A civic biology : presented in problems / by George William Hunter.

1914

Baysian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection

Agents have two forecasting models, one consistent with the unique rational expectations equilibrium, another that assumes a time-varying parameter structure. When agents use Bayesian updating to choose between models in a self-referential system, we find that learning dynamics lead to selection of one of the two models. However, there are parameter regions for which the non-rational forecasting model is selected in the long-run. A key structural parameter governing outcomes measures the degree of expectations feedback in Muth's model of price determination.

The DPRK in China's post-cold war foreign policy - a neoclassical realist analysis

Avec l’échec des négociations entre les États-Unis et la Corée du Nord, menées depuis le début des années 1990, sur la question du nucléaire, le problème est devenu graduellement l’affaire des pays voisins, tous soucieux de l’avenir de la région du sud-est asiatique. Présentée comme le seul allié de la Corée du Nord, la China a été invitée à participer à des négociations à trois, à quatre (1997-1998), et à six (2003-2007), dans l’espoir de faire entendre raison au régime isolé, mais jusqu’à maintenant, aucune des tentatives n’est parvenue à satisfaire chacun des membres à la table. Alors que la tension monte et que la politique américaine se fait de moins en moins flexible, la Chine quant à elle, continue d’encourager le retour des négociations à six (Six-Party Talks) dans l’optique de dénucléariser la péninsule coréenne, tout en travaillant à maintenir ses liens avec la Corée du Nord. Le fil conducteur de cette présente recherche est d’abord d’essayer de comprendre pourquoi la Chine continue de soutenir la Corée du Nord, fournissant dons alimentaires et financiers. L’idée est donc d’analyser, selon les principes du réalisme néoclassique, la politique étrangère de la Chine. L’hypothèse principale de cette théorie renvoie à l’idée que la distribution du pouvoir dans le système international influence la politique étrangère des États, mais que des variables au niveau de l’état et/ou de l’individu interviennent dans la formulation et l’application de celle-ci. Il est proposé ici que le lien entre l’unipolarité du système international et la politique nord-coréenne de la Chine, est façonné par des variables intermédiaires telles que : a) la perception des leaders de la distribution du pouvoir et de leur place dans le système international; b) l’idéologie du régime politique, et; c) le type d’unité responsable de la prise de décision en politique étrangère. L’analyse de chacune des variables permettra de faire la lumière sur les intérêts politiques et économiques de la Chine dans l’entretien de cette relation avec la Corée du Nord.

La influencia de los grupos protestantes evangélicos en la orientación de la política exterior estadounidense hacia el Estado de Israel durante el gobierno de George Walker Bush

Desde el segundo gobierno de George Walker Bush, estudiosos de las Relaciones Internacionales, analistas políticos, periodistas y los medios de comunicación en general, manifestaron su preocupación por el lenguaje religioso que dicho presidente usaba en sus discursos, y por la forma como las posturas religiosas del gobierno Bush estaban afectando la política exterior de los Estados Unidos. Surgieron hipótesis que indicaban una fuerte influencia evangélica en la toma de decisiones del mandatario norteamericano en los temas internacionales, sobresaliendo en estas consideraciones las relaciones entre Estados Unidos e Israel. El hecho de que las ideas religiosas se mezclaran con la política y pudiesen dirigir las relaciones entre los Estados causo bastante conmoción. Especialmente en un país donde la religión y la política se creían separadas una de la otra. Una relación digna de ser analizada en la medida en que parecía estar afectando la política de Estados Unidos hacia Medio Oriente; punto clave de los temas geopolíticos más críticos de hoy en día como lo son el terrorismo, el petróleo y el llamado “choque de civilizaciones”. La cooperación entre Estados Unidos e Israel y la política exterior estadounidense hacia el Medio Oriente fueron temas prioritarios en la agenda de la administración de George W.Bush. La cuestión clave era entonces comprobar si efectivamente dichas políticas fueron una en prioridad debido a la presión de los grupos evangélicos en el gobierno republicano de Bush hijo, o por el contrario, si la política de cooperación con Israel respondía más a una política de Estado que trasciende la coyuntura del gobierno Bush.

La influencia del marketing político en el electorado estadounidense. Un análisis a las elecciones presidenciales del 2004 : George Walker Bush Vs John Forbes Kerry

Este estudio de caso, pretende analizar el uso de las herramientas de marketing político, desde las elecciones primarias hasta la elección presidencial en el 2004 en Estados Unidos, en la que George W. Bush del Partido Republicano busca la reelección frente a su rival John F. Kerry del Partido Demócrata.

En retorisk analys av Fahrenheit 9/11 ur ett dokumentärhistoriskt perspektiv

The history of rhetorics in documentary film is a long one. The French brothers Louise and Auguste Lumiére were among the first persons who produced a documentary and their work has had a big impression in the history of documentary during the 1900 century. John Grierson has been called “the father” of documentary film. He produced films in the English speaking part of the world and he is the founder of the concept “documentary film”. Propaganda filming has a big part in the history of documentary film. Most frequently it appeard in Germany before and during the secound WW II, but propaganda films has been produced in Great Britain and USA as well as in other parts of the world. Rhetorics are of current interest today. It effects the news, papers, magazines, books and movies. The purpose with this essay is to investigate the rhetorics in Michael Moores controversial documentary of September 11th, Fahrenheit 9/11. The main question is: what rhetorical tools does Michael Moore use in order to communicate his politcal message in Fahrenheit 9/11? The rhetorical analysis includes exordium, narratio, propsitio, argumentatio and conclusio as well as ethos, logos and pathos. In order to conduct the analysis I have used Kurt Johannesson’s book Retorik eller konsten att övertyga, Maria Karlberg and Brigitte Mral’s book Heder och påverkan. Att analysera modern retorik. And at last a chapter by Brigitte Mral named Retorikanalys in the book Metoder i kommunikationeverenskap, by Mats Ekström and Larsåke Larsson. For the background about the history of documentary film I have used Barsam M. Richard, Nonfiction Film A Critical History and Bjørn Sørenssen’s book Å fange virkeligheten –Dokumentarfilmens århundre.The analysis shows that Moore uses different rhetorical tools in order to point out that George W Bush is the wrong man for the role as the president of United States of America. Some of the most effective tools that Moores uses are his own voice, pictures who awakes emotions, recordings and sharp arguments. His way of using ethos, logos and pathos is very clear. The disposal can also be distinct discern, however there are some exceptions towards the classical rhetoric. One example is that Moore doesn´t describe the arrangement of the movie in exordium.

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission in HIV-discordant couples

BACKGROUND Antiretroviral drugs have been shown to reduce risk of mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and are also widely used for post-exposure prophylaxis for parenteral and sexual exposures. Sexual transmission may be lower in couples in which one partner is infected with HIV and the other is not and the infected partner is on antiretroviral therapy (ART). OBJECTIVES To determine if ART use in an HIV-infected member of an HIV-discordant couple is associated with lower risk of HIV transmission to the uninfected partner compared to untreated discordant couples. SEARCH METHODS We used standard Cochrane methods to search electronic databases and conference proceedings with relevant search terms without limits to language. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials (RCT), cohort studies and case-control studies of HIV-discordant couples in which the HIV-infected member of the couple was being treated or not treated with ART DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Abstracts of all trials identified by electronic or bibliographic scanning were examined independently by two authors. We initially identified 3,833 references and examined 87 in detail for study eligibility. Data were abstracted independently using a standardised abstraction form. MAIN RESULTS One RCT and nine observational studies were included in the review. These ten studies identified 2,112 episodes of HIV transmission, 1,016 among treated couples and 1,096 among untreated couples. The rate ratio for the single randomised controlled trial was 0.04 [95% CI 0.00, 0.27]. All index partners in this study had CD4 cell counts at baseline of 350-550 cells/µL. Similarly, the summary rate ratio for the nine observational studies was 0.58 [95% CI 0.35, 0.96], with substantial heterogeneity (I(2)=64%). After excluding two studies with inadequate person-time data, we estimated a summary rate ratio of 0.36 [95% CI 0.17, 0.75] with substantial heterogeneity (I(2)=62%). We also performed subgroup analyses among the observational studies to see if the effect of ART on prevention of HIV differed by the index partner's CD4 cell count. Among couples in which the infected partner had ≥350 CD4 cells/µL, we estimated a rate ratio of 0.12 [95% CI 0.01, 1.99]. In this subgroup, there were 247 transmissions in untreated couples and 30 in treated couples. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS ART is a potent intervention for prevention of HIV in discordant couples in which the index partner has ≤550 CD4 cells/µL. A recent multicentre RCT confirms the suspected benefit seen in earlier observational studies and reported in more recent ones. Questions remain about durability of protection, the balance of benefits and adverse events associated with earlier therapy, long-term adherence and transmission of ART-resistant strains to partners. Resource limitations and implementation challenges must also be addressed.Counselling, support, and follow up, as well as mutual disclosure, may have a role in supporting adherence, so programmes should be designed with these components. In addition to ART provision, the operational aspects of delivering such programmes must be considered.

State-building in Iraq since 2003: the Challenges and Lessons. Jean Monnet Occasional Paper No. 12/2014

Introduction. In 2003, Iraq was invaded by the US coalition forces that ousted Saddam Hussein’s regime from power before occupying the whole country. The intension, declared by the then American George W. Bush, was to ‘build a decent and democratic society at the centre of the Middle East’ that ‘will become a place of progress and peace.’1 In 2014, three years after the withdrawal of the last American soldier, however, it is difficult to overestimate or exaggerate what is at stake. National unity and territorial integrity have never been so seriously threatened since the country is experiencing the internal fighting in its modern history. Many parts of Iraq, including the northern oil city of Kirkuk, long claimed as an integral part of the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan, are out of the control of the central government. Large areas in the north including the strategic city of Mosul were seized by the fighters of the Islamic State, an Al-Qaeda offshoot, formerly known as ISIS, who threatened to invade the Kurdistan region before being attacked by airstrikes by the US. They proclaimed a caliphate on both sides of the border with Syria, where they also control vast territory.

Res. of G.W. Gale, Sec. 19, Superior Tp. Michigan

Superior Township (Mich.) residence. Publication information: Chicago, Ill. : Everts & Stewart, 1874.

Observations on a bill to amend the laws relating to the relief of the poor in England, lately introduced into the House of Commons by James Scarlett.

Mode of access: Internet.

How Private Geo. W. Peck put down the rebellion : or, The funny experiences of a raw recruit /

Bound with the author's Peck's boss book. [Chicago], 1900.