notre analyse est l'obtention de bornes sur l'erreur commise par les modèles combinatoires dans l'approximation du revenu logit. Nos essais numériques montrent qu'une approximation combinatoire rudimentaire permet souvent d'identifier des solutions quasi-optimales. Dans le troisième article, nous considérons l'extension du problème à une demande hétérogène. L'affectation de la demande y est donnée par un modèle de choix discret logit mixte où la sensibilité au prix d'un usager est aléatoire. Sous cette modélisation, l'expression du revenu n'est pas analytique et ne peut être évaluée de façon exacte. Cependant, nous démontrons que l'utilisation d'approximations non linéaires et combinatoires permet d'identifier des solutions quasi-optimales. Finalement, nous en profitons pour illustrer la richesse du modèle, par le biais d'une interprétation économique, et examinons plus particulièrement la contribution au revenu des différents groupes d'usagers.

Bayesian inference and model comparison for random choice structures

We complete the development of a testing ground for axioms of discrete stochastic choice. Our contribution here is to develop new posterior simulation methods for Bayesian inference, suitable for a class of prior distributions introduced by McCausland and Marley (2013). These prior distributions are joint distributions over various choice distributions over choice sets of di fferent sizes. Since choice distributions over di fferent choice sets can be mutually dependent, previous methods relying on conjugate prior distributions do not apply. We demonstrate by analyzing data from a previously reported experiment and report evidence for and against various axioms.

Essais en économetrie et économie de l'éducation

Cette thèse est organisée en trois chapitres. Les deux premiers s'intéressent à l'évaluation, par des méthodes d'estimations, de l'effet causal ou de l'effet d'un traitement, dans un environnement riche en données. Le dernier chapitre se rapporte à l'économie de l'éducation. Plus précisément dans ce chapitre j'évalue l'effet de la spécialisation au secondaire sur le choix de filière à l'université et la performance. Dans le premier chapitre, j'étudie l'estimation efficace d'un paramètre de dimension finie dans un modèle linéaire où le nombre d'instruments peut être très grand ou infini. L'utilisation d'un grand nombre de conditions de moments améliore l'efficacité asymptotique des estimateurs par variables instrumentales, mais accroit le biais. Je propose une version régularisée de l'estimateur LIML basée sur trois méthodes de régularisations différentes, Tikhonov, Landweber Fridman, et composantes principales, qui réduisent le biais. Le deuxième chapitre étend les travaux précédents, en permettant la présence d'un grand nombre d'instruments faibles. Le problème des instruments faibles est la consequence d'un très faible paramètre de concentration. Afin d'augmenter la taille du paramètre de concentration, je propose d'augmenter le nombre d'instruments. Je montre par la suite que les estimateurs 2SLS et LIML régularisés sont convergents et asymptotiquement normaux. Le troisième chapitre de cette thèse analyse l'effet de la spécialisation au secondaire sur le choix de filière à l'université. En utilisant des données américaines, j'évalue la relation entre la performance à l'université et les différents types de cours suivis pendant les études secondaires. Les résultats suggèrent que les étudiants choisissent les filières dans lesquelles ils ont acquis plus de compétences au secondaire. Cependant, on a une relation en U entre la diversification et la performance à l'université, suggérant une tension entre la spécialisation et la diversification. Le compromis sous-jacent est évalué par l'estimation d'un modèle structurel de l'acquisition du capital humain au secondaire et de choix de filière. Des analyses contrefactuelles impliquent qu'un cours de plus en matière quantitative augmente les inscriptions dans les filières scientifiques et technologiques de 4 points de pourcentage.

Information customization and food choice

In this paper we employ a hypothetical discrete choice experiment (DCE) to examine how much consumers are willing to pay to use technology to customize their food shopping. We conjecture that customized information provision can aid in the composition of a healthier shop. Our results reveal that consumers are prepared to pay relatively more for individual specic information as opposed to generic nutritional information that is typically provided on food labels. In arriving at these results we have examined various model specications including those that make use of ex-post de-brieng questions on attribute nonattendance and attribute ranking information and those that consider the time taken to complete the survey. Our main results are robust to the various model specications we examine

The effects of attitudes and personality traits on mode choice

We hypothesise that differences in people's attitudes and personality traits lead them to attribute varying importance to environmental considerations, safety, comfort, convenience and flexibility. Differences in personality traits call be revealed not only in the individuals' choice of transport, but also in other actions of their everyday lives-such as how much they recycle, whether they take precautions or avoid dangerous pursuits. Conditioning on a set of exogenous individual characteristics, we use indicators of attitudes and personality traits to form latent variables for inclusion in an, otherwise standard, discrete mode choice model. With a sample of Swedish commuters, we find that both attitudes towards flexibility and comfort, as well as being pro-environmentally inclined, influence the individual's choice of mode. Although modal time and cost still are important, it follows that there are other ways, apart from economic incentives, to attract individuals to the, from society's perspective, desirable public modes of transport. Our results should provide useful information to policy-makers and transportation planners developing sustainable transportation systems.