Trend analysis in scientometrics

The thesis investigates the properties of two trends or time series which formed a:part of the Co-Citation bibliometric model "X~Ray Crystallography and Protein Determination in 1978, 1980 and 1982". This model was one of several created for the 1983 ABRC Science Policy Study which aimed to test the utility of bibliometric models in a national science policy context. The outcome of the validation part of that study proved to be especially favourable concerning the utility of trend data, which purport to model the development of speciality areas in science over time. This assessment could have important implications for the use of such data in policy formulation. However one possible problem with the Science Policy Study's conclusions was that insufficient time was available in the study for an in-depth analysis of the data. The thesis aims to continue the validation begun in the ABRC study by providing a detailed.examination of the characteristics of the data contained in the Trends numbered 11 and 44 in the model. A novel methodology for the analysis of the properties of the trends with respect to their literature content is presented. This is followed by an assessment based on questionnaire and interview data, of the ability of Trend 44 to realistically model the historical development of the field of mobile genetic elements research over time, with respect to its scientific content and the activities of its community of researchers. The results of these various analyses are then used to evaluate the strenghts and weaknesses of a trend or time series approach to the modelling of the activities of scientifiic fields. A critical evaluation of the origins of the discovered strengths and weaknesses.in the assumptions underlying the techniques used to generate trends from co-citation data is provided. Possible improvements. to the modelling techniques are discussed.

Accessibility, deprivation and rural planning policies.

Since the Second World War a range of policies have been implemented by central and local government agencies, with a view to improving accessibility to facilities, housing and employment opportunities within rural areas. It has been suggested that a lack of reasonable access to a range of such facilities and opportunities constitutes a key aspect of deprivation or disadvantage for rural residents. Despite considerable interest, very few attempts have been made to assess the nature and incidence of this disadvantage or the reaction of different sections of the population of rural areas to it. Moreover, almost all previous assessments have relied on so-called 'objective' measures of accessibility and disadvantage and failed to consider the relationship between such measures and 'subjective' measures such as individual perceptions. It is this gap in knowledge that the research described in this thesis has addressed. Following a critical review of relevant literature the thesis describes the way in which data on 'objective' and 'subjective' indicators of accessibility and behavioural responses to accessibility problems was collected, in six case study areas in Shropshire. Analysis of this data indicates that planning and other government policies have failed to significantly improve rural resident's accessibility to their basic requirements, and may in some cases have exacerbated it, and that as a result certain sections of the rural population are relatively disadvantaged. Moreover, analysis shows that .certain aspects of individual subjective' assessments of such accessibility disadvantage are significantly associated with more easily-obtained 'objective' measures. By using discriminant analysis the research demonstrates that it is possible to predict the likely levels of satisfaction with access to facilities from a range of 'objective' measures. The research concludes by highlighting the potential practical applications of such indicators in policy formulation, policy appraisal and policy evaluation.

Analysis of global compliance and implementation of the goals of international environmental treaties: A case study of the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD)

The Convention on Biodiversity (CBD) was created in 1992 to coordinate global governments to protect biological resources. The CBD has three goals: protection of biodiversity, achievement of sustainable use of biodiversity and facilitation of equitable sharing of the benefits of biological resources. The goal of protecting biological resources has remained both controversial and difficult to implement. This study focused more on the goal of biodiversity protection. The research was designed to examine how globally constructed environmental policies get adapted by national governments and then passed down to local levels where actual implementation takes place. Effectiveness of such policies depends on the extent of actual implementation at local levels. Therefore, compliance was divided and examined at three levels: global, national and local. The study then developed various criteria to measure compliance at these levels. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to analyze compliance and implementation. The study was guided by three questions broadly examining critical factors that most influence the implementation of biodiversity protection policies at the global, national and local levels. Findings show that despite an overall biodiversity deficit of 0.9 hectares per person, global compliance with the CBD goals is currently at 35%. Compliance is lowest at local levels at 14%, it is slightly better at national level at 50%, and much better at the international level 64%. Compliance appears higher at both national and international levels because compliance here is paper work based and policy formulation. If implementation at local levels continues to produce this low compliance, overall conservation outcomes can only get worse than what it is at present. There are numerous weaknesses and capacity challenges countries are yet to address in their plans. In order to increase local level compliance, the study recommends a set of robust policies that build local capacity, incentivize local resource owners, and implement biodiversity protection programs that are akin to local needs and aspirations.^

The status of Ireland's climate, 2012

Ireland’s climate is changing. This is consistent with regional and global trends which display rapid changes in many aspects of climate over the last century and the first decade of this century. The availability of high-quality climate observations is a critical starting point from which an understanding of past and emerging trends in the current climate can be developed. Such observations are vital for detecting change and providing the information needed to help manage and plan for the future in a wide range of socio-economic sectors. Observations are also essential to help build robust projections of future climate, which can in turn inform policy formulation for appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures. Such measures should help us limit the negative socio-economic impacts and position us to take advantages of opportunities offered by a changing climate. This report brings together observational information and data for over 40 climate variables and highlights changes and trends in aspects of Irish climate across the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial domains. The observations presented in this report contribute to the formulation of the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

Analysis of Global Compliance and Implementation of the Goals of International Environmental Treaties: A Case study of the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD)

The Convention on Biodiversity (CBD) was created in 1992 to coordinate global governments to protect biological resources. The CBD has three goals: protection of biodiversity, achievement of sustainable use of biodiversity and facilitation of equitable sharing of the benefits of biological resources. The goal of protecting biological resources has remained both controversial and difficult to implement. This study focused more on the goal of biodiversity protection. The research was designed to examine how globally constructed environmental policies get adapted by national governments and then passed down to local levels where actual implementation takes place. Effectiveness of such policies depends on the extent of actual implementation at local levels. Therefore, compliance was divided and examined at three levels: global, national and local. The study then developed various criteria to measure compliance at these levels. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to analyze compliance and implementation. The study was guided by three questions broadly examining critical factors that most influence the implementation of biodiversity protection policies at the global, national and local levels. Findings show that despite an overall biodiversity deficit of 0.9 hectares per person, global compliance with the CBD goals is currently at 35%. Compliance is lowest at local levels at 14%, it is slightly better at national level at 50%, and much better at the international level 64%. Compliance appears higher at both national and international levels because compliance here is paper work based and policy formulation. If implementation at local levels continues to produce this low compliance, overall conservation outcomes can only get worse than what it is at present. There are numerous weaknesses and capacity challenges countries are yet to address in their plans. In order to increase local level compliance, the study recommends a set of robust policies that build local capacity, incentivize local resource owners, and implement biodiversity protection programs that are akin to local needs and aspirations.

Fishing effort and fish yield over a 15 year period on Lake Victoria, Uganda: management implications

The National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), the Directorate of Fisheries Resources (DiFR), the Local Government fisheries staff and those from the Beach Management Units (BMUs) of the riparian districts to Lake Victoria regularly and jointly conduct Frame and Catch Assessment Surveys. The information obtained is used to guide fisheries management and development. We reveal the trends in the commercial fish catch landings and fishing effort on the Uganda side of Lake Victoria, over a 15 year period (2000-2015) and provide the underlying factors to the observed changes. The contribution of the high value large size species (Nile perch and Tilapia) to the commercial catch of Lake Victoria has significantly reduced while that of the low value small size species, Mukene has increased over a ten year (2005-2015)period. The information is intended to update and sensitize the key stakeholders on the status of the Lake Victoria fisheries. In addition, the information provided is expected to guide policy formulation and management planning by the fisheries managers at all levels including the BMUs and Landing Site Management Committees (LSMCs), the Local government fisheries staff and the Directorate of Fisheries Resources. The information is anticipated to create awareness among the lakeside fisher communities to reverse the current trend in fish declines.

Ativismo institucional e os desafios do estado : uma análise da política nacional de participação social

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciência Política, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Política, 2016.

Análisis de la participación ciudadana en la localidad de Santa Fe en el proceso de formulación del plan zonal centro de Bogotá en el periodo 2004-2007

Este trabajo de grado es un estudio de caso, del proceso participativo para la formulación del Plan Zonal Centro de Bogotá entre 2004 y 2007, con el fin de observar los efectos de la participación ciudadana de la Localidad de Santa Fe, en la formulación de una política pública. En la investigación se hace un análisis mediante las variables: contexto, las condiciones institucionales, el funcionamiento de los espacios de participación, los actores que participaron y los efectos de la participación ciudadana en el proceso decisional. Asimismo, el presente estudio de caso se valió de la teoría de la racionalidad limitada para entender las decisiones del actor público y sus límites, reconstruyendo el desarrollo del proceso participativo, para comprender la relación entre el proceso decisional, que hace parte de la formulación de la política pública, y las expectativas para tomar decisiones, que generan estos espacios de participación a los ciudadanos que participan. El presente trabajo usa herramientas conceptuales adquiridos en los programas de Ciencia Política y Gestión y Desarrollo Urbanos.

The industrial policy debate

Includes bibliography

Antecedentes para la formulación e implementación de una política para el control y la fiscalización de la contaminación atmosférica de las fuentes fijas de los sectores productivo y energético = Background information for the formulation and implementation of a policy on the regulation and control of air pollution from fixed sources in the production and energy sectors

Incluye Bibliografía

Relationship between Congress and the Executive in the formulation and implementation of foreign policy : hearings before the Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, Ninety-eighth Congress, second session.

Vol. called part 1, but no further parts.

From Cash to Electronic Payments: Microeconomic, Macroeconomic, and Policy Aspects of Retail Payment Systems

This dissertation explores three aspects of the economics and policy issues surrounding retail payments (low-value frequent payments): the microeconomic aspect, by measuring costs associated with retail payment instruments; the macroeconomic aspect, by quantifying the impact of the use of electronic rather than paper-based payment instruments on consumption and GDP; and the policy aspect, by identifying barriers that keep countries stuck with outdated payment systems, and recommending policy interventions to move forward with payments modernization. Payment system modernization has become a prominent part of the financial sector reform agenda in many advanced and developing countries. Greater use of electronic payments rather than cash and other paper-based instruments would have important economic and social benefits, including lower costs and thereby increased economic efficiency and higher incomes, while broadening access to the financial system, notably for people with moderate and low incomes. The dissertation starts with a general introduction on retail payments. Chapter 1 develops a theoretical model for measuring payments costs, and applies the model to Guyana—an emerging market in the midst of the transition from paper to electronic payments. Using primary survey data from Guyanese consumers, the results of the analysis indicate that annual costs related to the use of cash by consumers reach 2.5 percent of the country’s GDP. Switching to electronic payment instruments would provide savings amounting to 1 percent of GDP per year. Chapter 2 broadens the analysis to calculate the macroeconomic impacts of a move to electronic payments. Using a unique panel dataset of 76 countries across the 17-year span from 1998 to 2014 and a pooled OLS country fixed effects model, Chapter 2 finds that on average, use of debit and credit cards contribute USD 16.2 billion to annual global consumption, and USD 160 billion to overall annual global GDP. Chapter 3 provides an in-depth assessment of the Albanian payment cards and remittances market and recommends a set of incentives and regulations (both carrots and sticks) that would allow the country to modernize its payment system. Finally, the conclusion summarizes the lessons of the dissertation’s research and brings forward issues to be explored by future research in the retail payments area.

Hegemonia e contra-hegemonia na construção de políticas de esporte e lazer : a experiência do Consórcio Brasília = Hegemony and counter-hegemony in the process of sport and leisure policy-making : the experience of the Consortium Brasilia

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física