Effects of Mitochondrial DNA Rate Variation on Reconstruction of Pleistocene Demographic History in a Social Avian Species, Pomatostomus superciliosus

Mitochondrial sequence data is often used to reconstruct the demographic history of Pleistocene populations in an effort to understand how species have responded to past climate change events. However, departures from neutral equilibrium conditions can confound evolutionary inference in species with structured populations or those that have experienced periods of population expansion or decline. Selection can affect patterns of mitochondrial DNA variation and variable mutation rates among mitochondrial genes can compromise inferences drawn from single markers. We investigated the contribution of these factors to patterns of mitochondrial variation and estimates of time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for two clades in a co-operatively breeding avian species, the white-browed babbler Pomatostomus superciliosus. Both the protein-coding ND3 gene and hypervariable domain I control region sequences showed departures from neutral expectations within the superciliosus clade, and a two-fold difference in TMRCA estimates. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis provided evidence of departure from a strict clock model of molecular evolution in domain I, leading to an over-estimation of TMRCA for the superciliosus clade at this marker. Our results suggest mitochondrial studies that attempt to reconstruct Pleistocene demographic histories should rigorously evaluate data for departures from neutral equilibrium expectations, including variation in evolutionary rates across multiple markers. Failure to do so can lead to serious errors in the estimation of evolutionary parameters and subsequent demographic inferences concerning the role of climate as a driver of evolutionary change. These effects may be especially pronounced in species with complex social structures occupying heterogeneous environments. We propose that environmentally driven differences in social structure may explain observed differences in evolutionary rate of domain I sequences, resulting from longer than expected retention times for matriarchal lineages in the superciliosus clade.

A path model of psychosocial and health behaviour change predictors of excessive gestational weight gain

This study aimed to evaluate a conceptual model of psychosocial, behaviour change, and behavioural predictors of excessive gestational weight gain (GWG). Background: Excessive GWG can place women and their babies at risk of poor health outcomes, including obesity. Models of psychosocial and behaviour change predictors of excessive GWG have not been extensively explored; understanding the mechanisms leading to excess GWG will provide crucial evidence towards the development of effective interventions. Method: Two hundred and eighty-eight pregnant women (≤18 weeks gestation) were recruited to a prospective study. Demographic, psychosocial, health behaviour change, and behavioural factors were assessed at 17 (Time 1, T1) and 33 weeks (Time 2, T2) gestation. Pre-pregnancy and final pregnancy weight were obtained and women were classified with/without excessive GWG. Logistic regressions refined the list of predictors of excessive GWG; variables with p < .1 were included in a path analysis. Results: Age, family income, T2 depression, T2 pregnancy-specific coping, T1 buttocks dissatisfaction, T2 GWG-specific self-efficacy, T1 dietary readiness, T1 dietary importance, and T1 vegetable intake predicted excessive GWG in the logistic regressions and were included in the path model. The baseline path model demonstrated poor fit. Once statistically and theoretically plausible paths were added, adequate model fit was achieved (χ² = 21.61(9), p < .05; RMSEA = .07; CFI = .93); this revised model explained 19.5% of the variance in excessive GWG. Women with high T1 buttocks dissatisfaction were more likely to exhibit low levels of dietary readiness. Women with low dietary readiness were more likely to have a lower vegetable intake, which predicted excessive GWG. Women with higher T2 depressive symptoms were more likely to report lower GWG self-efficacy and gain excessively. Conclusion: Future behavioural GWG trials should consider combining psychosocial and health behaviour change factors to optimise GWG.

Future Students, Future Revenues: Thriving in a Decade of Demographic Decline:

Over the past decade, universities were able to grow revenue primarily by growing enrollment and increasing net tuition per student. But demographic and economic changes will make it increasingly difficult for all but a handful of institutions to grow tuition revenue at historic rates. Despite rising access rates, demographic projections suggest that the number of high school graduates will decline over the coming decade, leading to a dramatic drop-off in the overall rate of enrollment growth. The traditional population of 18- to 22-year-olds will remain a majority at most institutions, but enrollment growth will come primarily from other student segments. Populations such as community college transfers, international undergraduates, professional master’s students, and adult degree completers offer the best opportunities to grow enrollment and tuition revenue. Serving them well requires significant investments, new organizational models, and cultural change on campus. This can be done in a financially sustainable way—fulfilling the university’s mission to serve a diverse range of students while providing financial resources to support the core. This brief analyzes the forces that will shape higher education over the next decade and highlights the strategies and competencies that colleges and universities will need to be successful.

Belize: effects of climate change on agriculture

Incluye Bibliografía

Demographic processes in the montane Atlantic rainforest: Molecular and cytogenetic evidence from the endemic frog Proceratophrys boiei

Historical climatic refugia predict genetic diversity in lowland endemics of the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. Yet, available data reveal distinct biological responses to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions across species of different altitudinal ranges. We show that species occupying Brazil's montane forests were significantly less affected by LGM conditions relative to lowland specialists, but that pre-Pleistocene tectonics greatly influenced their geographic variation. Our conclusions are based on palaeoclimatic distribution models, molecular sequences of the cytochrome b, 16S, and RAG-1 genes, and karyotype data for the endemic frog Proceratophrys boiei. DNA and chromosomal data identify in P. boiei at least two broadly divergent phylogroups, which have not been distinguished morphologically. Cytogenetic results also indicate an area of hybridization in southern Sao Paulo. The location of the phylogeographic break broadly matches the location of a NW-SE fault, which underwent reactivation in the Neogene and led to remarkable landscape changes in southeastern Brazil. Our results point to different mechanisms underpinning diversity patterns in lowland versus montane tropical taxa, and help us to understand the processes responsible for the large number of narrow endemics currently observed in montane areas of the southern Atlantic forest hotspot. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phylogeography of an Atlantic forest passerine reveals demographic stability through the last glacial maximum

In this study we analyzed the phylogeographic pattern and historical demography of an endemic Atlantic forest (AF) bird, Basileuterus leucoblepharus, and test the influence of the last glacial maximum (LGM) on its population effective size using coalescent simulations. We address two main questions: (i) Does B. leucoblepharus present population genetic structure congruent with the patterns observed for other AF organisms? (ii) How did the LGM affect the effective population size of B. leucoblepharus? We sequenced 914 bp of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b and 512 bp of the nuclear intron 5 of beta-fibrinogen of 62 individuals from 15 localities along the AF. Both molecular markers revealed no genetic structure in B. leucoblepharus. Neutrality tests based on both loci showed significant demographic expansion. The extended Bayesian skyline plot showed that the species seems to have experienced demographic expansion starting around 300,000 years ago, during the late Pleistocene. This date does not coincide with the LGM and the dynamics of population size showed stability during the LGM. To further test the effect of the LGM on this species, we simulated seven demographic scenarios to explore whether populations suffered specific bottlenecks. The scenarios most congruent with our data were population stability during the LGM with bottlenecks older than this period. This is the first example of an AF organism that does not show phylogeographic breaks caused by vicariant events associated to climate change and geotectonic activities in the Quaternary. Differential ecological, environmental tolerances and habitat requirements are possibly influencing the different evolutionary histories of these organisms. Our results show that the history of organism diversification in this megadiverse Neotropical forest is complex. Crown Copyright (c) 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tradition, Change and Variation : Past and Present Trends in Public Old-age Care

The general aim of this dissertation is to describe and analyse how public old-age care in Sweden has developed and changed during the last century. The study applies a provider perspective on how care has been planned and professionally carried out. A broader social policy perspective, studying old-age care at central/national as well as local/municipal level, is also developed. A special focus is directed at the large local variation in care and services for the elderly. The empirical base is comprised of official documents and other public sources, survey data from interviews with elderly recipients of public old-age care, and official statistics on publicly financed and controlled old-age care and services. Study I addresses the development of old-age care in Sweden during the twentieth century by studying an important occupation in this field – the supervisors and their professional roles, tasks and working conditions. Throughout, the roles of supervisors have followed the prevailing official policy on the proper way to provide care for elderly people in Sweden; from poor relief at the beginning of the 1900s, via a generous level of services in the 1960s and 1970s, to today’s restricted and economy-controlled mode of operation. Study II describes and compares two main forms of public old-age care in Sweden today, home help services and institutional care. The care-load found in home-based care was comparable to and sometimes even larger than in service-homes and other institutions, indicating that large care needs among elderly people in Sweden today can be met in their homes as well as in institutional settings. Studies III and IV analyse the local variation in public old-age care in Sweden. During the last decades there has been an overall decline in home help services. The coverage of home help for elderly people shows large differences between municipalities throughout this period, and the relative variation has increased. The local disparity seems to depend more on historical factors, e.g., previous coverage rates, than on the present municipal situation in levels of need or local economy and politics. In an introductory part the four papers are linked together by an outline of the demographic situation and the social policy model for old-age care in Sweden. Trends that have been apparent over time, e.g. professionalisation and market orientation, are traced and discussed. Conflicts between prevailing ideologies are analysed, in regards to for instance home-based and institution-based care, social and medical culture, and local and central levels of decision-making. ’Welfare municipality’, ‘path dependency’, and ‘decentralisation’ are suggested as a conceptual framework for describing the large and increasing local variations in old-age care. Finally, implications of the four studies with regard to old-age care policy and further research are discussed.

Man-induced activities modify demographic parameters in a long-lived species: effects of poisoning and health policies

Recent changes in sanitary policies within the European Union (EU) concerning disposal of carcasses of domestic animals and the increase of non-natural mortality factors, such as illegal poisoning, are threatening European vultures. However, the effects of anthropogenic activities on demographic parameters are poorly studied. Using a long-term study (1994–2011) of the threatened Pyrenean Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus population, we assess the variation in the proportion of breeding pairs, egg-laying dates, clutch size, breeding success, and survival following a sharp reduction in food availability in 2005 due to the application of restrictive sanitary policies decreasing livestock carcass availability. We found a delay in laying dates and a regressive trend in clutch size, breeding success, and survival following policy change. The maintenance of specific supplementary feeding stations for Bearded Vultures probably reduced the negative effects of illegal poisoning and food shortages, which mainly affected subadult survival. A drop in food availability may have produced changes in demographic parameters and an increase in mortality due to an increased exposure to contaminated food. As a result, supplementary feeding as a precautionary measure can be a useful tool to reduce illegal poisoning and declines in demographic parameters until previous food availability scenarios are achieved. This study shows how anthropogenic activities through human health regulations that affect habitat quality can suddenly modify demographic parameters in long-lived species, including those, such as survival, with high sensitivity to population growth rate.

Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

Fluctuations in the Δ14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800–650 and 400–100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450–1250 BC, 650–450 BC, 50 BC–100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of forest clearances and field extensions occur, allowing the reoccupation of previously abandoned areas. Spatial distribution of cereal cultivation and growth requirements of Cerealia species suggest that increases in precipitation were far more decisive in driving crop failures over central and southern Europe than temperature decreases.

A categorical data analysis approach to estimation of demographic characteristics for Texas county populations

The need for timely population data for health planning and Indicators of need has Increased the demand for population estimates. The data required to produce estimates is difficult to obtain and the process is time consuming. Estimation methods that require less effort and fewer data are needed. The structure preserving estimator (SPREE) is a promising technique not previously used to estimate county population characteristics. This study first uses traditional regression estimation techniques to produce estimates of county population totals. Then the structure preserving estimator, using the results produced in the first phase as constraints, is evaluated.^ Regression methods are among the most frequently used demographic methods for estimating populations. These methods use symptomatic indicators to predict population change. This research evaluates three regression methods to determine which will produce the best estimates based on the 1970 to 1980 indicators of population change. Strategies for stratifying data to improve the ability of the methods to predict change were tested. Difference-correlation using PMSA strata produced the equation which fit the data the best. Regression diagnostics were used to evaluate the residuals.^ The second phase of this study is to evaluate use of the structure preserving estimator in making estimates of population characteristics. The SPREE estimation approach uses existing data (the association structure) to establish the relationship between the variable of interest and the associated variable(s) at the county level. Marginals at the state level (the allocation structure) supply the current relationship between the variables. The full allocation structure model uses current estimates of county population totals to limit the magnitude of county estimates. The limited full allocation structure model has no constraints on county size. The 1970 county census age - gender population provides the association structure, the allocation structure is the 1980 state age - gender distribution.^ The full allocation model produces good estimates of the 1980 county age - gender populations. An unanticipated finding of this research is that the limited full allocation model produces estimates of county population totals that are superior to those produced by the regression methods. The full allocation model is used to produce estimates of 1986 county population characteristics. ^

THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF A COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ON DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES IN HIMALAYAN INDIAN VILLAGES

A community development program operating in the mountains of North India was studied to assess its potential effects on mortality, fertility and migration patterns in the community which it served. The development program operated in Jaunpur Block, Tehri-Garhwal District, Uttar Pradesh State. Two comparable villages in the district were studied. The development program had been working in one for two years, and the other was completely untouched by the program.^ Since not enough time had elapsed since the beginning of the development program's work for any effects on demographic patterns to be visable in Jaunpur Block, this study looked to attitudes of village residents as indicators of future demographic trends. Existing demographic patterns and their interrelationship with socio-religious customs were examined in the test village. A questionnaire was then administered to ascertain attitudinal differences between the residents of the test village and the control village.^ The primary work of the community development program was to train women as village health workers. The results of the attitudinal comparison of the residents of the two villages showed a marked difference in attitudes relating to the position of women in society. The data showed a higher esteem for women in the test village than in the control village, and it is argued that this difference may be attributable to the work of the development program.^ Predicting future demographic trends in Jaunpur Block on the basis of the observed difference in villagers' attitudes toward the status of women is speculatory. Jaunpur Block appears to be in the demographic stage of pre-transition, maintaining relatively high rates of both mortality and fertility. Based on demographic transition theory the next significant change in demographic patterns in Jaunpur is predicted to be a decline in mortality, and an increase in the status of women is unrelated to this prediction.^ The community development program which was studied terminated unexpectedly during the time of this study. A case study of the program's final months is presented, and speculation on the future course of demographic trends in Jaunpur Block is related to the possible alternatives for future development in the area. ^

BLOOD PRESSURE CHANGES IN RELATION TO DEMOGRAPHIC, ANTHROPOMETRIC, AND SEXUAL MATURATION VARIABLES IN U.S. HEALTH EXAMINATION SURVEY OF CHILDREN AND YOUTHS (UNITED STATES)

The determinants of change in blood pressure during childhood and adolescence were studied in a cohort of U.S. national probability sample of 2146 children examined on two occasions during the Health Examination Survey. Significant negative correlations between the initial level and the subsequent changes in blood pressure were observed. The multiple regression analyses showed that the major determinants of systolic blood pressure (SBP) change were change in weight, baseline SBP, and baseline upper arm girth. Race, time interval between examinations, baseline age, and height change were also significant determinants in SBP change. For the change in diastolic blood pressure (DBP), baseline DBP, baseline weight, and weight change were the major determinants. Baseline SBP, time interval and race were also significant determinants. Sexual maturation variables were also considered in the subgroup analysis for girls. Weight change was the most important predictor of the change in SBP for the group of girls who were still in the pre-menarchal or pre-breast maturation status at the time of the follow-up examination, and who had started to menstruate or to develop breast maturation at sometime between the two examinations. Baseline triceps skinfold thickness or initial SBP were more important variables than weight change for the group of girls who had already experienced menarche or breast maturation at the time of the initial survey. For the total group, pubic hair maturation was found to be a significant predictor of SBP change at the 5% significance level. The importance of weight change and baseline weight for the changes in blood pressure warrants further study. ^

Exploring public support for climate change adaptation policies in the Mediterranean region: A case study in Southern Spain.

The understanding of public perception to climate change is an essential factor in the development of adaptation policies. In the Mediterranean, agriculture, as the largest consumer of freshwater, has the highest potential to suffer adverse impacts of climate change. Future water availability predictions, conflicting interests among stakeholders and an increasing social concern about the environment further aggravate the situation. Therefore studying public support for adaptation policies can play a key role in successfully adapting the sector. The study site, approximately 36,000 hectares of rice fields in Seville (Spain), exemplifies an area in the Mediterranean where water needs to be carefully re-allocated in view of the limitations anticipated by climate change scenarios; in particular where conflicts will arise between water for agriculture and water for ‘natural’ ecosystems. This paper proposes an ex-ante evaluation of the societal support for adaptation policies. A survey of 117 respondents was conducted and a Logit model utilized to analyze which predictors positively or negatively affect people's support for adaptation policies. Results suggest that the main barriers to support these policies were economic losses and low climate change concern whereas the primary motivation factor was environmental commitment. Additionally, the main socio-demographic determinants were gender, age, education and family structure. In order to improve societal support for climate change adaptation policies, implementing educational and awareness raising initiatives will be the main challenges for policy makers to overcome.

The Economic Impacts Of Climate Change On The Chilean Agricultural Sector

The agricultural sector could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Climate change impacts are related to changes in the growth period, extreme weather events, and changes in temperature and recipitation patterns, among others. All of these impacts may have significant consequences on agricultural production(Bates, et al.2008. A main issue regarding climate change impacts is related to the uncertainty associated with their occurrence. Climate change impacts can bestimated with simulation models based on several assumptions, among which the future patterns of emissions of greenhouse g asses are quite likely the most relevant, driving the development of future scenarios, i.e. plausible visions of how the future may unfold. Those scenarios are developed as storylines associated with different assumptions about climate and socioeconomic conditions and emissions, with reference figures, such as demographic projections, average global temperatures, etc.(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000). Within this context, climate change impact assessment is forced to consider multiple and interconnected sources of uncertainty in order to produce valuable information for policymakers.

Water, agriculture and ecosystem services in climate change vulnerable agricultural regions of Spain and Jordan

Irrigated agricultural landscapes generate a valuable set of ecosystem services, which are threatened by water scarcity in many aridand semi‐arid regions of the world. In the Mediterranean region, climate change is expected to decrease water availability through reduced precipitation and more frequent drought spells. At the same time, climate change, demographic and economic development and an agricultural sector highly dependent on irrigation, will raise water demand, increasing experienced water scarcity and affecting the provision of ecosystem services from water resources and agro-ecosystems. In this context, policy makers face the challenge of balancing the provision of different ecosystem services, including agricultural income and production and also water ecosystem protection.