Integrating new and traditional approaches for the estimate of slip-rates of active faults: examples from the Mw 6.3, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake area, Central Italy

This thesis is based on the integration of traditional and innovative approaches aimed at improving the normal faults seimogenic identification and characterization, focusing mainly on slip-rate estimate as a measure of the fault activity. The L’Aquila Mw 6.3 April 6, 2009 earthquake causative fault, namely the Paganica - San Demetrio fault system (PSDFS), was used as a test site. We developed a multidisciplinary and scale‐based strategy consisting of paleoseismological investigations, detailed geomorphological and geological field studies, as well as shallow geophysical imaging and an innovative application of physical properties measurements. We produced a detailed geomorphological and geological map of the PSDFS, defining its tectonic style, arrangement, kinematics, extent, geometry and internal complexities. The PSDFS is a 19 km-long tectonic structure, characterized by a complex structural setting and arranged in two main sectors: the Paganica sector to the NW, characterized by a narrow deformation zone, and the San Demetrio sector to SE, where the strain is accommodated by several tectonic structures, exhuming and dissecting a wide Quaternary basin, suggesting the occurrence of strain migration through time. The integration of all the fault displacement data and age constraints (radiocarbon dating, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and tephrochronology) helped in calculating an average Quaternary slip-rate representative for the PSDFS of 0.27 - 0.48 mm/yr. On the basis of its length (ca. 20 km) and slip per event (up to 0.8 m) we also estimated a max expected Magnitude of 6.3-6.8 for this fault. All these topics have a significant implication in terms of surface faulting hazard in the area and may contribute also to the understanding of the PSDFS seismic behavior and of the local seismic hazard.

Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Functional imbalance of visual pathways indicates alternative face processing strategies in autism

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether autistic subjects show a different pattern of neural activity than healthy individuals during processing of faces and complex patterns. METHODS: Blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal changes accompanying visual processing of faces and complex patterns were analyzed in an autistic group (n = 7; 25.3 [6.9] years) and a control group (n = 7; 27.7 [7.8] years). RESULTS: Compared with unaffected subjects, autistic subjects demonstrated lower BOLD signals in the fusiform gyrus, most prominently during face processing, and higher signals in the more object-related medial occipital gyrus. Further signal increases in autistic subjects vs controls were found in regions highly important for visual search: the superior parietal lobule and the medial frontal gyrus, where the frontal eye fields are located. CONCLUSIONS: The cortical activation pattern during face processing indicates deficits in the face-specific regions, with higher activations in regions involved in visual search. These findings reflect different strategies for visual processing, supporting models that propose a predisposition to local rather than global modes of information processing in autism.

Lake sediments as archives of recurrence rates and intensities of past flood events

Palaeoflood hydrology is an expanding field as the damage potential of flood and flood-related processes are increasing with the population density and the value of the infrastructure. Assessing the risk of these hazards in mountainous terrain requires knowledge about the frequency and severness of such events in the past. A wide range of methods is employed using diverse biologic, geomorphic or geologic evidences to track past flood events. Impact of floods are studied and dated on alluvial fans and cones using for example the growth disturbance of trees (Stoffel and Bollschweiler 2008; Schneuwly-Bollschweiler and Stoffel 2012: this volume) or stratigraphic layers deposited by debris flows, allowing to reconstruct past flood frequencies (Bardou et~al. 2003). Further downstream, the classical approach of palaeoflood hydrology (Kochel and Baker 1982) utilizes geomorphic indicators such as overbank sediments, silt lines and erosion features of floods along a river (e.g. Benito and Thorndycraft 2005). Fine-grained sediment settles out of the river suspension in eddies or backwater areas, where the flow velocity of the river is reduced. Records of these deposits at different elevations across a river’s profile can be used to assess the discharge of the past floods. This approach of palaeoflood hydrology studies was successfully applied in several river catchments (e.g. Ely et al. 1993; Macklin and Lewin 2003; O’Connor et al. 1994; Sheffer et al. 2003; Thorndycraft et al. 2005; Thorndycraft and Benito 2006). All these different reconstruction methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, but often these studies have a limited time coverage and the records are potentially incomplete due to lateral limits of depositional areas and due to the erosional power of fluvial processes that remove previously deposited flood witnesses. Here, we present a method that follows the sediment particle transported by a flood event to its final sink: the lacustrine basin.

Deciphering the driving forces of erosion rates on millennial to million-year timescales in glacially impacted landscapes: An example from the Western Alps

In many regions, tectonic uplift is the main driver of erosion over million-year (Myr) timescales, but climate changes can markedly affect the link between tectonics and erosion, causing transient variations in erosion rates. Here we study the driving forces of millennial to Myr-scale erosion rates in the French Western Alps, as estimated from in situ produced cosmogenic 10Be and a newly developed approach integrating detrital and bedrock apatite fission-track thermochronology. Millennial erosion rates from 10Be analyses vary between ~0.27 and ~1.33 m/kyr, similar to rates measured in adjacent areas of the Alps. Significant positive correlations of millennial erosion rates with geomorphic measures, in particular with the LGM ice thickness, reveal a strong transient morphological and erosional perturbation caused by repeated Quaternary glaciations. The perturbation appears independent of Myr-scale uplift and erosion gradients, with the effect that millennial erosion rates exceed Myr-scale erosion rates only in the internal Alps where the latter are low (<0.4 km/Myr). These areas, moreover, exhibit channels that clearly plot above a general linear positive relation between Myr-scale erosion rates and normalized steepness index. Glacial erosion acts irrespective of rock uplift and thus not only leads to an overall increase in erosion rates but also regulates landscape morphology and erosion rates in regions with considerable spatial gradients in Myr-scale tectonic uplift. Our study demonstrates that climate change, e.g., through occurrence of major glaciations, can markedly perturb landscape morphology and related millennial erosion rate patterns, even in regions where Myr-scale erosion rates are dominantly controlled by tectonics.

Next-generation sequencing of HIV-1 RNA genomes: determination of error rates and minimizing artificial recombination.

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is a valuable tool for the detection and quantification of HIV-1 variants in vivo. However, these technologies require detailed characterization and control of artificially induced errors to be applicable for accurate haplotype reconstruction. To investigate the occurrence of substitutions, insertions, and deletions at the individual steps of RT-PCR and NGS, 454 pyrosequencing was performed on amplified and non-amplified HIV-1 genomes. Artificial recombination was explored by mixing five different HIV-1 clonal strains (5-virus-mix) and applying different RT-PCR conditions followed by 454 pyrosequencing. Error rates ranged from 0.04-0.66% and were similar in amplified and non-amplified samples. Discrepancies were observed between forward and reverse reads, indicating that most errors were introduced during the pyrosequencing step. Using the 5-virus-mix, non-optimized, standard RT-PCR conditions introduced artificial recombinants in a fraction of at least 30% of the reads that subsequently led to an underestimation of true haplotype frequencies. We minimized the fraction of recombinants down to 0.9-2.6% by optimized, artifact-reducing RT-PCR conditions. This approach enabled correct haplotype reconstruction and frequency estimations consistent with reference data obtained by single genome amplification. RT-PCR conditions are crucial for correct frequency estimation and analysis of haplotypes in heterogeneous virus populations. We developed an RT-PCR procedure to generate NGS data useful for reliable haplotype reconstruction and quantification.

Moving beyond transition outcomes: meta-analysis of remission rates in individuals at high clinical risk for psychosis

Recent evidence suggests that transition risks from initial clinical high risk (CHR) status to psychosis are decreasing. The role played by remission in this context is mostly unknown. The present study addresses this issue by means of a meta-analysis including eight relevant studies published up to January 2012 that reported remission rates from an initial CHR status. The primary effect size measure was the longitudinal proportion of remissions compared to non-remission in subjects with a baseline CHR state. Random effect models were employed to address the high heterogeneity across studies included. To assess the robustness of the results, we performed sensitivity analyses by sequentially removing each study and rerunning the analysis. Of 773 subjects who met initial CHR criteria, 73% did not convert to psychosis along a 2-year follow. Of these, about 46% fully remitted from the baseline attenuated psychotic symptoms, as evaluated on the psychometric measures usually employed by prodromal services. The corresponding clinical remission was estimated as high as 35% of the baseline CHR sample. The CHR state is associated with a significant proportion of remitting subjects that can be accounted by the effective treatments received, a lead time bias, a dilution effect, a comorbid effect of other psychiatric diagnoses.

Intraoperative monopolar mapping during 5-ALA-guided resections of glioblastomas adjacent to motor eloquent areas: evaluation of resection rates and neurological outcome.

OBJECT Resection of glioblastoma adjacent to motor cortex or subcortical motor pathways carries a high risk of both incomplete resection and postoperative motor deficits. Although the strategy of maximum safe resection is widely accepted, the rates of complete resection of enhancing tumor (CRET) and the exact causes for motor deficits (mechanical vs vascular) are not always known. The authors report the results of their concept of combining monopolar mapping and 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA)-guided surgery in patients with glioblastoma adjacent to eloquent tissue. METHODS The authors prospectively studied 72 consecutive patients who underwent 5-ALA-guided surgery for a glioblastoma adjacent to the corticospinal tract (CST; < 10 mm) with continuous dynamic monopolar motor mapping (short-train interstimulus interval 4.0 msec, pulse duration 500 μsec) coupled to an acoustic motor evoked potential (MEP) alarm. The extent of resection was determined based on early (< 48 hours) postoperative MRI findings. Motor function was assessed 1 day after surgery, at discharge, and at 3 months. RESULTS Five patients were excluded because of nonadherence to protocol; thus, 67 patients were evaluated. The lowest motor threshold reached during individual surgery was as follows (motor threshold, number of patients): > 20 mA, n = 8; 11-20 mA, n = 13; 6-10 mA, n = 10; 4-5 mA, n = 13; and 1-3 mA, n = 23. Motor deterioration at postsurgical Day 1 and at discharge occurred in 30% (n = 20) and 10% (n = 7) of patients, respectively. At 3 months, 3 patients (4%) had a persisting postoperative motor deficit, 2 caused by vascular injury and 1 by mechanical injury. The rates of intra- and postoperative seizures were 1% and 0%, respectively. Complete resection of enhancing tumor was achieved in 73% of patients (49/67) despite proximity to the CST. CONCLUSIONS A rather high rate of CRET can be achieved in glioblastomas in motor eloquent areas via a combination of 5-ALA for tumor identification and intraoperative mapping for distinguishing between presumed and actual motor eloquent tissues. Continuous dynamic mapping was found to be a very ergonomic technique that localizes the motor tissue early and reliably.

A simulation study on the statistical monitoring of condemnation rates from slaughterhouses for syndromic surveillance: an evaluation based on Swiss data

Syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems currently exploit various sources of health-related data, most of which are collected for purposes other than surveillance (e.g. economic). Several European SyS systems use data collected during meat inspection for syndromic surveillance of animal health, as some diseases may be more easily detected post-mortem than at their point of origin or during the ante-mortem inspection upon arrival at the slaughterhouse. In this paper we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a quasi-Poisson regression (also known as an improved Farrington) algorithm for the detection of disease outbreaks during post-mortem inspection of slaughtered animals. When parameterizing the algorithm based on the retrospective analyses of 6 years of historic data, the probability of detection was satisfactory for large (range 83-445 cases) outbreaks but poor for small (range 20-177 cases) outbreaks. Varying the amount of historical data used to fit the algorithm can help increasing the probability of detection for small outbreaks. However, while the use of a 0·975 quantile generated a low false-positive rate, in most cases, more than 50% of outbreak cases had already occurred at the time of detection. High variance observed in the whole carcass condemnations time-series, and lack of flexibility in terms of the temporal distribution of simulated outbreaks resulting from low reporting frequency (monthly), constitute major challenges for early detection of outbreaks in the livestock population based on meat inspection data. Reporting frequency should be increased in the future to improve timeliness of the SyS system while increased sensitivity may be achieved by integrating meat inspection data into a multivariate system simultaneously evaluating multiple sources of data on livestock health.

NRAS and BRAF mutations in primary cutaneous melanoma: A comparison of mutation rates between radial and vertical growth phases in individual tumors

Primary cutaneous melanoma is a cancer arising from melanocytes in the skin. In recent decades the incidence of this malignancy has increased significantly. Mortality rates are high for patients with tumors measuring over a few millimeters in thickness. Response rates to conventional radiation and chemotherapy are very low in patients with metastatic melanoma. New therapies targeting melanoma’s aberrant cell signaling pathways such as the MAP Kinase pathway are being developed. Mutations of NRAS and BRAF genes are quite common in cutaneous melanoma and lead to constitutive activation of the MAP Kinase pathway. This study tests the hypothesis that NRAS and BRAF mutations increase as a tumor progresses from the noninvasive radial growth phase (RGP) to the invasive vertical growth phase (VGP). Laser capture microdissection was used to obtain separate, pure tumor DNA samples from the RGP and VGP of thirty primary cutaneous melanomas. PCR was used to amplify NRAS exon 2 and BRAF exon 15 tumor DNA. The amplified DNA was sequenced and analyzed for mutations. An overall mutation rate of 74% was obtained for the twenty-three melanomas in which there were complete sequence results. With the exception of one melanoma NRAS and BRAF mutations were mutually exclusive. All seven NRAS exon 2 mutations involved codon 61. Three of these melanomas had mutations in both the RGP and VGP. The remaining four tumors were wild type for NRAS exon 2 in the RGP but mutated in the VGP. Of the fifteen BRAF exon 15 mutated melanomas all but one involved codon 600. Twelve of the fifteen BRAF exon 15 mutations were the T1799A type. Nine of the fifteen BRAF mutated tumors had the same mutation in both the RGP and VGP. Five of fifteen melanomas had wild type RGP DNA and BRAF exon 15 mutated VGP DNA. A single melanoma had BRAF exon 15 mutated DNA in the RGP and wild type DNA in the VGP. Overall, these results suggest a trend toward the acquisition of NRAS and BRAF mutations as cutaneous melanomas change from a noninvasive to an invasive, potentially deadly cancer.^