A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

Models and tools for value systems analysis in collaborative environments

Dissertation to obtain the degree of Doctor in Electrical and Computer Engineering, specialization of Collaborative Networks

Autonomes Performance-Management in dienstorientierten Architekturen

Die Bedeutung des Dienstgüte-Managements (SLM) im Bereich von Unternehmensanwendungen steigt mit der zunehmenden Kritikalität von IT-gestützten Prozessen für den Erfolg einzelner Unternehmen. Traditionell werden zur Implementierung eines wirksamen SLMs Monitoringprozesse in hierarchischen Managementumgebungen etabliert, die einen Administrator bei der notwendigen Rekonfiguration von Systemen unterstützen. Auf aktuelle, hochdynamische Softwarearchitekturen sind diese hierarchischen Ansätze jedoch nur sehr eingeschränkt anwendbar. Ein Beispiel dafür sind dienstorientierte Architekturen (SOA), bei denen die Geschäftsfunktionalität durch das Zusammenspiel einzelner, voneinander unabhängiger Dienste auf Basis deskriptiver Workflow-Beschreibungen modelliert wird. Dadurch ergibt sich eine hohe Laufzeitdynamik der gesamten Architektur. Für das SLM ist insbesondere die dezentrale Struktur einer SOA mit unterschiedlichen administrativen Zuständigkeiten für einzelne Teilsysteme problematisch, da regelnde Eingriffe zum einen durch die Kapselung der Implementierung einzelner Dienste und zum anderen durch das Fehlen einer zentralen Kontrollinstanz nur sehr eingeschränkt möglich sind. Die vorliegende Arbeit definiert die Architektur eines SLM-Systems für SOA-Umgebungen, in dem autonome Management-Komponenten kooperieren, um übergeordnete Dienstgüteziele zu erfüllen: Mithilfe von Selbst-Management-Technologien wird zunächst eine Automatisierung des Dienstgüte-Managements auf Ebene einzelner Dienste erreicht. Die autonomen Management-Komponenten dieser Dienste können dann mithilfe von Selbstorganisationsmechanismen übergreifende Ziele zur Optimierung von Dienstgüteverhalten und Ressourcennutzung verfolgen. Für das SLM auf Ebene von SOA Workflows müssen temporär dienstübergreifende Kooperationen zur Erfüllung von Dienstgüteanforderungen etabliert werden, die sich damit auch über mehrere administrative Domänen erstrecken können. Eine solche zeitlich begrenzte Kooperation autonomer Teilsysteme kann sinnvoll nur dezentral erfolgen, da die jeweiligen Kooperationspartner im Vorfeld nicht bekannt sind und – je nach Lebensdauer einzelner Workflows – zur Laufzeit beteiligte Komponenten ausgetauscht werden können. In der Arbeit wird ein Verfahren zur Koordination autonomer Management-Komponenten mit dem Ziel der Optimierung von Antwortzeiten auf Workflow-Ebene entwickelt: Management-Komponenten können durch Übertragung von Antwortzeitanteilen untereinander ihre individuellen Ziele straffen oder lockern, ohne dass das Gesamtantwortzeitziel dadurch verändert wird. Die Übertragung von Antwortzeitanteilen wird mithilfe eines Auktionsverfahrens realisiert. Technische Grundlage der Kooperation bildet ein Gruppenkommunikationsmechanismus. Weiterhin werden in Bezug auf die Nutzung geteilter, virtualisierter Ressourcen konkurrierende Dienste entsprechend geschäftlicher Ziele priorisiert. Im Rahmen der praktischen Umsetzung wird die Realisierung zentraler Architekturelemente und der entwickelten Verfahren zur Selbstorganisation beispielhaft für das SLM konkreter Komponenten vorgestellt. Zur Untersuchung der Management-Kooperation in größeren Szenarien wird ein hybrider Simulationsansatz verwendet. Im Rahmen der Evaluation werden Untersuchungen zur Skalierbarkeit des Ansatzes durchgeführt. Schwerpunkt ist hierbei die Betrachtung eines Systems aus kooperierenden Management-Komponenten, insbesondere im Hinblick auf den Kommunikationsaufwand. Die Evaluation zeigt, dass ein dienstübergreifendes, autonomes Performance-Management in SOA-Umgebungen möglich ist. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass der entwickelte Ansatz auch in großen Umgebungen erfolgreich angewendet werden kann.

Assessing the users’ need for a spatial decision support system of smallholder farming in Kenya

Accurate data of the natural conditions and agricultural systems with a good spatial resolution are a key factor to tackle food insecurity in developing countries. A broad variety of approaches exists to achieve precise data and information about agriculture. One system, especially developed for smallholder agriculture in East Africa, is the Farm Management Handbook of Kenya. It was first published in 1982/83 and fully revised in 2012, now containing 7 volumes. The handbooks contain detailed information on climate, soils, suitable crops and soil care based on scientific research results of the last 30 years. The density of facts leads to time consuming extraction of all necessary information. In this study we analyse the user needs and necessary components of a system for decision support for smallholder farming in Kenya based on a geographical information system (GIS). Required data sources were identified, as well as essential functions of the system. We analysed the results of our survey conducted in 2012 and early 2013 among agricultural officers. The monitoring of user needs and the problem of non-adaptability of an agricultural information system on the level of extension officers in Kenya are the central objectives. The outcomes of the survey suggest the establishment of a decision support tool based on already available open source GIS components. The system should include functionalities to show general information for a specific location and should provide precise recommendations about suitable crops and management options to support agricultural guidance on farm level.

Integrated management of urban wastewater systems: a model-based approach

The main objective pursued in this thesis targets the development and systematization of a methodology that allows addressing management problems in the dynamic operation of Urban Wastewater Systems. The proposed methodology will suggest operational strategies that can improve the overall performance of the system under certain problematic situations through a model-based approach. The proposed methodology has three main steps: The first step includes the characterization and modeling of the case-study, the definition of scenarios, the evaluation criteria and the operational settings that can be manipulated to improve the system’s performance. In the second step, Monte Carlo simulations are launched to evaluate how the system performs for a wide range of operational settings combinations, and a global sensitivity analysis is conducted to rank the most influential operational settings. Finally, the third step consists on a screening methodology applying a multi-criteria analysis to select the best combinations of operational settings.

A logical approach to the management of object identifiers in non-conventional database management systems

Non-conventional database management systems are used to achieve a better performance when dealing with complex data. One fundamental concept of these systems is object identity (OID), because each object in the database has a unique identifier that is used to access and reference it in relationships to other objects. Two approaches can be used for the implementation of OIDs: physical or logical OIDs. In order to manage complex data, was proposed the Multimedia Data Manager Kernel (NuGeM) that uses a logical technique, named Indirect Mapping. This paper proposes an improvement to the technique used by NuGeM, whose original contribution is management of OIDs with a fewer number of disc accesses and less processing, thus reducing management time from the pages and eliminating the problem with exhaustion of OIDs. Also, the technique presented here can be applied to others OODBMSs. © 2011 IEEE.

Student and Faculty Perceptions of Technology’s Usefulness in Community College General Education Courses

Educational institutions of all levels invest large amounts of time and resources into instructional technology, with the goal of enhancing the educational effectiveness of the learning environment. The decisions made by instructors and institutions regarding the implementation of technology are guided by perceptions of usefulness held by those who are in control. The primary objective of this mixed methods study was to examine the student and faculty perceptions of technology being used in general education courses at a community college. This study builds upon and challenges the assertions of writers such as Prensky (2001a, 2001b) and Tapscott (1998) who claim that a vast difference in technology perception exists between generational groups, resulting in a diminished usefulness of technology in instruction. In this study, data were gathered through student surveys and interviews, and through faculty surveys and interviews. Analysis of the data used Kendall’s Tau test for correlation between various student and faculty variables in various groupings, and also typological analysis of the transcribed interview data. The analysis of the quantitative data revealed no relationship between age and perception of technology’s usefulness. A positive relationship was found to exist between the perception of the frequency of technology use and the perception of technology’s effectiveness, suggesting that both faculty members and students believed that the more technology is used, the more useful it is in instruction. The analysis of the qualitative data revealed that both faculty and students perceive technology to be useful, and that the most significant barriers to technology’s usefulness include faulty hardware and software systems,lack of user support, and lack of training for faculty. The results of the study suggest that the differences in perception of technology between generations that are proposed by Prensky may not exist when comparing adults from the younger generation with adults from the older generation. Further, the study suggests that institutions continue to invest in instructional technology, with a focus on high levels of support and training for faculty, and more universal availability of specific technologies, including web access, in class video, and presentation software. Adviser: Ronald Joekel

AUTOFLY-Aid: Flight Deck Automation Support with Dynamic 4D Trajectory Management for Responsive and Adaptive Airborne Collision Avoidance

AUTOFLY-Aid Project aims to develop and demonstrate novel automation support algorithms and tools to the flight crew for flight critical collision avoidance using “dynamic 4D trajectory management”. The automation support system is envisioned to improve the primary shortcomings of TCAS, and to aid the pilot through add-on avionics/head-up displays and reality augmentation devices in dynamically evolving collision avoidance scenarios. The main theoretical innovative and novel concepts to be developed by AUTOFLY-Aid project are a) design and development of the mathematical models of the full composite airspace picture from the flight deck’s perspective, as seen/measured/informed by the aircraft flying in SESAR 2020, b) design and development of a dynamic trajectory planning algorithm that can generate at real-time (on the order of seconds) flyable (i.e. dynamically and performance-wise feasible) alternative trajectories across the evolving stochastic composite airspace picture (which includes new conflicts, blunder risks, terrain and weather limitations) and c) development and testing of the Collision Avoidance Automation Support System on a Boeing 737 NG FNPT II Flight Simulator with synthetic vision and reality augmentation while providing the flight crew with quantified and visual understanding of collision risks in terms of time and directions and countermeasures.

Modelling spatial decisión support systems focused on the development of a data warehouse: applying software engineering

Nowadays, organizations have plenty of data stored in DB databases, which contain invaluable information. Decision Support Systems DSS provide the support needed to manage this information and planning médium and long-term ?the modus operandi? of these organizations. Despite the growing importance of these systems, most proposals do not include its total evelopment, mostly limiting itself on the development of isolated parts, which often have serious integration problems. Hence, methodologies that include models and processes that consider every factor are necessary. This paper will try to fill this void as it proposes an approach for developing spatial DSS driven by the development of their associated Data Warehouse DW, without forgetting its other components. To the end of framing the proposal different Engineering Software focus (The Software Engineering Process and Model Driven Architecture) are used, and coupling with the DB development methodology, (and both of them adapted to DW peculiarities). Finally, an example illustrates the proposal.

National five digit zip code and post office directory /

Kept up to date by addenda.

ICR water utility database system users' guide /

"EPA 814/B-96-004."

Materiel resources management : materiel logistics.

Consists of reprints of previously published articles.

Educational opportunities in the Department of Defense.

Shipping list no.: 86-182-P.

Defense industry bulletin.

Mode of access: Internet.

Operation and support costs for the Department of Defense /

Mode of access: Internet.