Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and "minimum risk distribution": a framework for population stability

In the past century, the debate over whether or not density-dependent factors regulate populations has generally focused on changes in mean population density, ignoring the spatial variance around the mean as unimportant noise. In an attempt to provide a different framework for understanding population dynamics based on individual fitness, this paper discusses the crucial role of spatial variability itself on the stability of insect populations. The advantages of this method are the following: (1) it is founded on evolutionary principles rather than post hoc assumptions; (2) it erects hypotheses that can be tested; and (3) it links disparate ecological schools, including spatial dynamics, behavioral ecology, preference-performance, and plant apparency into an overall framework. At the core of this framework, habitat complexity governs insect spatial variance. which in turn determines population stability. First, the minimum risk distribution (MRD) is defined as the spatial distribution of individuals that results in the minimum number of premature deaths in a population given the distribution of mortality risk in the habitat (and, therefore, leading to maximized population growth). The greater the divergence of actual spatial patterns of individuals from the MRD, the greater the reduction of population growth and size from high, unstable levels. Then, based on extensive data from 29 populations of the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer, four steps are used to test the effect of habitat interference on population growth rates. (1) The costs (increasing the risk of scramble competition) and benefits (decreasing the risk of inverse density-dependent predation) of egg and larval aggregation are quantified. (2) These costs and benefits, along with the distribution of resources, are used to construct the MRD for each habitat. (3) The MRD is used as a benchmark against which the actual spatial pattern of individuals is compared. The degree of divergence of the actual spatial pattern from the MRD is quantified for each of the 29 habitats. (4) Finally, indices of habitat complexity are used to provide highly accurate predictions of spatial divergence from the MRD, showing that habitat interference reduces population growth rates from high, unstable levels. The reason for the divergence appears to be that high levels of background vegetation (vegetation other than host plants) interfere with female host-searching behavior. This leads to a spatial distribution of egg batches with high mortality risk, and therefore lower population growth. Knowledge of the MRD in other species should be a highly effective means of predicting trends in population dynamics. Species with high divergence between their actual spatial distribution and their MRD may display relatively stable dynamics at low population levels. In contrast, species with low divergence should experience high levels of intragenerational population growth leading to frequent habitat-wide outbreaks and unstable dynamics in the long term. Six hypotheses, erected under the framework of spatial interference, are discussed, and future tests are suggested.

Capacity utilisation and profitability: A decomposition of short-run profit efficiency

The principal aim of this paper is to measure the amount by which the profit of a multi-input, multi-output firm deviates from maximum short-run profit, and then to decompose this profit gap into components that are of practical use to managers. In particular, our interest is in the measurement of the contribution of unused capacity, along with measures of technical inefficiency, and allocative inefficiency, in this profit gap. We survey existing definitions of capacity and, after discussing their shortcomings, we propose a new ray economic capacity measure that involves short-run profit maximisation, with the output mix held constant. We go on to describe how the gap between observed profit and maximum profit can be calculated and decomposed using linear programming methods. The paper concludes with an empirical illustration, involving data on 28 international airline companies. The empirical results indicate that these airline companies achieve profit levels which are on average US$815m below potential levels, and that 70% of the gap may be attributed to unused capacity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Saving, productivity and national income: a discrete-time geometric framework

This paper proposes an alternative geometric framework for analysing the inter-relationship between domestic saving, productivity and income determination in discrete time. The framework provides a means of understanding how low saving economies like the United States sustained high growth rates in the 1990s whereas high saving Japan did not. It also illustrates how the causality between saving and economic activity runs both ways and that discrete changes in national output and income depend on both current and previous accumulation behaviour. The open economy analogue reveals how international capital movements can create external account imbalances that enhance income growth for both borrower and lender economies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Lexicographic decomposition of chains and the concept of a planar chain

In an earlier paper [Journal of Mathematical Economics, 37 (2002) 17-38], we proved that if a preference relation on a commodity space is non-representable by a real-valued function then that chain is necessarily a long chain, a planar chain, an Aronszajn-like chain or a Souslin chain. In this paper, we study the class of planar chains, the simplest example of which is the Debreu chain (R-2, <(l)). (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A framework for extreme-event control in wastewater treatment

In this paper an approach to extreme event control in wastewater treatment plant operation by use of automatic supervisory control is discussed. The framework presented is based on the fact that different operational conditions manifest themselves as clusters in a multivariate measurement space. These clusters are identified and linked to specific and corresponding events by use of principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering. A reduced system model is assigned to each type of extreme event and used to calculate appropriate local controller set points. In earlier work we have shown that this approach is applicable to wastewater treatment control using look-up tables to determine current set points. In this work we focus on the automatic determination of appropriate set points by use of steady state and dynamic predictions. The performance of a relatively simple steady-state supervisory controller is compared with that of a model predictive supervisory controller. Also, a look-up table approach is included in the comparison, as it provides a simple and robust alternative to the steady-state and model predictive controllers, The methodology is illustrated in a simulation study.

Linear ketenimines. Variable structures of C,C-dicyanoketenimines and C,C-bis-sulfonylketenimines

C,C-Dicyanoketenimines 10a-c were generated by flash vacuum thermolysis of ketene NS-acetals 9a-c or by thermal or photochemical decomposition of alpha-azido-,beta-cyanocinnamonitrile 11. In the latter reaction, 3,3-dicyano-2-phenyl-1-azirine 12 is also formed. IR spectroscopy of the keteniminines isolated in Ar matrixes or as neat films, NMR spectroscopy of 10c, and theoretical calculations (B3LYP/6-31G*) demonstrate that these ketenimines have variable geometry, being essentially linear along the CCN-R framework in polar media (neat films and solution), but in the gas phase or Ar matrix they are bent, as is usual for ketenimines. Experiments and calculations agree that a single CN substituent as in 13 is not enough to enforce linearity, and sulfonyl groups are less effective that cyano groups in causing linearity. C,C-Bis(methylsulfonyl)ketenimines 4-5 and a C-cyano-C-(methylsulfonyl)ketenimine 15 are not linear. The compound p-O2NC6H4N=C= C(COOMe)2 previously reported in the literature is probably somewhat linearized along the CCNR moiety. A computational survey (B3LYP/6-31G*) of the inversion barrier at nitrogen indicates that electronegative C-substituents dramatically lower the barrier; this is also true of N-acyl substituents. Increasing polarity causes lower barriers. Although N-alkylbis(methylsulfonyl)ketenimines are not calculated to be linear, the barriers are so low that crystal lattice forces can induce planarity in N-methylbis(methylsulfonyl)ketenimine 3.

A framework for table driven testing of Java classes

With the advent of object-oriented languages and the portability of Java, the development and use of class libraries has become widespread. Effective class reuse depends on class reliability which in turn depends on thorough testing. This paper describes a class testing approach based on modeling each test case with a tuple and then generating large numbers of tuples to thoroughly cover an input space with many interesting combinations of values. The testing approach is supported by the Roast framework for the testing of Java classes. Roast provides automated tuple generation based on boundary values, unit operations that support driver standardization, and test case templates used for code generation. Roast produces thorough, compact test drivers with low development and maintenance cost. The framework and tool support are illustrated on a number of non-trivial classes, including a graphical user interface policy manager. Quantitative results are presented to substantiate the practicality and effectiveness of the approach. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Engaging with theories of dialogue and voice: Using Bakhtin as a framework to understand teaching and learning Indigenous Australian women's performance

In this paper I explore the Indigenous Australian women's performance classroom (hereafter ANTH2120) as a dialectic and discursive space where the location of possibility is opened for female Indigenous performers to enter into a dialogue from and between both non-Indigenous and Indigenous voices. The work of Bakhtin on dialogue serves as a useful standpoint for understanding the multiple speaking positions and texts in the ANTH2120 context. Bakhtin emphasizes performance, history, actuality and the openness of dialogue to provide an important framework for analysing multiple speaking positions and ways of making meaning through dialogue between shifting and differing subjectivities. I begin by briefly critiquing Bakhtin's "dialogic imagination" and consider the application and usefulness of concepts such as dialogism, heteroglossia and the utterance to understanding the ANTH2120 classroom as a polyphonic and discursive space. I then turn to an analysis of dialogue in the ANTH2120 classroom and primarily situate my gaze on an examination of the interactions that took place between the voices of myself as family/teacher/student and senior Yanyuwa women from the r e m o t e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y A b o r i g i n a l c o m m u n i t y o f B o r r o l o o l a as family/performers/teachers. The 2000 and 2001 Yanyuwa women's performance workshops will be used as examples of the way power is constantly shifting in this dialogue to allow particular voices to speak with authority, and for others to remain silent as roles and relationships between myself and the Yanyuwa women change. Conclusions will be drawn regarding how my subject positions and white race privilege affect who speaks, who listens and on whose terms, and further, the efficacy of this pedagogical platform for opening up the location of possibility for Indigenous Australian women to play a powerful part in the construction of knowledges about women's performance traditions.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Leaf litter decomposition of Piper aduncum, Gliricidia sepium and Imperata cylindrica in the humid lowlands of Papua New Guinea

No information is available on the decomposition and nutrient release pattern of Piper aduncum and Imperata cylindrica despite their importance in shifting cultivation systems of Papua New Guinea and other tropical regions. We conducted a litter bag study (24 weeks) on a Typic Eutropepts in the humid lowlands to assess the rate of decomposition of Piper aduncum, Imperata cylindrica and Gliricidia sepium leaves under sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas). Decomposition rates of piper leaf litter were fastest followed closely by gliricidia, and both lost 50% of the leaf biomass within 10 weeks. Imperata leaf litter decomposed much slower and half-life values exceeded the period of observation. The decomposition patterns were best explained by the lignin plus polyphenol over N ratio which was lowest for piper (4.3) and highest for imperata (24.7). Gliricidia leaf litter released 79 kg N ha(-1), whereas 18 kg N ha(-1) was immobilised in the imperata litter. The mineralization of P was similar for the three species, but piper litter released large amounts of K. The decomposition and nutrient release patterns had significant effects on the soil. The soil contained significantly more water in the previous imperata plots at 13 weeks due to the relative slow decomposition of the leaves. Soil N levels were significantly reduced in the previous imperata plots due to immobilisation of N. Levels of exchangeable K were significantly increased in the previous piper plots due to the large addition of K. It can be concluded that piper leaf litter is a significant and easily decomposable source of K which is an important nutrient for sweet potato. Gliricidia leaf litter contained much N, whereas imperata leaf litter releases relatively little nutrients and keeps the soil more moist. Gliricidia fallow is more attractive than an imperata fallow for it improves the soil fertility and produces fuelwood as additional saleable products.